Optimal index shooting policy for layered missile defense system

In order to cope with the increasing threat of the ballistic missile(BM)in a shorter reaction time,the shooting policy of the layered defense system needs to be optimized.The main decisionmaking problem of shooting optimization is how to choose the next BM which needs to be shot according to the previous engagements and results,thus maximizing the expected return of BMs killed or minimizing the cost of BMs penetration.Motivated by this,this study aims to determine an optimal shooting policy for a two-layer missile defense(TLMD)system.This paper considers a scenario in which the TLMD system wishes to shoot at a collection of BMs one at a time,and to maximize the return obtained from BMs killed before the system demise.To provide a policy analysis tool,this paper develops a general model for shooting decision-making,the shooting engagements can be described as a discounted reward Markov decision process.The index shooting policy is a strategy that can effectively balance the shooting returns and the risk that the defense mission fails,and the goal is to maximize the return obtained from BMs killed before the system demise.The numerical results show that the index policy is better than a range of competitors,especially the mean returns and the mean killing BM number.     

Meta-Action Research on a Leadership Development Program: A Process Model for Life-long Learning

Our purpose in this paper is to contribute to the field of systemic practice by sharing a process of professional learning based on meta-action research. The process emerged as we engaged with evaluation data from a leadership development program (LDP). The aim of this LDP had been to help leaders design their team projects on poverty reduction through action research methods in six African countries. As facilitators of the program we discuss our experiential learning based on critical reflection. We explain how meta-action research can transform understandings of ways to improve professional practice in future applications. We present three process models: (1) a model of reflection on action, (2) a meta-action research model, and (3) a model for lifelong learning through meta-action research. These models may be of benefit and interest to readers who facilitate systemic practice and action research in education, higher education, communities, industry and government.     

Systems Pluralism in Infrastructure Decision-Making for Socially Connected Greenfield Communities

The problem in planning for relevant infrastructure in new communities is that the community doesn’t yet exist and is not engaged in the planning process. As such, planners draw on available housing and demographic information and essentially ‘best guess’ the future community’s infrastructure and social connection needs. This situation spotlights a gap in the planning literature concerning ways to ‘better determine’ a future community’s infrastructures that enable social connection between residents. In seeking to help address that knowledge gap, the purpose of this paper is to theoretically argue for the process of and illustrate the value of, pursuing a hybrid systems thinking approach to the identification and deployment of the physical infrastructures that may help better facilitate the social connectedness of a future community in new greenfield development areas. This approach combines aspects of Soft systems methodology and system dynamics. Such a process informs the development of a decision support model for Planners’ that incorporates multiple user perspectives in these local planning decisions and contributes to the structural advancement of socially connected communities.     

Coproduction in Practice: Participatory Action Research to Develop a Model of Community Aged Care

Coproduction has become synonymous with innovative approaches to public service delivery in European Union countries as well as in Australia. Coproduction has the potential to bring together individuals, communities, and organisations in a process to collaboratively develop new models and services which improve public services. Yet, Australian policy makers and practitioners who would like to deploy coproduction within the context of older adult social care can only draw on a handful of papers and reports that could guide implementation. This paper fills this gap by reporting on the implementation of a multi-stakeholder coproduction approach to the development of a consumer directed care model for older people with complex health issues. The paper describes and critically highlights methodological challenges encountered during the 12 month-long participatory action research phase of a larger project involving older people with complex care needs, their carers, and government and non-government stakeholders. The paper outlines key considerations regarding (1) the involvement of older people with complex needs, (2) collaboration with industry partners, (3) engagement of government representatives, and (4) reflects on implementing participatory research projects within a context of outsourcing and interlinked supply chains. While not all challenges encountered could be resolved, the coproduction approach was successful in bringing together a wide range of stakeholders with competing agendas in an iterative process geared to resolve a plethora of concerns raised by older people, carers and services providers. This paper provides an example for others seeking to use coproduction and participatory methods to provide person-centred care services for older people.     

Normative Evaluation of Community Projects: A Multimodal Systems Approach

This paper introduces an evaluation method for community projects based on the multimodal systems approach. The method differs from the common mechanistic approach to evaluation in four ways. Firstly, it uses the long-term life (viability) of a community as the ultimate criteria of evaluation. Secondly, it is normative; that is, it focuses on the responsibility of people to their own community and for managing their own lives. Thirdly, it is dynamic; it identifies factors that threaten a community and examines their dynamic link and long-term impact on the community. Fourthly, it evaluates the adequacy of a community activity (good practice) to help ensure its long-term viability. The method is illustrated with a European Union sponsored project.     

Application of the Search Conference methodology to planning in higher education

An adaptation of a First-World planning method was successfully used to help solve the problematic situation confronted by a Third-World higher education institution. The Search Conference is a method which enables the necessary conditions for a set of individuals to engage into a comprehensive process of reflection and design over a specific social system or domain. While preserving its essential characteristics, the Search Conference has been adapted to respond to a Third-World organizational environment. The realization of a “massive” conference in a Mexican public university triggered a participative strategic planning process of long-lasting consequences. The university community designed a desired future for the institution which became the guiding force to mobilize it in the agreed-upon direction. They also learned how to plan and carry on projects participatively. Some tangible results are the identification of students' regional demand, with the consequent creation of four new bachelors degrees and two masters degrees; the creation of a program to support those faculty members who would be willing to undertake masters and doctoral studies in outside prestigious universities; the increase in enrollment as a result of combined actions; and the opening of two extension centers off campus to improve the external community's involvement. In conclusion, a change of attitude emerged from the conference, which has been instrumental for the continuing involvement of the internal community in the creation of a new university agreeable to all.     

Co-operative Inquiry as a Tool for Professional Development

This article describes my involvement as an external facilitator in separate research projects, with a total of five co-operative inquiry groups. The groups all consisted of social welfare professionals, mainly social workers, who were wanting to explore the development of their practice in a context of competing demands from legislation, policy, and management at an organizational level. The article focuses on process, and how, collectively, we facilitated these as more or less successful inquiries. There is detail about how co-operative inquiry, with professionals, in their organizational context, can work successfully, and the part that an external facilitator can take in ensuring a positive result.     

Changes in Multicultural Experience: Action Research on a Service Learning Curriculum

Service learning is a form of experiential education in which students engage in activities that address human and community needs together with structured opportunities designed for student learning and development. This study investigated the changes in the multicultural experience of graduate students who participated in a service learning curriculum. The participants comprised six graduate students who enrolled in the “Service Learning Research” course. Action research and qualitative methods were applied to analyze data including interview content, reflection diaries, and community service dossiers. The results revealed the following problems that the participants experienced at the beginning of service learning: (1) a sense of anxiety and anticipation before service engagement; and (2) substantial barriers during service delivery. Through guidance and reflection after intervention, the students demonstrated the abilities to question and observe. Moreover, the evaluation revealed that the participants reflected on the changes in their multicultural experience. Directly contacting service recipients was an essential factor affecting the participants’ changes, and keeping reflection diaries and engaging in in-class discussion facilitated supporting and inspiring the participants. According to the results of this study, we recommend that service learning curricula be reinforced through integrating multicultural teaching and challenging students to reflect on their conduct as well as supporting the students. Additionally, suggestions for subsequent studies are provided.     

Smart Cities and M<Superscript>3</Superscript>: Rapid Research,Meaningful Metrics and Co-Design

The research described in this paper is undertaken under the banner of the smart city, a concept that captures the way urban spaces are re-made by the incursion of new technology. Much of smart is centred on converting everyday activities into data, and using this data to generate knowledge mediated by technology. Ordinary citizens, those that may have their lives impacted by the technology, usually are not properly involved in the ‘smartification’ process. Their perceptions, concerns and expectations should inform the conception and development of smart technologies at the same extent. How to engage general public with smart cities research is the central challenge for the Making Metrics Meaningful (MMM) project. Applying a rapid participatory method, ‘Imagine’ over a five-month period (March – July) the research sought to gain insights from the general public into novel forms of information system innovation. This brief paper describes the nature of the accelerated research undertaken and explores some of the themes which emerged in the analysis. Generic themes, beyond the remit of an explicit transport focus, are developed and pointers towards further research directions are discussed. Participatory methods, including engaging with self-selected transport users actively through both picture creation and programmatically specific musical ‘signatures’ as well as group discussion, were found to be effective in eliciting users’ own concerns, needs and ideas for novel information systems.     

Project management: Recent developments and research opportunities

This paper studies the business process known as project management. This process has exhibited a remarkable growth in business interest over the last 15 years, as demonstrated by a 1000% increase in membership in the Project Management Institute since 1996. This growth is largely attributable to the emergence of many new diverse business applications that can be successfully managed as projects. The new applications for project management include IT implementations, research and development, new product and service development, corporate change management, and software development. The characteristics of modern projects are typically very different from those of traditional projects such as construction and engineering, which necessitates the development of new project management techniques. We discuss these recent practical developments. The history of project management methodology is reviewed, from CPM and PERT to the influential modern directions of critical chain project management and agile methods. We identify one important application area for future methodological change as new product and service development. A list of specific research topics within project management is discussed. The conclusions suggest the existence of significant research opportunities within project management.     

层次灰色方法在科研项目评估中的应用研究

科研立项过程中,对备选项目进行科学合理的评价是项目管理中非常关键的一个环节。现有文献对科研项目评价主要还是采用定性的方法。针对项目评价中信息不确切、不完全的问题,提出采用层次灰色方法建立科研项目优选决策模型,描述了此模型的具体计算过程,并进行了应用分析。研究结果表明,这个模型很好地结合了定性评价和定量评价的优点,同一般常用的模糊综合评价、加权平均等方法相比,使用简便,结果直观、准确可靠,可以为客观科学地评价和优选科研项目提供重要依据。     

学习记忆恢复过程的时空波动规律

记忆一直作为心理学的核心内容之一而受到极大的重视 .本文从学习记忆心理角度 ,在综合了由观察和实验研究所获得的有关保持与遗忘方面的研究成果的基础上 ,根据赫尔学习系统的基本公设理论 ,运用现代科学中的模型方法 ,构建关于学习记忆心理过程的数学模型 ,并通过齐次平衡法、数值模拟等数学演绎 ,分析解释记忆恢复过程多峰现象 ,提出学习记忆恢复过程的混沌模式。     

管理机制设计理论

管理机制是管理系统运行的机理, 管理者就是在管理机制的支持下使的被管理者向着一定的状态发展或运动的。长期以来, 构造管理机制的方法仅仅局限于直觉与经验。本文研究如何科学地建立管理机制。文章认为管理机制设计有四个步骤：1.倾向分析。即分析被管理者有哪些自发追求。2.回报分析, 即针对每一种倾向分析被管理者有哪些可以提供的回报。3.状态分析, 即对达到管理目标时被管理者的各种标志进行分析。4.构造“结”, 即把状态与回报相连接, 文章还进一步研究了构造“结”的技术问题, 如“结”的形式、强度、状态受力的平衡、“结”的串联与并联等等。     

A Systemic Approach to Addressing the Complexity of Energy Problems

This paper presents a conceptual framework for using energy as a vehicle for holistic development to address: poverty, gender discrimination, community involvement in decision making on social, economic, and environmental issues. The approach is systemic and participatory ironically, energy is always seen or considered in fragmentation from other areas and as a technical subject, without considering it in less literal and more metaphorical terms as an end and means of communication. Energy should be seen holistically. Holism is based on a profound understanding of the interconnectedness of the various parts and their relationship to the whole. The point made in this paper is that, by adding energy to the development plan, we solve nothing unless we also consider community mobilization, participatory approaches, and the role of gender in development. Pradhan's research in Nepal has demonstrated that if one thinks of energy only in technical terms and development projects strive to provide more electricity, the interventions can paradoxically just add more drudgery to the lives of women, unless policies consider energy within the context of the whole social, political, economic, and environmental system. Energy provision is more than merely a technical intervention. Participation uses human energy and the creative energy of human beings in a different way. The heart of participatory development is co-creating (in the sense used by Reason, 1988, 2002) understanding based on communication that is generative in the sense used by Paulo Freire. Generative understanding provides a different kind of energy, based on resonance. So this is a play on words when we place energy in a technical sense and energy in a human sense at the center of development. Also, physicists would argue that energy needs to be considered far wore widely as a basis for communication and life. Some also argue that energy is the basis of all organic and inorganic matter in the universe; it is the communication across subatomic matter.     

An effective multiple criteria approach to infrastructure reconstruction in devastated countries

1. The Setting There are many countries worldwide suffering from the consequences of disasters and conflicts or wars, and they often have been inJOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING 233 dire straits for long periods of time. The degradation of resources and utility services is a direct result of those conflicts. A concerted response from the international community to rehabilitate these countries to minimize their human tragedies is urgently needed and is growin…     

黄土高原农业生态补偿的探讨

黄土高原的可持续发展需强调生态和经济的协调。而目前黄土高原生态经济建设存在的若干问题相当程度上表现为农业的外部性（生态保护带来的生态服务）得不到合理解决。从生态经济学的相关理论和方法出发，认为建立生态补偿机制是保持生态经济协调发展的重要途径之一。在对农业进行补偿的原理分析基础上，根据安塞县的生态系统服务价值，确定补偿系数为2．0％，计算得出该县2000年需要生态补偿量为1289．86万元。在此基础上探讨了农业生态补偿的途径和有待进一步完善的问题。图2，表1，参8。     

Individual Actions as Community Informative Resources. A Collective Informative Systems Approach

This paper conceives communities (in this case, partnerships) as being able to become collective informative repositories of individual and collective actions that may better-inform their members. This paper presents one approach for studying if a community has become such an informative repository. The approach used here consists of introducing a formal language (Viable Systems Modelling, VSM) into one of the community nodes (a participant) and tracing if its use is seen in another node (another participant) - indicating the presence of a process of diffusion. This research design has been tested in a crime-reduction partnership in the UK. One of its members was asked to engage in the design and testing of this approach as a co-researcher. As a result, a questionnaire to map communication and control devices inside an organization was jointly developed. In keeping with VSM principles, the questionnaire encouraged participants to reflect on attenuation and amplification processes within their communications channels. To test the quality of the outcomes of this approach, members from another crime-reduction partnership were also invited to answer the survey; this was to confirm that VSM notions were not evident for those outside the development and testing of the questionnaire. The questionnaire indicated also its capability to make visible communication and organizational processes within collectives and its potential to stimulate self-organization, for those individuals who became familiar with VSM. Furthermore, this approach provided the authors with the capability to study information flows inside the two collectives, and contributed to an understanding of these flows as a model for building and maintaining a Community Informative System.     

分布仿真实验管理系统中守护端的设计与实现

通常情况下,仿真实验过程需要专门的值守人员来辅助完成仿真实验的管理任务。分布仿真实验管理系统通过引入节点守护端程序,实现了仿真节点上的资源部署、仿真成员和工具等的控制、负载监测等功能。节点守护端的引入一方面使得分布仿真实验管理摆脱了传统的值守人员手工控制的方式,实现了仿真管理的自动化,另一方面,由于减少了控制过程中的人工干预,从而降低了出错率,提高了仿真管理的效率。