Are household subjective forecasts of personal finances accurate and useful? A directional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the accuracy and usefulness of household subjective forecasts of personal finance. We use non‐parametric directional analysis to assess the subjective forecasts which are based on qualitative judgments. Using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we are able to analyse a large number of individuals over a number of years. We also take into account individual characteristics such as gender, age, education and employment status when assessing their subjective forecasts. The paper extends the existing literature in two ways: the accuracy and usefulness of subjective forecasts, based on directional analysis, are assessed at the household level for the first time. Secondly, we adapt and extend the methods of directional analysis, which are applied to the household panel or longitudinal survey. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biosynthesis of a monoene and a conjugated diene sex pheromone component of the lightbrown apple moth by Δ11 desaturation

Summary Fatty acyl moieties present in the female sex pheromone gland of the lightbrown apple moth,Epiphyas postvittana, include the analogues of the two sex pheromone components, (E)-11-tetradecenyl acetate and (E,E)-9,11-tetradecadienyl acetate. Application of deuterium-labelled fatty acids followed by analysis by gas chromatographymass spectrometry showed that biosynthesis of the two pheromone components involved initial 11-desaturation of myristic and palmitic acids respectively.     

Indoleamines and the UV-light-sensitive photoperiodic responses of the melanocyte network: a biological calendar?

The pineal, serotoninergic and pigmented neurons are associated with light-dependent sleep/arousal, serving as a biological clock with a circadian rhythm. This rhythm is maintained by melatonin which serves to recognise the dark phase. The neural network that responds to seasonal variations in day/night length has not been identified. The present study demonstrates that melanocytes in human skin respond to changes in the duration of UV exposure, and can serve as a biological calendar. These responses are mediated by two indoleamines, serotonin and melatonin. Higher melatonin levels correspond to long nights and long days (short UV pulse), while high serotonin levels in the presence of melatonin reflect short nights and long days (long UV exposure). This response recapitulates the sleep/arousal patterns in animals exposed to large variations in day/night cycle that cause changes in coat colour from pure white in winter to complete repigmentation in summer.     

What constitutes a network in the acinar cells of amphibian and mammalian pancreas?

Résumé Il a été montré que l'appareil réticulaire classique de Golgi dans les cellules pancréatiques des amphibies et des mammifères est un produit artificiel. Un certain nombre de raisons sont proposées pour expliquer ce fait.     

Wnt and lithium: a common destiny in the therapy of nervous system pathologies?

Wnt signaling is required for neurogenesis, the fate of neural progenitors, the formation of neuronal circuits during development, neuron positioning and polarization, axon and dendrite development and finally for synaptogenesis. This signaling pathway is also implicated in the generation and differentiation of glial cells. In this review, we describe the mechanisms of action of Wnt signaling pathways and their implication in the development and correct functioning of the nervous system. We also illustrate how a dysregulated Wnt pathway could lead to psychiatric, neurodegenerative and demyelinating pathologies. Lithium, used for the treatment of bipolar disease, inhibits GSK3β, a central enzyme of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway. Thus, lithium could, to some extent, mimic Wnt pathway. We highlight the possible dialogue between lithium therapy and modulation of Wnt pathway in the treatment of the diseases of the nervous system.     

Minkowski spacetime and Lorentz invariance: The cart and the horse or two sides of a single coin?

Michel Janssen and Harvey Brown have driven a prominent recent debate concerning the direction of an alleged arrow of explanation between Minkowski spacetime and Lorentz invariance of dynamical laws in special relativity. In this article, I critically assess this controversy with the aim of clarifying the explanatory foundations of the theory. First, I show that two assumptions shared by the parties—that the dispute is independent of issues concerning spacetime ontology, and that there is an urgent need for a constructive interpretation of special relativity—are problematic and negatively affect the debate. Second, I argue that the whole discussion relies on a misleading conception of the link between Minkowski spacetime structure and Lorentz invariance, a misconception that in turn sheds more shadows than light on our understanding of the explanatory nature and power of Einstein׳s theory. I state that the arrow connecting Lorentz invariance and Minkowski spacetime is not explanatory and unidirectional, but analytic and bidirectional, and that this analytic arrow grounds the chronogeometric explanations of physical phenomena that special relativity offers.     

The epistemological virtues of assumptions: towards a coming of age of Boltzmann and Meinong’s objections to ‘the prejudice in favour of the actual’?

Two complementary debates of the turn of the nineteenth and twentieth century are examined here: the debate on the legitimacy of hypotheses in the natural sciences and the debate on intentionality and ‘representations without object’ in philosophy. Both are shown to rest on two core issues: the attitude of the subject and the mode of presentation chosen to display a domain of phenomena. An orientation other than the one which contributed to shape twentieth-century philosophy of science is explored through the analysis of the role given to assumptions in Boltzmann’s research strategy, where assumptions are contrasted to hypotheses, axioms, and principles, and in Meinong’s criticism of the privileged status attributed to representations in mental activities. Boltzmann’s computational style in mathematics and Meinong’s criticism of the confusion between representation and judgment give prominence to an indirect mode of presentation, adopted in a state of suspended belief which is characteristic of assumptions and which enables one to grasp objects that cannot be reached through direct representation or even analogies. The discussion shows how assumptions and the movement to fiction can be essential steps in the quest for objectivity. The conclusion restates the issues of the two debates in a contemporary perspective and shows how recent developments in philosophy of science and philosophy of language and mind can be brought together by arguing for a twofold conception of reference.     

Hepatic hydroxylation of melatonin in the rat is induced by phenobarbital and 7,12-dimethylbenzy[a]anthracene — implications for cancer etiology

The protective function of the pineal hormone melatonin in the etiology of cancer and carcinogenic activation is increasingly well-established. Low melatonin levels seem to parallel cancer growth. The question arises as to which factors cause the depression of melatonin levels and what the direct effects are. Melatonin is known to be metabolized in the liver by hydroxylation and subsequent conjugation yielding 6-sulfatoxymelatonin as a main product. Nevertheless, the microsomal monoxygenases catalyzing the first step have been poorly investigated. To further characterize these enzymes, typical inducers of three different sub-classes, namely phenobarbital, 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene, and 17-estradiol, were administered to female Fischer rats. Circadian urinary excretion patterns of melatonin and 6-sulfatoxymelatonin were determined over a 24-hour period on the third (second) day of induction. Liver homogenates were used to monitor the in vitro conversion of melatonin or 6-hydroxymelatonin to 6-sulfatoxymelatonin. Results of both approaches showed the microsomal monoxygenases catalyzing the 6-hydroxylation of melatonin to be strongly inducible by phenobarbital and to a lesser degree by the polyaromatic hydrocarbon 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene. The dramatic depletion of circulating melatonin as a result of these induction patterns and its possible implications for oncogenesis are discussed.     

To envision a new particle or change an existing law? Hypothesis formation and anomaly resolution for the curious case of the β decay spectrum

This paper addresses the question of how scientists determine which type of hypothesis is most suitable for tackling a particular problem by examining the historical case of the anomalous β spectrum in early nuclear physics (1927–1934), a puzzle that occasioned the most diverse hypotheses amongst physicists at the time. It is shown that such determinations are most often implicitly informed by scientists' individual perspectives on the structural relations between the various elements of the theory and the problem at hand. In addition to this main result, it is suggested that Wolfgang Pauli's neutrino idea may well have been an adaptation of Ernst Rutherford's original and older neutron idea, which would provide evidence that the adaptation of older ideas is a more common practice than is often thought.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis>-related postinfectious IBS: a case of enteroglial microbiological stalking and/or the solution of a conundrum?

Post-infectious irritable bowel syndrome is a well-defined pathological entity that develops in about one-third of subjects after an acute infection (bacterial, viral) or parasitic infestation. Only recently it has been documented that an high incidence of post-infectious irritable bowel syndrome occurs after Clostridium difficile infection. However, until now it is not known why in some patients recovered from this infection the gastrointestinal disturbances persist for months or years. Based on our in vitro studies on enteric glial cells exposed to the effects of C. difficile toxin B, we hypothesize that persistence of symptoms up to the development of irritable bowel syndrome might be due to a disturbance/impairment of the correct functions of the enteroglial intestinal network.