First births by age and education in Britain, France and Norway

Progressively later starting of childbearing has been a feature of cohort change in fertility across Europe and elsewhere over recent decades. Growing differences in the age patterns of childbearing between the Anglo-American and continental European countries, however, have also been found. The present study uses large linked-record databases in Britain, France and Norway to analyse these differences in more detail, focussing on age at entry to motherhood (first childbearing) by level of educational attainment among women born in the 1950s and in the 1960s. The shift between these two cohorts towards a later pattern of first childbearing in Britain was confined to women with secondary school qualifications and above. For women born in the 1960s, the peak age for risk of first childbearing among those with secondary school qualifications grew to be between seven and eleven years later than among women without secondary school qualifications. In France and Norway, the peak ages for risk of first childbearing shifted more uniformly across education levels between the two cohorts. For these 1950s and 1960s cohorts, improvements in women's educational levels also occurred more uniformly in France and Norway, moving more women into education categories characterised by later patterns of first childbearing.     

Childbearing outside marriage in western Europe

Across most European states in recent decades there have been significant increases in childbearing outside marriage. This article examines the extent to which women have their first child in one of four settings: prior to any partnership; in their first cohabiting partnership; in first marriage; and after a first partnership. Temporal changes in these behaviours and variation according to background characteristics of the women are also examined. For the women who had a child outside any partnership, we examine the extent to which they go on to form partnerships and how long after the birth this happens. For those who had their first child within a cohabiting union, we examine the extent to which they marry and how long after the birth this occurs. Finally, we investigate whether children born within cohabiting unions that do and do not convert into marriages are more or less likely than those born within marriage to see their parents separate.     

The demographic characteristics and economic activity patterns of carers over 50: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Studies on informal care provision have often focused on the provision of care for persons with a long term physical or mental ill-health or disability, or problems related to old age. However, the provision of care and support more broadly, for example in the form of childcare for grandchildren, can also impact on various aspects of a carer's life, such as their employment (if under the state retirement age), lifetime earnings and, by extension, pension income in later life. This article uses data from Wave 3 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) to explore the demographic characteristics, caring patterns, health status and economic activity patterns of carers aged over 50 in England. The results suggest that the nature of care provision differs across age groups, and that caring can be quite a different experience for older men and women. This article also sheds light on the characteristics of 'round-the-clock' carers, a relatively under-researched group which makes up just over one fifth of all carers aged 50 and over.     

Unmarried parenthood: new insights from the Millennium Cohort Study

This study uses information from the Millennium Cohort Study to examine the characteristics of families where children are born within a marriage, within a cohabiting union or outside of a co-residential partnership. For this latter group, for the first time in a national data set, an assessment can be made of the 'strength' of the parent's relationship at the time of the birth. We show that the context of childbearing varies with respect to geography, ethnicity, age, parity and educational status of the mother, and that the socioeconomic wellbeing of families varies according to the partnership status of their parents. A closer look at the non-partnered parents shows that the extent to which the fathers were involved with the mother of the child around the time the baby was born was related to the presence of the father at the birth of the child and whether his name was recorded on the child's birth certificate; as well as to subsequent behaviour, such as, whether they moved in with the mother, saw their children on a regular basis or contributed money to the child's maintenance.     

The decline of intensive intergenerational care of older people in Great Britain, 1985-1995

There are increasing concerns about the future availability of informal care for older people, particularly care by their children. This article explores past trends in the provision of informal care by children/children-in-law to their older parents/parents-in-law between 1985 and 1995 in Great Britain, using successive General Household Survey data. The article suggests that, during this period, there was a decline in co-resident intergenerational care and that this was associated with a decline in highly intensive intergenerational care. The article explores possible factors underlying these trends, in particular, demographic changes and changes in patterns of formal care for older people.     

Family building intentions in England and Wales: trends,outcomes and interpretations

This article presents and analyses women's childbearing intentions collected in the General Household Survey (GHS). Data from the 21 surveys from 1979 to 2001 show that over that period there has been a fall in women's intended numbers of births. However the latest data (from the 1998, 2000 and 2001 surveys) show that the average number of children intended is still around two, somewhat higher than the average number of children current fertility rates suggest women will have. The questions of whether this difference can be interpreted as possible unmet need for children, whether past intentions have been good predictors of fertility, and how current intentions may be used to inform projections assumptions are discussed. In relation to the last question, fertility intentions by ethnic group are also presented.     

Changes in family structure in early childhood in the Millennium Cohort Study

This article develops a typology of family change over the first five years of children's lives using data from the Millennium Cohort Study. It examines the changes over time of parental living arrangements and describes a range of social, economic and well-being indicators. It shows that nearly three quarters of this sample of young children have not experienced changes in family structures. The most advantaged group appears to be children living with continuously married parents, followed by those who live with cohabiting parents who marry. Children who experienced changes in family structure are a diverse group. Coupled parents who separate suffer the largest drop in income over five years. Lone parents who partner gain the most income. However, their incomes are still much lower than continuously partnered parents. This article suggests that using static or overly simplified measures of family structure hides important variations in the experiences of children.     

Mothers with living children and children with living mothers: the role of fertility and mortality in the period 1911-2050

Whether an individual has one or more surviving children at a given age and/or a surviving parent depends both on fertility (not only number of children, but also timing of childbearing) and mortality. We consider the contribution of changes in mortality and fertility to past and likely future trends on availability of such kin. The proportion of people aged 60 with a mother alive will more than double between those born in 1911 and 1970, and the figure will increase for at least the next 30 years. While there are increasing concerns about the availability of informal care for elderly people from children in the next quarter century or so, in fact we conclude that a higher proportion of elderly people are likely to have a surviving child than for any generation ever born in Britain, and will have more than any foreseeable future cohort.     

Trends in fertility and contraception in the last quarter of the 20th century

The late 1960s and early 1970s saw major changes in access to birth control. This article reviews trends in fertility and contraception between 1976 when the Family Formation Survey was undertaken and 1998, the latest year for which data are available. There has been an increase in mean age at childbirth over the period. Some of this increase is possibly a result of childbearing in second and subsequent relationships when the women will be older on average. This also has had an impact on their patterns of contraception use. Teenage pregnancy is high on the Government's agenda. Teenage pregnancy continues at constant levels. As the estimated age of first intercourse decreases, there is a continued need for sufficient, accessible and appropriate family planning services.     

The effect of changes in timing of childbearing on measuring fertility in England and Wales

Changes in the ages at which women give birth to their children mean that fertility measured at a particular point in time (period) may not be a good representation of the ultimate fertility of those women. The common measure of period fertility is the total fertility rate, which in 2001 has fallen to the lowest level since records began in England and Wales. This article presents various methods that have been proposed to adjust period fertility data to take account of changes in the timing of childbearing, applied to England and Wales data. The article concludes that while these adjustment methods provide useful insights, for example, that the total fertility rate has underestimated period quantum fertility since the 1970s, the measures produced are difficult to interpret. This is in part because the concept they are trying to measure, period quantum is itself imprecise. The adjustments do not necessarily provide a reliable indicator of underlying cohort fertility.     

Higher qualifications,first-birth timing,and further childbearing in England and Wales

This article examines how strong the association is between the obtaining of higher educational qualifications and later entry to motherhood, and how these are associated with levels and pace of second and subsequent childbearing. Data from the ONS Longitudinal Study are used to estimate these associations for women born in England and Wales between 1954 and 1958. Average age of entry to motherhood is found to be five years later for women with higher qualifications than for those without. Increasing age of motherhood is always associated with a lower likelihood of going on to have another child, but the decline with age is less pronounced for women with a higher qualification. Moreover, for any given age of childbearing, mothers with a higher qualification are more likely than those without to have another child, and are more likely to do so quickly.     

Stability and change in fertility intentions in Britain, 1991-2007

The very low fertility experienced in several European countries in recent decades in the presence of higher intended family sizes has renewed interest in fertility intentions data. While the overall level of childbearing in Britain over the past few decades has remained relatively stable and high in comparison with many other European countries, we have seen sizeable increases in the age at which childbearing starts. This study uses data from the 1991 to 2007 General Household Surveys to examine trends in family intentions data in an attempt to arrive at a better understanding of these recent fertility developments. First, time trends in intended family size are compared with trends in observed fertility. Next, aggregate changes in intentions regarding the level and timing of fertility across the life course for cohorts are investigated together with the extent to which these aggregate intentions are matched by the subsequent childbearing of cohorts. Finally, both change across the life course and uncertainty in family intentions are examined. We conclude by discussing what these findings might tell us about contemporary reproductive decision making.     

Measuring unmet need for social care amongst older people

Recent spending cuts in the area of adult social care raise policy concerns about the proportion of older people whose need for social care is not being met. Such concerns are emphasised in the context of population ageing and other demographic changes. For example, the increasing proportion of the population aged 75 and over places greater pressure on formal and informal systems of care and support provision, while changes in the living arrangements of older people may affect the supply of informal care within the household. This article explores the concept of 'unmet need' for support in relation to specific Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs), using data on the receipt of support (informal, formal state or formal paid) from the General Household Survey, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and the British Household Panel Survey. The results show that different kinds of need tend to be supported by particular sources of care, and that there is a significant level of 'unmet need' for certain activities.     

How important are intergenerational cycles of teenage motherhood in England and Wales? A comparison with France

Teenage fertility has fallen substantially in every Western European country except the United Kingdom. This article examines the hypothesis that repetition of teenage motherhood from mother to daughter is a major cause of the UK being the exception. A simple demographic model of fertility across generations is estimated with comparable data from England and Wales and France. The main finding is that mother-daughter repetition can account for only a minor part of the total difference in teenage childbearing between the two countries, especially over the long term. The higher teenage childbearing in England and Wales of those whose mothers began childbearing after their teenage years dominates.     

随机服务时间下的家庭护理人员调度问题研究

研究了家庭护理中的医疗服务人员调度问题,考虑了随机的客户服务时间和最迟开始服务时间约束.建立了带补偿的随机规划模型,得到了客户期望迟到惩罚成本的近似计算表达式,并分析了期望惩罚成本的性质.根据问题的特点,基于列生成算法思想建立问题的集分割最优化主问题模型和生成新列的最短路子问题模型,并设计标签算法对子问题加以求解.将列生成算法嵌入到分枝定界过程中形成分枝定价算法得到问题整数可行解.通过数值实验,验证了所提出客户期望迟到惩罚成本近似表达式和分枝定价算法的有效性.     

Characteristics of sole registered births and the mothers who register them

This article explores the characteristics of live births where no father was present on the birth certificate (sole registrations) using registration data. It then uses data from the ONS Longitudinal Study to examine some characteristics of mothers who have ever experienced a sole registered live birth. It shows that as a proportion of all births, sole registrations have remained fairly constant over the last two decades, although since 1998 there is some evidence of a fall in the proportion. For mothers born between 1955 and 1962 around nine per cent experienced a sole registration. Those who ever experienced a sole registration were around four years younger when they began their childbearing. These women also had larger families and were more likely to come from a lower social class background.     

Perpetual postponers? Women's, men's and couple's fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour

In this article data from the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) are used to analyse gender differences in fertility intentions, and the correspondence between fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour. By exploiting couple-level data, we examine whether partners have conflicting preferences for future fertility. Focusing on women who remain childless in their thirties we look at socio-demographic factors related to the intention to remain childless, or to start a family later on in life. By following up women over time, the characteristics of women who go on to have a child later on in life are considered. The importance of having a partner and the fertility intention of that partner in predicting whether a birth will occur are also examined.     

女性就业与生育行为动态仿真模型及应用

以女性生命周期中的主要事件及其转移为系统主线,建立了农村新一代女性就业与生育行为动态仿真模型。模型遍历了从女婴出生,经女童、少女到跨入成年进程中交织进行的受教育、就业、婚姻与生育等全部生命事件,用以探讨农村新一代女性生命周期模式对女性人口状态所产生的影响。     

Children's family change: reports and records of mothers, fathers and children compared

Family change, when adults depart or arrive around children, raises policy issues. Its measurement depends upon the evidence collected and from whom. This paper compares British children's histories obtained from fathers and mothers. The evidence, on one birth cohort of parents, comes from two sources: the National Child Development Study and the ONS Longitudinal Study. The resulting account of family change is not substantially different between parents. There is some under-reporting of children not living with their fathers. This is due to under-reporting by those included in the studies and to under-representation in them of absent fathers and lone parents.     

Intermediate health care in a British inner city: An exercise in multiprofessional systems design

Health care in England is divided into the acute- and primary-care sectors. In the inner city the primary-care sector suffers from a number of ills that would be relieved by the introduction of a form of health care intermediate to it and the acute sector. This paper illustrates how members of the Department of General Practice at the University of Liverpool set about exploring the problems of the inner city and its health-care provision, as a means of arriving at a preliminary design for an intermediate-care service provision. The design was to form the basis for negotiations with other interested parties over the introduction of intermediate care in the inner city. The approach adopted was based on the soft systems methodology of P. B. Checkland. However, a number of variations on the traditional soft systems methodology were introduced, not the least of which was the introduction of new systemic metaphor into the root definition and conceptual modeling stages.