Trends in A8 migration to the UK during the recession

A substantial proportion of contemporary migration flows to the UK are made by nationals from countries which have recently joined the EU. The nature of A8 migration during the recession is examined in this paper, mainly using data from the Worker Registration Scheme. The recession has seen a decline in new A8 migrants entering the UK labour market, but the decline has been sectorally uneven, with demand for migrant labour being most persistent in the agricultural sector, raising questions about why this part of the UK economy is so different.     

人口迁移导致区域两极分化的动力学分析

为揭示利益驱动下的人口迁移,由人均收入、公共服务资源人均占有量和平均年龄构造一个区域广义势。当某区域广义势高于各区域的平均时,该区域将有迁出者;那些广义势比平均广义势较低的区域将是这些迁出者的迁入区;向不同区域迁入的人则由依赖于两地间广义势之差的迁移概率决定。结果表明,净迁入(迁出)人口随时间指数衰减,迁出(迁入)区总人口、人均收入、公共服务资源人均占有量均呈现近似为指数方式衰减("反指数"方式增长),最后达到三者相互匹配的相对稳定态。信息熵、人口分布与斑图演化均显示一个两极化的有序化过程。     

Intergenerational replacement and migration in the countries and regions of the United Kingdom, 1971-2009

This article uses a recently proposed measure, the overall replacement ratio or ORR, to assess the extent to which migration alters intergenerational replacement within the United Kingdom. The UK as a whole can be seen to experience 'replacement migration' as immigration compensates for fertility below the replacement level. However, the article shows that the impact of migration differs radically in the different regions of the country. South East England experiences very substantial immigration from both the rest of the UK and overseas, far more than is needed for intergenerational replacement, whereas most of the rest of the UK sees little or no net immigration and the ORR remains below the replacement level.     

The UK population: how does it compare?

This is the fourth demographic report for the UK, providing an overview of the latest statistics on the population. This year's article compares the UK with other European countries and a range of nations from around the world. Statistical comparisons are made for fertility, mortality, ageing, migration and population density. The UK has an ageing population, but one that is not ageing as rapidly as some other countries such as Germany, Italy and Japan. Although life expectation in the UK is improving in line with most western European countries, relatively high levels of fertility ensure that the proportion of the population that is young remains high. Around one in ten residents of the UK are foreign born, a lower proportion than many developed countries. UK population density has increased steadily and is the fourth highest in the EU.     

Migration in later life: evidence from the British Household Panel Study

This article uses data from the British Household Panel Study over the period 1991 - 2007 to examine the factors associated with residential mobility among people aged 50 and over. In line with earlier research, the likelihood of migrating, that is, changing address, is found to vary according to the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the older person. Those in late middle age (50-59) and the oldest-old (90 and over) were most likely to move. Migration was also strongly associated with changes in partnership, health and economic status during the last 12 months, highlighting the importance of seeing migration within a life course context with certain life course events such as divorce, widowhood or retirement being important triggers for prompting a move. As divorce and remarriage become more common in later life, 'relationship driven migration' is likely to become more important, adding a new category to the classical typology of later life migration.     

The changing demographic picture of the UK: national statistician's annual article on the population

The population of the UK is currently growing at its fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing by two and a half per cent between mid-2001 and mid-2006. While life expectancy continues to increase, fertility rates have also been increasing in the last five years and are currently at their highest level since 1980. In addition, international migration has led to the UK population growing by an average of 500 people per day over the last five years. The population is also becoming increasingly diverse and mobile, and these factors make it increasingly challenging to measure population change accurately. This is the first of a series of annual reports on the population of the UK; these reports will provide an overview of the latest statistics on the population and will also focus on one specific topic - for this report the topic is fertility and, in particular, the impact of migration on fertility, but different topics will be covered in future years. The reports will also highlight the key strands of work being taken forward within the National Statistics Centre for Demography in order to improve UK population statistics. More detailed information on the populations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are available in the annual demographic reports produced by the respective devolved administrations.'     

The Need for a Systemic Approach to Change Management—A Case Study

Change is now a constant feature of organizational life, but the effectiveness of change management initiatives is often open to question. By reflecting on a case of change management involving a Higher Education Institution (HEI), this paper argues that, to be more effective, organizational change must be managed systemically. The paper first provides a systemic conceptual underpinning to change management, and then examines the case by comparing what had really happened with what might have happened if organizational change had been managed systemically. The analysis helps build an improved understanding of change management, and provides implications for future change management practice.     

Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.     

Modelling student age-groups in the subnational population projections for England: an investigation into potential improvements

This article describes research aimed at improving modeling of student age-groups in the ONS subnational population projections for England. A number of data-sources were investigated, and the research focused on Higher Education Statistics Agency data. Although the coverage of HESA data is not sufficient to enable student populations to be projected separately, the data have been used to devise an adjustment method for the student-age population. Both the data and method will be monitored and, if appropriate, used in future projections.     

Migrants from central and eastern Europe: local geographies

This article seeks to develop our geographical knowledge of labour migration into the UK by adopting a local authority approach, using data from the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) for the period May 2004-December 2006. WRS enables us to view at local level the distribution of new national groups (based on citizenship not country of birth as in the Census) and to identify some of the major characteristics of the new flows at local level, including nationality, industry, hours worked and hourly pay. The data allow only a partial view of the picture of immigration from the eight accession states and there are dangers in drawing detailed inferences about local situations. However, it appears that there are distinct geographies associated with this group of immigrants as a whole, with different national groups and in their economic characteristics.     

Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?

This article considers the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the UK over the last fifty years The findings take account of the revision to population estimates following the 2001 Census and are largely similar to the findings of a previous review carried out after the 1991 Census. The total population has been projected reasonably accurately but this is largely a chance result of compensating errors in the assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration. The largest differences between projected and actual populations are for the very young and the very old, while projections of the working age population have been comparatively accurate. Fertility and mortality errors have reduced in more recent projections, while migration errors have grown. However, this may simply reflect the volatility or stability of the respective time-series at the time the projections are made. Changes in estimates of the past and current size of the population (highlighted by the revisions made to population estimates following the 2001 Census) are also shown to play a part in explaining projection error.     

The Millennium Cohort Study

The Millennium Cohort Study is the latest in the line of British birth cohort studies. MCS resembles its predecessors which follow people born in 1946, 1958 and 1970 in the intention to become multi-purpose longitudinal data resource charting many aspects of individual's lives over time. The families of a sample of around 20,000 babies are being interviewed during 2001-02, when eligible babies reach 9 months, to establish the conditions from which they set out in life. The survey contrasts with the previous cohort studies in various ways. Instead of taking all births in one week, the sample of births is spread over a year; the births are from a selection of electoral wards, thereby enabling eventual analysis by neighbourhood characteristics; it also over samples children living in deprived areas, wards with high ethnic minority populations and samples have been boosted in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The latter UK country has not been covered by the other studies. It interviews fathers as well as mothers, and given that its initial funding comes via the ESRC, puts a greater emphasis on socio-economic data than in early parts of the other studies. MCS has been enhanced by additional Government funding. The research team, based at the Institute of Education, aims to deposit a multi-purpose dataset for public use at the ESRC data Archive in the Spring of 2003.     

Immigration, emigration and the ageing of the overseas-born population in the United Kingdom

This article uses data from the 1971 and 2001 Censuses, the 1999-2003 Labour Force Survey and the 1977 to 2002 International Passenger Survey to investigate the migration processes contributing to the age structure and ageing of the UK's overseas-born population. Overall almost half of recent decades' immigrants to the UK emigrate again within five years of arrival, but with large variation by overseas country of birth. Between half and two thirds of the immigrants born in the continental European Union, North America and Oceania emigrate again within five years, while 15 per cent of those born in the Indian subcontinent do so. Significant cumulative emigration more than five years after arrival is seen among earlier immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, the Caribbean Commonwealth and Europe. Large country-of-origin variations in the ratio of pension-age population to working-age population primarily reflect the country composition of immigration streams 30 or more years before.     

Stochastic differential equations and stochastic linear quadratic optimal control problem with Lévy processes

In this paper, the authors first study two kinds of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with Lévy processes as noise source. Based on the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of these SDEs and multi-dimensional backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) driven by Lévy processes, the authors proceed to study a stochastic linear quadratic (LQ) optimal control problem with a Lévy process, where the cost weighting matrices of the state and control are allowed to be indefinite. One kind of new stochastic Riccati equation that involves equality and inequality constraints is derived from the idea of square completion and its solvability is proved to be sufficient for the well-posedness and the existence of optimal control which can be of either state feedback or open-loop form of the LQ problems. Moreover, the authors obtain the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the Riccati equation for some special cases. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate these theoretical results. This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under Grant No. 2007CB814904, the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 10671112 and Shandong Province under Grant No. Z2006A01, and Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China under Grant No. 20060422018.     

Transient Queue Size Distribution Solution of Geom / G / 1 Queue with Feedback-A Recursive Method

This paper considers the Geom / G / 1 queueing model with feedback according to a late arrival system with delayed access (LASDA). Using recursive method, this paper studies the transient property of the queue size from the initial state N(0⁺) = i. Some new results about the recursive expression of the transient queue size distribution at any epoch n ⁺ and the recursive formulae of the equilibrium distribution are obtained. Furthermore, the recursive formulae of the equilibrium queue size distribution at epoch n ⁻, and n are obtained, too. The important relations between stationary queue size distributions at different epochs are discovered (being different from the relations given in M / G / 1 queueing system). The model discussed in this paper can be widely applied in all kinds of communications and computer network. This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 70871084, the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China under Grant No. 200806360001, and the Scientific Research Fund of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics.     

中国城乡迁移年龄模式的研究

分析了中国１９９０年人口普查问卷中迁移项目的特点,指出从原始数据估计迁移人口迁移年龄的困难及克服此困难所必须引入的假定,提出了在较弱的假定下估计各种按龄迁移人口及按龄人口迁移率的方法。据此方法可得出１９８５年到１９８９年四年间平均按龄迁移量、平均按龄人口数及平均按龄迁移率。作为应用,对“四普”中城乡人口迁移的年龄模式进行了分析,并与联合国人口迁移的年龄模式进行了比较,发现中国城乡迁移特殊的年龄模式     

相关风险函数VaR的界

以VaR作为风险测度，利用Copula的有关理论给出美元／英镑和加元／英镑两支汇率的风险函数在一定水平下的VaR的最优边界。在比较不同类Copula的相关性时，用Kendall τ作为比较的依据。本文的方法对其他风险测度和由更多金融产品组成的组合投资同样适用。     

基于时变Copula的金融开放与风险传染

利用时变Copula研究开放进程下中国大陆股市与国际主要股市间的风险传染问题.用AR(1)-GJR(1,1)-t模型描述各国股指收益率的边际分布, 以时变SJCCopula描述 股指收益率间的动态相依性,分析中国大陆股市与美国股市、英国股市、日本股市以及香港股市2000年1月至2010年11月期间的风险联动. 实证结果表明:在开放进程中中国大陆股市与美国、英国以及日本股市一直保持微弱的下尾相依关系,而与香港股市间 的下尾相依性则随开放程度增加整体上呈显著上升趋势;而与各国际股市的上尾相依性则一直保持较低的水平.     

Management Sciences/Operational Research Units in Business and Management Courses in the UK

The paper reviews the development of management science/operational Research (MS/OR) in management education and explore how far the syllabuses of undergraduate business courses and MBA courses in the UK, are giving space to the teaching of management sciences methodologies (MSM). The academic phase of early MS/OR is outlined and a time-based framework to map the evolution of four MS/OR discourses informing a set of MSMs currently in use is advanced. At an undergraduate level the review is based on a sample taken from Universities and Colleges Admissions Services (UCAS) of business and management studies degrees and at a postgraduate level the review considers a sample of MBA programmes offered by six UK universities. Results indicate that most of the MBA courses include a core unit in quantitative methods in the first year and that universities are still at large teaching the ??hard?? end of the MSM spectrum, the type of problem solving methods developed in the 1950s and 1960s. Business courses incorporating units containing systemic thinking and management sciences methodologies developed from the 1970s to now (e.g.: soft systems methodology, viable systems model, cognitive mapping), are rarely taught at undergraduate (UG) level; and at post-graduate (PG) level they have been confined to a handful of institutions in the UK. The paper highlights the fact that MSMs associated with the soft and critical end of the spectrum are still lacking of credibility amongst the designers of management education at both undergraduate and graduate management education. Conclusions from the survey results are drawn and an agenda for further research is proposed.     

复杂网络实证研究——中国教育网

通过对中国教科网中.edu.cn域名下的网页进行搜索,建立了一个由366 422个网页和540 755条网页之间的超链接构成的复杂有向网络———中国教育网。经分析发现该网络的网页分别处于四个不同的层次上,各网页自组织连接构成一个复杂有向网络。大部分节点具有入连接边,只有少数节点具有出连接边,既有入连接边又有出连接边的节点就更少,节点度分布尾部呈幂律分布。该网络演化时,网页的增添通常仅在各高校子网中选择有关网页进行连接,不会在整个中国教育网中去择优连接。根据中国教育网的这些特点提出了该有向网络的演化模型,模型反映了中国教育网的一些主要特征。