Stability and change in ethnic groups in England and Wales

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Study (LS) is an exceptional resource for exploring dynamic processes in individuals' lives for a representative sample of the population of England and Wales and across a thirty year period, including how those processes vary by ethnic group. However, analyses tend to assume a certain stability in the meaning of the ethnic group being studied: the insights into ethnic group differentiation are premised on the fact that the group has the same meaning over time. Here we show how the LS allows us to challenge such notions of group stability. This has practical implications for the ways we measure and conceive of Britain's minority ethnic groups. We illustrate this point with two examples: one exploring the change in ethnic group identification by the same individuals between 1991 and 2001, and the second exploring how loss to follow up is differentially experienced according to ethnic group. We provide some suggestions on the implications of this ethnic group instability for other research.     

Older workers' withdrawal from the labour market 1991 to 2007: impact of socio-demographic characteristics, health and household circumstances

This article presents an analysis of the withdrawal from the labour market of older workers in England and Wales between 1991 and 1995 and in England between 2002/03 and 2006/07. It examines the relationship between withdrawal from the labour market and demographic and socio-economic characteristics of older workers, their labour market status, health status, housing, household circumstances and caring commitments at the start of each period being considered.     

The decline of intensive intergenerational care of older people in Great Britain, 1985-1995

There are increasing concerns about the future availability of informal care for older people, particularly care by their children. This article explores past trends in the provision of informal care by children/children-in-law to their older parents/parents-in-law between 1985 and 1995 in Great Britain, using successive General Household Survey data. The article suggests that, during this period, there was a decline in co-resident intergenerational care and that this was associated with a decline in highly intensive intergenerational care. The article explores possible factors underlying these trends, in particular, demographic changes and changes in patterns of formal care for older people.     

Family building intentions in England and Wales: trends,outcomes and interpretations

This article presents and analyses women's childbearing intentions collected in the General Household Survey (GHS). Data from the 21 surveys from 1979 to 2001 show that over that period there has been a fall in women's intended numbers of births. However the latest data (from the 1998, 2000 and 2001 surveys) show that the average number of children intended is still around two, somewhat higher than the average number of children current fertility rates suggest women will have. The questions of whether this difference can be interpreted as possible unmet need for children, whether past intentions have been good predictors of fertility, and how current intentions may be used to inform projections assumptions are discussed. In relation to the last question, fertility intentions by ethnic group are also presented.     

Changing economic and social roles: the experience of four cohorts of mid-life individuals in Britain, 1985-2000

Men and women in Great Britain are increasingly involved in a variety of economic and social roles, particularly during their mid-life period. This article examines the changes in role occupancy across four birth cohorts passing throughout mid-life over the period 1985-2000. Data from the General Household Survey is used to investigate the occupancy of four key roles: 'partner', 'parent', 'carer' and 'paid worker', analyzing separate and multiple role occupancies and level of commitment to a particular role. The implications of the findings for health and employment policies is also discussed.     

1991-2003年间中国科技投入经济效果的实证分析

以国家统计局发布的1991-2003年度统计数据为基础，运用广义的Cobb-Douglas生产函数，对中国科技投入的经济效果进行了实证分析，结果表明：中国科技投入不但对当期的经济增长具有促进作用，而且还存在滞后效应；中国科技投入对经济增长的滞后期只有两年，科技投入短视行为明显；中国在增加科技投入的总量的同时，更要对科技投入的结构、科技资源的优化配置和使用效率给予足够的重视。     

First births by age and education in Britain, France and Norway

Progressively later starting of childbearing has been a feature of cohort change in fertility across Europe and elsewhere over recent decades. Growing differences in the age patterns of childbearing between the Anglo-American and continental European countries, however, have also been found. The present study uses large linked-record databases in Britain, France and Norway to analyse these differences in more detail, focussing on age at entry to motherhood (first childbearing) by level of educational attainment among women born in the 1950s and in the 1960s. The shift between these two cohorts towards a later pattern of first childbearing in Britain was confined to women with secondary school qualifications and above. For women born in the 1960s, the peak age for risk of first childbearing among those with secondary school qualifications grew to be between seven and eleven years later than among women without secondary school qualifications. In France and Norway, the peak ages for risk of first childbearing shifted more uniformly across education levels between the two cohorts. For these 1950s and 1960s cohorts, improvements in women's educational levels also occurred more uniformly in France and Norway, moving more women into education categories characterised by later patterns of first childbearing.     

Information, evolution, and change

The basic premise of this paper is that the ethicality of systems can be improved by placing them on a more solid informational foundation. Information, evolution, and change are seen to be integrally related. An information typology of nonreferential, referential, and state-referential information is proposed to handle the ontological, epistemological, and teleological aspects of systems. These information types have a particular entailment relationship to each other. The typology and entailment ordering are seen as having important consequences for the design of social systems.     

International migration to and from the United Kingdom, 1975-1999: consistency, change and implications for the labour market

This article presents some findings of a recent study carried out for the Home Office by the Migration Research Unit (MRU) in the Department of Geography at UCL. The study was concerned with patterns and trends in international migration to and from the United Kingdom since 1975, with a particular focus on those in employment, and drew on many sources. The statistics analysed here derive from the International Passenger Survey, including hitherto unpublished tables provided by the Office for National Statistics on migration of the employed by citizenship. They indicate remarkable consistency in some aspects of migration flows and major change in others.     

Cohabitation and marriage in Britain since the 1970s

The article presents an overview of trends in cohabitation and marriage in Britain over several decades, using a consistent set of retrospective histories from the General Household Survey 1979-2007. Time-trends are presented, for men and women, of: the experience of different types of partnership by specified ages, the frequency of premarital cohabitation, the average time spent in different types of partnership, the timing of life course transitions, and the outcome of cohabitation and marriage at the fifth and tenth anniversaries.     

Mothers with living children and children with living mothers: the role of fertility and mortality in the period 1911-2050

Whether an individual has one or more surviving children at a given age and/or a surviving parent depends both on fertility (not only number of children, but also timing of childbearing) and mortality. We consider the contribution of changes in mortality and fertility to past and likely future trends on availability of such kin. The proportion of people aged 60 with a mother alive will more than double between those born in 1911 and 1970, and the figure will increase for at least the next 30 years. While there are increasing concerns about the availability of informal care for elderly people from children in the next quarter century or so, in fact we conclude that a higher proportion of elderly people are likely to have a surviving child than for any generation ever born in Britain, and will have more than any foreseeable future cohort.     

Inequalities in health--development and change

This article traces the changes that have taken place in the analysis and interpretation of health inequalities over the last 25 years. It sets these in their historic context, indicates how the debate on their validity and social context has shifted over the period and assesses the current evidence on the extent and importance of social variations.     

信息环境变化、投资者信息解读与特质信息含量

该研究旨在通过考察信息环境变化前后,分析师盈余预测行为和信息质量对投资者决策结果的影响,证明信息环境的变化可能通过改变投资者对信息的解读习惯,影响市场资源配置的效率.研究发现:会计准则变革后,财务分析师盈余预测的准确性下降,预测报告中特质信息含量也发生显著变化,进而使投资者更多关注报告中的行业和市场信息;会计准则变革前,盈余质量与股价同步性正相关,而会计准则变革后,盈余质量与股价同步性的正相关关系减弱或逆转,说明投资者信息处理效率并非一成不变,信息环境能影响投资者对于公司特质信息的发掘、解读和运用.文章指出提升财务分析师、普通投资者等社会公众对上市公司信息披露质量进行识别和监督的能力,对提高市场定价效率,促进资本市场的发展具有重要意义.     

烟台市耕地数量变化与经济发展人口增长关系的研究

利用改革开放20多年来烟台地区相关的统计资料,初步分析了该市耕地资源数量变化与经济发展、人口增长之间的关系,得出以下结论:①随着人口的增长、经济的迅猛发展和工业化、城市化进程的加快,烟台地区耕地资源持续减少;②经济发展和人口增长是耕地面积变化的主要驱动力;③耕地快速减少在发生时间上与经济的过热增长基本同步,在空间分布上与地区经济发展速度和水平的差异相一致,即随着地区间经济发展速度和水平的差异,烟台市耕地面积的减少程度由经济较发达地区向经济较不发达地区逐渐降低。因此,科学合理利用城市有限的土地资源,已经成为当前城市建设与发展以及规划决策所面临的紧迫问题。图4,表2,参14。     

Trends in fertility and contraception in the last quarter of the 20th century

The late 1960s and early 1970s saw major changes in access to birth control. This article reviews trends in fertility and contraception between 1976 when the Family Formation Survey was undertaken and 1998, the latest year for which data are available. There has been an increase in mean age at childbirth over the period. Some of this increase is possibly a result of childbearing in second and subsequent relationships when the women will be older on average. This also has had an impact on their patterns of contraception use. Teenage pregnancy is high on the Government's agenda. Teenage pregnancy continues at constant levels. As the estimated age of first intercourse decreases, there is a continued need for sufficient, accessible and appropriate family planning services.     

Identifying and incorporating change in information systems

The difficulty of identifying future requirements and the inflexibility of information systems make what is normally called the maintenance process difficult and costly, and may lead to information systems failure or obsolescence. This paper addresses the problem in a number of ways. It discusses three techniques which might be used to help identify future requirements. Two of these techniques are drawn from other disciplines; the third is not used widely in the information systems domain. All the techniques have broader applicability than maintenance alone, in that they are concerned with reducing uncertainty. The paper outlines some tenets of good applications software design, drawn from a number of sources, which will facilitate change by making the software design more flexible. Finally, these tenets are incorporated into information systems design through a proposed modification of the information systems life cycle framework. This framework—part of a “code of good practice” for information systems developers—could be incorporated into information systems development methodologies.     

Complexity and change: Reflections upon the cybernetic intervention in Chile, 1970–1973

Social change depends on communications. The more effective the communication mechanisms between the participants in a situation are, the more likely it is that they will contribute, to the best of their abilities, to the discovery and production of desirable change. Hence the relevance of studying, and improving, the cybernetics of problem situations. Effectiveness in this case is defined by the degree to which the complexity of the situation is matched by the complexity of the regulatory mechanisms in use. However, if this proposition is going to be useful, it is necessary to have approaches to work out the matching. This paper discusses a cybernetic methodology, relying on Beer's Viable System Model, which enables a deeper understanding of, and capacity to deal with, situational and regulatory complexities. Finally, these ideas are used to reflect upon the cybernetic intervention in the Chile of the early 1970's.