Fertility assumptions for the 2002-based national population projections

One of the key components of national population projections is the assumed level of fertility, which determines the number of future births in the projections. Assumptions are made in terms of the average number of children women will have over their lifetime. For the 2002-based projections this average is assumed to ultimately be 1.75 for England and for Wales, 1.60 for Scotland, and 1.80 for Northern Ireland, leading to a United Kingdom assumption of 1.74. This article explains how these overall assumptions, which are the same as assumed in the 2000-based and interim 2001-based projections, are derived. It also explains why these levels are higher than current 'period' indicators of fertility. Finally, information on more detailed age specific fertility rates, and implications for family size distributions, is given.     

Assumptions for the 2000-based national population projections

This article summarises the long-term assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration which will underlie the forthcoming 2000-based national population projections. Compared with the current (1998-based) projections, the new projections will assume lower levels of fertility, but higher levels of inward net migration. There will be relatively little change to mortality assumptions. Results of the new projections will be available on 15 November 2001.     

1998-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 1998-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.2 million in 1998 to over 63.5 million by 2021. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2036 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 36.9 years in 1998 to nearly 42 years by 2021. In 1998, there were 1.4 million (13 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of pensionable age. However, by 2008, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Interim 2003-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 2003-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, and using essentially the same underlying assumptions as for the previous 2002-based projections, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.6 million in 2003, passing 60 million during 2005, to reach 65.7 million by 2031. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2050 at nearly 67 million and then very gradually start to fall. The population will become older with the median age expected to rise from 38.4 years in 2003 to 43.3 years by 2031. In 2003, there were around 700 thousand (six per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, from 2007, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

2000-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

The 2000-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary at the request of the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.8 million in 2000 to nearly 65 million by 2025. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak at nearly 66 million around 2040 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 37.4 years in 2000 to 42.4 years by 2025. In 2000, there were 1.3 million (12 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, by 2007, the population of state pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.     

Modelling student age-groups in the subnational population projections for England: an investigation into potential improvements

This article describes research aimed at improving modeling of student age-groups in the ONS subnational population projections for England. A number of data-sources were investigated, and the research focused on Higher Education Statistics Agency data. Although the coverage of HESA data is not sufficient to enable student populations to be projected separately, the data have been used to devise an adjustment method for the student-age population. Both the data and method will be monitored and, if appropriate, used in future projections.     

A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales

We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is introduced, including autoregressive (AR) and stochastic volatility (SV) models. These models are then fitted to a historical time series of data from 1841 to 2007 and used to predict future population totals to 2033. These results are compared to the most recent projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. Sensitivity analyses are then performed to test the effect of changes in the prior uncertainty for a single parameter. Finally, in-sample forecasts are compared with actual population and previous official projections. The article ends with some conclusions and recommendations for future work.     

The new subnational population projections model: methodology and projection scenarios

This article describes the most recent process of projecting population at the subnational level in England. It briefly explains the reasons why projecting population at the subnational level is important, describes the model and how it was used to produce the latest set of long-term subnational population projections in England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in 1998. The article then discusses how the model may be applied to answer various 'what-if' questions about future population.     

The changing demographic picture of the UK: national statistician's annual article on the population

The population of the UK is currently growing at its fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing by two and a half per cent between mid-2001 and mid-2006. While life expectancy continues to increase, fertility rates have also been increasing in the last five years and are currently at their highest level since 1980. In addition, international migration has led to the UK population growing by an average of 500 people per day over the last five years. The population is also becoming increasingly diverse and mobile, and these factors make it increasingly challenging to measure population change accurately. This is the first of a series of annual reports on the population of the UK; these reports will provide an overview of the latest statistics on the population and will also focus on one specific topic - for this report the topic is fertility and, in particular, the impact of migration on fertility, but different topics will be covered in future years. The reports will also highlight the key strands of work being taken forward within the National Statistics Centre for Demography in order to improve UK population statistics. More detailed information on the populations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are available in the annual demographic reports produced by the respective devolved administrations.'     

基于波动-均衡的员工工作行为定性模拟

为模拟员工工作行为，给企业管理者提供决蓑依据，提出波动-均衡规律：员工工作行为变化是一种受社会场引力和费用引力吸引的波动-均衡过程。根据该规律，对变量进行分类和表述，用因果关系图描述变量之间作用关系；用BP神经网络衡量社会场及费用引力；根据波动现象，设计状态变量的转换规则、过滤原理和模拟步骤。在示例应用中组合了不同环境和管理措施的实验方案，模拟结果表明，该方法能够正确地描述和预测员工工作行为的变化过程。     

非饱和条件下802.11无线网络的精确分析模型

对无线网络中节点队列间的耦合性及其带来的影响进行了研究,并首次将其应用于非饱和条件下DCF分析模型的建立.建立了非饱和条件下的服务时间模型并结合M/G/1排队模型分析了网络的时延与吞吐量.仿真实验证明了队列间的耦合性在非饱和条件下给网络带来的影响.通过仿真实验结果与数值分析结果的对比,验证了分析模型的准确性.     

土壤肥力综合评价研究进展

土壤肥力是土壤诸多基本特性的综合反映，在评价土壤肥力时不能只着眼于个别的肥力因素，需从整体的观点出发，需要评价土壤肥力的综合指标，这个指标既是定性的又是定量的，即土壤肥力的数值化综合评价。详细介绍土壤肥力综合评价的主要研究内容及进展，同时指出其中存在的问题。参27。     

长期施肥对农田黑土酶活性及土壤肥力的影响

利用29a的长期定位试验,对不同的施肥方式下农田黑土酶活性及肥力进行了研究,探讨长期施肥对土壤酶活性及与土壤肥力的影响。结果表明,化肥与有机肥配合施用能明显提高土壤有机质、全氮、全磷、碱解氮、有效磷含量,增强土壤脲酶、磷酸酶、转化酶、过氧化氢酶、脱氢酶活性。相关分析结果显示,土壤脲酶、磷酸酶、转化酶、过氧化氢酶活性与有机质、全氮、全磷、有效磷、碱解氮呈显著正相关。土壤脲酶、磷酸酶、转化酶、过氧化氢酶综合活性可以反应长期施肥后农田黑土质量的变化趋势。     

Rebasing the annual mid-year population estimates for England and Wales

The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.     

基于SMP2的导弹攻防仿真想定编辑系统研究

简要介绍了仿真模型可移植性标准(Simulation Model Portability Standard,SMP)及依此进行的导弹攻防对抗仿真总体设计,分析了各分系统间的功能关系;着重讨论了想定编辑分系统的作用,指出了对它的功能需求;最终设计并实现了该系统.该系统能够构建合理的战场地理环境、生成作战模型实例、完成实例配置和装配、自动建立实例间的链接关系,还支持表现属性设定和模型实例入口点设置.该系统可以有效支持基于SMP2标准构架下的导弹攻防对抗仿真系统的总体运行.     

An international comparative study on the use of the Cohort Component Method for estimating national populations

This comparative study explores the use of the Cohort Component Method (CCM) to produce national level population estimates. This method is used annually to calculate mid-year population estimates for England and Wales by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Initially the article considers recent population change in England and Wales, with particular emphasis on the growing importance and challenges faced by migration estimation. Comparisons are then made between how population estimates are produced in England and Wales and other countries, with a particular focus on differences in the way the CCM is applied. Recent changes in methods used to estimate population are then reviewed along with a discussion of alternative approaches such as those described in academic literature.     

Covering all bases: early thoughts for population bases for the 2011 Census

This article discusses early thinking on the options for the population bases to be used in the 2011 Census. It describes some of the work being conducted to enable a decision about bases to be reached, including historic and international reviews of censuses. It also discusses the implications that our rapidly changing society has for census planning.     

Estimates of the population by ethnic group for areas within England

This article describes, and provides some initial analysis of, the experimental population estimates by ethnic group for areas within England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in January 2006. The article considers growth and the population structure of each of the ethnic groups identified in the 2001 Census; subnational patterns of change; population turnover; and measures of diversity and segregation, and also provides a comparison of the estimates and corresponding sample-based estimates from the Labour Force Survey.