Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.     

Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress

The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults.     

Lushan M S7.0 earthquake: A special earthquake occurs on curved fault

Relocation result shows that the aftershocks of the Lushan M _S7.0 earthquake spatially distribute in a shape like “half bowl”, indicating that the rupture structure of the mainshock is a highly curved surface. Kinematic analysis reveals that a laterally varied dislocation pattern occurs on this curved fault even though a single relative horizontal movement controls slip on this fault. Reverse slip prevails on curved fault. However, significant normal slip is predicted near the edge of north flank. Moreover, the north flank features left-lateral slip while the south flank contrarily features right-lateral slip. The relative scope of aftershock distribution implies inadequate breaking of the curved fault during the mainshock, calling for the attention to potential earthquake risk on the neighboring portions of the coseismic rupture due to significant increase of the coseismic Coulomb stress. Coseismic stress modeling also reveals that it is unnecessary for the stress on ruptured part to be unloaded following the earthquakes on the curved fault. The coseismic stress loading on ruptured elements unveils the specialty of faulting for the Lushan earthquake and we conclude that this specialty is due to the highly curved fault geometry.     

Aftershocks driven by a high-pressure CO2 source at depth

In northern Italy in 1997, two earthquakes of magnitudes 5.7 and 6 (separated by nine hours) marked the beginning of a sequence that lasted more than 30 days, with thousands of aftershocks including four additional events with magnitudes between 5 and 6. This normal-faulting sequence is not well explained with models of elastic stress transfer, particularly the persistence of hanging-wall seismicity that included two events with magnitudes greater than 5. Here we show that this sequence may have been driven by a fluid pressure pulse generated from the coseismic release of a known deep source of trapped high-pressure carbon dioxide (CO2). We find a strong correlation between the high-pressure front and the aftershock hypocentres over a two-week period, using precise hypocentre locations and a simple model of nonlinear diffusion. The triggering amplitude (10-20 MPa) of the pressure pulse overwhelms the typical (0.1-0.2 MPa) range from stress changes in the usual stress triggering models. We propose that aftershocks of large earthquakes in such geologic environments may be driven by the coseismic release of trapped, high-pressure fluids propagating through damaged zones created by the mainshock. This may provide a link between earthquakes, aftershocks, crust/mantle degassing and earthquake-triggered large-scale fluid flow.     

Relocation of the mainshock and aftershock sequences of M S7.0 Sichuan Lushan earthquake

The mainshock of April 20, 2013 Sichuan Lushan M _S7.0 earthquake was relocated using a 3-D velocity model. Double difference algorithm was applied to relocate aftershock sequences of Lushan earthquake. The locations of 2405 aftershocks were determined. The location errors in E-W, N-S and U-D direction were 0.30, 0.29 and 0.59 km on average, respectively. The location of the mainshock is 102.983°E, 30.291°N and the focal depth is 17.6 km. The relocation results show that the aftershocks spread approximately 35 km in length and 16 km in width. The dominant distribution of the focal depth ranges from 10 to 20 km. A few earthquakes occurred in the shallow crust. Focal depth profiles show fault planes dip to the northwest, manifested itself as a listric thrust fault. The dip angle is steep in the shallow crust and gentle in the deep crust. Although the epicenters of aftershocks distributed mainly along both sides of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault, the seismogenic fault may be a blind thrust fault on the eastern side of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault. Earthquake relocation results reveal that there is a southeastward tilt aftershock belt intersecting with the seismogenic fault with y-shape. We speculate it is a back thrust fault that often appears in a thrust fault system. Lushan earthquake triggered the seismic activity of the back thrust fault.     

Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses

It is thought that small 'static' stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of, or trigger, earthquakes on nearby faults. Many studies of triggering in the near-field, particularly of aftershocks, rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault. Here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude Mw = 7.3 Landers earthquake, not only with static stress changes but also with transient, oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves (that is, 'dynamic' stresses). Dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone. These dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by, and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred. We find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns, the latter being due to rupture propagation, whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry. Previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances, but here we show that they can also do so nearby.     

Earthquake nucleation by transient deformations caused by the M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake

The permanent and dynamic (transient) stress changes inferred to trigger earthquakes are usually orders of magnitude smaller than the stresses relaxed by the earthquakes themselves, implying that triggering occurs on critically stressed faults. Triggered seismicity rate increases may therefore be most likely to occur in areas where loading rates are highest and elevated pore pressures, perhaps facilitated by high-temperature fluids, reduce frictional stresses and promote failure. Here we show that the 2002 magnitude M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered widespread seismicity rate increases throughout British Columbia and into the western United States. Dynamic triggering by seismic waves should be enhanced in directions where rupture directivity focuses radiated energy, and we verify this using seismic and new high-sample GPS recordings of the Denali mainshock. These observations are comparable in scale only to the triggering caused by the 1992 M = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake, and demonstrate that Landers triggering did not reflect some peculiarity of the region or the earthquake. However, the rate increases triggered by the Denali earthquake occurred in areas not obviously tectonically active, implying that even in areas of low ambient stressing rates, faults may still be critically stressed and that dynamic triggering may be ubiquitous and unpredictable.     

日本Mw9.0级地震的库仑应力变化及对余震的触发

采用已公布的1个前震和3个主震震源可变滑动模型,计算了日本Mw7.3级前震、M_w9.0级主震产生的同震库仑应力变化,并采用哈佛Global CMT和日本F-net余震目录,在不同有效摩擦系数取值下计算了主震对余震的触发效应,分析了应力空间分布与余震活动空间分布的相关性。研究表明,日本地震前震对主震有触发作用,前震在主震处产生的正应力变化为0.404 bar,剪应力变化0.282 bar,同震库仑应力变化为0.517 bar,应力变化超过了应力触发阈值0.1 bar,达5倍之多,属于典型的地震应力触发,而非诱发事件。主震对后续余震有触发效应,最小触发率为57%,最大达到75%。余震多分布在主震产生的同震库仑应力红色加载区。同时,分析了可变滑动模型、有效摩擦系数、余震目录、震级及节面选取等对计算结果的影响。可变滑动模型、有效摩擦系数变化对计算结果影响不大,余震目录、震级及节面选取对结果有一定影响,尤其是当余震目录足够多、震级足够大时,计算结果更加可靠。为了深入讨论节面选取对计算结果的影响,对余震两个节面上库仑应力、剪切应力及正应力变化差值进行了频次统计。分析显示节面选取对正应力有一定影响,而对库仑应力及剪应力影响不大。     

Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.     

Earthquakes as beacons of stress change

Aftershocks occurring on faults in the far-field of a large earthquake rupture can generally be accounted for by changes in static stress on these faults caused by the rupture. This implies that faults interact, and that the timing of an earthquake can be affected by previous nearby ruptures. Here we explore the potential of small earthquakes to act as 'beacons' for the mechanical state of the crust. We investigate the static-stress changes resulting from the 1992 Landers earthquake in southern California which occurred in an area of high seismic activity stemming from many faults. We first gauge the response of the regional seismicity to the Landers event with a new technique, and then apply the same method to the inverse problem of determining the slip distribution on the main rupture from the seismicity. Assuming justifiable parameters, we derive credible matches to slip profiles obtained directly from the Landers mainshock. Our results provide a way to monitor mechanical conditions in the upper crust, and to investigate processes leading to fault failure.     

Stress changes from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin

On 12 May 2008, the devastating magnitude 7.9 (Wenchuan) earthquake struck the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau, collapsing buildings and killing thousands in major cities aligned along the western Sichuan basin in China. After such a large-magnitude earthquake, rearrangement of stresses in the crust commonly leads to subsequent damaging earthquakes. The mainshock of the 12 May earthquake ruptured with as much as 9 m of slip along the boundary between the Longmen Shan and Sichuan basin, and demonstrated the complex strike-slip and thrust motion that characterizes the region. The Sichuan basin and surroundings are also crossed by other active strike-slip and thrust faults. Here we present calculations of the coseismic stress changes that resulted from the 12 May event using models of those faults, and show that many indicate significant stress increases. Rapid mapping of such stress changes can help to locate fault sections with relatively higher odds of producing large aftershocks.     

Evidence from the AD 2000 Izu islands earthquake swarm that stressing rate governs seismicity

Magma intrusions and eruptions commonly produce abrupt changes in seismicity far from magma conduits that cannot be associated with the diffusion of pore fluids or heat. Such 'swarm' seismicity also migrates with time, and often exhibits a 'dog-bone'-shaped distribution. The largest earthquakes in swarms produce aftershocks that obey an Omori-type (exponential) temporal decay, but the duration of the aftershock sequences is drastically reduced, relative to normal earthquake activity. Here we use one of the most energetic swarms ever recorded to study the dependence of these properties on the stress imparted by a magma intrusion. A 1,000-fold increase in seismicity rate and a 1,000-fold decrease in aftershock duration occurred during the two-month-long dyke intrusion. We find that the seismicity rate is proportional to the calculated stressing rate, and that the duration of aftershock sequences is inversely proportional to the stressing rate. This behaviour is in accord with a laboratory-based rate/state constitutive law, suggesting an explanation for the occurrence of earthquake swarms. Any sustained increase in stressing rate--whether due to an intrusion, extrusion or creep event--should produce such seismological behaviour.     

Decay of aftershock density with distance does not indicate triggering by dynamic stress

Resolving whether static or dynamic stress triggers most aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks is essential to understand earthquake interaction and to forecast seismic hazard. Felzer and Brodsky examined the distance distribution of earthquakes occurring in the first five minutes after 2?≤?M?相似文献   

汶川地震序列震源机制解研究

利用2008年5月12日至8月7日包括国家地震台网、 地方区域地震台网和流动地震台网在内的1023个地震台站及IRIS台站的数字地震波形记录资料, 读取P波初动极性, 并采用改进的格点尝试法对汶川地震序列震源机制解进行求解, 给出121个4.0级以上质量可靠的震源机制解。根据求解结果发现: 汶川Ms 8.0级主震P波初动解为纯逆冲型; 汶川余震序列震源机制解绝大部分是逆冲型或走滑型地震, 并具有分段分布特征; 其P轴方位有两个优势分布方向: 北西西?南东东向和北东东?南西西向。     

Space geodetic evidence for rapid strain rates in the New Madrid seismic zone of central USA

In the winter of 1811-1812, near the town of New Madrid in the central United States and more than 2,000 km from the nearest plate boundary, three earthquakes within three months shook the entire eastern half of the country and liquefied the ground over distances far greater than any historic earthquake in North America. The origin and modern significance of these earthquakes, however, is highly contentious. Geological evidence demonstrates that liquefaction due to strong ground shaking, similar in scale to that generated by the New Madrid earthquakes, has occurred at least three and possibly four times in the past 2,000 years (refs 4-6), consistent with recurrence statistics derived from regional seismicity. Here we show direct evidence for rapid strain rates in the area determined from a continuously operated global positioning system (GPS) network. Rates of strain are of the order of 10(-7) per year, comparable in magnitude to those across active plate boundaries, and are consistent with known active faults within the region. These results have significant implications for the definition of seismic hazard and for processes that drive intraplate seismicity.     

Extent, duration and speed of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake imaged by the Hi-Net array

The disastrous Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 was one of the largest ever recorded. The damage potential of such earthquakes depends on the extent and magnitude of fault slip. The first reliable moment magnitude estimate of 9.0 was obtained several hours after the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, but more recent, longer-period, normal-mode analyses have indicated that it had a moment magnitude of 9.3, about 2.5 times larger. Here we introduce a method for directly imaging earthquake rupture that uses the first-arriving compressional wave and is potentially able to produce detailed images within 30 min of rupture initiation. We used the Hi-Net seismic array in Japan as an antenna to map the progression of slip by monitoring the direction of high-frequency radiation. We find that the rupture spread over the entire 1,300-km-long aftershock zone by propagating northward at roughly 2.8 km s(-1) for approximately 8 minutes. Comparisons with the aftershock areas of other great earthquakes indicate that the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake did indeed have a moment magnitude of approximately 9.3. Its rupture, in both duration and extent, is the longest ever recorded.     

Seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes as observed by temporally continuous gravity variations in China

In the last decade and a half, a number of earthquakes of magnitude 4–5 have occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiakou (BTTZ) region. On the basis of the analysis of the temporally continuous gravity variation data principally from the Baijiatuan (BJTN) semi-permanent gravity base station, a general picture of gravity variation related to the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes has emerged. As gravity variation is generally observed on the earth’s surface, the predominant influence is that of the near-surface groundwater. The subsurface fluids are distributed throughout all depths in the crust and respond to the seismogenic processes of earthquakes as well. The influence of the subsurface fluid on gravity variation is, therefore, of equal importance. The fluids, which include the near-surface groundwater and the subsurface fluids distributed throughout all depths in the crust, play a more important role in the gravity variations in terms of the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes than previously realized. The abundance of accumulated data shows that the dilatancy instability (IPE) model seems not applicable at least to the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes in the BTTZ region. In order to reflect the physical reality, the earlier proposed combined dilatancy model requires modification. The seismogenic area in the BTTZ region may be modelled as a large pre-stressed volume of a fluid-filled poroelastic medium, including not only the pre-stressed volume surrounding the impending rupture zone but also the volume containing the rupture of the fault zone itself. The pre-stressed volume outside the impending rupture zone is under a state of relatively small change of the pre-existing regional tectonic stress, while the volume containing the impending rupture zone is an induced region of very high local stress concentration, and/or pore over-pressure. The calculated gravity variations based on the modified combined dilatancy model (MCDM) with the known physical parameters of the region resemble the observed residual gravity variations. Apparently the residual gravity variations, in addition to responding to the deep-seated seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes, predominantly respond to the near-surface groundwater, and the subsurface fluids, which themselves also respond to the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes. On the basis of comparison between the calculated MCDM gravity variations and the observed residual gravity variations, the change of the regional tectonic stress field for the earthquakes of magnitude 4–5 in the BTTZ region could be approximately estimated to be in the neighbourhood of 5%–7%. It is apparent that simultaneously monitoring the temporally continuous variations of the near-surface groundwater, subsurface fluids, and gravity coupled with modelling would provide vital information on the history and evolution of the seismogenic processes about 10 months to 1 year prior to the occurrence of an earthquake of magnitude 4–5 and tens of years prior to that of an earthquake of magnitude 7–8 such as the Haicheng earthquake in 1975 and the Tangshan earthquake in 1976 in the BTTZ region. These earthquakes of magnitude 4–5, which so far have occurred in the BTTZ region, may well be the precursory events to a larger earthquake. L-DEO, Columbia University, Contribution No. 5613.     

Post-earthquake ground movements correlated to pore-pressure transients

Large earthquakes alter the stress in the surrounding crust, leading to triggered earthquakes and aftershocks. A number of time-dependent processes, including afterslip, pore-fluid flow and viscous relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle, further modify the stress and pore pressure near the fault, and hence the tendency for triggered earthquakes. It has proved difficult, however, to distinguish between these processes on the basis of direct field observations, despite considerable effort. Here we present a unique combination of measurements consisting of satellite radar interferograms and water-level changes in geothermal wells following two magnitude-6.5 earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone. The deformation recorded in the interferograms cannot be explained by either afterslip or visco-elastic relaxation, but is consistent with rebound of a porous elastic material in the first 1-2 months following the earthquakes. This interpretation is confirmed by direct measurements which show rapid (1-2-month) recovery of the earthquake-induced water-level changes. In contrast, the duration of the aftershock sequence is projected to be approximately 3.5 years, suggesting that pore-fluid flow does not control aftershock duration. But because the surface strains are dominated by pore-pressure changes in the shallow crust, we cannot rule out a longer pore-pressure transient at the depth of the aftershocks. The aftershock duration is consistent with models of seismicity rate variations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws.     

鸟取MJMA 7.3级地震震源区地震层析成像研究

采用2000年日本鸟取MJMA7.3级地震的907个余震及其地方震的24 756个P波和22 547个S波到时,确定鸟取地震震源区的P波、S波和泊松比的三维结构.在震源区地震波速变化幅度达4%,泊松比变化幅度达9%.在11 km深度发现高波速和低泊松比异常,表明这一部位为刚性的粗糙断层面,形成断裂带的锁定结构,它的破裂产生鸟取地震的主震.低波速和高泊松比异常在震源区之下的地壳中出现,这与菲律宾板块俯冲带的脱水过程和岩浆活动有关,导致Daisen弧后火山的形成.流体运动和岩浆活动,对鸟取地震的成核和破裂过程有重大的影响.     

阿克陶MW6.6地震的发震构造及滑动特征

2016年11月25日新疆阿克陶发生了M_W6.6地震。通常震中所处断层的破裂特性与周围区域应力场的动力学特征具有紧密的联系。通过对发震构造断层的精确刻画以及区域地壳中应力释放细节的深入探究,可以加深对发震构造周围地震动力学特征的认识,同时也对判定当地未来一段时间内的地震活动趋势提供了重要参考。首先搜集整理了震源附近的26条余震震源机制,利用网格搜索法反演得到震中附近的应力场,发现该地区主压应力方向为157.36°,倾伏角为1.15°,主张应力方向为66.56°,倾伏角为34.98°,与该地所处的帕米尔高原陆内俯冲形成近东西向断裂的右旋走滑兼有逆冲的背景相一致;然后利用389条余震精定位数据,结合高斯-牛顿算法和模拟退火算法拟合得到发震断层面的走向为103.64°、倾角为65.65°,这与木吉右旋走滑断裂的几何特征基本重合;将所求应力场投影到断层上,得到滑动角为152.77°,该地震表现为右旋走滑断层;最后利用本研究获得的区域应力张量模拟得到的该状态下的各种形状断层面的相对应力分布,发现该地震发生的断层面的相对剪应力接近1,破裂方向与震源区的最优剪切力方向相同,表明...