菊方翅网蝽在南京分布及其对中国的风险分析

【目的】了解菊方翅网蝽在南京的分布及危害情况,并确定其在中国的潜在适生分布区和风险大小,为菊方翅网蝽的防控提供参考。【方法】采用实地踏查的方式对南京市8个主城区的公园、广场、绿道等进行调查;采用MaxEnt生态位模型,结合地理信息系统(ArcGIS)预测菊方翅网蝽在中国的潜在适生区;采用多指标综合评价法,从传入的可能性、定殖的可能性、扩散的可能性、受害寄主的经济重要性和危险性管理难度方面,对菊方翅网蝽在中国的入侵风险进行定量和定性分析。【结果】在南京8个主城区均发现有菊方翅网蝽入侵,主要危害菊科杂草,在菊花上危害较轻;预测菊方翅网蝽在中国的潜在适生区约占中国国土面积的40%;菊方翅网蝽在外来入侵有害生物多指标综合评价体系中得分为2.05,属高度风险有害生物。【结论】菊方翅网蝽在南京市已普遍发生,中国潜在适生范围广、风险较大,应加强对该虫的监测,避免进一步扩散。     

Distribution and risk factors of hand,foot, and mouth disease in Changchun,northeastern China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease （HFMD） is a public health problem, and there have been increasing numbers of outbreaks in mainland China since 2008. Over 17,000 HFMD cases have been reported in Changchun between 2008 and 2011. This study characterized the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease and iden- tified the risk factors for HFMD. The main findings were as follows： （i） there were significant differences in HFMD incidence among age groups, with 86.8 % of reported cases in children younger than 5 years old, and boys showed a higher incidence than girls （〈6 years）; （ii） The disease affected the whole region and spanned a large geographic area, but there was a higher incidence in urban areas （median = 242 per 10,000 persons） and urban-rural border areas （median = 135 per 10,000 persons）, compared with rural areas （median = 75 per 10,000 persons）; and （iii） the incidence of HFMD in Changchun was significantly asso- ciated with the distance to the nearest freeway, GDP per capita, and the type of township.     

Distribution and risk factors of hand,foot, and mouth disease in Changchun,northeastern China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health problem, and there have been increasing numbers of outbreaks in mainland China since 2008. Over 17,000 HFMD cases have been reported in Changchun between 2008 and 2011. This study characterized the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease and identified the risk factors for HFMD. The main findings were as follows: (i) there were significant differences in HFMD incidence among age groups, with 86.8 % of reported cases in children younger than 5 years old, and boys showed a higher incidence than girls (<6 years); (ii) The disease affected the whole region and spanned a large geographic area, but there was a higher incidence in urban areas (median = 242 per 10,000 persons) and urban–rural border areas (median = 135 per 10,000 persons), compared with rural areas (median = 75 per 10,000 persons); and (iii) the incidence of HFMD in Changchun was significantly associated with the distance to the nearest freeway, GDP per capita, and the type of township.     

中国儿童精神发育迟滞致病生物因素的Meta分析

评价近20多年来(1992—2016)中国儿童精神发育迟滞(Mental retardation,MR)发病状况与病因,为MR预防和干预提供基础资料。以精神发育迟滞或智力低下为关键词,以风险因素和病例-对照为联合关键词,检索中国期刊全文数据库、维普数据库和万方数据库有关MR的研究论文。对筛选的文献,采用Revman软件(version 5.0)合并分析筛选出的数据。共纳入相关文献486篇,按照标准筛选出15篇文献,涉及MR儿童7329例,正常对照7511例。数据分析结果表明,在发病风险因素中,新生儿体重低下、MR家族史和早产具有异质性,而产时窒息和父母近亲结婚具有较高的一致性。Meta分析显示MR各因素合并比值依次为:MR家族史(9.90)、产时窒息(7.73)、父母近亲结婚(6.36)、难产(5.60)、早产(4.36)和出生时低体重(3.08)。近20多年来,中国儿童MR发生影响因素中,家族性遗传仍然是高风险因素,提示积极开展遗传咨询和指导有助于降低MR的发生;其次,产时因素是另一大类风险因素,提高医务人员素质,增强育龄夫妇保健意识,加强围产期孕妇的监护,将会有效降低后天因素导致MR的发生。     

Polymorphisms in genes involved in folate metabolism as maternal risk factors for Down syndrome in China

Objective： To explore the relationship between genetic polymorphisms in methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase （MTHFR）, methionine synthase reductase （MTRR）, the central enzymes in folate metabolism that affects DNA methylation and synthesis, and the risk of Down syndrome in China. Methods： Genomic DNA was isolated from the peripheral lymphocytes of 64 mothers of children with Down syndrome and 70 age matched control subjects. Polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism were used to examine the polymorphisms of MTHFR 677C→T, MTRR 66A→G and the relationship between these genotypes and the risk of Down syndrome was analyzed. Results： The results show that the MTHFR 677C→T polymorphism is more prevalent among mothers of children with Down syndrome than among control mothers, with an odds ratio of 3.78 （95% confidence interval （CI）, 1.78-8.47）. In addition, the homozygous MTRR 66A→G polymorphism was independently associated with a 5.2-fold increase in estimated risk （95% CI, 1.90-14.22）. The combined presence of both polymorphisms was associated with a greater risk of Down syndrome than the presence of either alone, with an odds ratio of 6.0 （95% CI, 2.058-17.496）. The two polymorphisms appear to act without a multiplicative interaction. Conclusion： MTHFR and MTRR gene mutation alleles are related to Down syndrome, and CT, TT and GG gene mutation types increase the risk of Down syndrome.     

District prediction of cholera risk in China based on environmental factors

The epidemics of cholera are impacted by many climatic and environmental factors such as precipitation, temperature, elevation and so on. The paper analyzed the suitable degree of V. cholerae in China using MaxEnt based on some geographic and climatic factors, and predicted the cholera risk in each district of China according to the suitable degree. The result shows that the areas in coastal southeast, central China and western Sichuan Basin are relatively suitable for V. cholerae and the suitable degree is higher in the Xinjiang Basin than in surrounding areas. The variables of precipitation, temperature and DEM are three main environmental risky factors that affecting the distribution of cholera in China. The variables of relative humidity, the distance to the sea and air pressure also have impacts on cholera, but sunshine duration and drainage density have little impact. The AUC value of MaxEnt based model is above 0.9 which indicates a high accuracy.     

南京地区第四系主要地层类型及分层探讨

南京地区地形地貌复杂,第四系分布变化大,在归纳南京地区第四纪沉积环境的基础上,总结了不同地貌和地质单元的地层层序特征。根据地层的成因和工程性质,结合国家规范中的地层分类原则,提出了统一分层的方法和统一的地层代号,将该地区第四系划分为填土、新近沉积土、一般沉积土和老沉积土等4个大层和若干亚层,同时提供了各层土的基本物理力学性质、典型剖面。对今后的勘察研究提出了建议。     

我国城市换房旅游的现状、问题及对策

随着我国旅游业的日益蓬勃发展,一种自助、互助的新旅游形式--城市换房旅游应运而生,并受到越来越多国内旅游者的关注.对换房旅游的概念、内涵及缘起、发展现状等方面进行了分析,发现安全、换房配置、中介、法律保障等是制约我国城市换房旅游发展的因素,在此基础上有针对性地提出了建立诚信体系、规范市场管理、引导换房中介机构、确立法律保障体系等进一步引导、规范和完善我国换房旅游市场的对策.     

南京市几种行道树年轮重金属元素含量的变化

通过对南京市区干道行道树3个树种树木年轮中重金属元素Cd、Cr、Cu、Fe、Mn、Ni、Pb、Ti、Zn等9种元素的含量分析,发现自20世纪60年代以来,南京市行道树树木年轮中重金属元素含量总体上均表现出随时间逐渐上升的趋势,特别从1990年开始,南京市行道树树木年轮重金属元素含量的增长规律与南京市机动车的拥有量的变化规律表现出极显著的正相关关系,说明南京市机动车拥有量的增加应该是城市环境污染的主要因素之一。对比分析还发现,元素Cd、Ni、Pb、Zn增长幅度最为显著,可用于环境重金属监测。     

四川5·12地震灾区滑坡堰塞坝溃决灾害风险评估

四川5·12地震造成大量山体崩塌和滑坡,在灾区河流上形成了上百个雍塞体和堰塞湖,其中比较大的有34个,这些不同规模的地震堰塞湖的稳定性和溃决风险成为最严重的地震次生灾害,对于这些堰塞坝的处理需要进行科学地评估.对四川地震堰塞湖的比较研究发现,流域面积很大(大于5000平方公里)的河流,堰塞体很难形成完全堵江的堰塞湖,不用担心堵溃风险;流域面积很小(小于300平方公里)的河流,径流量很小,相对库容较大,暂时不存在溃决风险,甚至可以保留下来加以利用;而对那些中等流域的河流,堰塞湖的相对库容较小,在连续暴雨情况下容易发生漫溢溃决,才是应该关注的重点.     

3D virtual reconstruction of the Pleistocene cheetah skull from the Tangshan, Nanjing, China

The development of computer tomography and image processing has made it possible to establish virtual 3D reconstruction and non-invasive dissection of fossil specimens. We used these methods to reconstruct a virtual 3D skull of a Pleistocene cheetah skull from the Tuozi cave, Tangshan, Nanjing, and virtually dissected it for anatomic studies, and measured the volumes of different parts of the endocranium. The endocranium of the cheetah skull has showed that its frontal sinus is beehive-like, the frontal lobe of cerebra is relatively large but the temporal lobe is relatively small, its cerebral sulcus and gyrus are more complicated than those of the domestic cat, similar to those of the domestic dog, but simpler than those of giant panda, pig, cattle and horse. The technology of virtual 3D reconstruction and non-invasive dissection of fossil specimens can extend the morphological study from the exterior to the interior, and it can also help to study fragile specimens and virtually backup rare and precious specimens.     

3D virtual reconstruction of the Pleistocene cheetah skull from the Tangshan, Nanjing, China

The development of computer tomography and image processing has made it possible to establish virtual 3D reconstruction and non-invasive dissection of fossil specimens. We used these methods to reconstruct a virtual 3D skull of a Pleistocene cheetah skull from the Tuozi cave, Tangshan, Nanjing, and virtually dissected it for anatomic studies, and measured the volumes of different parts of the endocranium. The endocranium of the cheetah skull has showed that its frontal sinus is beehive-like, the frontal lobe of cerebra is relatively large but the temporal lobe is relatively small, its cerebral sulcus and gyrus are more complicated than those of the domestic cat, similar to those of the domestic dog, but simpler than those of giant panda, pig, cattle and horse. The technology of virtual 3D reconstruction and non-invasive dissection of fossil specimens can extend the morphological study from the exterior to the interior, and it can also help to study fragile specimens and virtually backup rare and precious specimens.     

南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与气象因子的关系

利用2005年1月1日-2008年12月31日南京市逐日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数资料和同期气象资料,研究了气象要素变化对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响.结果表明:南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡人数冬季最高,其次是春季,秋季和夏季较少;南京市逐日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数对气象要素变化的响应存在滞后性,春季滞后6-7 d,夏秋季滞后8-10 d,冬季滞后2-5 d;对风寒指数响应的滞后响应时间,春季7-8 d,夏季和秋季相关弱,冬季2-3 d;前期的空气污染和后期的剧烈降温叠加,可能是南京冬季呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的重要诱因;春季随着气温的回升,空气污染程度减轻,患者对气温变化的耐受性也延长了,但响应敏感性比冬季增强了;通过逐步回归,建立了冬季和春季南京呼吸系统疾病的死亡人数预报方程.     

我国住房抵押贷款提前还贷行为研究

随着我国住房分配货币化的展开,居民对住房抵押贷款的需求量迅速扩大,住房抵押贷款过程中也出现了许多问题,其中以提前还贷风险为核心问题。特别由于近几年在上海、广东、江苏等地均发生了大规模的提前还贷现象,给各商业银行带来较大的损失,影响了它们的正常经营活动,使得各商业银行开始重视这一现象,究其原因当然有我国特殊的背景,比如制度因素的变化、个人的理财偏好等原因,但本质还是住房抵押贷款业务发展到一个阶段的正常现象。本文对提前还贷风险的具体内容进行了一个系统而深入的探讨,提出了目前我国商业银行应对提前还贷风险的新思路。     

南靖和溪南亚热带雨林林隙内树种更新初步研究

通过对南靖南亚热带雨林中林隙和非林隙林分的研究调查，初步分析了主要树种在林隙内外的数量特征、树种在林隙内的空间分布与数量和生长状况的关系。由于受光照条件和林隙边缘植物的影响，决定林隙区域内土壤种子库种子萌发、幼苗生长、发育，植物种群数量分布等特征，最终影响到森林的更新。     

南京市不同功能区城市林业土壤有机碳含量与分布

为了解城市化过程中人为活动对城市林业土壤性质及土壤碳库的影响,以南京市土壤为对象,测定了7类功能区城市林业土壤0～30 cm土层的总有机碳(SOC)、溶解有机碳(DOC)、微生物量碳(MBC)、易氧化态碳(ROC)和轻组有机碳(LFOC)的含量,分析了城市林业土壤有机碳的分布规律及其相互关系。结果表明:城市林业土壤表层(0～10 cm)活性有机碳富集特征明显,土壤活性有机碳含量随着土层加深而减小,人为干扰对土壤有机碳含量影响较大; 城郊天然林土壤积累了较高含量的ROC和MBC,道路绿化带土壤由于交通源有机物质的输入,SOC、DOC、LFOC含量较高。人类活动频繁的居民区、公园和校园的土壤活性有机碳各组分含量多处于较低水平。研究表明,土壤总有机碳与各活性有机碳之间有显著相关关系。     

Bayesian optimization algorithm-based methods searching for risk/protective factors

The risks of developing complex diseases are likely to be determined by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which are the most common form of DNA variations. Rapidly developing genotyping technologies have made it possible to assess the influence of SNPs on a particular disease. The aim of this paper is to identify the risk/protective factors of a disease, which are modeled as a subset of SNPs (with specified alleles) with the maximum odds ratio. On the basis of risk/protective factor and the relationship between nucleotides and amino acids, two novel risk/protective factors (called k-relaxed risk/protective factors and weighted-relaxed risk/protective factors) are proposed to consider more complex disease-associated SNPs. However, the enormous amount of possible SNPs interactions presents a mathematical and computational challenge. In this paper, we use the Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA) to search for the risk/protective factors of a particular disease. Determining the Bayesian network (BN) structure is NP-hard; therefore, the binary particle swarm optimization was used to determine the BN structure. The proposed algorithm was tested on four datasets. Experimental results showed that the algorithm proposed in this paper is a promising method for discovering SNPs interactions that cause/prevent diseases.     

信息安全风险因素分析的模糊群决策方法研究

引入模糊理论和群体决策方法对决策试验与评价实验室(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory,DE-MATEL)分析方法进行扩展,探讨了一种新的信息安全风险分析方法,采用这种方法对信息安全风险的影响因素进行辨识,实现定性定量相结合的信息安全风险因素的分析与评估,为进一步进行风险分析并有针对性地制定安全策略提供决策依据。     

模拟林窗光照条件对南亚热带雨林土壤种子库幼苗萌发的影响

2002～2003年研究了模拟林窗光照条件对福建南靖和溪南亚热带雨林土壤种子库幼苗萌发的影响.结果显示:和溪南亚热带雨林土壤种子库萌发的乔灌木及木质藤本幼苗的种类有43种,其优势成分香楠(Randia canthioides)、三叉苦(Euodia lepta)、山油麻(Trema dielsiana)、山黄麻(Trema orientalis)、楤木(Aralia chinensis)等为先锋物种,杜茎山(Maesa japonica)为林下植物,榕属植物(Ficus)生态位较独特.在数量上,春季最高(1 391株/m2),秋季次之(1 116株/m2),夏季(940株/m2)和冬季(930株/m2)最低;在垂直分布上,土壤种子库0～2 cm与2～5 cm两个层次在种类组成上是一致的,对于同个物种一般上层数量明显高于下层;在出苗顺序上,各物种在不同季节的出苗顺序基本一致,白楸(Mallotuspaniculatus)、三叉苦、山黄麻、盐肤木(Rhus chinensis)、山乌桕(Sapium discolor)、楤木等植物一般在萌发实验开始的早期出苗,香楠、笔管榕(Ficus virens)、凸脉榕(Ficus nervosa)、山油麻、黄毛榕(Ficus fulva)、玉叶金花(Psychotriapubescens)、野牡丹(Melastoma candidum)等在中期和晚期出苗,杜茎山、拟赤杨(Alniphyllum fortunei)、雅榕(Ficus concinna)、红栲(Castanopsis hystrix)等一般在萌发实验晚期出苗.