Linear combination of forecasts with an intercept: A bayesian approach

The standard approach to combining n expert forecasts involves taking a weighted average. Granger and Ramanathan proposed introducing an intercept term and unnormalized weights. This paper deduces their proposal from Bayesian principles. We find that their formula is equivalent to taking a weighted average of the n expert forecasts plus the decision-maker's prior forecast.     

Cone mosaic in a teleost retina: No difference between light and dark adapted states

Summary The mosaic arrangement of retinal cones in the eye of the African cichlid fish,Haplochromis burtoni, is the same in both light and dark adapted states. This is in contrast to Kunz' claim² that the retinal mosaic pattern changes from a square to a row type during dark adaptation, in the guppy (Poecelia reticulata). Kunz' histological procedure may account for this difference in results.Acknowledgments. This work was supported by grants from the Whitehall Foundation and NIH EY02284. I thank L. Shelton for expert histological assistance.     

Communicating junctions between pillar cells in the gills of the atlantic hagfish,Myxine glutinosa

Summary In the respiratory lamellae of the gills of the atlantic hagfish,Myxine glutinosa, pillar cells are coupled by communicating junctions. It is suggested that these cells behave like a functional syncytium.Supported by the DFG, SFB 146. The authors are indebted to Drs F. Walvig and H. Stolte for kindly providing the hagfish. The expert technical assistance of G. Voss-Wermbter, Dipl.-Ing., and H. Heidrich is gratefully acknowledged.     

Effect of heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) produced byEscherichia coli on in vitro cell proliferation

Summary Filtrates fromE. coli H10407 cultures, giving a positive response for heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) in the Y-1 cell test, show an inhibitory activity both on³H-thymidine uptake by Ehrlich ascites cells and on granulocytic-macrophagic precursors (CFU-C) in murine bone marrow.Acknowledgments. We gratefully acknowledge the expert technical assistance of L. Basso and A. Gerosa of Department of Pathology, Hospital of Desio.     

Antibiotics from higher plants.Thalictrum rugosum. Thalrugosamine,a newBisbenzylisoquinoline alkaloid active vsMycobacterium smegmatis

Zusammenfassung Charakterisierung und Strukturaufklärung eines neuen Alkaloides, Thalrugosamin ausThalictrum rugosum.

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Acknowledgment. The authors are indebted to the Warren-Teed Division of Rohm and Haas and the NIH (No. AI 09846) for financial support,Rodger White (Warren-Teed) andFrank W. Denison (Abbott Laboratories) for biological data andRueyping Leu for expert technical assistance.     

The presence of β-phenylethylamine,p-tyramine,m-tyramine and tryptamine in ganglia and foot muscle of the garden snail (Helix aspersa)

Summary The concentrations of -phenylethylamine,p-tyramine,m-tyramine,m-octopamine and tryptamine in the ganglia or foot muscle ofHelix aspersa range from <0.6 to 11 ng/g.p-Octopamine levels are higher in ganglia (327 ng/g) than in foot muscle (4.1 ng/g). Dopamine and 5-hydroxytryptamine range from 840 to 2710 ng/g while their acid metabolites, 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid, 3-methoxy-4-hydroxyphenylacetic acid and 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid range from <20 to 130 ng/g.Acknowledgments. We thank Dr A.A. Boulton for helpful discus sion, Dr D.A. Durden for supervising the mass spectrometric analyses, Dr B.A. Davis for the synthesis of the deuterated standards, G.H. Wheatley, E.P. Zarycki and M. Mizuno for expert technical assistance, and Saskatchewan Health and the MRC of Canada for providing financial support.     

The size distribution ofTetrahymena in relation to its position in the cell cycle

Summary Tetrahymena size distribution during the cell cycle was analyzed by means of radioautography with the aid of a sonic-digitizer, and a computer. The study demonstrates that as the organism ages and passes through the various cell cycle phases the volume distribution of the organisms in each phase remains lognormal.Acknowledgments. This work was supported by a research grant from Gtiftung Volkswagenwerk No. 112273 toA. Ron. The authors wish to acknowledge the technical help of Mrs.O. Horovitz and MissS. Urieli, as well as the expert photomicrography of Mrs.E. Salomon.     

Radioimmunoassay of an invertebrate peptide hormone — the crustacean neurosecretory hyperglycemic hormone

Summary Antibodies against hyperglycemic hormone (CHH) ofCarcinus were raised in rabbits by injection of extract from sinus glands which contain high concentrations of CHH. The antiserum neutralizes the biological activity of CHH and binds¹²⁵J-CHH. A RIA for CHH was established and was used to measure the hormone content of sinus glands.Dedicated to Prof. M. Gersch, Jena, on the occasion of his 70th birthday.This study was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Ke 206/2).We thank S. Grabig. E. schmid and B. Reichwein for expert technical assistance, and Dr D. Breitig and G. Kegel for critical discussions.     

Pierre-Joseph Macquer an Eighteenth-Century Artisanal-Scientific Expert

Summary

Pierre-Joseph Macquer (1718–1784) is well known as one of the major chemists in the eighteenth century as a theoretician and a teacher. He is also known for his works on dyeing. This paper presents a new face of Macquer. He proposed a theory on mordants in dyeing as early as 1775. Besides his activity at the Académie des sciences, he played an important role in Government as the commissioner of dyeing from 1766 where he established close links with artisan inventors. Académicien chimiste at the royal Manufactory of Sèvres from 1757, he was also the inventor of French porcelain. His notebooks show his organization, method, courage, passion and obstinacy in the search for the paste for hard porcelain. He also proposed an interpretation of its formation. Macquer was both a theoretician and a practical expert in dyeing as well as in porcelain making. He managed to bridge the gap between science and art.     

The effects of diltiazem onPeriplaneta americana

Summary The effects of the calcium antagonist diltiazem on nerve and muscle in the cockroachPeriplaneta americana were examined. Diltiazem was observed to inhibit myogenic and glutamate-induced contractions of the visceral muscle while having either a potentiating, an inhibiting or a biphasic effect against proctolin-induced contractions. Against the isolated nervous system, diltiazem induced an increase in spontaneous discharge activity, followed by nerve block. Injection of diltiazem into cockroaches produced behavioral and toxic effects.Acknowledgments. The expert technical assistance of Miss Susan Auffarth is gratefully acknowledged. Bioresmethrin was provided by Dr. G.J.P. Singh. We would like to thank Nordic Laboratories for the gift of diltiazem.     

Expert judgments of political riskiness

Professional analysts' judgments of the political riskiness of 49 focal countries for the period 1983-1985 were studied. Data were collected on nine predictor variables; each was significantly correlated at the 0.01 level with ratings of political riskiness. The highest correlation was with infant mortality and life expectancy; either accounted for roughly 50% of the variance in ratings. Different variables were better predictors of political risk within different geographic regions. A factor analysis suggested the presence of three underlying factors. The predictor variable with the highest loading was chosen to represent each of the three factors. These were: exchange rate differential; estimated inflation rate; and infant mortality rate. Approximately 75% of the variance in ratings could be accounted for on the basis of a linear combination of the three predictor variables. These three variables were capable of good prediction even for various subsets of countries based on geographic region or other criteria. Using all nine variables as predictors resulted in only marginal improvement. A cluster analysis revealed little difference among clusters of judges. Ratings by undergraduate students closely paralled those of professional analysts. As in previous studies of expert predictions and forecasts, claims of expertise in political risk analysis were better supported by command of factual knowledge than by differentially superior predictive ability.     

The Hybrid Expert in the ‘Bergstaat’: Anton von Ruprecht as a Professor of Chemistry and Mining and as a Mining Official, 1779–1814

Summary

In the course of the 18th century a new type of scientifically educated functional elites developed, who were trained to administer mines. The educational project that led to the formation of a corps of mining engineers was part of a programme of administrative and economic reforms that led to a new configuration of bonds between state, economy and science. At the same time the status of this new group of experts was predicated substantially by the new emerging corpora of the scientific, technological and cameralist knowledge of the period between 1760 and 1800. The aim of this paper is to discuss this group using the example of a leading expert in the context of the mining and metallurgy of this period. Anton von Ruprecht (1748–1814) was strongly grounded in the social and epistemic context of the Habsburg mining bureaucracy, which employed his scientific and technical savoir faire to serve their mercantile goals in several areas of mining expertise.     

Trust in expert testimony: Eddington's 1919 eclipse expedition and the British response to general relativity

The 1919 British astronomical expedition led by Arthur Stanley Eddington to observe the deflection of starlight by the sun, as predicted by Einstein's relativistic theory of gravitation, is a fascinating example of the importance of expert testimony in the social transmission of scientific knowledge. While Popper lauded the expedition as science at its best, accounts by Earman and Glymour, Collins and Pinch, and Waller are more critical of Eddington's work. Here I revisit the eclipse expedition to dispute the characterization of the British response to general relativity as the blind acceptance of a partisan's pro-relativity claims by colleagues incapable of criticism. Many factors served to make Eddington the trusted British expert on relativity in 1919, and his experimental results rested on debatable choices of data analysis, choices criticized widely since but apparently not widely by his British contemporaries. By attending to how and to whom Eddington presented his testimony and how and by whom this testimony was received, I suggest, we may recognize as evidentially significant corroborating testimony from those who were expert not in relativity but in observational astronomy. We are reminded that even extraordinary expert testimony is neither offered nor accepted entirely in an epistemic vacuum.     

Modeling expert forecasting knowledge for incorporation into expert systems

The use of continuous multivariate models to represent experts' knowledge of relations among a set of variables is reviewed. Such knowledge models can be incorporated into expert systems, complementing contingent rules, especially when representing experts' knowledge of functional relations among entities in noisy domains. Past work has most commonly involved linear averaging models in static domains, although nonlinear models and dynamic domains are also possible. Detecting errors in continuous multivariate models requires a different approach from detecting errors in collections of if-then rules. Methods for eliciting expert knowledge include modeling judgments made in real or hypothetical situations and using expert's self-insight directly to assist in construction of the model. Procedures for managing each of these methods have been computerized and could be included as elicitation tools in expert system building environments.     

Scientists as experts: A distinct role?

The role of scientists as experts is crucial to public policymaking. However, the expert role is contested and unsettled in both public and scholarly discourse. In this paper, I provide a systematic account of the role of scientists as experts in policymaking by examining whether there are any normatively relevant differences between this role and the role of scientists as researchers. Two different interpretations can be given of how the two roles relate to each other. The separability view states that there is a normatively relevant difference between the two roles, whereas the inseparability view denies that there is such a difference. Based on a systematic analysis of the central aspects of the role of scientists as experts – that is, its aim, context, mode of output, and standards, I propose a moderate version of the separability view. Whereas the aim of scientific research is typically to produce new knowledge through the use of scientific method for evaluation and dissemination in internal settings, the aim of the expert is to provide policymakers and the public with relevant and applicable knowledge that can premise political reasoning and deliberation.     

Forecasting Elections

In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. In line with existing literature, we bias‐correct opinion polls. We consider accuracy, bias and precision over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to provide the most precise forecasts and are similar in terms of bias to opinion polls. We find that our statistical model struggles to provide competitive forecasts, while expert opinion appears to be of value. Finally we note that the forecast horizon matters; whereas prediction market forecasts tend to improve the nearer an election is, opinion polls appear to perform worse, while expert opinion performs consistently throughout. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bringing tacit knowledge back to contributory and interactional expertise: A reply to Goddiksen

We analyse a recent paper by Goddiksen (2014) where the author raises questions about the relationship between authorship, attribution and Collins & Evans' concept of contributory and interactional expertise. We then highlight recent empirical work in the sociology of climate change science that has made similar points in order to clarify how authorship, division of labour and contribution are handled in real scientific settings. Despite this, Goddiksen's critique of both contributory and interactional expertise is ultimately ineffective because it rests on a misguided attempt to de-socialise these concepts. We conclude by stressing the importance of collective tacit knowledge acquisition through immersion as a critical step in becoming a full-blown contributory or interactional expert.     

Application of chemicals in early chick embryos in ovo: A precaution

Summary A passive diffusion method is described and is compared with other methods for the application of chemicals in early chick embryos in ovo.Acknowledgments. We thank Mrs Irene Panagopoulou for expert technical assistance.     

Electron microscope and optical diffraction studies on glycerol-extracted insect flight muscle fibres relaxed by pyrophosphate

Zusammenfassung Elektronenmikroskopische Aufnahmen von einfacher Filament-Lagen Mg-Pyrophosphaterschlaffter Fasern der dorsolongitudinalen Flugmuskulatur vonLethocerus spec. gleichen weitgehend dem Bild ATP-erschlaffter Muskeln. Optische Transformationen scheinen dagegen die Charakteristika von ATP-erschlafften Fasern und solchen, die sich im Rigor mortis befinden, zu kombinieren. Die Überführung der Fasern aus einer Mg-Pyrophosphat- in eine Rigor-Lösung stellte das Rigor-Muster wieder her.

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Supported by a short term fellowship of the EMBO to one of us (G.B.).

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Acknowledgment. We are greatly indebted to Dr.Louise N. Johnson, P. Eagle andL. J. Stumpp, Oxford, Dept. of Zoology, for their help with the optical diffraction measurements, to Mrs.Hiltrud Gülker for her expert technical assistance and to Prof.Pringle and Dr.R. T. Tregear for their hospitality and many helpful discussions and criticism.