System–Environment Relations in the Theories of Open and Autopoietic Systems: Implications for Critical Systems Thinking

This short paper revisits Bertalanffy??s open systems theory and Luhmann??s theory of autopoietic social systems in order to highlight the linkage between systemic complexity and the carrying capacity of the environment. Being paradigmatically focused on biological complexity, Bertalanffy??s work shows this linkage to be relatively unproblematic. In contrast, Luhmann argued that autopoietic social systems are likely to develop excessive complexity which overstrains the environment??s carrying capacity. The paper synthesizes these conceptions into a framework of discretionary social decision-making aimed at preventing systemic complexity from becoming excessive. Rooted in the idea of balancing the system and the environment, this framework determines the optimal level of systemic complexity as that level which systems can maximally attain without incurring the risk of self-destruction. The system?Cenvironment balance is shown to be the general systems theory core of Ulrich??s critical systems heuristics and critical systems thinking more generally.     

Collaborative Inquiry as a Critical Systemic Approach to Improving Ethics and Governance in the Philippine National Police

Improving ethics and governance in policing is often considered an institutional function that police agencies do as ??expert?? institutions. Participation by other stakeholders may be welcome so long as police are able to control the processes and mechanisms of participation. This paper, based on research done with the Philippine National Police, argues that collaborative inquiry could be an effective critical systemic approach to participation by the wider society in police reform. This could enable both police and non-police stakeholders to work together towards mutual understanding and cooperation as equals towards better policing. This participatory approach is not meant to replace the institutional mechanisms that the police use for their own reform effort, but it is supposed to complement them. The research on which this paper is based was an attempt to design a model for collaborative inquiry at the local municipal level of policing in the Philippines, since the municipality is the lowest operational level for the Philippines?? police service. The results of that study suggest that it is possible to establish such a mechanism and make it work, in effect establishing a Close Knit Knowledge Organisation at the lowest level of operational policing.     

金融系统压力:指数化测度及其溢出效应研究

2008年全球金融危机的爆发及其冲击促使监管者更多的关注全球金融市场的关联网络特征及金融风险在各金融市场间的传导机制.本文基于全球向量自回归模型(GVAR),从关联网络的视角构建了金融压力溢出效应模型,考察信贷市场、资本市场、外汇市场、债券市场和货币市场等五个金融子市场压力在不同国家和市场间的传导及其动态演变.研究结果表明,美国是全球金融市场中金融压力主要溢出者;发达经济体主要通过其资本市场和货币市场影响我国的信贷市场、资本市场和外汇市场,而新兴经济体金融压力则主要影响我国的债券市场和货币市场.资本市场和货币市场是不同国家和金融子市场间金融压力传染的重要路径.2014年以来国际金融市场压力对我国金融市场的影响远高于金融危机时期,且资本市场和外汇市场所受影响更为显著.     

Enhancing Organisational Innovation Capability Through Systemic Action Research: A Case of a Swiss SME in the Food Industry

This paper presents detailed insights into the nature of innovation dynamics of an SME operating in the food industry. Furthermore, the paper highlights how Action Research has changed and enhanced SME??s capability to innovate. Within the exploratory action research based case study described in this article, the researchers interacted closely with one company with regards to a newly launched innovation process over a time period of more than 18 months. The analysis contributes to the fields of action research and innovation research in three respects: First, it exemplifies how systemic action research as a method can be applied on the organisational level in the private sector. Second, it demonstrates how useful action research can be for fostering the innovativeness and creativity of a company. Lastly, the analysis illustrates the extensive time horizon of an action research project.     

欧美股票市场对我国股票市场的传染效应研究——基于次贷与欧债危机背景

近年来,金融危机频频爆发且易表现出传染性,这使得金融传染引起国内外学者的高度关注.本文选取合适的动态条件相关模型研究欧美市场与A股、港股市场的条件相关性,结合内生多重结构突变模型与T检验方法划分危机传染期与平稳期,选用考虑外部影响的CCK模型研究A股、港股市场的羊群行为,随后,引入收益率分散度指标,研究两次危机的羊群行为传染渠道.研究结果表明:港股市场受两次危机传染的速度均快于A股市场,受传染的持续时间均长于A股市场,但受传染的程度均弱于A股市场:次贷危机传染程度强于欧债危机的传染程度,但传染的持续时间短于欧债危机:羊群行为传染渠道是两次危机对A股、港股市场的传染渠道之一.     

利率衍生工具运用与中国商业银行利率风险敞口

由于中国尚未爆发过银行业危机，因而如何测度银行体系风险是一个挑战。使用KMV模型测度的违约概率作为中国银行体系风险的指标。使用所测度的违约概率估算商业银行对1年、2年、5年和10年国债收益率的利率风险敞口。在此基础上研究商业银行利率衍生工具的运用是否降低了利率风险敞口。结论表明，利率衍生工具名义价值越高，利率风险敞口越低，但各个商业银行表现并不一致。国有大型商业银行降低利率风险敞口的表现略差于股份制商业银行。     

货币政策、宏观审慎监管与银行系统性风险承担

本文是系统性层面的货币政策风险承担渠道研究.在构建监管当局与商业银行的道德风险理论模型的基础上,本文选取中国上市商业银行为样本,基于CoVaR和CCA方法实证研究了中国货币政策对银行系统性风险承担的影响以及与宏观审慎监管的协调.结果发现:1)宽松的货币政策,宏观审慎政策以及高杠杆会显著提高银行系统性风险承担;2)宏观审慎与货币政策双支柱的"紧紧"组合对降低系统性风险的政策效果比"紧松"组合更优,利率政策对银行杠杆的关注不足,通过紧缩的利率政策去银行杠杆可能无效;3)利用货币政策,宏观审慎政策限制系统性风险在危机时期可能是无效的,对大型银行的效果不明显.     

Construction of Social Development Index as a Theoretical Research Practice in Action Research by Using Soft Systems Methodology

This paper provides an illustration of the application of Soft Systems Methodology to construct social development index, based on a sociological concept of development proposed by Wirutomo et al. (Pengembangan Indeks Pembangunan Sosial (IPS) Bagi Sektor Informal di Perkotaan: Menuju Kebijakan Inklusif bagi Usaha Kecil, 2011). An action research (AR) is conducted in the field of street vendor promotion program perceived to be representing the social development practice. While the improvement of fundamental elements of societal life, i.e., social structure, culture, and social process can be identified in the field of street vendor promotion program, it is believed that the same development aspects can be explored at many other development sectors. A preliminary social development index is conctructed by using a single sector development program. It is expected that through a further research agenda, a comprehensive social development profile equipped with its related index can be presented. The findings of this SSM-based AR can be considered ??as primary ??thesis?? derived from ??messes?? or ??surprising facts?? of a real world problematic situation?? as described by Stephens et al. (Syst Pract Action Res 22:463?C474, 2009). As an AR practice, this research is a research interest, instead of a problem solving interest in AR (McKay and Marshall, Inf Technol People 14:46?C59, 2001); it is also a theoretical research practice, instead of a business change practice/empirical research practice and regular business practice (Cronholm and Goldkuhl, The 2nd European Conference on Research Methods in Business and Management (ECRM 2003), 2003), and it is an interpretative actions and theory development actions as mentioned by Cronholm and Goldkuhl (The 2nd European Conference on Research Methods in Business and Management (ECRM 2003), 2003). This paper also provides an illustration of a variant relationship between P and A as introduced by McKay and Marshall (Inf Technol People 14:46?C59, 2001), which is ??there are some elements of P that overlap with some elements of A??.     

A Systemic Approach to Eliciting and Gathering the Expertise of a ‘Knowledge Guardian’: an Application of the Appreciative Inquiry Method to the Study of Classical Dressage

This paper reports on a study in which an interpretive systems-based approach to knowledge elicitation, the Appreciative Inquiry Method (AIM), is used to elicit and record the expertise of what is referred to as a ??knowledge guardian??. A ??knowledge guardian?? is an individual who is a current repository and representative of some culturally-embedded knowledge which, for generations, has been passed on through teaching and apprenticeship, and continues to be so. Such knowledge is rich, complex and precious and merits protection. The knowledge guardian in this study is a Portuguese rider and teacher of Classical Dressage. His expertise relies heavily upon the ability to ??feel?? and explain such feeling in his teaching. The view of Classical Dressage that emerges from the study emphasises the importance of the individual??s psychological development and motivation to participate in the art due to a desire to experience ??brilliance??. The paper describes the process undertaken during the elicitation sessions and provides the models developed and used to facilitate the discussion. These models (Root Definition and Conceptual Model) are of the type commonly associated with Soft Systems Methodology. The paper also provides comments on the use of AIM, the knowledge recorded about Classical Dressage and the reflections of the two collaborators involved in the study.     

Participative Methodology for Local Development: The Contribution of Engineers Without Borders from Italy and Colombia: Towards the Improvement of Water Quality in Vulnerable Communities

This paper presents a systemic methodology by which engineering is put to use in vulnerable communities through applied technological research and the main results of its application. The methodology presented corresponds to one implemented and designed by two groups of Engineers without Borders in Europe and Latin America, to integrate technical know-how with local context in communities with water problems in Colombia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The main results of this methodology are related to the improvement of the living conditions of vulnerable groups thanks to the integration of the communities?? knowledge with engineering know-how, leading to autonomous communities and engineering professors and students learning from real life problems to enrich applied sciences.     

The Nonprofit Response to the Migration Crisis: Systems-Theoretic Reflections on the Austrian and Slovak Experiences

The present paper discusses the response of the Austrian and Slovak nonprofits to the recent migration crisis. In both countries, nonprofits delivered crucial problem-solving contributions but faced serious challenges related to scaling up, capacity building, and improving coordination. Drawing on the Luhmannian systems-theoretic approach, the paper argues that these challenges gave a boost to the systemic identity of nonprofits. Triggered by the substantial inflows of public money, the systemic identity explains why nonprofits can successfully operate in the polarized societal environment and develop unique expertise which is valuable to the public sector. At the same time, the systemic identity lowers the responsiveness of nonprofits to the societal environment. The major policy implication is that this responsiveness has to be continually improved through rational discourses and stakeholder dialogues.     

品牌危机预期下的双渠道供应链动态质量与营销决策

针对一个由制造商、线上零售商和线下零售商构成的双渠道供应链系统,对品牌危机预期下的动态质量和营销决策进行研究。为此,构建了随机危机冲击下的动态双渠道供应链模型,利用贝尔曼动态规划原理分别求解了供应链成员危机前后的最优决策和利润。研究发现：与没有危机时的情形相比,危机前后制造商的质量投入和线上零售商的广告投入均低于没有危机时的情形,而危机前后线下零售商的促销决策与没有危机时的情形相同;如果危机的长期影响大于其所产生的短期影响,那么,在危机发生后制造商和线上零售商应该降低其投入水平,反之,双方在决定危机后的投入水平时还应考虑危机发生率的大小;制造商的成本分担决策不仅能够增加线上零售商的广告投入,还能促使自身增加质量投入,最终实现成员利润的帕累托改进。研究利用随机到达过程刻画了危机的发生,并放松了商誉在计划期内总是连续的假设。在此基础上,针对双渠道供应链中的品牌危机问题进行了研究。     

银行资产负债结构对金融风险传染的影响

最近的金融危机显示金融风险传染已经成为引发系统性风险的关键特征.本文致力于研究中国银行业潜在的风险传染规律和特征.首先,采用中国银行业数据,对银行间债务网络进行建模,并在模拟实验中采用了修正的偿还算法.其次,构造了三种网络、设计了四种情景,对银行间债务网络进行模拟实验,研究了银行间借贷比例、资本充足率等因素变化对银行间风险传染的单独影响和混合影响.实验结果表明:1)银行借贷比例超过5%就会引发风险传染.降低银行间借贷比例能够减少银行间的风险传染.2)资本比率保持在一个较高的水平,能够有效防范银行间风险传染.资本比例在6%~8%之间防范风险传染的效果比较明显.3)从网络结构来看,平均度对风险传染有明显影响,影响的规律由初始破产银行数量决定.     

Return and Volatility Spillovers Effects:Study of Asian Emerging Stock Markets

This paper examines the extent of contagion and interdependence across the six Asian emerging countries stock markets(e.g., Bangladesh, China, India, Malaysia, the Philippine, and South Korea) and then try to quantify the extent of the Asian emerging market fluctuations which are described by intra-regional contagion effect. These markets experienced both fast growth and key upheaval during the sample period, and thus, provide potentially rich information on the nature of border market interactions. Using the daily stock market index data from January 2002 to December 2016(breaking the 15 years data set into three sub periods; pre-crisis, crisis, and post crisis periods);particularly make attention to the global financial crisis of 2007~2008. The return and volatility spillovers are modeled through the GARCH(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity),pairwise Granger causality tests, and the forecast error variance decomposition in a generalized VAR(vector auto regression) models. This paper shows that volatility and return spillovers behave very differently over time, during the pre-crisis, crisis, and post crisis periods. Importantly, Asian emerging stock markets interaction is less before the global financial crisis period. The return and volatility spillover indices touch their respective historical peaks during the global financial crisis 2007~2008,however Bangladeshi market faces this condition in 2009~2010.     

Construction and Analysis of Common Foreign Trade Cycle Based on MS-VAR:An Empirical Study of Global Experience

This paper proves the co-movement of foreign trade in different countries or areas which belong to ten economic regions by MS-VAR model.The studies show that trade crisis lags behind economic crisis and spreads from the core of the economic crisis to its periphery which is closely-related with it.The trade crisis corresponding to the US subprime crisis spreads faster than before,which has struck worldwide foreign trade.In order to get the main factors affecting trade crisis,the authors construct composite indices which are proxies of economic growth and price levels of internal and external regions.The results of logistic and linear panel models show that economic growth affects more to trade cycle than price level.The results of panel models with dummy variable of trade crisis show that the outside economic growth do bad to the recovery of internal foreign trade during trade crisis corresponding to Mexican peso crisis,the Asian financial crisis and the Russian debt crisis,while the opposite is true during the internet bubble burst and the US subprime crisis.     

人民币NDF市场与新台币NDF市场相关性及风险溢出研究

通过构建二元正态Copula模型和SJC-Copula模型来研究不同时期人民币NDF市场和新台币NDF市场之间的相关性特征和尾部相关性的变化,接着运用CoVaR方法着重分析新台币NDF市场对人民币NDF市场的风险溢出强度.实证结果表明:两个市场在金融危机前期和金融危机时期存在明显正的相关性,只是在金融危机后期特别是2011年之后,随着人民币不断升值的预期,两市场间表现出负相关性;下尾相关程度在金融危机时也明显增强,新台币NDF市场对人民币NDF市场在三个时间段都存在着明显的溢出效应.并且在金融危机时期溢出效应最强.     

银行系统性风险研究综述

银行系统性风险的破坏力巨大,严重威胁着国家经济发展和社会安全稳定,受到了学者、投资者和监管部门的高度关注。本文从系统科学的视角,介绍了银行系统性风险的内涵和特征,并对银行系统性风险相关文献进行系统梳理和回顾。银行系统性风险未来可能的研究方向是信息交互行为对银行挤兑的影响、银行系统结构对系统性风险的影响研究、银行系统性风险的实证研究。     

实物期权视角的CAPM有效性检验

实物期权对资产定价的非线性影响会导致本质为线性定价的CAPM模型失效.本文以沪深A股2000-2014年间1503家上市公司为样本,利用市值规模、账面市值比、资本支出和总资产回报四个企业特征变量作为实物期权的代理变量,分别对个股贝塔和预期超额收益率进行实物期权调整,给出了经实物期权调整后CAPM有效的证据;而且,较之市值规模和账面市值比,资本支出和总资产回报更加能够反映实物期权对CAPM有效性的影响.此外,实物期权调整对CAPM有效性的影响对处于生命周期早期阶段的企业、高科技行业以及对股权分置改革和次贷危机后的子样本更为明显.     

Social responsibility as a next step in development of systemic behavior toward systems solutions of systemic problems of today

Data are clear: humankind is facing a global socio-economic crisis. Global bodies search for solution in ending the neoliberal monopolistic, rather than free market, economy, and in introduction of systemic behavior under the label of social responsibility. To support this effort, the research that is reported about in this contribution, suggests systemic perception of social responsibility to cause the end of abuse, strategy of promotion of social responsibility, and of suitable economic preconditions, supported by several lines of action, which everybody can trigger.     

基于自主体的经济危机模拟

基于自主体模拟的建模工具,结合序列创新理论,将创新体系引入自主体模型之中,开发了基于自主体的宏观经济过程模拟系统,并使用该系统用于对经济危机进行模拟,通过比较不同的金融政策对经济危机发生的原因和解决经济危机的办法做了初步的探究。研究结果表明,政府采取过分宽松的金融政策尽管可以在一段时间内使市场一片繁荣,社会产出快速增长,但是也会造成严重的通货膨胀,是金融危机乃至经济危机的产生的重要的原因。而在经济危机发生之后,开始可以采取适当的货币宽松政策,恢复就业、创新,提高生产技术,接着要稳定货币,防止震荡性通货膨胀。