Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years

Knowledge of the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations throughout the Earth's history is important for a reconstruction of the links between climate and radiative forcing of the Earth's surface temperatures. Although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the early Cenozoic era (about 60 Myr ago) are widely believed to have been higher than at present, there is disagreement regarding the exact carbon dioxide levels, the timing of the decline and the mechanisms that are most important for the control of CO2 concentrations over geological timescales. Here we use the boron-isotope ratios of ancient planktonic foraminifer shells to estimate the pH of surface-layer sea water throughout the past 60 million years, which can be used to reconstruct atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago), and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial. Since the early Miocene (about 24 Myr ago), atmospheric CO2 concentrations appear to have remained below 500 p.p.m. and were more stable than before, although transient intervals of CO2 reduction may have occurred during periods of rapid cooling approximately 15 and 3 Myr ago.     

Thresholds for Cenozoic bipolar glaciation

The long-standing view of Earth's Cenozoic glacial history calls for the first continental-scale glaciation of Antarctica in the earliest Oligocene epoch ( approximately 33.6 million years ago), followed by the onset of northern-hemispheric glacial cycles in the late Pliocene epoch, about 31 million years later. The pivotal early Oligocene event is characterized by a rapid shift of 1.5 parts per thousand in deep-sea benthic oxygen-isotope values (Oi-1) within a few hundred thousand years, reflecting a combination of terrestrial ice growth and deep-sea cooling. The apparent absence of contemporaneous cooling in deep-sea Mg/Ca records, however, has been argued to reflect the growth of more ice than can be accommodated on Antarctica; this, combined with new evidence of continental cooling and ice-rafted debris in the Northern Hemisphere during this period, raises the possibility that Oi-1 represents a precursory bipolar glaciation. Here we test this hypothesis using an isotope-capable global climate/ice-sheet model that accommodates both the long-term decline of Cenozoic atmospheric CO(2) levels and the effects of orbital forcing. We show that the CO(2) threshold below which glaciation occurs in the Northern Hemisphere ( approximately 280 p.p.m.v.) is much lower than that for Antarctica ( approximately 750 p.p.m.v.). Therefore, the growth of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere immediately following Antarctic glaciation would have required rapid CO(2) drawdown within the Oi-1 timeframe, to levels lower than those estimated by geochemical proxies and carbon-cycle models. Instead of bipolar glaciation, we find that Oi-1 is best explained by Antarctic glaciation alone, combined with deep-sea cooling of up to 4 degrees C and Antarctic ice that is less isotopically depleted (-30 to -35 per thousand) than previously suggested. Proxy CO(2) estimates remain above our model's northern-hemispheric glaciation threshold of approximately 280 p.p.m.v. until approximately 25 Myr ago, but have been near or below that level ever since. This implies that episodic northern-hemispheric ice sheets have been possible some 20 million years earlier than currently assumed (although still much later than Oi-1) and could explain some of the variability in Miocene sea-level records.     

Late Miocene decoupling of oceanic warmth and atmospheric carbon dioxide forcing

Deep-time palaeoclimate studies are vitally important for developing a complete understanding of climate responses to changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (that is, the atmospheric partial pressure of CO(2), p(co(2))). Although past studies have explored these responses during portions of the Cenozoic era (the most recent 65.5 million years (Myr) of Earth history), comparatively little is known about the climate of the late Miocene (～12-5 Myr ago), an interval with p(co(2)) values of only 200-350?parts per million by volume but nearly ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and warmer-than-modern temperatures on the continents. Here we present quantitative geochemical sea surface temperature estimates from the Miocene mid-latitude North Pacific Ocean, and show that oceanic warmth persisted throughout the interval of low p(co(2)) ～12-5 Myr ago. We also present new stable isotope measurements from the western equatorial Pacific that, in conjunction with previously published data, reveal a long-term trend of thermocline shoaling in the equatorial Pacific since ～13?Myr ago. We propose that a relatively deep global thermocline, reductions in low-latitude gradients in sea surface temperature, and cloud and water vapour feedbacks may help to explain the warmth of the late Miocene. Additional shoaling of the thermocline after 5?Myr ago probably explains the stronger coupling between p(co(2)), sea surface temperatures and climate that is characteristic of the more recent Pliocene and Pleistocene epochs.     

Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures

For an accurate assessment of the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic influence in the Earth's climate, reconstructions of past temperatures from the pre-industrial as well as the industrial period are essential. But instrumental records are typically available for no more than the past 150 years. Therefore reconstructions of pre-industrial climate rely principally on traditional climate proxy records, each with particular strengths and limitations in representing climatic variability. Subsurface temperatures comprise an independent archive of past surface temperature changes that is complementary to both the instrumental record and the climate proxies. Here we use present-day temperatures in 616 boreholes from all continents except Antarctica to reconstruct century-long trends in temperatures over the past 500 years at global, hemispheric and continental scales. The results confirm the unusual warming of the twentieth century revealed by the instrumental record, but suggest that the cumulative change over the past five centuries amounts to about 1 K, exceeding recent estimates from conventional climate proxies. The strength of temperature reconstructions from boreholes lies in the detection of long-term trends, complementary to conventional climate proxies, but to obtain a complete picture of past warming, the differences between the approaches need to be investigated in detail.     

High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present

Changes in past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be determined by measuring the composition of air trapped in ice cores from Antarctica. So far, the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores have provided a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 650,000 years. Here we present results of the lowest 200 m of the Dome C ice core, extending the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by two complete glacial cycles to 800,000 yr before present. From previously published data and the present work, we find that atmospheric carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature throughout eight glacial cycles but with significantly lower concentrations between 650,000 and 750,000 yr before present. Carbon dioxide levels are below 180 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) for a period of 3,000 yr during Marine Isotope Stage 16, possibly reflecting more pronounced oceanic carbon storage. We report the lowest carbon dioxide concentration measured in an ice core, which extends the pre-industrial range of carbon dioxide concentrations during the late Quaternary by about 10 p.p.m.v. to 172-300 p.p.m.v.     

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.     

A carbon isotope challenge to the snowball Earth

The snowball Earth hypothesis postulates that the planet was entirely covered by ice for millions of years in the Neoproterozoic era, in a self-enhanced glaciation caused by the high albedo of the ice-covered planet. In a hard-snowball picture, the subsequent rapid unfreezing resulted from an ultra-greenhouse event attributed to the buildup of volcanic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) during glaciation. High partial pressures of atmospheric CO(2) (pCO2; from 20,000 to 90,000?p.p.m.v.) in the aftermath of the Marinoan glaciation (～635?Myr ago) have been inferred from both boron and triple oxygen isotopes. These pCO2 values are 50 to 225 times higher than present-day levels. Here, we re-evaluate these estimates using paired carbon isotopic data for carbonate layers that cap Neoproterozoic glacial deposits and are considered to record post-glacial sea level rise. The new data reported here for Brazilian cap carbonates, together with previous ones for time-equivalent units, provide estimates lower than 3,200?p.p.m.v.--and possibly as low as the current value of ～400?p.p.m.v. Our new constraint, and our re-interpretation of the boron and triple oxygen isotope data, provide a completely different picture of the late Neoproterozoic environment, with low atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and oxygen that are inconsistent with a hard-snowball Earth.     

Orbital and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years

Atmospheric methane is an important greenhouse gas and a sensitive indicator of climate change and millennial-scale temperature variability. Its concentrations over the past 650,000 years have varied between approximately 350 and approximately 800 parts per 10(9) by volume (p.p.b.v.) during glacial and interglacial periods, respectively. In comparison, present-day methane levels of approximately 1,770 p.p.b.v. have been reported. Insights into the external forcing factors and internal feedbacks controlling atmospheric methane are essential for predicting the methane budget in a warmer world. Here we present a detailed atmospheric methane record from the EPICA Dome C ice core that extends the history of this greenhouse gas to 800,000 yr before present. The average time resolution of the new data is approximately 380 yr and permits the identification of orbital and millennial-scale features. Spectral analyses indicate that the long-term variability in atmospheric methane levels is dominated by approximately 100,000 yr glacial-interglacial cycles up to approximately 400,000 yr ago with an increasing contribution of the precessional component during the four more recent climatic cycles. We suggest that changes in the strength of tropical methane sources and sinks (wetlands, atmospheric oxidation), possibly influenced by changes in monsoon systems and the position of the intertropical convergence zone, controlled the atmospheric methane budget, with an additional source input during major terminations as the retreat of the northern ice sheet allowed higher methane emissions from extending periglacial wetlands. Millennial-scale changes in methane levels identified in our record as being associated with Antarctic isotope maxima events are indicative of ubiquitous millennial-scale temperature variability during the past eight glacial cycles.     

Stability of atmospheric CO2 levels across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary

The Triassic/Jurassic boundary, 208 million years ago, is associated with widespread extinctions in both the marine and terrestrial biota. The cause of these extinctions has been widely attributed to the eruption of flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province. This volcanic event is thought to have released significant amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, which could have led to catastrophic greenhouse warming, but the evidence for CO2-induced extinction remains equivocal. Here we present the carbon isotope compositions of pedogenic calcite from palaeosol formations, spanning a 20-Myr period across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary. Using a standard diffusion model, we interpret these isotopic data to represent a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations of about 250 p.p.m. across the boundary, as compared with previous estimates of a 2,000-4,000 p.p.m. increase. The relative stability of atmospheric CO2 across this boundary suggests that environmental degradation and extinctions during the Early Jurassic were not caused by volcanic outgassing of CO2. Other volcanic effects-such as the release of atmospheric aerosols or tectonically driven sea-level change-may have been responsible for this event.     

Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data

A number of reconstructions of millennial-scale climate variability have been carried out in order to understand patterns of natural climate variability, on decade to century timescales, and the role of anthropogenic forcing. These reconstructions have mainly used tree-ring data and other data sets of annual to decadal resolution. Lake and ocean sediments have a lower time resolution, but provide climate information at multicentennial timescales that may not be captured by tree-ring data. Here we reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the past 2,000 years by combining low-resolution proxies with tree-ring data, using a wavelet transform technique to achieve timescale-dependent processing of the data. Our reconstruction shows larger multicentennial variability than most previous multi-proxy reconstructions, but agrees well with temperatures reconstructed from borehole measurements and with temperatures obtained with a general circulation model. According to our reconstruction, high temperatures--similar to those observed in the twentieth century before 1990--occurred around ad 1000 to 1100, and minimum temperatures that are about 0.7 K below the average of 1961-90 occurred around ad 1600. This large natural variability in the past suggests an important role of natural multicentennial variability that is likely to continue.     

The life span of the biosphere revisited

A decade ago, Lovelock and Whitfield raised the question of how much longer the biosphere can survive on Earth. They pointed out that, despite the current fossil-fuel induced increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the long-term trend should be in the opposite direction: as increased solar luminosity warms the Earth, silicate rocks should weather more readily, causing atmospheric CO2 to decrease. In their model, atmospheric CO2 falls below the critical level for C3 photosynthesis, 150 parts per million (p.p.m.), in only 100 Myr, and this is assumed to mark the demise of the biosphere as a whole. Here, we re-examine this problem using a more elaborate model that includes a more accurate treatment of the greenhouse effect of CO2, a biologically mediated weathering parameterization, and the realization that C4 photosynthesis can persist to much lower concentrations of atmospheric CO2(<10 p.p.m.). We find that a C4-plant-based biosphere could survive for at least another 0.9 Gyr to 1.5 Gyr after the present time, depending respectively on whether CO2 or temperature is the limiting factor. Within an additional 1 Gyr, Earth may lose its water to space, thereby following the path of its sister planet, Venus.     

Southern Ocean dust-climate coupling over the past four million years

Dust has the potential to modify global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and by supplying iron and other essential limiting micronutrients to the ocean. Indeed, dust supply to the Southern Ocean increases during ice ages, and 'iron fertilization' of the subantarctic zone may have contributed up to 40?parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) of the decrease (80-100 p.p.m.v.) in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed during late Pleistocene glacial cycles. So far, however, the magnitude of Southern Ocean dust deposition in earlier times and its role in the development and evolution of Pleistocene glacial cycles have remained unclear. Here we report a high-resolution record of dust and iron supply to the Southern Ocean over the past four million years, derived from the analysis of marine sediments from ODP Site 1090, located in the Atlantic sector of the subantarctic zone. The close correspondence of our dust and iron deposition records with Antarctic ice core reconstructions of dust flux covering the past 800,000 years (refs 8, 9) indicates that both of these archives record large-scale deposition changes that should apply to most of the Southern Ocean, validating previous interpretations of the ice core data. The extension of the record beyond the interval covered by the Antarctic ice cores reveals that, in contrast to the relatively gradual intensification of glacial cycles over the past three million years, Southern Ocean dust and iron flux rose sharply at the Mid-Pleistocene climatic transition around 1.25 million years ago. This finding complements previous observations over late Pleistocene glacial cycles, providing new evidence of a tight connection between high dust input to the Southern Ocean and the emergence of the deep glaciations that characterize the past one million years of Earth history.     

A humid climate state during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum

An abrupt climate warming of 5 to 10 degrees C during the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary thermal maximum (PETM) 55 Myr ago is linked to the catastrophic release of approximately 1,050-2,100 Gt of carbon from sea-floor methane hydrate reservoirs. Although atmospheric methane, and the carbon dioxide derived from its oxidation, probably contributed to PETM warming, neither the magnitude nor the timing of the climate change is consistent with direct greenhouse forcing by the carbon derived from methane hydrate. Here we demonstrate significant differences between marine and terrestrial carbon isotope records spanning the PETM. We use models of key carbon cycle processes to identify the cause of these differences. Our results provide evidence for a previously unrecognized discrete shift in the state of the climate system during the PETM, characterized by large increases in mid-latitude tropospheric humidity and enhanced cycling of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems. A more humid atmosphere helps to explain PETM temperatures, but the ultimate mechanisms underlying the shift remain unknown.     

Changes in carbon dioxide during an oceanic anoxic event linked to intrusion into Gondwana coals

The marine sedimentary record exhibits evidence for episodes of enhanced organic carbon burial known as 'oceanic anoxic events' (OAEs). They are characterized by carbon-isotope excursions in marine and terrestrial reservoirs and mass extinction of marine faunas. Causal mechanisms for the enhancement of organic carbon burial during OAEs are still debated, but it is thought that such events should draw down significant quantities of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In the case of the Toarcian OAE (approximately 183 million years ago), a short-lived negative carbon-isotope excursion in oceanic and terrestrial reservoirs has been interpreted to indicate raised atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by oxidation of methane catastrophically released from either marine gas hydrates or magma-intruded organic-rich rocks. Here we test these two leading hypotheses for a negative carbon isotopic excursion marking the initiation of the Toarcian OAE using a high-resolution atmospheric carbon dioxide record obtained from fossil leaf stomatal frequency. We find that coincident with the negative carbon-isotope excursion carbon dioxide is first drawn down by 350 +/- 100 p.p.m.v. and then abruptly elevated by 1,200 +/- 400 p.p.m.v, and infer a global cooling and greenhouse warming of 2.5 +/- 0.1 degrees C and 6.5 +/- 1 degrees C, respectively. The pattern and magnitude of carbon dioxide change are difficult to reconcile with catastrophic input of isotopically light methane from hydrates as the cause of the negative isotopic signal. Our carbon dioxide record better supports a magma-intrusion hypothesis, and suggests that injection of isotopically light carbon from the release of thermogenic methane occurred owing to the intrusion of Gondwana coals by Toarcian-aged Karoo-Ferrar dolerites.     

Covariation of carbon dioxide and temperature from the Vostok ice core after deuterium-excess correction

Ice-core measurements of carbon dioxide and the deuterium palaeothermometer reveal significant covariation of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout the climate cycles of the past ice ages. This covariation provides compelling evidence that CO2 is an important forcing factor for climate. But this interpretation is challenged by some substantial mismatches of the CO2 and deuterium records, especially during the onset of the last glaciation, about 120 kyr ago. Here we incorporate measurements of deuterium excess from Vostok in the temperature reconstruction and show that much of the mismatch is an artefact caused by variations of climate in the water vapour source regions. Using a model that corrects for this effect, we derive a new estimate for the covariation of CO2 and temperature, of r2 = 0.89 for the past 150 kyr and r2 = 0.84 for the period 350-150 kyr ago. Given the complexity of the biogeochemical systems involved, this close relationship strongly supports the importance of carbon dioxide as a forcing factor of climate. Our results also suggest that the mechanisms responsible for the drawdown of CO2 may be more responsive to temperature than previously thought.     

Detection and classification of atmospheric methane oxidizing bacteria in soil

Well-drained non-agricultural soils mediate the oxidation of methane directly from the atmosphere, contributing 5 to 10% towards the global methane sink. Studies of methane oxidation kinetics in soil infer the activity of two methanotrophic populations: one that is only active at high methane concentrations (low affinity) and another that tolerates atmospheric levels of methane (high affinity). The activity of the latter has not been demonstrated by cultured laboratory strains of methanotrophs, leaving the microbiology of methane oxidation at atmospheric concentrations unclear. Here we describe a new pulse-chase experiment using long-term enrichment with 12CH4 followed by short-term exposure to 13CH4 to isotopically label methanotrophs in a soil from a temperate forest. Analysis of labelled phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) provided unambiguous evidence of methane assimilation at true atmospheric concentrations (1.8-3.6 p.p.m.v.). High proportions of 13C-labelled C18 fatty acids and the co-occurrence of a labelled, branched C17 fatty acid indicated that a new methanotroph, similar at the PLFA level to known type II methanotrophs, was the predominant soil micro-organism responsible for atmospheric methane oxidation.     

Constant elevation of southern Tibet over the past 15 million years

The uplift of the Tibetan plateau, an area that is 2,000 km wide, to an altitude of about 5,000 m has been shown to modify global climate and to influence monsoon intensity. Mechanical and thermal models for homogeneous thickening of the lithosphere make specific predictions about uplift rates of the Tibetan plateau, but the precise history of the uplift of the plateau has yet to be confirmed by observations. Here we present well-preserved fossil leaf assemblages from the Namling basin, southern Tibet, dated to approximately 15 Myr ago, which allow us to reconstruct the temperatures within the basin at that time. Using a numerical general circulation model to estimate moist static energy at the location of the fossil leaves, we reconstruct the elevation of the Namling basin 15 Myr ago to be 4,689 +/- 895 m or 4,638 +/- 847 m, depending on the reference data used. This is comparable to the present-day altitude of 4,600 m. We conclude that the elevation of the southern Tibetan plateau probably has remained unchanged for the past 15 Myr.     

Triple oxygen isotope evidence for elevated CO2 levels after a Neoproterozoic glaciation

Understanding the composition of the atmosphere over geological time is critical to understanding the history of the Earth system, as the atmosphere is closely linked to the lithosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere. Although much of the history of the lithosphere and hydrosphere is contained in rock and mineral records, corresponding information about the atmosphere is scarce and elusive owing to the lack of direct records. Geologists have used sedimentary minerals, fossils and geochemical models to place constraints on the concentrations of carbon dioxide, oxygen or methane in the past. Here we show that the triple oxygen isotope composition of sulphate from ancient evaporites and barites shows variable negative oxygen-17 isotope anomalies over the past 750 million years. We propose that these anomalies track those of atmospheric oxygen and in turn reflect the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (P(CO2)) in the past through a photochemical reaction network linking stratospheric ozone to carbon dioxide and to oxygen. Our results suggest that P(CO2) was much higher in the early Cambrian than in younger eras, agreeing with previous modelling results. We also find that the (17)O isotope anomalies of barites from Marinoan (approximately 635 million years ago) cap carbonates display a distinct negative spike (around -0.70 per thousand), suggesting that by the time barite was precipitating in the immediate aftermath of a Neoproterozoic global glaciation, the P(CO2) was at its highest level in the past 750 million years. Our finding is consistent with the 'snowball Earth' hypothesis and/or a massive methane release after the Marinoan glaciation.     

Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years

A firm understanding of the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature is critical for interpreting past climate change and for predicting future climate change. A recent synthesis suggests that the increase in global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed 'climate sensitivity', is between 1.5 and 6.2 degrees C (5-95 per cent likelihood range), but some evidence is inconsistent with this range. Moreover, most estimates of climate sensitivity are based on records of climate change over the past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than today, so such calculations tend to underestimate the magnitude of large climate-change events and may not be applicable to climate change under warmer conditions in the future. Here we estimate long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity by modelling carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 420 million years and comparing our calculations with a proxy record. Our estimates are broadly consistent with estimates based on short-term climate records, and indicate that a weak radiative forcing by carbon dioxide is highly unlikely on multi-million-year timescales. We conclude that a climate sensitivity greater than 1.5 degrees C has probably been a robust feature of the Earth's climate system over the past 420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling.     

Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries

The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed climate sensitivity, is 1.5-4.5 K (ref. 2). A number of observational studies, however, find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K (refs 3-8). Here we demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, we find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very similar to those from instrumental data. If the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions, then the 5-95 per cent range shrinks to 1.5-6.2 K, thus substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity.