Predictivism and the periodic table

This is a comment on the paper by Barnes (2005) and the responses from Scerri (2005) and Worrall (2005), debating the thesis (‘predictivism’) that a fact successfully predicted by a theory is stronger evidence than a similar fact known before the prediction was made. Since Barnes and Scerri both use evidence presented in my paper on Mendeleev’s periodic law (Brush, 1996) to support their views, I reiterate my own position on predictivism. I do not argue for or against predictivism in the normative sense that philosophers of science employ, rather I describe how scientists themselves use facts and predictions to support their theories. I find wide variations, and no support for the assumption that scientists use a single ‘Scientific Method’ in deciding whether to accept a proposed new theory.     

Novelty,coherence, and Mendeleev’s periodic table

Predictivism is the view that successful predictions of “novel” evidence carry more confirmational weight than accommodations of already known evidence. Novelty, in this context, has traditionally been conceived of as temporal novelty. However temporal predictivism has been criticized for lacking a rationale: why should the time order of theory and evidence matter? Instead, it has been proposed, novelty should be construed in terms of use-novelty, according to which evidence is novel if it was not used in the construction of a theory. Only if evidence is use-novel can it fully support the theory entailing it. As I point out in this paper, the writings of the most influential proponent of use-novelty contain a weaker and a stronger version of use-novelty. However both versions, I argue, are problematic. With regard to the appraisal of Mendeleev’ periodic table, the most contentious historical case in the predictivism debate, I argue that temporal predictivism is indeed supported, although in ways not previously appreciated. On the basis of this case, I argue for a form of so-called symptomatic predictivism according to which temporally novel predictions carry more confirmational weight only insofar as they reveal the theory’s presumed coherence of facts as real.     

Objectivity in confirmation: Post hoc monsters and novel predictions

The aim of this paper is to put in place some cornerstones in the foundations for an objective theory of confirmation by considering lessons from the failures of predictivism. Discussion begins with a widely accepted challenge, to find out what is needed in addition to the right kind of inferential–semantical relations between hypothesis and evidence to have a complete account of confirmation, one that gives a definitive answer to the question whether hypotheses branded as “post hoc monsters” can be confirmed. The predictivist view is then presented as a way to meet this challenge. Particular attention is paid to Worrall’s version of predictivism, as it appears to be the most sophisticated of the lot. It is argued that, despite its faults, his view turns our heads in the right direction by attempting to remove contingent considerations from confirmational matters. The demand to remove such considerations becomes the first of four cornerstones. Each cornerstone is put in place with the aim to steer clear of the sort of failures that plague various kinds of predictivism. In the process, it becomes obvious that the original challenge is wrongheaded and in need of revision. The paper ends with just such a revision.     

Inhibitor of the oxidation of catechin released from the roots of corn seedlings

Summary When the specific activities of the catechin oxidases (catechin as the substrate) which were released from the roots of the seedlings of alfalfa, tomato, wheat, lettuce and corn were compared, it was found that the oxidizing activity was absent from the root exudate of corn seedlings. A 6.3 kDa protein was purified from the root exudate of corn seedlings and in the presence of this protein, the oxidation of catechin was inhibited. This inhibitor is responsible for the inability of the root exudate of corn seedlings to oxidize catechin.     

On the epistemological foundations of the law of the lever

In this paper I challenge Paolo Palmieri’s reading of the Mach—Vailati debate on Archimedes’ proof of the law of the lever. I argue that the actual import of the debate concerns the possible epistemic (as opposed to merely pragmatic) role of mathematical arguments in empirical physics, and that construed in this light Vailati carries the upper hand. This claim is defended by showing that Archimedes’ proof of the law of the lever is not a way of appealing to a non-empirical source of information, but a way of explicating the mathematical structure that can represent the empirical information at our disposal in the most general way.     

The role of meta-empirical theory assessment in the acceptance of atomism

The universal acceptance of atomism in physics and chemistry in the early 20th century went along with an altered view on the epistemic status of microphysical conjectures. Contrary to the prevalent understanding during the 19th century, on the new view unobservable objects could be ‘discovered’. It is argued in the present paper that this shift can be connected to the implicit integration of elements of meta-empirical theory assessment into the concept of theory confirmation.     

The Whewell-Mill debate on predictions,from Mill's point of view

John Stuart Mill, in his debate with William Whewell on the nature and logic of induction, is regarded as being the first to dismiss the supposed value of successful predictions as merely psychological. I shall argue that this view of the Whewell-Mill debate on predictions misconstrues Mill’s position and argument. From Mill’s point of view, the controversial point was not the question whether predictions ‘count more’ than ex-post explanations but the alleged assertion by Whewell that the successful predictions of the wave theory of light prove the existence of the ether. Mill argued that, on the one hand, the predictions of the wave theory of light do not and cannot provide evidence for the existence of the ether; as evidence for the laws of the theory, on the other hand, the predictions are superfluous, the laws being already well-confirmed. Mill actually endorsed a requirement of independent support closely resembling Whewell’s requirements for hypotheses; the controversy on the value of predictions is a product of the 20th century.     

The Limits of Information

Black holes have their own thermodynamics including notions of entropy and temperature and versions of the three laws. After a light introduction to black hole physics, I recollect how black hole thermodynamics evolved in the 1970s, while at the same time stressing conceptual points which were given little thought at that time, such as why the entropy should be linear in the black hole's surface area. I also review a variety of attempts made over the years to provide a statistical mechanics for black hole thermodynamics. Finally, I discuss the origin of the information bounds for ordinary systems that have arisen as applications of black hole thermodynamics.     

The astrorhizae of fossil stromatoporoids closely approximate an energetically optimal fluid transport system

Direct measurements on 375 million year old stromatoporoid sponges show that the astrorhizal canals (excurrent flow channels) have a near-optimal architecture; they are configured such that the energetic costs to construct and operate these fluid transport systems averaged only 2.54% above those of equivalent Murray's Law systems, the theoretical minimum. The average cost incurred by the fluid transport system in stromatoporoids was a factor of three closer to the Murray's Law optimum than are vessel networks in the circulatory system of mammals.     

The roots of the silver tree: Boyle,alchemy, and teleology

Though Robert Boyle called final causes one of the most important subjects for a natural philosopher to study, his own treatise on the subject, the Disquisition about Final Causes, has received comparatively little scholarly attention. In this paper, I explicate Boyle's complex argument against the use of teleological explanations for inanimate bodies, such as metals. The central object of this argument is a mysterious allusion to a silver plant. I claim that the silver plant is best understood as a reference to alchemical product: the Arbor Dianae, an offshoot of George Starkey's recipe for the Philosophers' Stone. Then, I show how the context of alchemy not only clarifies Boyle's argument but also places it within a wider dialectic about matter and teleology. I then contrast the parallel arguments of Boyle and John Ray on the question of whether metals have divine purposes and show that the difference is explained by Boyle's belief in the transmutation of metals.     

能源工程的发展与展望

本文内容主要包括阐述能源科学对国民经济发展的重要性，论述能源科学今后的发展方向，提高煤炭、石油、天然气利用效率，采用洁净煤技术，开发利用清洁能源与可再生能源，同时展望未来应采取有力措施研究能源新技术，为人类创造优美、洁净、和谐的生态环境，为我国经济可持续发展建立重要的物质基础。     

世界科学活动中心转移的历史初探

近代世界科学活动中心经历了从意大利→英国→法国→德国→美国的转移，为什么这些国家在一定时期可以成为世界科学中心?一般而言，这个国家或地区由于战争或革命得到特殊的条件，人们的思想得到前所未有的解放，如意大利的文艺复兴运动、法国的启蒙运动，然后，由于资产阶级的需要，大规模的引进科学技术和智力，充分利用先进地区和国家的科技成果推动这个地区科学技术和生产力的飞速发展，从而成为世界科学活动中心。     

从博弈论谈南水北调西线工程的四川对策

南水北调西线工程,从博弈论的角度考虑,属于非零和博弈,各方效益的和大于零,从而具有南北两利的可能.四川的最佳策略,应根据西北的优势策略和中央的决策而选择,应坚持有偿调水,有偿调水可以实现南水北调博弈的纳什均衡.在西线工程中,应将调水藏区的可持续发展和民族区域的稳定作为四川的重点战略选择,借机推动藏区社会经济的跨越式发展.     

The history of science as the progress of the human spirit: The historiography of astronomy in the eighteenth century

In the eighteenth century, the historiography of astronomy was part of a wider discussion concerning the history of the human spirit. The concept of the human spirit was very popular among Enlightenment authors because it gave the history of human knowledge continuity, unity and meaning. Using this concept, scientists and historians of science such as Montucla, Lalande, Bailly and Laplace could present the history of astronomy in terms of a progress towards contemporary science that was slow and could be interrupted at times, but was still constant, regular, and necessary. In my paper I intend to explain how the originally philosophical concept of the human spirit was transferred to the history of astronomy. I also introduce the basic principles to which the development of the spirit is subject in astronomy, according to historians of astronomy. The third part of the paper describes how historians of astronomy took into account the effect of social and natural factors on the history of astronomy.     

Prediction in context: On the comparative epistemic merit of predictive success

The considerations set out in the paper are intended to suggest that in practical contexts predictive power does not play the outstanding roles sometimes accredited to it in an epistemic framework. Rather, predictive power is part of a network of other merits and achievements. Predictive power needs to be judged differently according to the specific conditions that apply. First, predictions need to be part of an explanatory framework if they are supposed to guide actions reliably. Second, in scientific expertise, the demand for accurate predictions is replaced with the objective of specifying a robust corridor of estimates. Finally, it is highly uncertain to predict the success of research projects. The overall purpose of the paper is to enlarge the debate about predictions by addressing specifically the roles of predictions in application-oriented research.     

基于模糊综合理论的铁路建设项目综合后评价研究

进入21世纪以来,铁路作为人类社会赖以生存的基础设施,一直在国家固定资产投资中占据着主导地位,因此,如何提高铁路建设项目的质量就显得尤为关键。本文提出铁路建设项目综合后评价的概念,并将铁路建设项目综合后评价的内容概括为工程管理水平、投融资管理水平和财务效益水平三个部分。在此基础上,建立了基于模糊综合理论的铁路建设项目综合后评价的模糊综合评价模型,并通过实例验证了该模型的实用性。     

锂离子电池失效的快速判定

通过锂离子单体电池的循环寿命实验,分析了该电池的充放电电流,电压以及内阻随循环次数的老化特性.研究发现,随着充放电次数的增加,电池在恒流阶段充入的容量占总容量的百分比的变化趋势和电池内阻变化相一致,因此可以根据恒流充电的时间来快速判定电池的衰减程度.     

Asymptotic prediction of mean squared error for long-memory processes with estimated parameters

In this paper we deal with the prediction theory of long-memory time series. The purpose is to derive a general theory of the convergence of moments of the nonlinear least squares estimator so as to evaluate the asymptotic prediction mean squared error (PMSE). The asymptotic PMSE of two predictors is evaluated. The first is defined by the estimator of the differencing parameter, while the second is defined by a fixed differencing parameter: in other words, a parametric predictor of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. The effects of misspecifying the differencing parameter is a long-memory model are clarified by the asymptotic results relating to the PMSE. The finite sample behaviour of the predictor and the model selection in terms of PMSE of the two predictors are examined using simulation, and the source of any differences in behaviour made clear in terms of asymptotic theory. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.