Spatial synchronization of vole population dynamics by predatory birds

Northern vole populations exhibit large-scale, spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such cases of population synchrony provide excellent opportunities for distinguishing between local intrinsic and regional extrinsic mechanisms of population regulation. Analyses of large-scale survey data and theoretical modelling have indicated several plausible synchronizing mechanisms. It is difficult, however, to determine the most important one without detailed data on local demographic processes. Here we combine results from two field studies in southeastern Norway--one identifies local demographic mechanisms and landscape-level annual synchrony among 28 enclosed experimental populations and the other examines region-level multi-annual synchrony in open natural populations. Despite fences eliminating predatory mammals and vole dispersal, the growth rates of the experimental populations were synchronized and moreover, perfectly linked with vole abundance in the region. The fates of 481 radio-marked voles showed that bird predation was the synchronizing mechanism. A higher frequency of risky dispersal movements in slowly growing populations appeared to accelerate predation rate. Thus, dispersal may induce a feedback-loop between predation and population growth that enhances synchrony.     

Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.     

Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States

A central question in population ecology is the role of 'exogenous' environmental factors versus density-dependent 'endogenous' biological factors in driving changes in population numbers. This question is also central to infectious disease epidemiology, where changes in disease incidence due to behavioural or environmental change must be distinguished from the nonlinear dynamics of the parasite population. Repeated epidemics of primary and secondary syphilis infection in the United States over the past 50 yr have previously been attributed to social and behavioural changes. Here, we show that these epidemics represent a rare example of unforced, endogenous oscillations in disease incidence, with an 8-11-yr period that is predicted by the natural dynamics of syphilis infection, to which there is partially protective immunity. This conclusion is supported by the absence of oscillations in gonorrhoea cases, where a protective immune response is absent. We further demonstrate increased synchrony of syphilis oscillations across cities over time, providing empirical evidence for an increasingly connected sexual network in the United States.     

Genetic relationships among Chinese and American isolates of Phytophthora sojae assessed by RAPD markers

The genetic diversity of three geographic populations of Phytophthora sojae from China and the United States was determined using random amplified polymorphic DNA （RAPD）. The purpose was to explore genetic relationships among Chinese and American isolates of the organism. 21 random primers were selected among 200 random primers screened. A total of 223 reproducible RAPD fragments were scored among 111 individuals, of which 199 （89.23%） were polymorphic. Analysis of genetic variation showed that there existed higher genetic variation in the United States population in comparison to the Chinese populations. Nei＇s genetic identity and principal component analysis indicated that the populations of Fujian and United States are closer to each other than to Heilongjiang populations. Shannon-Wiener diversity index revealed that the United States populations have a higher genetic di- versity than that of Chinese populations. These data are in support of the hypothesis that P. sojae in the United States might not have been introduced from China.     

Dynamic biogeography and conservation of endangered species

As one moves from the core to the periphery of a species' geographical range, populations occupy less favourable habitats and exhibit lower and more variable densities. Populations along the periphery of the range tend to be more fragmented and, as a result, are less likely to receive immigrants from other populations. A population's probability of extinction is directly correlated with its variability and inversely correlated with density and immigration rate. This has led to the prediction that, when a species becomes endangered, its geographical range should contract inwards, with the core populations persisting until the final stages of decline. Convinced by these logical but untested deductions, conservation biologists and wildlife managers have been instructed to avoid the range periphery when planning conservation strategies or allocating resources for endangered species. We have analysed range contraction in 245 species from a broad range of taxonomic groups and geographical regions. Here we report that observed patterns of range contraction do not support the above predictions and that most species examined persist in the periphery of their historical geographical ranges.     

Adaptation varies through space and time in a coevolving host-parasitoid interaction

One of the central challenges of evolutionary biology is to understand how coevolution organizes biodiversity over complex geographic landscapes. Most species are collections of genetically differentiated populations, and these populations have the potential to become adapted to their local environments in different ways. The geographic mosaic theory of coevolution incorporates this idea by proposing that spatial variation in natural selection and gene flow across a landscape can shape local coevolutionary dynamics. These effects may be particularly strong when populations differ across productivity gradients, where gene flow will often be asymmetric among populations. Conclusive empirical tests of this theory have been particularly difficult to perform because they require knowledge of patterns of gene flow, historical population relationships and local selection pressures. We have tested these predictions empirically using a model community of bacteria and bacteriophage (viral parasitoids of bacteria). We show that gene flow across a spatially structured landscape alters coevolution of parasitoids and their hosts and that the resulting patterns of adaptation can fluctuate in both space and time.     

Patterns of colonization in a metapopulation of grey seals

The colonization of a new habitat is a fundamental process in metapopulation biology, but it is difficult to study. The emigration of colonists from established populations might be induced by resource competition owing to high local population density. Migration distances are also important because they determine the frequency and scale of recolonization and hence the spatial scale of the metapopulation. Traditionally, these factors have been investigated with demographic approaches that are labour-intensive and are only possible in amenable species. In many cases, genetic differentiation is minimal, preventing traditional genetic approaches from identifying the source of colonists unambiguously. Here we present a bayesian approach that integrates genetic, demographic and geographic distance data. We apply the method to study the British metapopulation of grey seals, which has been growing at 6% per year over the last few decades. Our method reveals differential recruitment to three newly founded colonies and implicates density-dependent dispersal in metapopulation dynamics by using genetic data.     

Local dispersal promotes biodiversity in a real-life game of rock-paper-scissors

One of the central aims of ecology is to identify mechanisms that maintain biodiversity. Numerous theoretical models have shown that competing species can coexist if ecological processes such as dispersal, movement, and interaction occur over small spatial scales. In particular, this may be the case for non-transitive communities, that is, those without strict competitive hierarchies. The classic non-transitive system involves a community of three competing species satisfying a relationship similar to the children's game rock-paper-scissors, where rock crushes scissors, scissors cuts paper, and paper covers rock. Such relationships have been demonstrated in several natural systems. Some models predict that local interaction and dispersal are sufficient to ensure coexistence of all three species in such a community, whereas diversity is lost when ecological processes occur over larger scales. Here, we test these predictions empirically using a non-transitive model community containing three populations of Escherichia coli. We find that diversity is rapidly lost in our experimental community when dispersal and interaction occur over relatively large spatial scales, whereas all populations coexist when ecological processes are localized.     

Rapid spread of an inherited incompatibility factor in California Drosophila

In Drosophila simulans in California, an inherited cytoplasmic incompatibility factor reduces egg hatch when infected males mate with uninfected females. The infection is spreading at a rate of more than 100 km per year; populations in which the infection was rare have become almost completely infected within three years. Analyses of the spread using estimates of selection in the field suggest dispersal distances far higher than those found by direct observation of flies. Hence, occasional long-distance dispersal, possibly coupled with local extinction and recolonization, may be important to the dynamics. Incompatibility factors that can readily spread through natural populations may be useful for population manipulation and important as a post-mating isolating mechanism.     

Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance

It is now clear that fished populations can fluctuate more than unharvested stocks. However, it is not clear why. Here we distinguish among three major competing mechanisms for this phenomenon, by using the 50-year California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) larval fish record. First, variable fishing pressure directly increases variability in exploited populations. Second, commercial fishing can decrease the average body size and age of a stock, causing the truncated population to track environmental fluctuations directly. Third, age-truncated or juvenescent populations have increasingly unstable population dynamics because of changing demographic parameters such as intrinsic growth rates. We find no evidence for the first hypothesis, limited evidence for the second and strong evidence for the third. Therefore, in California Current fisheries, increased temporal variability in the population does not arise from variable exploitation, nor does it reflect direct environmental tracking. More fundamentally, it arises from increased instability in dynamics. This finding has implications for resource management as an empirical example of how selective harvesting can alter the basic dynamics of exploited populations, and lead to unstable booms and busts that can precede systematic declines in stock levels.     

Stage-structured cycles promote genetic diversity in a predator-prey system of Daphnia and algae

Competition theory predicts that population fluctuations can promote genetic diversity when combined with density-dependent selection. However, this stabilizing mechanism has rarely been tested, and was recently rejected as an explanation for maintaining diversity in natural populations of the freshwater herbivore Daphnia pulex. The primary limitation of competition theory is its failure to account for the alternative types of population cycles that are caused by size- or stage-dependent population vital rates--even though such structure both explains the fluctuating dynamics of many species and may alter the outcome of competition. Here we provide the first experimental test of whether alternative types of cycles affect natural selection in predator-prey systems. Using competing Daphnia genotypes, we show that internally generated, stage-structured cycles substantially reduce the magnitude of selection (thereby contributing to the maintenance of genetic diversity), whereas externally forced cycles show rapid competitive exclusion. The change in selection is ecologically significant, spanning the observed range in natural populations. We argue that structured cycles reduce selection through a combination of stalled juvenile development and stage-specific mortality. This potentially general fitness-equalizing mechanism may reduce the need for strong stabilizing mechanisms to explain the maintenance of genetic diversity in natural systems.     

Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age

Increases in median ages, the most commonly used measure of population ageing, are rapid in today's wealthier countries, and population ageing is widely considered to be a significant challenge to the well-being of citizens there. Conventional measures of age count years since birth; however, as lives lengthen, we need to think of age also in terms of years left until death or in proportion to the expanding lifespan. Here we propose a new measure of ageing: the median age of the population standardized for expected remaining years of life. We show, using historical data and forecasts for Germany, Japan and the United States, that although these populations will be growing older, as measured by their median ages, they will probably experience periods in which they grow younger, as measured by their standardized median ages. Furthermore, we provide forecasts for these countries of the old-age dependency ratio rescaled for increases in life expectancy at birth. These ratios are forecasted to change much less than their unscaled counterparts, and also exhibit periods when the population is effectively growing younger.     

Single-species models for many-species food webs

Most species live in species-rich food webs; yet, for a century, most mathematical models for population dynamics have included only one or two species. We ask whether such models are relevant to the real world. Two-species population models of an interacting consumer and resource collapse to one-species dynamics when recruitment to the resource population is unrelated to resource abundance, thereby weakening the coupling between consumer and resource. We predict that, in nature, generalist consumers that feed on many species should similarly show one-species dynamics. We test this prediction using cyclic populations, in which it is easier to infer underlying mechanisms, and which are widespread in nature. Here we show that one-species cycles can be distinguished from consumer resource cycles by their periods. We then analyse a large number of time series from cyclic populations in nature and show that almost all cycling, generalist consumers examined have periods that are consistent with one-species dynamics. Thus generalist consumers indeed behave as if they were one-species populations, and a one-species model is a valid representation for generalist population dynamics in many-species food webs.     

Strong effect of dispersal network structure on ecological dynamics

A central question in ecology with great importance for management, conservation and biological control is how changing connectivity affects the persistence and dynamics of interacting species. Researchers in many disciplines have used large systems of coupled oscillators to model the behaviour of a diverse array of fluctuating systems in nature. In the well-studied regime of weak coupling, synchronization is favoured by increases in coupling strength and large-scale network structures (for example 'small worlds') that produce short cuts and clustering. Here we show that, by contrast, randomizing the structure of dispersal networks in a model of predators and prey tends to favour asynchrony and prolonged transient dynamics, with resulting effects on the amplitudes of population fluctuations. Our results focus on synchronization and dynamics of clusters in models, and on timescales, more appropriate for ecology, namely smaller systems with strong interactions outside the weak-coupling regime, rather than the better-studied cases of large, weakly coupled systems. In these smaller systems, the dynamics of transients and the effects of changes in connectivity can be well understood using a set of methods including numerical reconstructions of phase dynamics, examinations of cluster formation and the consideration of important aspects of cyclic dynamics, such as amplitude.     

Parents suppress reproduction and stimulate dispersal in opposite-sex juvenile white-footed mice.

Juvenile dispersal is sex-biased in many mammals and birds: one sex often disperses more often or farther than the other. Two hypotheses are generally presented for sex-biased dispersal. The first holds that juvenile dispersal reduces reproductive and/or resource competition between parents and same-sexed offspring. If so, presence of a parent on the natal home range should both promote dispersal of same-sex offspring and suppress reproduction of those that remain. The second is that juvenile dispersal reduces matings between parents and offspring, thus decreasing the likelihood of inbreeding depression. If so, presence of a parent should favour dispersal and reproductive suppression of offspring of the opposite sex. Here I present evidence that juvenile dispersal in white-footed mice, Peromyscus leucopus, is due to inbreeding avoidance. When population density was high, experimental removal of one parent delayed dispersal of opposite-sexed offspring and only the presence of the parents of opposite sex suppressed juvenile reproduction.     

长江上游鲢群体遗传多样性和遗传分化

为了解三峡大坝、向家坝等水电工程建设后长江上游鲢群体的遗传多样性和遗传分化，利用线粒体细胞色素b（Cyt b）基因分析了长江上游向家坝库区（邵女坪）、三峡库区干流（巴南、丰都、万州、太平溪）及支流（箭滩河、嘉陵江、小江）等8个鲢群体的遗传多样性、历史动态及群体之间的遗传分化．结果表明:长江上游鲢群体的遗传多样性较高，单倍型多样性为0.770~0.876，核苷酸多样性为0.687%~1.967%；8个群体的错配分析图都呈双峰分布，中性检验Tajima’s D和Fu’s Fs值均为正值或统计上不显著的负值，表明长江上游鲢群体在历史上较为稳定；分子方差变异分析（AMOVA）显示，长江上游鲢群体的遗传变异主要来自群体内部（95.87%），仅有4.13%的变异来自群体之间；群体之间的遗传分化指数F_ST显示，箭滩河群体与太平溪、小江群体之间存在显著的遗传分化，其他群体之间遗传分化不显著；Mantel检验显示，群体之间的遗传分化程度与地理距离远近无相关性；单倍型网络图显示，长江上游鲢群体没有形成明显的系统地理格局．建议加强长江上游鲢遗传资源保护，将产生分化的群体作为不同的管理单元进行保护．      

3物种食物链的集合群落中捕食者追赶和猎物逃逸对空间同步性的影响

空间同步性能够导致区域物种灭绝从而降低集合种群的续存.在集合群落的框架内建立了两斑块3种群食物链联立模型来研究捕食者追赶和猎物逃逸对空间同步性的影响.由于种群存在较大的群落中,从集合种群向集合群落扩展是很自然的.表明了在集合种群中猎物逃逸降低空间同步性的结论在集合群落中有所改变.得到一个有悖直觉的结果:3物种食物链基层物种的逃逸并没有保护自己,反而增加了所有这3物种集合种群的空间同步性,因此也增加了灭绝的风险.这个结果说明在制定关于种群同步性也即续存的保护措施时,物种间的相互作用也必须考虑.     

Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics

Theoretical studies have shown that variation in density regulation strongly influences population dynamics, yet our understanding of factors influencing the strength of density dependence in natural populations still is limited. Consequently, few general hypotheses have been advanced to explain the large differences between species in the magnitude of population fluctuations. One reason for this is that the detection of density regulation in population time series is complicated by time lags induced by the life history of species that make it difficult to separate the relative contributions of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to the population dynamics. Here we use population time series for 23 bird species to estimate parameters of a stochastic density-dependent age-structured model. We show that both the strength of total density dependence in the life history and the magnitude of environmental stochasticity, including transient fluctuations in age structure, increase with generation time. These results indicate that the relationships between demographic and life-history traits in birds translate into distinct population dynamical patterns that are apparent only on a scale of generations.     

Release of invasive plants from fungal and viral pathogens

Invasive plant species both threaten native biodiversity and are economically costly, but only a few naturalized species become pests. Here we report broad, quantitative support for two long-standing hypotheses that explain why only some naturalized species have large impacts. The enemy release hypothesis argues that invaders' impacts result from reduced natural enemy attack. The biotic resistance hypothesis argues that interactions with native species, including natural enemies, limit invaders' impacts. We tested these hypotheses for viruses and for rust, smut and powdery mildew fungi that infect 473 plant species naturalized to the United States from Europe. On average, 84% fewer fungi and 24% fewer virus species infect each plant species in its naturalized range than in its native range. In addition, invasive plant species that are more completely released from pathogens are more widely reported as harmful invaders of both agricultural and natural ecosystems. Together, these results strongly support the enemy release hypothesis. Among noxious agricultural weeds, species accumulating more pathogens in their naturalized range are less widely noxious, supporting the biotic resistance hypothesis. Our results indicate that invasive plants' impacts may be a function of both release from and accumulation of natural enemies, including pathogens.     

木本克隆植物中国沙棘种群林缘扩散规律研究

通过对中国沙棘林缘扩散过程和规律进行分析,揭示了中国沙棘的克隆生长过程.结果显示:中国沙棘以年龄最大的分株为中心向两侧实施克隆扩散,形成中间分株大、密度小以及越向两侧分株越小、密度越大的双向“阶梯式”种群外貌.然而,种群向两侧的扩散并不对称,其原因在于扩散过程受到土壤水分状况的影响.向土壤水分条件较好的一侧,林缘扩散种群以分株较大、密度较高为特征,克隆生长格局倾向于“聚集型”;向土壤水分较差的一侧,林缘扩散种群以分株较小、密度较低为特征,克隆生长格局倾向于“游击型”.由此表明在不同的土壤水分状况下,中国沙棘通过克隆生长调节形成与之相适应的克隆生长格局,即觅养对策.