Control charts to check yearly predictions by monthly observations

In many cases an organization makes predictions of a variable on a yearly scale although the variable is actually observed at shorter time intervals. Given such a yearly prediction, the question will arise as to under which conditions one can say that the actual development of the variable at shorter time intervals deviates so much from the year estimate as to render the latter implausible. Policy makers confronted with such a problem tend to use rather primitive statistical methods of inference. In this paper the situation is judged from a statistical point of view and placed in the context of the ‘significance test’ approach to control chart theory. It is assumed that the variables are generated by a multivariate autoregressive moving average model. Thus we derive an approximate distribution of the future observations of the series given the values of some linear compounds of the variables. With this, three control charts can be constructed. The approach is illustrated by an example based on the monthly tax returns of the Dutch central government. The example suggests the usefulness of the approach in many practical situations of forecasting and planning.     

A simple check of the time homogeneity of Markov chains

In this paper we consider a population where the state of each individual follows a Markov chain. If the population is recorded for a very few periods only, it is still possible to estimate the transition matrix and to make projections into the far future. These forecasts are sensible if the chains are time homogeneous, but this is difficult to check if only a few periods are observed. We suggest a simple method to check this assumption, and obtain an upper bound on the time the process can have been time homogeneous. The method is also applied to a second-order Markov chain and to the mover-stayer model. AMS subject classification (1980): Primary 62M05, Secondary 62M20.     

Evaluating predictive performance of value‐at‐risk models in emerging markets: a reality check

We investigate the predictive performance of various classes of value‐at‐risk (VaR) models in several dimensions—unfiltered versus filtered VaR models, parametric versus nonparametric distributions, conventional versus extreme value distributions, and quantile regression versus inverting the conditional distribution function. By using the reality check test of White (2000), we compare the predictive power of alternative VaR models in terms of the empirical coverage probability and the predictive quantile loss for the stock markets of five Asian economies that suffered from the 1997–1998 financial crisis. The results based on these two criteria are largely compatible and indicate some empirical regularities of risk forecasts. The Riskmetrics model behaves reasonably well in tranquil periods, while some extreme value theory (EVT)‐based models do better in the crisis period. Filtering often appears to be useful for some models, particularly for the EVT models, though it could be harmful for some other models. The CaViaR quantile regression models of Engle and Manganelli (2004) have shown some success in predicting the VaR risk measure for various periods, generally more stable than those that invert a distribution function. Overall, the forecasting performance of the VaR models considered varies over the three periods before, during and after the crisis. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simple apparatus for perfusion fixation for electron microscopy.

Control on duration of application and pressure of fixative is achieved with an apparatus of simple construction. This allows optimal fixation of laboratory animals for morphological and cytochemical studies.     

A method for purifying rat myoglobin for kinetic studies

Résumé Une technique est décrite pour préparer de la myoglobine pure par fractionnement avec sulfate d'ammonium.

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This research was aided by the U.S. Air Force School of Aviation Medicine, Randolf AFB, under contract AF 18(600)-940 and the National Institutes of Health under grant RG-5112(RI). This is paper No. 2342 in the Pennsylvania Agricultural Experiment Station.     

欧美国家教育质量管理奖对我国的启示

随着教育的改革和发展,教育质量的提高越来越被教育管理着所重视。通过介绍欧美国家教育质量管理奖,并分析比较其教育质量观与中国教育质量观的共同点和差异,旨在为我国建立国家教育质量管理奖提供启示。     

ACTH antibodies and their use for a radio-immunoassay for ACTH

Résumé Des anticorps anti-ACTH ont été produits. Ils forment avec l'ACTH un complexe non précipitable. Ils ont servi au développement d'un test radio-immunologique de détermination de l'ACTH.     

An improved electrophoretic method for a screening program for haemoglobinopathies

Summary A method for a screening program for haemoglobinopathies in a starch agar gel mixed with saponin is presented. Normal and abnormal blood containing haemoglobins S, C, I, M Boston, D Punjab, beta thalassaemia major and beta thalassaemia minor, were applied, in a tray with the capacity for 100 samples. The electrophoresis was performed in 45 min using 300 V. This method offers special advantages for the examination of a large number of samples, using a small amount of whole blood and without the previous preparation of haemoglobin solution.Acknowledgments. We would like to express our gratitude to Dr C. Daghlian and Dr Lewis J. Greene for their valuable suggestions. We also thank the Conselho Nacional do Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, CNPq, for financial support.     

A markup model for forecasting inflation for the euro area

We develop a small model for forecasting inflation for the euro area using quarterly data over the period June 1973 to March 1999. The model is used to provide inflation forecasts from June 1999 to March 2002. We compare the forecasts from our model with those derived from six competing forecasting models, including autoregressions, vector autoregressions and Phillips‐curve based models. A considerable gain in forecasting performance is demonstrated using a relative root mean squared error criterion and the Diebold–Mariano test to make forecast comparisons. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Econophysics for philosophers

In this essay review article I present a philosophers’ guide to econophysics, a relatively new field that applies the concepts and methods of statistical physics (and, more generally, other areas of physics) to economics (especially the economics of financial markets). I do this by looking at eleven recent books on econophysics.     

Waiting for Landauer

Landauer's Principle asserts that there is an unavoidable cost in thermodynamic entropy creation when data is erased. It is usually derived from incorrect assumptions, most notably, that erasure must compress the phase space of a memory device or that thermodynamic entropy arises from the probabilistic uncertainty of random data. Recent work seeks to prove Landauer's Principle without using these assumptions. I show that the processes assumed in the proof, and in the thermodynamics of computation more generally, can be combined to produce devices that both violate the second law and erase data without entropy cost, indicating an inconsistency in the theoretical system. Worse, the standard repertoire of processes selectively neglects thermal fluctuations. Concrete proposals for how we might measure dissipationlessly and expand single molecule gases reversibly are shown to be fatally disrupted by fluctuations. Reversible, isothermal processes on molecular scales are shown to be disrupted by fluctuations that can only be overcome by introducing entropy creating, dissipative processes.