Combination of forecasts in electricity demand prediction

Accurate demand prediction is of great importance in the electricity supply industry. Electricity cannot be stored, and generating plant must be scheduled well in advance to meet future demand. Up to now, where online information about external conditions is unavailable, time series methods on the historical demand series have been used for short-term demand prediction. These have drawbacks, both in their sensitivity to changing weather conditions and in their poor modelling of the daily/weekly business cycles. To overcome these problems a framework has been constructed whereby forecasts from different prediction methods and different forecasting origins can be selected and combined, solely on the basis of recent forecasting performance, with no a priori assumptions of demand behaviour. This added flexibility in univariate forecasting provides a significant improvement in prediction accuracy.     

Action and interactions at microtubule ends

Microtubule dynamic instability is fundamentally important to the way cells respond to their environment and segregate their genetic material. A disparate class of proteins defined by their localisation to growing microtubule plus ends ('+TIPS') play a key role in controlling microtubule dynamics and organisation. They directly impact upon the behaviour of the microtubule tip and link this structure to interfaces that include kinetochores and the cortex of the cell. Surprisingly, some +TIPs also have important functions at the microtubule minus end. These properties contribute to the important roles played by +TIPs in processes such as mitosis and cell migration. This review examines how recent advances have impacted our understanding of +TIP function in mammalian cells, with emphasis on the emergence of the EB1 family as a core component of +TIP activities. An overview of the use of +TIP imaging as a tool for the cell biologist is also presented.     

Genomic instability in breast and ovarian cancers: translation into clinical predictive biomarkers

Breast and ovarian cancer are among the most common malignancies diagnosed in women worldwide. Together, they account for the majority of cancer-related deaths in women. These cancer types share a number of features, including their association with hereditary cancer syndromes caused by heterozygous germline mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2. BRCA-associated breast and ovarian cancers are hallmarked by genomic instability and high sensitivity to DNA double-strand break (DSB) inducing agents due to loss of error-free DSB repair via homologous recombination (HR). Recently, poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors, a new class of drugs that selectively target HR-deficient tumor cells, have been shown to be highly active in BRCA-associated breast and ovarian cancers. This finding has renewed interest in hallmarks of HR deficiency and the use of other DSB-inducing agents, such as platinum salts or bifunctional alkylators, in breast and ovarian cancer patients. In this review we discuss the similarities between breast and ovarian cancer, the hallmarks of genomic instability in BRCA-mutated and BRCA-like breast and ovarian cancers, and the efforts to search for predictive markers of HR deficiency in order to individualize therapy in breast and ovarian cancer.     

Chromosome instability and deregulated proliferation: an unavoidable duo

The concept that aneuploidy is a characteristic of malignant cells has long been known; however, the idea that aneuploidy is an active contributor to tumorigenesis, as opposed to being an associated phenotype, is more recent in its evolution. At the same time, we are seeing the emergence of novel roles for tumor suppressor genes and oncogenes in genome stability. These include the adenomatous polyposis coli gene (APC), p53, the retinoblastoma susceptibility gene (RB1), and Ras. Originally, many of these genes were thought to be tumor suppressive or oncogenic solely because of their role in proliferative control. Because of the frequency with which they are disrupted in cancer, chromosome instability caused by their dysfunction may be more central to tumorigenesis than previously thought. Therefore, this review will highlight how the proper function of cell cycle regulatory genes contributes to the maintenance of genome stability, and how their mutation in cancer obligatorily connects proliferation and chromosome instability.     

Functional and physical communication between oncoproteins and tumor suppressors

The discovery of oncogenes (c-onc’s) and tumor suppressors (TS’s) has led to the concept that cancer arises from defects in each of these classes of genes or their products. More recently, it has been appreciated that c-onc and TS proteins often affect one another’s functions. Within this context, I review the two classical TS’s, p53 and the retinoblastoma protein, and the consequences of their inactivation. The various forms of genomic instability (GI) that underly the high mutation rates of transformed cells are then discussed. Particular emphasis is placed upon the concept that GI is not only an integral part of the transformed state but is a prerequisite. Increased oxidative DNA damage, and/or an inabiliy to repair it, can lead to GI. The review then discusses recent observations showing that loss of the TS protein peroxiredoxin 1 (prdx1) and increased expression of the c-onc protein c-Myc, each leads to increased oxidative DNA damage. The critical nature of the c-onc-TS interaction is underscored by that occurring between prdx1 and c-Myc, with the former protein regulating the production of DNA-damaging reactive oxygen species by the latter. The intimate association between these proteins and others serves as a paradigm for the exquisite balancing act that c-onc’s and TS’s must maintain in order to properly control normal DNA replication and cellular proliferation while simultaneously minimizing the acquisition of potentially neoplastic mutations. Received 10 May 2005; received after revision 3 July 2005; accepted 19 July 2005     

Forecasting quality and information

It is assumed that demand for information that subjectively appears to be relevant for forecasting improves forecasting quality. To study this hypothesis a number of forecasting experiments were conducted. Fifty managers from the housing business, from banking, and from a research institution were asked to forecast interest rates, using a Delphi process. They communicated via a computer system, and, to support their judgements, they had access to a data bank that was stored in the same system. Their communication with the system was automatically recorded. Part of the data collected in these experiments is used to study the existence of a relationship between information activities and forecasting results. A weak positive relationship is found if non-linear functions are tested, where information demand is corrected by those data retrievals that seem to have resulted from an inability to handle the information system. For further research a more general, albeit less informative, Boolean model is suggested.     

Forecasting water demand—A disaggregated approach

The paper outlines the background research into domestic and industrial water use that was conducted over a period of 3 years and the use that was subsequently made of the detailed information in establishing a revised 20 year forecast of the demand for potable water supplies in the Severn–Trent Water Authority area in England. The major difficulty in forecasting water demand is its multiplicity of uses, each with a different potential rate of growth in demand; a further complication is the growth in water recycling in industry. The water industry is one of the most capital intensive industries in the UK and because of the large capital sums involved in reservoir development and the long lead times for construction, the reliability of forecasts is a sensitive area. The component method described in this paper replaces the traditional extrapolatory approach and is believed to produce more meaningful forecasts.     

The mammalian NudC-like genes: a family with functions other than regulating nuclear distribution

Nuclear distribution gene C homolog (NudC) is a highly conserved gene. It has been identified in different species from fungi to mammals. The high degree of conservation, in special in the nudC domain, suggests that they are genes with essential functions. Most of the identified genes in the family have been implicated in cell division through the regulation of cytoplasmic dynein. As for mammalian genes, human NUDC has been implicated in the migration and proliferation of tumor cells and has therefore been considered a possible therapeutic target. There is evidence suggesting that mammalian NudC is also implicated in the regulation of the inflammatory response and in thrombopoiesis. The presence of these other functions not related to the interaction with molecular motors agrees with that these genes and their products are larger in size than their microbial orthologous, indicating that they have evolved to convey additional features.     

What mechanisms/processes underlie radiation-induced genomic instability?

Radiation-induced genomic instability is a modification of the cell genome found in the progeny of irradiated somatic and germ cells but that is not confined on the initial radiation-induced damage and may occur de novo many generations after irradiation. Genomic instability in the germ line does not follow Mendelian segregation and may have unpredictable outcomes in every succeeding generation. This phenomenon, for which there is extensive experimental data and some evidence in human populations exposed to ionising radiation, is not taken into account in health risk assessments. It poses an unknown morbidity/mortality burden. Based on experimental data derived over the last 20?years (up to January 2012) six mechanistic explanations for the phenomenon have been proposed in the peer-reviewed literature. This article compares these hypotheses with the empirical data to test their fitness to explain the phenomenon. As a conclusion, the most convincing explanation of radiation-induced genomic instability attributes it to an irreversible regulatory change in the dynamic interaction network of the cellular gene products, as a response to non-specific molecular damage, thus entailing the rejection of the machine metaphor for the cell in favour of one appropriate to a complex dissipative dynamic system, such as a whirlpool. It is concluded that in order to evaluate the likely morbidity/mortality associated with radiation-induced genomic instability, it will be necessary to study the damage to processes by radiation rather than damage to molecules.     

The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states

This article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’ In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model-builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model-based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically-based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.     

Welcome the Family of FANCJ-like Helicases to the Block of Genome Stability Maintenance Proteins

The FANCJ family of DNA helicases is emerging as an important group of proteins for the prevention of human disease, cancer, and chromosomal instability. FANCJ was identified by its association with breast cancer, and is implicated in Fanconi Anemia. Proteins with sequence similarity to FANCJ are important for maintenance of genomic stability. Mutations in genes encoding proteins related to FANCJ, designated ChlR1 in human and Chl1p in yeast, result in sister chromatid cohesion defects. Nematodes mutated in dog-1 show germline as well as somatic deletions in genes containing guanine-rich DNA. Rtel knockout mice are embryonic lethal, and embryonic stem cells show telomere loss and chromosomal instability. FANCJ also shares sequence similarity with human XPD and yeast RAD3 helicases required for nucleotide excision repair. The recently solved structure of XPD has provided new insight to the helicase core and accessory domains of sequence related Superfamily 2 helicases. The functions and roles of members of the FANCJ-like helicase family will be discussed. Received 17 September 2008; received after revision 24 October 2008; accepted 28 October 2008     

Updating the mechanisms of common fragile site instability: how to reconcile the different views?

Common fragile sites (CFSs) are large chromosomal regions long identified by conventional cytogenetics as sequences prone to breakage in cells subjected to replication stress. The interest in CFSs came from their key role in the formation of DNA damage, resulting in chromosomal rearrangements. The instability of CFSs was notably correlated with the appearance of genome instability in precancerous lesions and during tumor progression. Identification of the molecular mechanisms responsible for their instability therefore represents a major challenge. A number of data show that breaks result from mitotic entry before replication completion but the mechanisms responsible for such delayed replication of CFSs and relaxed checkpoint surveillance are still debated. In addition, clues to the molecular events leading to breakage just start to emerge. We present here the results of recent reports addressing these questions.     

Forecasting commercial electricity sales

An important component of the New England Electric System Companies' (the 'System') total electricity sales is attributable to commercial customers. Commercial growth has recently been strong; moreover the System's peak demand is highly sensitive to commercial load. In a typical month this class represents 33 per cent of total System sales. Accurate short-run forecasts of total kWh sales are important for rate making, budgeting, fuel cause proceedings, and corporate planning. In this study we use a variety of econometric and time-series techniques to produce short-run forecasts of commercial sales for two geographical areas served by two separate retail companies;.     

发达国家技术政策调整的分析与启迪

知识经济时代，国家竞争的实质体现为科学技术水平的竞争，技术的竞争力越来越成为国家竞争力的核心，作为技术后发国家，发展中的中国将如何实现经济和技术的跨越性发展?在此背景之下，加紧制定和实施我国的国家产业技术政策，加快技术创新与技术进步，具有至关重要要的意义。本文着重研究和跟踪发达国家技术政策调整的趋势，借鉴他们的经验和教训，以提出我国技术政策调整的思路。     

Oil shocks: How can OECD countries manage them best?

As the 1990-91 Gulf crisis has emphasized, the risk of new oil shocks remains high in the medium to long run. Although energy intensity has decreased in the major countries since the first two oil shocks, the simulation performed with the MIMOSA world model, which is described in this paper, shows that a permanent rise in oil prices still induces direct strong negative consequences in the OECD: a temporary recession, a durable loss in production and employment and a lasting rise in inflation. Moreover, according to the model and due to national dissimilarities, an oil shock in Europe has some asymmetrical effects which are pointed out here. Further simulations test two different economic policy responses in the OECD: a ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ policy in which each country tries to ‘export’ its unemployment by curbing domestic inflation and wage growth; and a co-ordinated policy supporting both supply and demand. The first leads to a general deflationist overshooting. The second ensures stabilization with a much lower cost in employment.     

Psi experiments: Do the best parapsychological experiments justify the claims for psi?

Summary Since the founding of the Society of Psychical Research in 1982, psychical researchers have, in each generation, generated research reports which they believed justified the existence of paranormal phenomena. Throughout this period the scientific establishment has either rejected or ignored such claims. The parapsychologists, with some justification, complained that their claims were being rejected without the benefit of a fair hearing. This paper asks the question of how well the best contemporary evidence for psi — the term used to designate ESP and psychokinetic phenomena — stands up to fair and unbiased appraisal. The results of the scrutiny of the three most widely heralded programs of research — the remote viewing experiments, the psi ganzfeld research, and the work with random number generators — indicates that parapsychological research falls short of the professed standards of the field. In particular, the available reports indicate that randomization is often inadequate, multiple statistical testing without adjustment for significance levels is prevalent, possibilities for sensory leakage are not uniformly prevented, errors in use of statistical tests are much too common, and documentation is typically inadequate. Although the responsible critic cannot argue that these observed departures from optimal experimental procedures have been the sole cause of the reported findings, it is reasonable to demand that the parapsychologists produce consistently significant findings from experiments that are methodologically adequate before their claims are taken seriously.