Connection between interannual variability of the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans in the 1997 - 1998 El Nino event

In this paper, the sea surface height and the heat content of the upper ocean are analyzed to retrieve the relationship of interannual variabilities between the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans during the 1997 - 1998 El Nino event. In the prophase of this El Nino, the negative sea level anomalies (SLA) occurred in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) firstly, and then appeared in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEI). The negative heat content anomalies (HCA) emerged in the TWP before this El Nino burst while the SLA signals developed over there. During the mature stage of this El Nino, two kinds of signals in the TWP and TEI turned to be the maximum negative sequently. Due to the connected interannual adjustment between the TEI and TWP, we adopted a method to estimate the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport by calculating the HCA budget in the TEI. The indirect estimation of the ITF was comparable to the observation values. Therefore, the anomalies in the TEI had been proved as adv     

Indonesian Throughflow in an eddy-resolving ocean model

The performance of the eddy-resolving LICOM2.0 in simulating the Indonesian Throughflow has been evaluated against the INSTANT data in the present study. The mean vertical structures of the along strait velocities are simulated well in LICOM2.0, but the large velocities at the bottom of the Lifamatola Passage and the Timor Passage cannot be reproduced by LICOM2.0. The causes are considered to be both the errors in the topography and the tidal mixing at the bottom. Despite several biases in the mean velocities, the mean inflow and outflow volume transports in LICOM2.0 are almost identical to the INSTANT data. Com- pared with the lower resolution LICOM, the most significant improvement is the better simulation of the partitions of the inflow and outflow transports in individual straits. The outflow for low-resolution LICOM is mainly through the Ombai and Lombok Strait, whereas that for LICOM2.0 is mainly through the Timor Passage. The variability of the vertical structure of velocities and the volume transport are also investigated, LICOM2.0 overestimates the magnitude of the upper-layer currents and the amplitude of the variation. We also found that the largest correlation coefficient occurs in the shallowest strait, the Lombok, whereas the lowest occurs in the Timor Passage, especially in the upper layer. The latter may be caused by the unrealistic transport through the Torres Strait in LICOM2.0.     

Connection between interannual variability of the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans in the 1997～1998 El Niño event

In this paper,the sea surface height and the heat content of the upper ocean are analyzed to retrieve the relationship of interannual variabilities between the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans during the 1997～1998 El Ni(n)o event.In the prophase of this El Ni(n)o,the negative sea level anomalies (SLA) occurred in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) firstly,and then appeared in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEI).The negative heat content anomalies (HCA) emerged in the TWP before this El Ni?o burst while the SLA signals developed over there.During the mature stage of this El Ni(n)o,two kinds of signals in the TWP and TEI turned to be the maximum negative sequently.Due to the connected interannual adjustment between the TEI and TWP,we adopted a method to estimate the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport by calculating the HCA budget in the TEI.The indirect estimation of the ITF was comparable to the observation values.Therefore,the anomalies in the TEI had been proved as advecting from the TWP through the ITF during the 1997～1998 El Ni(n)o.     

热带印度洋海面温度与高度的相关性分析

基于海面温度与海面高度异常的月均数据,采用EOF、SVD和功率谱分析等方法,对热带印度洋海面温度与海面高度进行特征分析,研究两者在时空结构上的相关性。利用EOF方法分析出海面温度第二模态与海面高度第一模态的空间结构类似,呈现偶极型。相关分析与功率谱表明,两模态的时间序列存在滞后相关和类似的周期结构。SVD结果显示,第一耦合模态的相关系数达0.7左右,且左右场的空间形态呈现东西反相。这表明,海面高度偶极型与海面温度的单极型和偶极型存在着相关。同时,海面高度指数也表现与偶极子指数类似的结构特征。针对上述诊断分析事实特征,对海面温度和海面高度偶极子形成的物理机制进行了初步分析,总结了前人所做的一些工作,指出其中可能的影响因素。     

连云港、吕泗海域的海表温度变化及影响机制

通过对连云港海域(1976-2008)、吕泗海域(1960-1990)30年左右的海表温度(SST)资料进行随机动态分析;并计算了SST与Nio3.4指数、海表热通量和海面风场的相关系数。研究结果表明:从1976-2008年连云港的SST呈现长期升高的趋势,32年间约上升0.9℃;从1960-1990年吕泗的SST呈现下降的趋势,30年间共下降约0.22℃。月均的SST最大熵谱分析揭示了两站的SST具有12个月和6个月的显著变化周期,此外还有准2 a的振荡周期。东赤道太平洋海温的异常对连云港、吕泗海域的SST有一定的影响,热通量是影响连云港海域SST变化的部分因素,仅通过海面热通量的变化无法解释连云港海域海表温度升高的现象,海洋动力过程对SST的贡献不能忽略。连云港、吕泗海域的SST变化与风场的变化显著相关。     

格陵兰海冰盖与混合层深度及海表温度之间的关系分析

研究了在北极格陵兰海（20°W-10°E,65°N-85°N）,2003-2012年冰盖（ICE）、混合层深度（MLD）和海表温度（SST）的分布及之间的耦合关系．研究发现,ICE和SST在区域内存在着很强的负相关关系,相关系数达0．9以上,尤其是在750N-800N区域,峰值的时间间隔调整后．相关性更加显著．通过Eviews滞后回归分析发现,SST在70°N-750N和75°N-80°N分别滞后ICE7个月和4个月．而且ICE和SST之间存在着协整。说明这两者长期存在均衡关系．ICE和MLD在区域内为负相关关系．尤其是75°N-80°N区域,相关系数达0．82以上．回归分析发现,MLD在70°N-75°N和75°N-80°N分剐滞后ICE1个月和4个月．而且两者之间也有长期的均衡关系．总体来看：随着温度的升高,冰盖在8—9月达到低谷;海表温度夏天高、冬天低;混合层深度冬季深、夏季浅．冰盖的大量融化和海表温度、混合层深度有着很大的关系．     

实时定标红外测温法测量海水表面温度

由于地球表面的70%是海洋,所以海洋各特征参数是直接反应全球气候、生物繁衍等各个方面情况的重要指标,其中海水表面温度是海洋特征参数中一个非常重要的参数指标.本文从红外测温的基本原理出发,探讨并介绍了在复杂的外界环境中如何避开海水表面辐射率修正的困难,实时定标红外测温仪来测量海水表面温度的方法.     

江淮流域梅雨期雨量的变化特征及其与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异

运用相关分析和滑动相关方法,分析了江淮流域5个代表站1903-2000年梅雨期雨量的变化特征及其与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异.结果表明,江淮地区梅雨期雨量在近百年来存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征.通过分析梅雨期雨量与太平洋海温的年代际相关特征发现,江淮流域梅雨期雨量与前期及同期太平洋海温关系密切,前一年冬季及梅雨期东北太平洋海温与江淮流域梅雨期雨量负相关,在热带东太平洋的Nino1 2区两者正相关显著,同年春季西太平洋部分海域海温与江淮流域梅雨期雨量正相关.从年际相关分析发现,前一年冬季太平洋海温与梅雨期雨量正相关,同年春季以及梅雨期两者相关不明显.通过分析年代际差异发现,江淮流域梅雨期雨量与前期及同期热带太平洋关键区海温的21a滑动相关存在显著的年代际差异,这种差异与海温的21a滑动平均的年代际冷暖背景关系密切,热带太平洋海温关键区前一年冬季冷海温背景下,梅雨期雨量同海温正相关显著,同年春季暖海温背景下,两者之间负相关显著,而江淮流域梅雨期雨量同中国近海海温之间(从冬季到梅雨期)维持显著的正相关,与该区海温冷暖背景的关系则并不明显.     

ENSO事件对云南短期气侯影响的研究

利用云南1951～1997年逐月降水和气温资料和全于1951～1997年月平均海温资料,统计了云南降水和气温对赤道东太平洋海表温度变化的响应,结果表明：云南降水和气温与赤道东太平洋海温的异常有着密切的关系。     

ENSO年份的确定及其典型事件分析

通过分析1948—2001年Nino3海区SSTA、南方涛动指数（SOI）,确定了ENSO循环中冷、暖事件的起止年月。     

基于时序挖掘的时间融合算法及在海表面温度预测中的应用

使用序列挖掘的时间融合模型研究数字海洋中海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)预测,对基于时序的动态SST数据进行推测.提出基于平滑处理与支持度判断的抛物线回归模型方法,通过对曲线拐点判断方法的改进,改善抛物线回归模型在趋势预测方面存在的不足.试验证明此方法对发展趋势较为平稳的SST数据具有较好的预测效果.     

Abrupt climate change of EastAsian Monsoon at 130 kaBP inferred from a high resolu-tion stalagmite δ18O record

^230Th ages and oxygen isotope data of a stalagmite from Shanbao Cave in Hubei Province characterize the East Asian Monsoon precipitation from 133 to 127ka. The decadal-scale high-resolution δ^18O record reveals a detailed transitional process from the Penultimate Glaciation to the Last Interglaciation. As established with ^230Th dates, the age of the Termination Ⅱ is determined to be 129.5±1.0 kaBP, which supports the Northern Hemisphere insolation as the triggers for the ice-age cycles. In our δ^18O record, the glacial/interglacial fluctuation reaches about 4‰, almost the same level as in other Asian Monsoon cave stalagmite δ^18O records. The transition of the glacial/interglacial period in our record can be recognized as four stepwise stages, among which, a rapid rise of monsoon precipitation follows the stage of “Termination Ⅱ pause”. The rapid rise is synchronous with the abrupt change of global methane concentration, which reflects that an increase in both Asian Monsoon precipitation and tropical wetland plays an important role in the global climate changes.     

热带海温异常与南海夏季风建立迟早的初步研究

利用NCEP再分析的海表温度场、风场、高度场的格点资料,应用合成和相关分析等方法,初步探讨了热带印度洋和热带太平洋海温异常与南海夏季风建立的关系.研究结果表明,热带印度洋和热带太平洋海温异常在有些年份并不同号,从而对南海夏季风建立迟早的影响并不完全一致.进一步分析表明,热带印度洋和热带太平洋海温异常可能是通过影响热带地区Walker环流建立和加强,进而南海夏季风建立的迟早.     

根据MODIS数据研究海岸河口水域上升流现象

基于MODIS数据反演得到Mackenzie河口2007年8-9月海洋表面温度分布,结合该河口Pelly气象站实测风速、风向数据,分析Mackenzie河口水域的上升流特点,重点分析上升流的产生条件、发展、强度,以及它们随纬度、风向及风速的变化关系。结果表明：当东向风(160o~200o)吹刮时间长于半天时,即有上升流产生,且东风时(180o)最强烈;东向风持续吹刮时,风速越大,上升流现象越强烈、影响范围越广。