政府补贴对绿色技术创新能力的影响

基于中国30个省份工业企业2005-2015年的动态面板数据,运用两步系统GMM法实证检验了政府补贴对企业绿色技术创新投入能力和产出能力的影响,并考察了企业异质性对政府补贴资助效果的影响,主要包括企业规模、所有制结构以及二者交互项对政府补贴资助效果的调节作用.结果表明:政府补贴对工业企业绿色技术创新投入和产出能力总体上...     

城市交通系统复杂性模型及仿真分析

提出城市交通系统是开放的复杂巨系统，建立一个基于Logit交通分配模型的诱导信息服从率复杂性模型，对出行者诱导信息服从率的变化特性进行仿真分析，结果表明路径上交通量的变化呈周期性不稳定状态。     

面向环境的城市交通规划方法理论

传统的交通规划方法未考虑环境因素对交通系统的制约作用,因而已不能满足现代城市交通系统可持续发展发展的要求.本文提出面向环境的城市交通规划方法试图解决这一问题.在假设出行者具有环境理性和交通管理部门对交通流量进行有效控制的基础上,给出了面向环境的城市交通规划方法的交通需求预测模型,并建立了环境影响评价指标体系.     

城市交通仿真系统(UTSS)的实现

在VC 6.0编译环境下,利用计算机辅助设计(CAD)技术结合C 语言开发了功能强大的城市交通仿真系统。首先介绍了利用CAD技术绘制交通地图的方法;然后给出了利用C 计算机语言实现系统的设计思路和开发过程;最后,进行了定时控制和模糊控制方式下的性能比较仿真,结果表明,该系统能很好的满足交通控制理论研究的需要,较好地起到帮助寻找最优控制策略的目的。     

城市私人汽车与住房发展关系研究

建立了系统动力学模型,模拟和预测北京住房、公共交通和小轿车的发展关系。该模型计算结果表明,要解决紧迫的住房问题,必须限制小轿车的数量。若有足够的数据支持,并加以细化,该模型可以成为各地政府制定城市发展战略的有力工具     

基于出行时间可靠性的城市交通网络设计

现实城市交通中,日常出行需求经常发生变动且路段能力一般处于恶化状态下,在假设出行时间和出行需求变动服从正态分布的情况下,建立了基于出行时间可靠性的城市道路交通连续网络设计模型。由于现实数据获取的困难性,设计了结合仿真技术的遗传算法来求解该问题。通过算例分析表明,建立的模型是有效的,其求解算法是可行的。     

基于UML的城市轨道交通列车控制系统分析与建模

简要介绍了城市轨道交通列车运行控制系统，针对系统的复杂性，按照功能将其划分成三层结构，以面向对象的方法分析了系统本身及其与外围的关系。采用面向对象建模技术将这个系统处理成列车，轨道线路，ATC系统等对象，描述了每个子系统的结构，并通过适应静态性和动态性模型的统一建模语言UML及其Rational Rose工具建立了严格定义语义的可视化化模型。     

基于RUP的城轨列车运行控制仿真系统设计和实现

作为城市轨道交通列车运行控制系统研究的重要辅助工具,列车运行控制系统仿真系统的开发将对研究工作给予最大程度上的促进.文章从仿真软件的功能需求出发,着重阐述了基于Rational统一过程RUP对仿真系统进行开发的详细过程.使用这种方法将仿真软件的开发分成了四个阶段,在每个阶段中有效地使用UML建模语言和Rose可视化建模工具辅助开发过程.在仿真系统之上,运用列车、线路等模型对列车的运行仿真,对控车策略进行测试,并完成了运行数据的分析评估.     

容积率对城镇土地价格的影响

容积率是影响城镇土地价格最重要的因素之一,在进行地价评估时一般都要进行容积率修正,但目前确定容积率修正系数的方法存在种种不足.本文根据作者多年的基准地价评估经验,分析容积率对地价的影响规律,建立地价与容积率的关系模型,并进行实证分析,为城镇地价评估工作提供一条思路.     

城市轨道交通直流牵引供电系统的仿真研究

基于电路理论和CAD技术，详细阐述了一种适合于城市轨道交通牵引供电系统的仿真分析法，这种方法不仅能为城市轨道交通的新建和扩建方案的论证。设计分析数据，而且还可以对牵引变电站供电系统的技术参数进行计算与校核，本文提出的仿真分析法，已成功地应用于上海地铁一号线，二号线，东方明珠线的牵引供电系统的研究，其结论与国外咨询设计公司所提供的结果十分吻合。     

交通影响下的城市中心演化系统动力学模型及仿真研究

交通对于城市中心的形成和演化具有重要的引导和反馈作用。本文分析城市中心基于自组织理论的形成机制；采用系统动力学的研究方法，建立城市中心内部相互作用的系统动力学模型和多中心之间相互竞争的系统动力学模型，并利用Vensim软件进行实例仿真模拟；通过对模型的分析，可知利用交通可以刺激或抑制城市中心的发展，进而形成良好的城市形态和稳定的城市结构。     

城轨列控系统仿真平台中联锁站的设计和实现

分析了联锁站仿真系统在城市轨道交通列车运行控制系统仿真平台中的作用。以面向对象的软件工程为基础,运用UML语言阐述联锁站仿真系统的功能需求、总体设计、详细设计、编程和实现的过程并利用CASE工具建立系统设计不同阶段的可视化模型。通过编程实现,验证了模型的正确性和分析方法的有效性。采用这种方法对仿真系统进行设计,优化了开发过程,提高了软件设计的质量和效率。     

城乡客运一体化实现能力多层BP网络综合评价

为规划、决策、监督城乡客运一体化进程,在建立城乡客运一体化实现能力指标体系的基础上,构造了基于BP算法的城乡客运一体化实现能力综合评价模型.该模型具有较好的收敛速度和自适应能力,具有方便、准确、可靠、快速等特点.实例仿真和分析结果表明了该方法的有效性.     

城轨列车运行仿真系统中三维视景研究与实现

首先分析了北京地铁一号线列车运行仿真系统中实时三维视号子系统的特点，提出利用UML（Unitlea Mpdeling Language。统一建模语言）对三维观景于系统设计进行描述，并利用Creator分别建立车站和隧道三维模型，解决了三维视景于系统与列车运行仿真系统中其他子系境之间实时性的关键问题。实现结果表明：三维视景子系统具有较强的真实感，并且具有较好的实时性。     

基于引力场模型的城市轨道交通与城市发展的相关性

城市快速轨道交通是一种快速、便捷、大容量的公共交通系统，它不仅有效地缓解了城市的交通压力，同时城市轨道交通的规模和线路走向也同城市的空间结构发展密切相关。本文在对原有城市引力模型加以修正的基础上引入城市引力场概念。建立了城市轨道交通条件下以交通时间为基础的城市引力场模型，并对参数的影响因素和变化趋势进行了讨论。最后以上海为实例，按建设城市轨道交通的时间顺序绘制了不同时期城市引力场分布图，揭示了城市轨道交通建设与上海发展的密切关系，指出规划中的上海城市轨道交通网对形成“多中心”的城市空间结构具有积极的促进作用。     

The Spatial Statistics Analysis of Housing Market Bubbles

With the incorporation of spatial statistic method, this paper constructs a state-space model of housing market bubbles, discussing the spatial pattern of housing market bubbles in China,and identifying the dynamic evolution process. The results show that: The bubbles of housing market walked along a path from low level to high level and then downsized to a low level during the period of 2009 and 2014, and the highest level stayed at 2011. From overall, the level of housing market bubbles had shown significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration. In detail, the direction of North-South in China showed the inverted U shape, i.e., Central region was with high bubbles, and two ends contained low bubbles; from East-West direction, the East had high bubbles and the West contained comparatively low bubbles. Local spatial test indicates that there were some approximate spatial features in housing market bubbles among the adjacent regions. Observed from the level of housing market bubbles, China contained 3 plates: The first was the plate with low bubble level,including 3 provinces in North-East China(provinces of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning were included,but Dalian in Liaoning province was excluded; the second was the Central and West plate(the provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Gansu, Fujian, Jiangxi and Hainan were included in this plate), which was also featured with low bubble; and the third was Central East plate(provinces or provincial regions of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong,Anhui, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia were included), which was characterized as high bubble region.     

基于DEA—一致Malmquist模型的公路运输系统适应性

将数据包络分析(DEA)和Malmquist生产率指数理论相结合,运用到公路运输系统适应性分析中,针对公路运输系统自身特点,通过建立DEA-一致Malmquist模型,提出公路运输系统适应性分析体系,对比和分析公路运输系统与区域经济,人口、资源等外部因素间的适应性,并通过实例对模型进行验证.     

The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics

In recent years, the proportion of China's elderly population is gradually increasing, and the real estate market is changing dramatically. Consequently the impact of population aging on housing demand has become increasingly prominent. On the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging, family structure and housing demand, this paper firstly constructs a system dynamics model of the impact of population aging and family structure on housing demand in China. Then,the model is simulated, and several scenarios of population, family structure, and real estate policies are set up. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: China's population will rise at first and then decrease, reaching a peak of 1.401 billion by 2023. As the proportion of elderly population increases, the degree of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The size of the family will gradually shrink to 2.39 people per household in 2050. The housing demand will increase first and then decrease. Through the results of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the following suggestion to effectively balance the housing demand in China: Completely relaxing family planning policies,imposing a real estate tax, canceling the pre-sale policy, and raising the loan rate.     

Model and Algorithm of Transportation Problem on Network

Transportation problem on network needs to determine the freight quantity and the transportation route between supply point and demand point. Therefore, taken the uncertainty of freight supply and demand into account, a collaborative optimization model is formulated with transportation capacity constraint. In addition, a two-stage genetic algorithm （GA） is put forward. Herein, the first stage of this GA is adopted a priority-based encoding method for determining the supply and demand relationship between different points. Then supply and demand relationship which the supply and the demand are both greater than zero is a minimum cost flow （MCF） problem on network in the second stage. Aim at the purpose to solve MCF problem, a GA is employed. Moreover, this algorithm is suitable for balance and unbalance transportation on directed network or undirected network. At last, the model and algorithm are verified to be efficient by a numerical example.     

The Social Welfare Housing Project and Its Effects in China

It was planned to build 36 million units of social welfare housing during the twelve-five2011-2015 in China.This paper introduces the estimation of owner occupied dwelling sector and develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China’s real estate and macro-economy,to simulate the policy effects.The simulation results show that this policy can meet the increased requirements of housing demand due to fast urbanization and improvement of living conditions,therefore it will effectively cool down the price boom of housing market.Meanwhile,although the investment on social welfare housing will reduce the investment on other sectors,it will still stimulate GDP growth.