温室效应与全球气候变暖

介绍了温室效应和温室气体的含义,阐述了当前6种主要温室气体（CO2、CH4、N2O、HFCs、SF6）及其浓度剧增的原因,并概括了温室效应引起的全球气候变暖带来的负面影响。制定合理高效的发展策略,减少和控制温室气体的排放迫在眉睫。     

减缓全球气候变暖的新途径

因人类对化石燃料的大量燃烧,致使大气中产生了过量的温室气体CO2,导致全球气候变暖,海平面上升.为了避免温室效应可能给人类带来的灾害,应控制CO2向大气中的过量排放.减少和控制CO2在大气中过量聚集的一种新途径是将工业产生的CO2封存于地质建造中.最适宜CO2封存的地质建造是油气田废弃的或正在生产的储油气层、煤田中的不可采煤层和深层多孔隙含盐建造.人类在石油和天然气生产方面的经验是CO2封存技术和机理研究的有益基础.     

Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model

Abrupt changes in climate, termed Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, have punctuated the last glacial period (approximately 100-10 kyr ago) but not the Holocene (the past 10 kyr). Here we use an intermediate-complexity climate model to investigate the stability of glacial climate, and we find that only one mode of Atlantic Ocean circulation is stable: a cold mode with deep water formation in the Atlantic Ocean south of Iceland. However, a 'warm' circulation mode similar to the present-day Atlantic Ocean is only marginally unstable, and temporary transitions to this warm mode can easily be triggered. This leads to abrupt warm events in the model which share many characteristics of the observed Dansgaard-Oeschger events. For a large freshwater input (such as a large release of icebergs), the model's deep water formation is temporarily switched off, causing no strong cooling in Greenland but warming in Antarctica, as is observed for Heinrich events. Our stability analysis provides an explanation why glacial climate is much more variable than Holocene climate.     

Reducing the climate shift in a new coupled model

Climate drift refers to spurious long-term changes that may be inherent in coupled models when external forcing factors are fixed. Understanding the sources of this drift and tuning the drift are crucial for obtaining reasonable simulations from coupled models. To prepare for the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, a new coupled model has been constructed based on the Community Earth System Model and the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG version 2. However, the surface temperature predicted by the new model is too underestimated, and this underestimation is caused by a type of climate drift, i.e., ‘‘initial shock.’’ This study analyzes the source of the cold surface temperature from the perspective of energy balance and attempts to reduce the surface temperature drift by tuning the relative humidity threshold for low cloud.     

Prediction of decadal variability of sea surface temperature by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed in LASG/IAP

A decadal climate prediction was performed by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) within the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Sciences.First,an Incremental Analysis Updates(IAU) scheme was applied to assimilate surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity fields derived from oceanic objective analysis data,for the initialization of the ocean component of the model.Starting from the initialized states,hindcast integrations were performed with the specified historical solar cycle variations,concentrations of greenhouse gasses and sulfate aerosol,following the standard 20C3M scenario used in phase three of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3).Based on the hindcast integrations,we performed forecast integrations under the radiative forcing of the A1B scenario in the CMIP3.Compared with the 20C3M run,the hindcast integrations have a much higher ability to simulate the decadal variability of SST(Sea Surface Temperature) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and mid-latitude northeastern Pacific.This suggests that the ocean initialization is able to enhance the model skill in the regions with large decadal variability.The forecast integrations suggest that the SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific has reached its trough phase,and will gradually increase in the following 10-15 years.Meanwhile,the global mean surface temperature predicted by the forecast integrations increases slower than that projected by the A1B scenario run over 2000-2010,but faster than the latter after that.     

Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change

Significantly more carbon is stored in the world's soils--including peatlands, wetlands and permafrost--than is present in the atmosphere. Disagreement exists, however, regarding the effects of climate change on global soil carbon stocks. If carbon stored belowground is transferred to the atmosphere by a warming-induced acceleration of its decomposition, a positive feedback to climate change would occur. Conversely, if increases of plant-derived carbon inputs to soils exceed increases in decomposition, the feedback would be negative. Despite much research, a consensus has not yet emerged on the temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition. Unravelling the feedback effect is particularly difficult, because the diverse soil organic compounds exhibit a wide range of kinetic properties, which determine the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of their decomposition. Moreover, several environmental constraints obscure the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of substrate decomposition, causing lower observed 'apparent' temperature sensitivity, and these constraints may, themselves, be sensitive to climate.     

Response of monsoon variability in Himalayas to global warming

Reconstructed annual net accumulation from the Dasuopu ice core recovered in Himalayas, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in central Himalayas. The Dasuopu accumulation (DSP An) also shows a strong correlation to the Northern Hemispheric temperature. Generally, as the Northern Hemispheric temperature increases by 0.1 K, the accumulation decreases by about 90 mm and vise versa. Under the condition of global warming, especially since 1920, the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature has increased by about 0.5 K, whereas accumulation in Dasuopu ice core has decreased by about 450 mm. According to the relationship between accumulation and temperature, a scenario prediction of monsoon rainfall in central Himalayas is made.     

湖北地区气温变化对全球变暖的响应

选用湖北省77个代表站1960-2003年逐日气温观测资料,分析了湖北省气温的年、季节变化规律及其地域分布特征．结果表明：湖北省近44年气温呈上升趋势,至2003年气温上升了0．5℃,增温速率约为0．12℃／10a,和近50年来的全球平均增温速率相当．20世纪90年代升温最剧烈．春季、秋季和冬季气温均呈上升趋势,冬季增温最明显,而夏季气温却呈下降趋势．夏季平均日最高气温也呈下降趋势,冬季平均日最低气温上升趋势显著．气温变化不同的地区差异较大,西部地区变化趋势不明显,有微弱的下降趋势,而中东部地区则有较明显的升温趋势．     

复杂机电系统全局耦合模型的建模

复杂机电系统中同时存在许多耦合因素,它们对系统的动态特性有重要影响,有时甚至引起重大故障,工程上迫切需要探明复杂机电系统中网络式多重耦合因素所形成的复杂机理.通过探讨复杂机电系统的全局动态模型的建模方法与过程,为进一步的动态仿真、机理分析、全局优化等工作做准备,并分析了动态方程的类型,提供了建模的具体实例.实例所建全局耦合模型反映了高速轧机垂振系统与扭振系统间的相互影响,也反映了扭振系统中各轴系间的联系,以及电气控制系统与垂、扭振系统的耦合关系、电气系统各部分之间的耦合关系.各动态特性及多重网络式反馈制约关系用框图清晰地给以表达.图1,参12.     

Neoproterozoic 'snowball Earth' simulations with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model

Ice sheets may have reached the Equator in the late Proterozoic era (600-800 Myr ago), according to geological and palaeomagnetic studies, possibly resulting in a 'snowball Earth'. But this period was a critical time in the evolution of multicellular animals, posing the question of how early life survived under such environmental stress. Here we present computer simulations of this unusual climate stage with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model. To simulate a snowball Earth, we use only a reduction in the solar constant compared to present-day conditions and we keep atmospheric CO2 concentrations near present levels. We find rapid transitions into and out of full glaciation that are consistent with the geological evidence. When we combine these results with a general circulation model, some of the simulations result in an equatorial belt of open water that may have provided a refugium for multicellular animals.     

Observational responses of stratospheric sudden warming to blocking highs and its feedbacks on the troposphere

The influences of tropospheric blocking high on the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and the SSW-induced feedback on the lower atmosphere are analyzed with NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) 2 reanalysis data. Daily mean data from 1979 to 2010 are used to perform statistical and dynamical analyses. According to different distribution features of polar vortex, which can be ascribed to different activities of blocking highs, we have obtained two warming patterns in vortex splitting and displacement patterns. For vortex splitting events, in the Eurasian-North American (ENA) paratype, with disturbances of Atlantic and Aleutian blocking highs, polar vortex is split into two parts that locate at Eurasian and North American continents respectively, while in the Atlantic-East Asian (AEA) paratype, two low-pressure centers derived from the split vortex are situated in the Atlantic and East Asian regions, and two blocking systems occurring in the Urals and North American areas precede these splitting processes. For vortex displacement events, in the Aleutian-Intrusion (AI) paratype, the polar vortex is displaced to the west European and Atlantic areas by the intrusive Aleutian high and this pattern always corresponds to the blocking events occurring in the Pacific basin only. Similarly, the vortex is pushed to the west Eurasian continent by the intrusive North American high-pressure system in the North American-Intrusion (NAI) paratype, which is closely related to the blocking over these areas. The second subject of the research is that whether the anomalous stratospheric signals can be propagated to the lower atmosphere, which is depended on the intensity, duration and position of the disturbed vortex. According to our case studies, geopotential height anomalies can be propagated to the troposphere in strong SSW years, taking about 10-15 d for the decrease from 10 to 500 hPa, leading to apparent variations in the geopotential height and temperature fields.     

Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model

Many palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region show a pattern of rapid climate oscillations, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events, with a quasi-periodicity of approximately 1,470 years for the late glacial period. Various hypotheses have been suggested to explain these rapid temperature shifts, including internal oscillations in the climate system and external forcing, possibly from the Sun. But whereas pronounced solar cycles of approximately 87 and approximately 210 years are well known, a approximately 1,470-year solar cycle has not been detected. Here we show that an intermediate-complexity climate model with glacial climate conditions simulates rapid climate shifts similar to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events with a spacing of 1,470 years when forced by periodic freshwater input into the North Atlantic Ocean in cycles of approximately 87 and approximately 210 years. We attribute the robust 1,470-year response time to the superposition of the two shorter cycles, together with strongly nonlinear dynamics and the long characteristic timescale of the thermohaline circulation. For Holocene conditions, similar events do not occur. We conclude that the glacial 1,470-year climate cycles could have been triggered by solar forcing despite the absence of a 1,470-year solar cycle.     

Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming

Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane, an important greenhouse gas, limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Thaw lakes in North Siberia are known to emit methane, but the magnitude of these emissions remains uncertain because most methane is released through ebullition (bubbling), which is spatially and temporally variable. Here we report a new method of measuring ebullition and use it to quantify methane emissions from two thaw lakes in North Siberia. We show that ebullition accounts for 95 per cent of methane emissions from these lakes, and that methane flux from thaw lakes in our study region may be five times higher than previously estimated. Extrapolation of these fluxes indicates that thaw lakes in North Siberia emit 3.8 teragrams of methane per year, which increases present estimates of methane emissions from northern wetlands (< 6-40 teragrams per year; refs 1, 2, 4-6) by between 10 and 63 per cent. We find that thawing permafrost along lake margins accounts for most of the methane released from the lakes, and estimate that an expansion of thaw lakes between 1974 and 2000, which was concurrent with regional warming, increased methane emissions in our study region by 58 per cent. Furthermore, the Pleistocene age (35,260-42,900 years) of methane emitted from hotspots along thawing lake margins indicates that this positive feedback to climate warming has led to the release of old carbon stocks previously stored in permafrost.     

全球变暖背景下极端降水变化率与气温的响应关系

以中国整体为研究区,基于1960—2013年520个气象站逐日降水和气温数据,选取极端降水变化率(α)和饱和水汽压变化率(β)2个指标,定量分析了极端降水与全球变暖之间的内在联系.结果表明:全球变暖背景下我国整体上极端降水呈现增加的趋势,α和β分别为6.4%·℃-1和9.3%·℃-1,且α更接近理论值(约7%·℃-1),β与平均气温存在指数定量化关系.在此基础上,根据平均气温的不同将我国划分为9个对照组,进一步分析其空间差异,结果表明:α和β在空间上存在显著的正相关关系(r=0.63),具体表现为平均气温较高的地区,α和β值也较大.证明了饱和水汽压随温度的变化率可以从大尺度上解释极端降水增加的空间变化特征.     

Mechanisms for the hiatus in global warming

The observed global mean temperature is the highest on record for the past decade but has plateaued to form an apparent ＂hiatus＂ in global temperature rise, with an almost zero short-term trend. Several speakers presented results on the hiatus and suggested possible mechanisms.