Reconstruction of temperature series in China for the last 5000 years

A temperature series with a 100 year resolution for the last 5000 years in China has been reconstructed by using 31 long-term temperature proxy series selected from recent publications in the last 20 years. The proxy records include pollens, stalagmites, lake-sediments, peat, ice cores and historical documents. The result reveals that in the millennial scale temperature variation it was warm in 3050-250 BC and it was cold in 250 BC-1950 AD. In the above two periods there were many stages of sub-scale temperature fluctuations. The result also shows an obvious temperature discrepancy on the century to multi-century scale between the Eastern Monsoon Region, the Qinghai-Tibet Region and the Northwestern Region in 2850 BC, 2350 BC, 1350 BC, 950-350 BC, 50-250 AD, and 550 AD. A comparison between the reconstructed series of this paper and some North Hemisphere temperature series indicates that in the long-term scale change, the temperature change in China is in phrase with that of the Northern Hemisphere during the last 5000 years, while on the century to multi-century scale there are differences at the beginning and end times, which may imply that temperature change does not occur simultaneously in different regions.     

Simulated and reconstructed winter temperature in the eastern China during the last millennium

Since the 1990s, under the auspicious impetus of two international research programs, the “Past Global Changes” (PAGES) and the “Climate Variability and Pre- dictability” (CLIVAR), massive research work has been carried out on climate and environment changes over the past 2000 years[1-3]. But majority of the studies has been centered on obtaining various kinds of climatic proxy data (such as historical documents, tree rings, ice cores, lake cores) and focused on the reconstruction of…     

Reconstruction of the past 1000-a temperature in Canada based on pollen data

Reconstructions of past climate based on pollen data have formed a robust approach and produced a great of products in time scales from a millennium to ten millenniums. However, it is an attempt for reconstruction of the past decade-century climate in the Global Change field. This note reports a reconstruction of the past 1000-a temperature in a 50-a scale in Canada based on pollen data. Because there were little human activities during the last 1000 years in North America, the climate in the period mainly responded to natural changes. The reconstruction of a natural-forcing change in the climate can provide a basis to recognize the climate changes impacted from human activities in China. The technique of modern analogue can be implemented to reconstruct the past millennium climate in China.     

A 1000-year chironomid-based salinity reconstruction from varved sediments of Sugan Lake, Qaidam Basin, arid Northwest China, and its palaeoclimatic significance

A 1000-year high-resolution （-10 years） chironomid record from varved sediments of Sugan Lake, Qaidam Basin on the northern Tibetan Plateau, is presented. The chironomid assemblages are mainly composed of the relatively high-saline-water taxa Psectrocladius barbimanus-type and Orthocladius/ Cricotopus, and the relatively low-saline-water taxa Procladius and Psectrocladius sordidellus-type. Variations in the chironomid fauna and inferred salinities suggest that over the last millennium, the Sugan Lake catchment has alternated between contrasting climatic conditions, having a dry climate during the period 990-1550 AD, a relatively humid climate during the Little Ice Age （LIA） （1550-1840 AD）, and a dry climate again from 1840 AD onwards. At the decadal to centennial scale, a wet event around 1200-1230 AD, interrupting the generally arid period （990-1550 AD）, and a dry event around 1590-1700 AD, punctuating the generally humid period （1550-1840 AD）, are clearly documented. Trends in the chironomid-based salinity time series indicate a highly unstable climate during the LIA when salinity fluctuations were of greater magnitude and higher frequency. The effective moisture evolution in the Sugan Lake catchment during the last millennium reconstructed by chironomid analysis is in broad agreement with previous palaeo-moisture data derived from other sites in arid Northwest China （ANC）. The LIA, characterized by generally humid conditions over the westerly-dominated ANC was distinctly different from that in monsoonal China, implying an ＂out-of-phase＂ relationship between moisture evolution in these two regions during the past 1000 years.     

Global mean temperature changes during the last millennium

A synthetic study is made on the global or hemispheric mean temperature series for the last millennium worked out by Mann et al., Jones et al., Crowley and Lowery, and Briffa. The global mean temperature series reconstructed by using proxy data at 30 sites by Wang et al. and simulations from AD 1000 to 2000 by energy balance model are described and compared with the series of others. Wang's series gives greater variability and shows the highest correlation coefficient (0.83) with the simulation results. Uncertainties in the reconstructions and simulations are discussed. The errors in reconstructing a global mean temperature series according to 30 sites as used in the research are estimated. Wang's series indicate that temperature average for the 11th century is higher than the mean of the last millennium. It infers that the Medieval Warm Period predominated to some extent over the globe. However, the 20th century is no doubt the warmest century during the last millennium.     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450?C1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pattern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400?C1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

1970—2013年中国东北地区强冷空气活动特征

利用1970-2013年NCEP-NCAR再分析资料以及中国基本基准825站地面气温均一化数据集,采用改进后的三维风速轨迹倒推方法,追踪了冬半年(10月至次年4月)入侵中国东北的强冷空气路径.结果表明:有西北路径230次,偏西路径75次,偏北路径101次.临近爆发前的环流演变导致三类冷气团大幅增温,削弱了不同源地的位温差异.偏西路径年频次减少幅度为0.26次/10a,而其他两类年频次没有明显变化趋势.相比之下,偏西路径强冷空气主要影响中国东北地区;西北路径强冷空气在东北地区能持续2.4d以上,并且对中国中东部以及南方地区的影响强于偏西路径;偏北路径强冷空气更易于在东北地区以及中国中东部地区造成异常低温事件,在南方地区可以形成持续2.8d以上的冷害.     

Millennial temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring widths of Qilian juniper from Wulan, Qinghai Province, China

The climate of the past 1000 years is an important context for evaluating the recent climate warming. However, there are few 1000-year-long climate reconstructions with annual resolution in the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, a dendroclimatic analysis was conducted for the radial growth of Qilian juniper from the upper forest limit in Wulan, Qinghai Province. The results of correlation analysis between the tree-ring widths and the climate variables indicate that the growth of junipers at the upper forest limit is mainly limited by low temperatures of September, November and February of the pregrowth season, and July of the current growth season. There is no significant correlation between the tree-ring widths and precipitation. A mean temperature from the previous year＇s September to the current year＇s April was reconstructed for the Wulan area since A.D. 1000. The reconstruction can explain 40.8% of the instrumental variance in the calibration period （1856-2002）. The reconstruction shows that the 20th century is the warmest 100 years, and the 1990s is the warmest decade during the past 1000 years, while the coldest 100 years and decade occur at 1600-1699 and 1642-1651, respectively. The variations are verified well by the temperature reconstruction of the middle Qilian Mountain （QL） and the total organic carbon （TOC） in the Qinghai Lake sediments. The comparison of our reconstruction with the annual temperature reconstruction of extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere suggests that the climate of Wulan during the Medieval Warm Period is of obvious regional specialty, but there was a good response to the climate of hemispheric scales during the recent 400 years.     

Key points on temperature change of the past 2000 years in China

Itisimportanttostudythetemperaturechangeduringthepast 2 0 0 0 yearsforunderstandingtheis suessuchasthegreenhouseeffectandglobalwarminginducedbyhumanactivities .Chinahasadvantagesinreconstructinghistoricalclimatechangeforitsabun dantdocumentedhistoricalrecordsandothernaturalevidenceobtainedfromtreerings ,lakesediments ,icecores ,andstalagmite .SinceDr .Chulaidafounda tiononthestudyoftemperaturechangeinChinaforthepast 5 0 0 0 years[1] ,significantprogressinthestudyoftemperaturechangeofthepast 2…     

沥青面层的疲劳等效温度

分析了沥青面层疲劳寿命与面层温度的均值和梯度的相互关系.基于疲劳损伤等效原则,给出了沥青路面面层疲劳等效温度的计算方法.根据全国95个地区多年的路面温度场数据,对沥青面层疲劳等效温度进行了计算和分析,总结了沥青面层基准疲劳等效温度与地区海拔、路表温度特征值(多年路表温度均值和标准差)之间的回归关系,据此推算得到了全国738个地区的沥青面层基准疲劳等效温度值,并绘制了可供设计采用的全国沥青面层基准疲劳等效温度等值线图,归纳了非基准条件下各因素对沥青面层疲劳等效温度的影响规律,给出了各因素修正计算式.最后通过对比分析,验证了沥青面层疲劳等效温度计算方法和结果的可靠性.     

Decadal-scale precipitation variations in arid and semiarid zones of northern China during the last 500 years

Regional decadal precipitation reconstructions for the arid and semi-arid zones of northern China were established by the use of different palaeoclimate archives such as ice-cores, tree-rings, lake sediments and written historical documents. Local rainfall reconstructions from single sites were averaged to obtain regional precipitation records for western and eastern regions of an arid and semiarid zone of northern China, respectively. All established regional precipitation curves display 5 dry periods, each lasting about 50 years. Meanwhile, precipitation reconstructions show regional dissimilarities. During the last 500 years, the trends of precipitation change in the eastern arid region are basically consistent with those in the western and eastern regions of the semiarid zone. Precipitation variations in the western arid region are unique, showing significant local patterns of rainfall variability. Maximum entropy method (MEM) spectral estimates show that each regional precipitation series contains stationary century-scale periodicities of about 120 a.Singular spectrum analysis was applied to isolating the century-scale oscillation signals from the regional proxy precipitation series. Significant periods with wavelengths of 121.4a, 154.6a, 124.3a, 118.6a, 108.5a and 121.4a were found 26.56%, 26.44%, 28.87%, 18.67%, 33.48% and 34.04% of the variances of the original series for the western arid zone,the eastern arid zone, the whole arid zone, the western semiarid zone, the eastern semiarid zone and whole northern China, respectively.     

中国道路交通事故变化趋势预测

道路交通事故在中国已成为威胁人民群众生命财产安全和社会可持续发展的严重问题。对过去10年间中国道路交通事故时间序列数据进行分析,建立了11个预测模型,用平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)对各种预测模型进行寻优,并用筛选出的最优预测模型对2004～2007年中国道路交通事故死亡人数和直接经济损失进行预测。研究结果可为相关问题的科学决策提供可靠的依据。     

Regional differences in the timing of recent air warming during the past four decades in China

Global surface temperature has dramatically increased in the past decades. It is critical to evaluate such a change using appropriate approaches. The previous studies for assessment of the change usually used overall trends of temperature series (i.e. slopes of simple linear regression of temperature versus year based on a least-square analysis) for entire study period. Temperature trends, however, differ among different periods, i.e. there are often breakpoints in the temperature series. Therefore, the overall linear trend of a temperature series may conceal some of the temporal characteristics of the temperature change. To precisely characterize the temporal and spatial patterns of air temperature change in China, we analyze the annual mean temperature series between the year of 1961–2004 for 536 meteorological stations across China, using piecewise linear regression approach. We found remarkable breakpoints in the annual mean temperature during the study period across the country. The annual mean temperature started to increase in 1984 at a rate of 0.058°C/a at the country level. The year when warming started appeared to be gradually later from the north to the south: temperature increased since the 1970s in the north (north of 40°N), and did not rise until the 1980s in most areas of the south (south of 40°N), with warming starting in 1983 in the Tibetan Plateau. The trends in annual mean temperatures showed a large spatial heterogeneity across China: a relatively small rising with a rate of 0.025–0.05°C/a in the Sichuan Basin, Central China and South China; the greatest increase in some parts of northwest China (i.e. Xinjiang) with up to a rate of 0.1°C/a; and rising at a rate of >0.05°C/a for most regions of the country. The feedbacks of cold waves and snow may be responsible for such regional differences in the timing and rates of warming in China.     

通辽地区捕食性瓢虫初步调查

通辽地区捕食性瓢虫一年发生三或四代，3月上旬出哲,首先出现在易感蚜虫的植物上觅食，第一代发生于5月下旬～7月中旬，第二代于6月上旬发生，第三代于6月下旬发生，第四代于7月中下旬发生，世代重叠现象严重，9月下旬10月初以二、三或四代成虫越冬七星瓢虫、异色瓢虫越冬有群集性．捕食性瓢虫食性广，食量大，对蚜类发生有追随性，攻击取食，有卵食习性．温度、湿度、光照、风雨对成幼虫活动、取食、个体发育有影响．无孤雌生殖现象．捕食性瓢虫是本地区蚜虫等害虫的很好天敌,应加以保护．     

中国中世纪暖期温度的时空变化特征

采用全球海气耦合模式ECHO-G的1000个模式年的长积分气候模拟方法分析了中国中世纪暖期温度的存在性与时空变化特征.结果表明：中国的中世纪暖期出现在公元1000—1250年间,但它不是一个持续稳定的暖期,而是存在峰谷起伏变化,其中最暖的30年（中世纪暖期鼎盛期）出现在1131—1160年.中世纪暖期中国的年平均和冬、夏季平均温度距平变幅西部最大,东部最小.其鼎盛期中国的温度距平相对于千年温度都是正值,中国东部的增温幅度由南向北逐渐加大,变幅为0.4℃—0.8℃,而中国西部的增温呈Ω型分布,且随着海拔高度的增加,增温幅度逐渐加大,最大增温达2.0℃—2.2℃.     

气候变化对雄安新区城市建设的影响及应对策略

 利用全国近50年气象资料（雄安1974年以来的完整资料）,研究分析了全国尤其是雄安近几十年来的气候变化和气候生态特征。雄安属暖温带半湿润季风气候,气候背景与北京、天津类似。近几十年来,气温、降水等气象要素的变化趋势明显但幅度较弱,年平均气温变化趋势为平均每10年升高0.2℃,高温日数平均每10年增加0.8 d,暴雨日数呈减少趋势,上述要素的变化幅度虽低于全国及周边城市,但均显示出了气候变化对雄安的影响,且极端天气事件也呈增加的趋势,如强降雨重现期缩短,极端强降雨量明显增大等,这与IPCC（联合国气候变化政府间专门委员会）的报告和中国大部地区趋势一致。结合灾害历史资料分析和气候模式预测,指出在全球气候变暖背景下,雄安新区在发展中将面临气候变化背景下增加的气象灾害和气候风险,进而给出了相关城市建设的建议。     

Reconstruction of sea surface temperature series in the last 220 years by use of reef corals in Xisha waters, South China Sea

On the basis of construction of the growth rate thermometers by use ofPorites Iutea from the northern part of the South China Sea and the hindcast sea surface temperature (SST) in the last 100 years, we reconstructed the SST series in the past 220 years in the Xisha waters and analyzed the characteristics of the climatic change of that period. The results show that the low and high SST changes in the last 220 years in the Xisha waters appeared in the stage and the quasi-periodic variation within the century scale. The range of annual SST variation in the interage was increasing. The SST values were slightly rising during the last 100 years.     

气温变化的层次结构与未来气候变化趋势预测

用子波变换分析了Jones和Vinnikov南北半球近百年来气温资料,确定了气温变化的层次结构。结果发现,北半球在1923年前后、南半球在1939年前后发生了一次较大时间尺度的冷暖突变。提出了预测未来气候变化趋势的新思路,即根据气温变化的层次结构和不同层次的冷暖期特征时间尺度,预测未来气候变化。认为在北半球1923至2001年为大暖期,从2001年起将进入大冷期,大冷期约有77年;1991年至2001年是大暖期中相对凉爽的时期,80年代的增温事件将从1991年起趋于缓和。     

Amplitude of climatic changes in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

On the basis of ice core and meteorological data from the Qinghai-Tibetan (Q-T) Plateau, this article focuses on the discussion of the problems related to the sensitivity of temporal and spatial changes of the climate in high-altitude regions, particularly in the Q-T Plateau. The features of abrupt climatic changes of the past 100 ka, 2 000 a and recent years indicate that the amplitude of these changes in the Q-T Plateau was obviously larger than that in low-altitude regions. The scope of temperature change above 6 000 m in the Q-T Plateau between glacial and interglacial stages could reach over 10°C, but only about 4°C in low-elevation regions close to sea level. During the last 2 000 a, the amplitude of temperature changes at Guliya (over 6 000 m a.s.l.) in the Q-T Plateau reached 7°C, in comparison with 2°C in eastern China at low altitude. In the present age, apparent differences of climatic warming have been observed in the Q-T Plateau, indicating that the warming in high-elevation regions is much higher than that in low-elevation regions. The temperature in over 3 500 m regions of the Q-T Plateau have been increasing at a rate of 0.25×10¹/a in recent 30 years, but almost no change has taken place in the regions below 500 m. Thus, we concluded that high-altitude regions are more sensitive to climatic changes than the low-altitude regions.     

华南师范大学近10年来自然科学研究成果获奖情况的计量分析

通过利用文献计量的方法，对华南师范大学近10年（1994-2004年）的自然科学研究项目和成果在国内获奖情况进行统计分析，为学校科研管理部门的规划提供了一些参考。