How have administrative sources been used to adjust population estimates and set plausibility ranges?

This article reviews existing methods employed by various countries in the use of administrative data to make adjustments to, or set plausibility ranges around, population estimates or census data. The work was carried out to explore techniques that could be used by the ONS in application with population estimates. An annex also covers benefits and difficulties that have been experienced when producing a register-based census, or population estimates.     

An analysis of patient register data in the Longitudinal Study - what does it tell us about the quality of the data?

This article uses data for members of the ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) from both Census 2001 enumeration and patient registrations "frozen" on census day 2001 from the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) to examine potential sources of difference in area of usual residence.Overall 95.7 per cent of ONS LS members enumerated at census resided in the same area as recorded on the NHSCR data. Where areas differed, or the ONS LS member was not on the NHSCR on census day, subsequent NHSCR records were examined. Records flagged on the NHSCR as ONS LS members in England and Wales on census day but with no census record were also investigated.     

The 2007 Census Test: evaluation of key objectives

The Office for National Statistics conducted a major census field test in May and June 2007 as part of the planning and preparation for the next census of population and housing in England and Wales in 2011. The 2007 Census Test was a large scale test covering approximately 100,000 household in five local authorities (LAs) selected to reflect a range of geographic conditions and social characteristics. Within England the Test covered parts of Bath and North East Somerset, Camden, Liverpool and Stoke on Trent. In Wales the Test took place in Carmarthenshire. The selected LAs were chosen to provide a varied cross section of the population and types of housing that would be covered in a full census. This article summarises the evaluation results and, where decided, decisions for 2011 on four key aspects of the Test: delivery method - post-out compared with hand delivery; inclusion of an income question; outsourcing recruitment, training and pay; and liaison with LAs.     

The creation of 'consistent areas through time' (CATTs) in Scotland, 1981-2001

Small area analysis of sociodemographic change over time is often impeded by the changing configuration of census zones for each decennial UK census. Approaches for matching zone configurations exist, but these typically require population estimation techniques, which inevitably involve some error. Because of the postcode-based geographical zoning system used in Scottish censuses, it is possible to create a local-area geography which is consistent for recent censuses. Here we present a methodology used to create three sets of consistent areas through time (CATTs) that can be used for analysing comparable small area data output from the 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.     

Change in living arrangements following death of a partner in England and Wales, 1971 to 2001

Understanding trends and changes in the circumstances of couples separated by death is important for policy initiatives to reduce vulnerabilities associated with end of life care and for those who live on. This article uses widow(er)hood statistics and census data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study. It examines changes in couples' living arrangements and households at four successive censuses from 1971 to 2001 and shows how these differ by age and gender on the death of a spouse or partner. Findings draw attention to the effects of ageing and mortality improvements as well as wider social and economic trends in family and household formation, residential independence in older age, and policy developments on long-term care provision for older people.     

Introducing the area classification of output areas

This article provides a brief introduction to the Area Classification of Output Areas. The classification uses data from the 2001 Census to group the 223,060 output areas into groups of similarity based on their census attributes. The classification is freely available as a 'National Statistic' via the National Statistics website.     

Looking beyond the 2001 Census

This article outlines the Office for National Statistics' strategic review process for the best way of meeting users' future requirements for information that has traditionally been collected by taking a census. It reports on a possible design for such a census in 2011 but also considers alternative approaches to collecting comparable information. The work described in this article is being undertaken within ONS and relates essentially to research on the census in England and Wales only. The General Register Office for Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency are, however, carrying out similar reviews.     

生命表理论与方法

本文给出了寿命分布的极大似然估计, 从而给出了现时人口寿命各参数的严格的概率意义, 并利用1990年人口普查10%抽样数据, 求得中国人口寿命表和简略寿命表。     

Rebasing the annual mid-year population estimates for England and Wales

The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.     

2011 census coverage assessment and adjustment strategy

Every effort is made to ensure everyone is counted in a census. However, no census is perfect and some people are missed. This underenumeration does not usually occur uniformly across all geographical areas or across other sub-groups of the population such as age and sex groups. Coverage levels in censuses across the world are declining leading to an increasing need to firstly slow the decline through improved enumeration, and secondly in improved methods and data for measuring coverage. In order to achieve the mission critical aims of the 2011 Census, a coverage assessment and adjustment strategy is required. This article outlines the proposed strategy for the 2011 UK Census. The strategy is to significantly improve upon the 2001 One Number Census, and use it as a platform to develop an improved coverage assessment and adjustment methodology. The article also outlines the key areas of innovation for the 2011 strategy and the options that will be considered in order to develop the final strategy. Stakeholder management is also an important part of the strategy to ensure that key users both buy into and understand the methodology. ONS will look to build on the consultation carried out prior to the 2001 Census and widen the user base with which it engages on this important topic.     

Quality assuring the 2011 Census population estimates

The 2011 Census is a once in a decade opportunity to gain an accurate picture of the population. Quality assurance of the census population estimates is vital to ensure data robustness and that users have confidence in the results. This article provides a detailed summary of the methods being used to achieve this quality assurance, including the processes and adjustments.     

基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的上海城镇养老保险人口分布预测

通过利用上海人口普查和1%人口抽样调查数据及历年统计年鉴数据,结合人口精算学递推和灰色动态GM(1,1)模型,对2008-2050年上海城镇养老保险"老人、中人、新人"在职和退休人口分布数据做出分类预测.在对人口预测结果曲线趋势分析基础上发现上海基本养老保险系统实现可持续发展中潜在的最大危机——退休人口抚养危机.研究结论对于上海市养老保险基金收支缺口测算及新人口政策制定具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.     

How serious is the modifiable areal unit problem for analysis of English census data?

Population data are often collected or presented for geographical areas which may have little or no connection to the processes generating the data. Such areal units are termed 'modifiable'. However analysis undertaken on such data is not independent of how these areal units are configured. Indeed, Openshaw (1984) and others have shown that the results of statistical analysis may differ wildly according to the scale and pattern of the areal units used. This phenomenon is called the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). It is clear that the MAUP exists, but far from clear about how often it occurs, how often it affects the conclusions from empirical data analysis, and in what contexts it makes most (or least) difference. British census data are well suited for investigating these issues, being available for different geographies which neatly nest within each other, and for a range of different variables of interest to central and local government and to many academic disciplines. This article is concerned with bivariate correlations (using Pearson's r) between pairs of variables. The aim is to see if any variables seem particularly liable to display MAUP effects, and if so, why. The conclusion is that MAUP in many cases makes little or no difference to the results, but there are some variable pairs where the effect is substantial.     

Method for quickly inferring the mechanisms of large-scale complex networks based on the census of subgraph concentrations

A Mechanism-Inferring method of networks exploited from machine learning theory can effectively evaluate the predicting performance of a network model. The existing method for inferring network mechanisms based on a census of subgraph numbers has some drawbacks, especially the need for a runtime increasing strongly with network size and network density. In this paper, an improved method has been proposed by introducing a census algorithm of subgraph concentrations. Network mechanism can be quickly inferred by the new method even though the network has large scale and high density. Therefore, the application perspective of mechanism-inferring method has been extended into the wider fields of large-scale complex networks. By applying the new method to a case of protein interaction network, the authors obtain the same inferring result as the existing method, which approves the effectiveness of the method. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 70401019.     

No vote--no census: an account of some of the events of 1910-1911

The 2011 Census on the 27 March will be the latest in a series spanning over two centuries and covering vast demographic changes in the British population. Although the underlying aim of each census since 1801 has been to obtain an accurate enumeration of the population, successive censuses have adapted to changing social and technological circumstances, asking appropriate questions and using the best available technology to compile results. A century ago, the 1911 Census represented a shift from earlier censuses in its use of machine tabulation. Despite this innovation, however, what is perhaps most interesting about 1911 is the social and political circumstances: the 1911 Census took place against the background of a threatened boycott by the suffragette movement. The article demonstrates how, though times change and technology moves on, a successful census was conducted despite the deeply sensitive political times.     

Novel method for the evaluation of data quality based on fuzzy control

One of the goals of data collection is preparing for decision-making, so high quality requirement must be satisfied. Rational evaluation of data quality is an effective way to identify data problem in time, and the quality of data after this evaluation is satisfactory with the requirement of decision maker. A fuzzy neural network based research method of data quality evaluation is proposed. First, the criteria for the evaluation of data quality are selected to construct the fuzzy sets of evaluating grades, and then by using the learning ability of NN, the objective evaluation of membership is carried out, which can be used for the effective evaluation of data quality. This research has been used in the platform of ＇data report of national compulsory education outlay guarantee＇ from the Chinese Ministry of Education. This method can be used for the effective evaluation of data quality worldwide, and the data quality situation can be found out more completely, objectively, and in better time by using the method.     

Implications of changes in the UK social and occupational classifications in 2001 for vital statistics

In 2001, three simultaneous changes were introduced which influence the reporting of vital statistics by socio-economic status. Registrar General's Social Class was replaced by the new National Statistics Socio-Economic Status (NS SEC); the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) was updated from SOC90 to SOC2000; and the coding of employment status on vital statistics changed to stay in line with census coding and SOC2000. This article reports on these changes and describes a method for coding data prior to 2001 to NS SEC (named NS SEC90) in order to facilitate the analysis of health inequalities over time. NS SEC90 allocates 90 per cent of deaths to the same analytical category as NS SEC. This figure varies according to sub group.     

组合评价收敛性验证的计算机模拟实验

通过计算机模拟实验对组合评价结论的收敛性进行研究,以便解决多方法评价结论非一致性问题.本实验分别运用大量的随机模拟数据和实例数据对不同类型评价方法的组合和再组合进行计算机模拟,实验结果表明组合评价具有很好的收敛性,经过若干次组合后,几种组合评价结论能迅速趋于一致,从而得到一致性的评价结果.     

基于仿真的复杂系统可靠性评估输入数据统计分析研究

对应用仿真技术评估复杂系统可靠性时榆入数据的统计分析进行了深入研究。特别是对试验数据较少，即小样本情况进行了研究。对于根据小样本进行的可靠性估计，结合Bayes方法的蒙特卡洛(Bayes-MC)方法和结合改进的Bootstrap方法的蒙特卡洛(改进的Bootstrap-MC)方法是比较有效的。概括总结了无数据情况下的专家经验估计三角分布方法，提出了改进的Bootstrap方法，将验前信息与专家经验纳入Bootstrap方法中，克服了该方法利用样本信息量不足的缺陷，使其更加完善与实用。在复杂系统的可靠性评估时，应采用综合或混合的方法。