Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling

Climate change poses major new challenges to biodiversity conservation. Distribution ranges of species have been proven to be affected by climate anomalies. Detecting the extent of protected species response to climate change can help formulate flexible conservation strategies to overcome the changing climate. Using species distribution modeling and high resolution climate data, we simulated current distribution patterns of 233 protected plants in China. Those patterns were then projected into future suitable habitats for each species under nine climate change scenarios, with no migration or full migration hypotheses. Under the most extreme climate change scenario （CGCM-B2a）, we evaluated species extinction risks. Sixteen percent of protected plants are expected to lose more than 30 % of their current ranges. By calculating areal shifts, hotspots for emigrants, immigrants, and persistent species were identified under climate change. Flexible conservation strategies were addressed for those regions. Those strategies strongly depend on the migration types of species and sensitivity of the hotspots to changing climate. In hotspots for emigrants, the main conservation strategy is ex situ protection; protected species from these regions should be stored in seed banks or botanical gardens. For hotspots of immigrants, enough space should be maintained for new species, and some measures are necessary to assist dispersal. For hotspots of persistent species, more natural reserves are needed. We highlight related fields that can help conserve protected species in the future, such as conserving the soil seed bank and understanding of the effects of migration ability and interactions between protected species.     

Developmental constraints versus flexibility in morphological evolution

Evolutionary developmental biology has encouraged a change of research emphasis from the sorting of phenotypic variation by natural selection to the production of that variation through development. Some morphologies are more readily generated than others, and developmental mechanisms can limit or channel evolutionary change. Such biases determine how readily populations are able to respond to selection, and have been postulated to explain stasis in morphological evolution and unexplored morphologies. There has been much discussion about evolutionary constraints but empirical data testing them directly are sparse. The spectacular diversity in butterfly wing patterns is suggestive of how little constrained morphological evolution can be. However, for wing patterns involving serial repeats of the same element, developmental properties suggest that some directions of evolutionary change might be restricted. Here we show that despite the developmental coupling between different eyespots in the butterfly Bicyclus anynana, there is great potential for independent changes. This flexibility is consistent with the diversity of wing patterns across species and argues for a dominant role of natural selection, rather than internal constraints, in shaping existing variation.     

Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phylogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.     

Antagonistic coevolution between the sexes in a group of insects

In coevolutionary 'arms races' between the sexes, the outcome of antagonistic interactions may remain at an evolutionary standstill. The advantage gained by one sex, with any evolutionary exaggeration of arms, is expected to be matched by analogous counteradaptations in the other sex. This fundamental coevolutionary process may thus be hidden from the evolutionist's eye, and no natural examples are known. We have studied the effects of male and female armament (clasping and anti-clasping morphologies) on the outcome of antagonistic mating interactions in 15 species of water strider, using a combination of experimental and phylogenetic comparative methods. Here we present, by assessing the independent effects of both species-specific level of arms escalation and small imbalances in the amounts of arms between the sexes within species, the consequences of a sexual arms race. Evolutionary change in the balance of armament between males and females, but not in the species-specific level of escalation, has resulted in evolutionary change in the outcome of sexually antagonistic interactions such as mating rate.     

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.     

Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins

Many animals are regarded as relatively sedentary and specialized in marginal parts of their geographical distributions. They are expected to be slow at colonizing new habitats. Despite this, the cool margins of many species' distributions have expanded rapidly in association with recent climate warming. We examined four insect species that have expanded their geographical ranges in Britain over the past 20 years. Here we report that two butterfly species have increased the variety of habitat types that they can colonize, and that two bush cricket species show increased fractions of longer-winged (dispersive) individuals in recently founded populations. Both ecological and evolutionary processes are probably responsible for these changes. Increased habitat breadth and dispersal tendencies have resulted in about 3- to 15-fold increases in expansion rates, allowing these insects to cross habitat disjunctions that would have represented major or complete barriers to dispersal before the expansions started. The emergence of dispersive phenotypes will increase the speed at which species invade new environments, and probably underlies the responses of many species to both past and future climate change.     

Evolution driven by differential dispersal within a wild bird population

Evolutionary theory predicts that local population divergence will depend on the balance between the diversifying effect of selection and the homogenizing effect of gene flow. However, spatial variation in the expression of genetic variation will also generate differential evolutionary responses. Furthermore, if dispersal is non-random it may actually reinforce, rather than counteract, evolutionary differentiation. Here we document the evolution of differences in body mass within a population of great tits, Parus major, inhabiting a single continuous woodland, over a 36-year period. We show that genetic variance for nestling body mass is spatially variable, that this generates different potential responses to selection, and that this diversifying effect is reinforced by non-random dispersal. Matching the patterns of variation, selection and evolution with population ecological data, we argue that the small-scale differentiation is driven by density-related differences in habitat quality affecting settlement decisions. Our data show that when gene flow is not homogeneous, evolutionary differentiation can be rapid and can occur over surprisingly small spatial scales. Our findings have important implications for questions of the scale of adaptation and speciation, and challenge the usual treatment of dispersal as a force opposing evolutionary differentiation.     

基于进化规划的网络多目标路由算法

多目标路由问题要求极小化网络带宽资源消耗 ,它与图论中 NP完全的 Steiner问题等价 ,不存在多项式时间算法 ,只能采用近似算法或启发式算法 .进化算法是一类有效求解优化问题的新算法 .应用进化算法中的进化规划方法 ,求解 Steiner问题 ,提出了一种新的多目标路由算法 .仿真结果显示 ,该算法性能高于启发式方法     

Genetic changes associated with floral adaptation restrict future evolutionary potential

A commonly accepted evolutionary principle is that adaptive change constrains the potential directions of future evolutionary change. One manifestation of this is Dollo's law, which states that character elimination is irreversible. Although the common occurrence of irreversibility has been documented by phylogenetic analyses of phenotypic transitions, little is known about the underlying causes of this phenomenon. One explanation for evolutionary irreversibility relies on the fact that many characteristics result from interactions between multiple gene products. Such characteristics may often be eliminated by inactivation of just one gene in the network. If they serve no other functions, other genes of the network are then free to accumulate mutations or evolve new functions. Evolutionary change after character loss results in the accumulation of redundant loss-of-function mutations. Such pathway degeneration makes it very unlikely that the characteristic will re-evolve, because multiple simultaneous mutations would be required. Here we describe what appear to be the initial stages of such degeneration in the anthyocyanin pigment pathway associated with an adaptive change from blue to red flowers in the morning glory Ipomoea quamoclit.     

纯滞后对象的进化模糊控制

针对传统Smith预估控制的缺点,提出了Smith-Evolutionary Fuzzy控制,并设计了进化模糊控制器,仿真结果说明由于进化 算法的加入,Smith-Evolutionary Fuzzy控制既能对纯滞后有很好的补偿,又能对时变系统进行了有效控制。     

基于本体的可进化学习对象设计

学习对象规范代表并引导着学习对象的发展方向。从IMS Common Cartridge数字化学习内容封装规范及LETSI通用核心模型Core SCORM来看,学习对象呈现出分布式共享、细粒度重用、对生成性信息自动聚合等发展趋势。基于这种趋势,提出了可进化学习对象。本文对可进化学习对象的结构及特性进行了分析,采用本体作为其语义信息表示的通用框架,借助于OWL描述,设计了可进化学习对象自然生长、聚合、裂变的进化模型,为异构信息系统中ELO互操作提供了理论依据。     

一种新的免疫克隆选择算法

提出了一种新的人工免疫系统算法——免疫克隆选择算法,描述了算法的操作过程.采用函数优化仿真实验与进化算法进行比较,结果表明免疫克隆选择算法收敛速度快,求解精度高,稳定性好,并能有效地克服早熟问题和骗问题.     

气候变化科学研究的国际发展态势与挑战

该文在介绍国际气候变化科学研究体系的基础上,分析了气候变化科学以多学科交叉支持、全时空
研究覆盖、关注气候与人类活动间复杂关系为主的研究特点。从气候变化研究的关键问题和发展趋向的角
度,分析了气候变化科学研究的挑战。文章指出未来研究的关键问题包括：1）气候变化科学中的关键性基
础研究;2）气候变化中的不确定性研究;3）气候变化影响、反馈机制与预测研究;4）气候变化的社会学
方面研究;5）针对提高气候变化适应与减缓能力的开发研究;6）发展有利于实现气候变化目标的国际合
作框架。从发展趋势上来说,发展跨越历史、现在和未来的气候变化评估、预测和预警研究将成为气候变化
科学研究的重要方向;社会科学将更多地介入气候变化科学研究并成为气候变化科学研究的重要特征;适应
和减缓将成为气候变化科学研究的重要内容;气候变化科学研究将推动构建新的世界观和价值观体系。文章
最后提出,我国也需要根据社会经济发展现状、科学研究的基础和自然条件,进行与气候变化相关的基础科
学、技术开发、应对策略等方面的专门研究,提高我国应对气候变化的可持续发展能力。     

基于新型进化规划的异构神经网络集成算法

提出一种基于新型进化规划的异构神经网络集成算法。首先利用改进的进化规划,克服传统的进化规划及EPNet模型的不足,生成多个异构的最优网络,然后对异构网络进行组合求解。该集成算法充分利用了Bootstrap采样的天然特性实现了网络间的异构和差异度,同时又保证了单个成员网络的精度,克服了传统Bagging,Boosting算法中成员网络结构固定,缺乏个体精度的缺点。通过仿真实验证明,该方法较传统集成算法具有更好的泛化性能并减少了传统集成算法中的随机不确定因素。     

进入21世纪的气候变化科学--气候变化的事实、影响与对策

近百年来，地球气候正经历一次以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化，我国的气候变化趋势与全球气候变化的总趋势基本一致。近50年的气候变暖主要是人类使用化石燃料排放的大量二氧化碳等温室气体的增温效应造成的。现有的预测表明，未来50-100年全球和我国的气候将继续向变暖的方向发展。国际上，目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》正在就如何减缓这种气候变暖的趋势和控制温室气体排放进行谈判。本文依据IPCC第三次评估报告与国内外最新的研究成果，说明气候变化的事实与未来的可能变化，阐述冰冻圈对气候变化的响应，进而说明气候变化对生态系统和社会经济的影响，分析气候变化给我国带来的挑战和机遇并提出对策建议。     

合作进化模型综述

作者综述了合作进化模型的最新研究成果。合作进化模型以“囚徒困境”博弈模型为基础, 为合作中的个体提供了一种与个体本身无关的策略优化机制, 以此探讨合作策略能够稳定进化的条件。基于直接或间接互惠理论的合作进化模型验证了在小规模社会中建立声誉机制有助于实现稳定的互惠合作; 互惠可以看做是对合作行为的奖赏, 开放的社会网络有助于实现较大范围内的合作; 对非合作行为实施惩罚有助于实现多人合作, 在一定条件下, 由非合作者实施惩罚时的合作进化相较于由合作者实施时更稳定; 群组竞争有利于合作文化或制度的传播, 但无法解释群组融合后的合作问题。     

基于文献数据比较研究东北针阔混交林群落叶绿体遗传多样性

第四纪气候变化对植物群落产生深远影响,然而植物群落如何响应气候变化,群落内不同物种是否具有一致的响应,对于这些问题仍缺乏更系统和完整的答案．中国东北针阔混交林位于凉温带,对气候变化十分敏感,是研究物种对第四纪气候变化响应的理想区域．本研究利用文献检索调查东北针阔混交林物种谱系地理研究现状,并基于文献数据分析东北针阔混交林群落及其周边群落的遗传多样性空间分布情况．结果发现,2020年前,仅有23篇文章对27个东北针阔混交林群落物种进行谱系地理研究．无论是群落水平还是物种水平,均未发现遗传多样性的纬度梯度格局．现有的数据表明,长白山西部和大兴安岭北部地区具有较高的群落遗传多样性．这些结果表明冰期“原位避难”可能是东北针阔混交林群落物种的普遍模式,但是具体的冰期避难所位置可能存在物种差异．由于文献数据是独立而分散的谱系地理研究,存在取样种群和分子标记以及覆盖度的差异,从而导致基于文献分析的群落水平遗传多样性格局结论仍存在不确定性．未来应开展以群落遗传多样性和群落形成历史问题为导向的系统设计,以期系统性地回答群落如何响应第四纪气候变化．      

基于随机游走的进化计算社区发现

网络结构关系错综复杂,在复杂网络上寻找最优的社区结构是一个NP-Hard问题,进化计算被认为是解决这类问题的有效方案,人们尝试利用群智能方法来搜索最优的社区结构。目前,针对包含节点属性的属性网络,基于进化计算的社区发现方法还面临若干挑战：（1）基因编码策略都直接或间接采用邻位编码,致使算法的搜索空间受限于拓扑结构,属性信息利用程度低,导致算法精度不足;（2）缺少对社区边缘度较小的节点的考虑,造成社区边界识别较低。针对上述问题,提出了一种基于随机游走的进化计算社区发现算法。首先,设计了一种基于拓扑及属性信息随机游走的社区初始化策略,以准确识别社区边界,提高社区发现的精度。其次,设计了综合考虑拓扑和属性的节点嵌入向量更新策略,使节点的属性信息能够在进化过程中被有效利用,以提高社区划分的质量。通过在真实和人工数据集上实验,验证了提出的新算法能够比现有方法得到更好的社区划分。     

进化规划的现状及发展动向

进化规划在一些难解的优化问题中都有成功的应用 .综述了国内近几年来在进化规划方面的主要应用成果、进化规划的改进及进化规划在收敛性方面的一些结论 .