Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.     

DNA reveals high dispersal synchronizing the population dynamics of Canada lynx

Population dynamics of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) have been of interest to ecologists for nearly sixty years. Two competing hypotheses concerning lynx population dynamics and large-scale spatial synchrony are currently debated. The first suggests that dispersal is substantial among lynx populations, and the second proposes that lynx at the periphery of their range exist in small, isolated patches that maintain cycle synchrony via correlation with extrinsic environmental factors. Resolving the nature of lynx population dynamics and dispersal is important both to ecological theory and to the conservation of threatened lynx populations: the lack of knowledge about connectivity between populations at the southern periphery of the lynx's geographic range delayed their legal listing in the United States. We test these competing hypotheses using microsatellite DNA markers and lynx samples from 17 collection sites in the core and periphery of the lynx's geographic range. Here we show high gene flow despite separation by distances greater than 3,100 km, supporting the dispersal hypothesis. We therefore suggest that management actions in the contiguous United States should focus on maintaining connectivity with the core of the lynx's geographic range.     

Ecology: living in synchrony on Greenland coasts?

Theory indicates that correlated weather may synchronize populations, but the extent to which this holds for non-identical, nonlinear systems is uncertain. Post and Forchhammer claim to have shown climate-induced synchrony for musk oxen and caribou that are separated by the Greenland ice sheet. However, logical and mathematical errors undermine their finding. Whether or not large-scale weather can be a major synchronizing factor across species remains an open question.     

Patterns of colonization in a metapopulation of grey seals

The colonization of a new habitat is a fundamental process in metapopulation biology, but it is difficult to study. The emigration of colonists from established populations might be induced by resource competition owing to high local population density. Migration distances are also important because they determine the frequency and scale of recolonization and hence the spatial scale of the metapopulation. Traditionally, these factors have been investigated with demographic approaches that are labour-intensive and are only possible in amenable species. In many cases, genetic differentiation is minimal, preventing traditional genetic approaches from identifying the source of colonists unambiguously. Here we present a bayesian approach that integrates genetic, demographic and geographic distance data. We apply the method to study the British metapopulation of grey seals, which has been growing at 6% per year over the last few decades. Our method reveals differential recruitment to three newly founded colonies and implicates density-dependent dispersal in metapopulation dynamics by using genetic data.     

Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.     

Parasites and climate synchronize red grouse populations

There is circumstantial evidence that correlated climatic conditions can drive animal populations into synchronous fluctuations in abundance. However, it is unclear whether climate directly affects the survival and fecundity of individuals, or indirectly, by influencing food and natural enemies. Here we propose that climate affects trophic interactions and could be an important mechanism for synchronizing spatially distributed populations. We show that in specific years the size of red grouse populations in northern England either increases or decreases in synchrony. In these years, widespread and correlated climatic conditions during May and July affect populations regionally and influence the density-dependent transmission of the gastrointestinal nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis, a parasite that reduces grouse fecundity. This in turn forces grouse populations into synchrony. We conclude that specific climatic events may lead to outbreaks of infectious diseases or pests that may cause dramatic, synchronized changes in the abundance of their hosts.     

豫西黄土塬农作区棕色田鼠种群动态研究

１９９２年４月—１９９５年４月,作者在河南灵宝程村黄土塬农作区对棕色田鼠种群数量进行了逐月调查．结果表明,其种群数量的季节变动明显,表现为春季３,４月份数量高,夏季７,８月份数量低,而秋季１０月份数量又高,然后又降低,呈典型的双峰型．这主要和鼠类的年龄结构、繁殖、气候因素及农事活动有关．在不同的季节,农田和果园的种群密度高低出现时期不同,农田内由于农作物的不同,样方密度也不同,这与食物条件有关,说明食物影响着棕色田鼠的分布．     

Local dispersal promotes biodiversity in a real-life game of rock-paper-scissors

One of the central aims of ecology is to identify mechanisms that maintain biodiversity. Numerous theoretical models have shown that competing species can coexist if ecological processes such as dispersal, movement, and interaction occur over small spatial scales. In particular, this may be the case for non-transitive communities, that is, those without strict competitive hierarchies. The classic non-transitive system involves a community of three competing species satisfying a relationship similar to the children's game rock-paper-scissors, where rock crushes scissors, scissors cuts paper, and paper covers rock. Such relationships have been demonstrated in several natural systems. Some models predict that local interaction and dispersal are sufficient to ensure coexistence of all three species in such a community, whereas diversity is lost when ecological processes occur over larger scales. Here, we test these predictions empirically using a non-transitive model community containing three populations of Escherichia coli. We find that diversity is rapidly lost in our experimental community when dispersal and interaction occur over relatively large spatial scales, whereas all populations coexist when ecological processes are localized.     

Patterns and processes in reef fish diversity

A central aim of ecology is to explain the heterogeneous distribution of biodiversity on earth. As expectations of diversity loss grow, this understanding is also critical for effective management and conservation. Although explanations for biodiversity patterns are still a matter for intense debate, they have often been considered to be scale-dependent. At large geographical scales, biogeographers have suggested that variation in species richness results from factors such as area, temperature, environmental stability, and geological processes, among many others. From the species pools generated by these large-scale processes, community ecologists have suggested that local-scale assembly of communities is achieved through processes such as competition, predation, recruitment, disturbances and immigration. Here we analyse hypotheses on speciation and dispersal for reef fish from the Indian and Pacific oceans and show how dispersal from a major centre of origination can simultaneously account for both large-scale gradients in species richness and the structure of local communities.     

Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community

Understanding spatial population dynamics is fundamental for many questions in ecology and conservation. Many theoretical mechanisms have been proposed whereby spatial structure can promote population persistence, in particular for exploiter-victim systems (host-parasite/pathogen, predator-prey) whose interactions are inherently oscillatory and therefore prone to extinction of local populations. Experiments have confirmed that spatial structure can extend persistence, but it has rarely been possible to identify the specific mechanisms involved. Here we use a model-based approach to identify the effects of spatial population processes in experimental systems of bean plants (Phaseolus lunatus), herbivorous mites (Tetranychus urticae) and predatory mites (Phytoseiulus persimilis). On isolated plants, and in a spatially undivided experimental system of 90 plants, prey and predator populations collapsed; however, introducing habitat structure allowed long-term persistence. Using mechanistic models, we determine that spatial population structure did not contribute to persistence, and spatially explicit models are not needed. Rather, habitat structure reduced the success of predators at locating prey outbreaks, allowing between-plant asynchrony of local population cycles due to random colonization events.     

木本克隆植物中国沙棘种群林缘扩散规律研究

通过对中国沙棘林缘扩散过程和规律进行分析,揭示了中国沙棘的克隆生长过程.结果显示:中国沙棘以年龄最大的分株为中心向两侧实施克隆扩散,形成中间分株大、密度小以及越向两侧分株越小、密度越大的双向“阶梯式”种群外貌.然而,种群向两侧的扩散并不对称,其原因在于扩散过程受到土壤水分状况的影响.向土壤水分条件较好的一侧,林缘扩散种群以分株较大、密度较高为特征,克隆生长格局倾向于“聚集型”;向土壤水分较差的一侧,林缘扩散种群以分株较小、密度较低为特征,克隆生长格局倾向于“游击型”.由此表明在不同的土壤水分状况下,中国沙棘通过克隆生长调节形成与之相适应的克隆生长格局,即觅养对策.     

Life-history traits of voles in a fluctuating population respond to the immediate environment.

Life-history traits relating to growth and reproduction vary greatly among species and populations and among individuals within populations. In vole populations, body size and age at maturation may vary considerably among locations and among years within the same location. Individuals in increasing populations are typically larger and start reproduction earlier in the spring than those in declining populations. The cause of such life-history variation within populations has been subject of much discussion. Much of the controversy concerns whether the memory of past conditions, leading to delayed effects on life-history traits, resides in the environment (for example, predators, pathogens or food) or intrinsically within populations or individuals (age distribution, physiological state, genetic or maternal effects). Here we report from an extensive field transplant experiment in which voles were moved before the breeding season between sites that differed in average overwintering body mass. Transplanted voles did not retain the characteristics of their source population, and we demonstrate an over-riding role of the immediate environment in shaping life-history traits of small rodents.     

Quantitative evidence for global amphibian population declines

Although there is growing concern that amphibian populations are declining globally, much of the supporting evidence is either anecdotal or derived from short-term studies at small geographical scales. This raises questions not only about the difficulty of detecting temporal trends in populations which are notoriously variable, but also about the validity of inferring global trends from local or regional studies. Here we use data from 936 populations to assess large-scale temporal and spatial variations in amphibian population trends. On a global scale, our results indicate relatively rapid declines from the late 1950s/early 1960s to the late 1960s, followed by a reduced rate of decline to the present. Amphibian population trends during the 1960s were negative in western Europe (including the United Kingdom) and North America, but only the latter populations showed declines from the 1970s to the late 1990s. These results suggest that while large-scale trends show considerable geographical and temporal variability, amphibian populations are in fact declining--and that this decline has been happening for several decades.     

Strong population substructure is correlated with morphology and ecology in a migratory bat

Examining patterns of inter-population genetic diversity can provide valuable information about both historical and current evolutionary processes affecting a species. Population genetic studies of flying and migratory species such as bats and birds have traditionally shown minimal population substructure, characterized by high levels of gene flow between populations. In general, strongly substructured mammalian populations either are separated by non-traversable barriers or belong to terrestrial species with low dispersal abilities. Species with female philopatry (the tendency to remain in or consistently return to the natal territory) might show strong substructure when examined with maternally inherited mitochondrial DNA, but this substructure generally disappears when biparentally inherited markers are used, owing to male-mediated gene flow. Male-biased dispersal is considered typical for mammals, and philopatry in both sexes is rare. Here we show strong population substructure in a migratory bat species, and philopatry in both sexes, as indicated by concordance of nuclear and mtDNA findings. Furthermore, the genetic structure correlates with local biomes and differentiation in wing morphology. There is therefore a close correlation of genetic and morphological differentiation in sympatric subspecific populations of this mammalian species.     

Inference of human population history from individual whole-genome sequences

The history of human population size is important for understanding human evolution. Various studies have found evidence for a founder event (bottleneck) in East Asian and European populations, associated with the human dispersal out-of-Africa event around 60 thousand years (kyr) ago. However, these studies have had to assume simplified demographic models with few parameters, and they do not provide a precise date for the start and stop times of the bottleneck. Here, with fewer assumptions on population size changes, we present a more detailed history of human population sizes between approximately ten thousand and a million years ago, using the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent model applied to the complete diploid genome sequences of a Chinese male (YH), a Korean male (SJK), three European individuals (J. C. Venter, NA12891 and NA12878 (ref. 9)) and two Yoruba males (NA18507 (ref. 10) and NA19239). We infer that European and Chinese populations had very similar population-size histories before 10-20?kyr ago. Both populations experienced a severe bottleneck 10-60?kyr ago, whereas African populations experienced a milder bottleneck from which they recovered earlier. All three populations have an elevated effective population size between 60 and 250?kyr ago, possibly due to population substructure. We also infer that the differentiation of genetically modern humans may have started as early as 100-120?kyr ago, but considerable genetic exchanges may still have occurred until 20-40?kyr ago.     

Rapid spread of an inherited incompatibility factor in California Drosophila

In Drosophila simulans in California, an inherited cytoplasmic incompatibility factor reduces egg hatch when infected males mate with uninfected females. The infection is spreading at a rate of more than 100 km per year; populations in which the infection was rare have become almost completely infected within three years. Analyses of the spread using estimates of selection in the field suggest dispersal distances far higher than those found by direct observation of flies. Hence, occasional long-distance dispersal, possibly coupled with local extinction and recolonization, may be important to the dynamics. Incompatibility factors that can readily spread through natural populations may be useful for population manipulation and important as a post-mating isolating mechanism.     

Population density drives the local evolution of a threshold dimorphism

Evolution can favour more than one reproductive tactic among conspecifics of the same sex. Under the conditional evolutionarily stable strategy, individuals adopt the tactic that generates the highest fitness return for their status: large males guard females, whereas small males sneak copulations. Tactics change at the status at which fitness benefits switch from favouring one tactic to favouring the alternative. This 'switchpoint' is expressed in many species as a threshold between divergent morphologies. Environmental and demographic parameters that influence the relative fitness of male tactics are predicted to determine a population's switchpoint and consequently whether the population is monomorphic or dimorphic. Here we show threshold evolution in the forceps dimorphism of the European earwig Forficula auricularia and document the transition from completely monomorphic to classical male-dimorphic populations over a distance of only 40 km. Because the superior fighting ability of the dominant morph will be more frequently rewarded at high encounter rates, population density is likely to be a key determinant of the relative fitness of the alternative tactics, and consequently the threshold. We show that, as predicted, population density correlates strongly with the shift in threshold, and that this factor drives the local evolution of the male dimorphism in these island populations. Our data provide evidence for the origin of phenotypic diversity within populations, through the evolution of a switchpoint in a conditional strategy that has responded to local population density.     

Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance

It is now clear that fished populations can fluctuate more than unharvested stocks. However, it is not clear why. Here we distinguish among three major competing mechanisms for this phenomenon, by using the 50-year California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) larval fish record. First, variable fishing pressure directly increases variability in exploited populations. Second, commercial fishing can decrease the average body size and age of a stock, causing the truncated population to track environmental fluctuations directly. Third, age-truncated or juvenescent populations have increasingly unstable population dynamics because of changing demographic parameters such as intrinsic growth rates. We find no evidence for the first hypothesis, limited evidence for the second and strong evidence for the third. Therefore, in California Current fisheries, increased temporal variability in the population does not arise from variable exploitation, nor does it reflect direct environmental tracking. More fundamentally, it arises from increased instability in dynamics. This finding has implications for resource management as an empirical example of how selective harvesting can alter the basic dynamics of exploited populations, and lead to unstable booms and busts that can precede systematic declines in stock levels.     

自适应细菌觅食算法在优化问题中的应用

细菌觅食算法在求解优化问题时,以固定的步长进行趋向操作,同时以固定概率对细菌个体进行随机驱散操作,虽然可以一定程度上增加种群多样性,但是在进化后期容易使优秀的个体流失,影响算法的寻优质量.针对上述问题,论文提出步长自适应调整和驱散概率自适应调整两项改进策略,分别根据算法进化程度和细菌个体的能量值动态调整趋向操作的步长和驱散操作的概率,从而使算法在保证种群多样性的前提下,保持细菌个体具有较高觅食能力,促进算法局部搜索和全局优化的平衡.对标准测试函数和TSP问题的测试结果表明:基于自学习的细菌觅食算法具有较强的全局寻优能力,适合求解高维复杂优化问题.     

贵州乌蒙山区耕地与人口及经济空间变化探讨

在地理信息系统(GIS)技术的支持下,根据贵州省相关统计资料,分析了乌蒙山区从1990—2006年近20年的耕地与人口、经济的相对变化率空间分布,并引入某一特定土地利用类型相对变化率公式,对其变化趋势进行对比分析。同时引入回归分析这一数理统计方法,分析得出耕地资源受人口因素比受经济因素影响相对较大。因此,协调好人口与耕地的关系,即严格控制人口增长的同时促进耕地资源向集约化发展,是地方实施可持续发展的保障之一。