中国环保产业高质量发展的异质性政策驱动研究

为了剖析环保产业高质量发展的政策驱动机制,将环保产业高质量发展的内涵具化为5个维度,同时构造环保产业高质量发展的系统动力学模型,通过4种政策情景仿真考察不同政策工具对环保产业高质量发展各维度的影响.结果 表明:政策工具对环保产业高质量发展的5个维度指标存在较为显著的目标差异性和时效差异性,其中税收政策对产出的激励效果最...     

A Critical Assessment of Project Management Methods with Respect to Electronic Government Implementation Challenges

In taking forward both the Government Modernization and the Civil Service Reform agendas, renewed emphasis is being placed on project management approaches and techniques for achieving objectives more effectively and efficiently. After elaborating on specific electronic government project implementation challenges and giving an overview of state-of-the-art project management approaches, the paper examines the weaknesses of three commonly used methods in the light of the e-Government project challenges. The analysis identifies gaps in the methods, contributing to a better understanding of the factors that lead to success or failure. The resolution of such methodological limitations could lead to the enhancement of project management methods when applied to future projects.     

环境政策工具比较: 基于企业减排的视角

论文采用企业最优规划模型, 通过比较研究方法分析了污染税、 可交易污染许可、污染排放标准和减排补贴对企业减排行为的影响、对企业技术更新的激励效果、对污染排放总量的控制和政策实施成本. 研究表明: 减排的主要影响因素是减排的技术能力和环境政策的严厉程度; 污染谎报问题的主要影响因素是环境政策的严厉程度和政府监管力度,而与减排的技术能力无关; 在技术更新的激励效果方面, 完全遵守的污染排放标准是最优的、其次是不完全遵守的污染排放标准、再次是污染税和减排补贴、可交易污染许可效果最差; 在污染排放总量控制方面, 若企业存在技术改进可能, 污染税、减排补贴和污染排放标准可以达到相同的政策效果, 可交易污染许可的效果最差, 若企业保持现有技术水平不变, 则污染税、可交易污染许可、减排补贴和污染排放标准可以达到相同的政策效果; 在政策实施成本方面, 污染税、减排补贴和污染排放标准具有相同的实施成本, 可交易污染许可的实施成本最低.     

资源、环境与产业转型的复合生态管理

中国环境污染与生态破坏问题的症结在于管理问题 ,其实质是资源代谢在时间、空间尺度上的滞留或耗竭 ,系统耦合在结构、功能关系上的破碎和板结 ,社会行为在经济和生态管理上的冲突和失调 .生态管理科学旨在运用系统工程的手段和生态学原理去探讨这类复合生态系统的动力学机制和控制论方法 ,协调人与自然、经济与环境、局部与整体间在时间、空间、数量、结构、序理间的系统耦合关系 ,使资源得以高效利用 ,人与自然高度和谐 ,环境经济持续发展 .为解决国家、地区及部门重大生态环境问题提供决策支持、科学依据和管理方法 .复合生态系统管理的热点是生态资产、生态健康和生态服务功能管理 .应用生态管理学包括产业生态管理 ,城镇生态管理和区域生态管理 .综述了当前国内外区域生命支持系统管理和产业转型的生态管理方法 ,如生命周期分析、生态足迹分析等 .     

PERSPECTIVES ON URBAN WATER INFRASTRUCTURE IN CHINA FOR THE 21^ST C0ENTURY： SDMUWEIC MODEL

Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluatefuture dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents thebasic structure and characteristics of the model, focusing on water infrastructure‘s dynamicrelationships with population increase, economic development, water resources shortage and waterconservation practices. Secondly, model veracity and robustness tests based on behavior reproductionand uncertainty analyses are illustrated. Thirdly, based on the model, future pattems of China‘s urbanwater infrastructure investment requirements are simulated, and effectiveness of two different policyscenarios are evaluated. Finally, conclusion,; and policy implications are drawn, allowing insights intoChina‘s sustainable water infrastructure policies and managements.     

New product design strategies with subsidy policies

Industrial development can enrich people’s lives,but it also causes environmental pollution,which is an area of significant concern among governments,consumers,and companies.Governments formulate some environmental policies,which motivate industry by providing greater incentives for green product development.Consumers are classified into two groups - ordinary and green market segments - according to their environmental awareness and attitudes.In this regard,companies need to reconsider their primary product design strategies.By investigating the interactions among customers’ preferences,firms’ product strategies,and government subsidy policies,this paper presents a theoretical model for new product design strategies.After detailed theoretical analysis of such strategies,we found that to motivate firms to choose environmentally friendly product design strategies, governments should inaugurate effective subsidy policies.After simultaneously considering environmental issues and firms’ benefits,we designed a subsidy policy.With such a policy,firms can change their primary product design strategies and develop both green and ordinary products,thereby increasing the firms’ profits and improving the total environmental quality.     

Practicality, Positionality, and Emancipation: Reflections on Participatory Action Research with a Watershed Partnership

In the last few decades, there has been a trend towards increased stakeholder and public participation in natural resource management in North America. To a certain extent, the rationale for this trend is found in the complexity and uncertainty of environmental issues, which confront us with the coexistance of multiple legitimate values and perspectives in society. Recognizing this “epistemological plurality” has important implications for both policy and science. In this paper, I critically reflect on my experiences as a doctoral student engaged in participatory action research (PAR) with a watershed partnership in Ontario, Canada. In providing this biographical account, I seek to make a contribution to ongoing discussions regarding the nature, challenges and benefits of this methodological approach for academic research, as well as to emerging debates on PAR in the context of environmental governance and “post-normal” approaches to natural resource management.

投影寻踪方法在工程环境影响评价中的应用

简要介绍投影寻踪方法 ,并将其用于水电工程的环境影响评价 .应用表明 ,新的评价方法能利用一个综合反映多因素之间复杂关系的特征指标给出相应的评价结果 ,且根据计算结果还可以分析工程建设中严重影响环境质量的主要因素 ,为工程环境影响评价提供了一种计算过程简单、直观的新方法 .     

Questions and Feasible Conditions of Environmental Quality and Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment

In recent years,methods of fuzzy comprehensive assessment (FCA)have been widelyapplied in environmental quality comprehensive assessment(EQCA)without conditions.A lot ofpractised these have been published.published.They imitate each other and have a great influence.Inthis paper,however,opposite examples are given and we further prove that using environmentalquality fuzzy comprehensive assessment method (EQFCAM)without conditions will lead to theabsolutely non-scientific result.Two basic rules that FCA should adhere to are put forward inthis paper.They should be the foundation of EQCA..The sufficient and necessary condition thatshould meet the fundamental rules in methods of FCA will also be given.     

Systemic Educational Approaches to Environmental Issues: The Contribution of Ecological Art

System thinkers and practitioners are trying to help society understand better the interconnectedness between issues that we previously tended to explore in isolation. Because of this, they have an important role to play in dealing with environmental issues. Indeed, the need to tackle those in holistic ways is now recognised and systems approaches are now complementing academic approaches such as ecological economics (Neumayer E (ed) (2003) Online encyclopaedia of ecological economics. International Society for Ecological Economics; Faber M, Manstetten R, Proops J (1996) Ecological economics. Concepts and methods. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham), which analyse ecological-human interactions. This paper explores how new forms of ‘environmental education’ could constitute particularly relevant vehicles for systems thinking and practice by building on messages and practices initiated in ecological art. Ecological art, it argues, has provided, for centuries, a practical form of holistic, interdisciplinary, problem-solving environmental management model—a particularly insightful illustration of how ‘systems thinking and practice’ can be used to deal with environmental problems. The paper suggests that art-based pedagogic forms could help put sustainability into practice by providing an educational tool that respects the systemicity of environmental issues and by encouraging systemic learning processes that are based on improved communication, sharing of perspectives, and stakeholders’ empowerment through participation and experience.

Project management: Recent developments and research opportunities

This paper studies the business process known as project management. This process has exhibited a remarkable growth in business interest over the last 15 years, as demonstrated by a 1000% increase in membership in the Project Management Institute since 1996. This growth is largely attributable to the emergence of many new diverse business applications that can be successfully managed as projects. The new applications for project management include IT implementations, research and development, new product and service development, corporate change management, and software development. The characteristics of modern projects are typically very different from those of traditional projects such as construction and engineering, which necessitates the development of new project management techniques. We discuss these recent practical developments. The history of project management methodology is reviewed, from CPM and PERT to the influential modern directions of critical chain project management and agile methods. We identify one important application area for future methodological change as new product and service development. A list of specific research topics within project management is discussed. The conclusions suggest the existence of significant research opportunities within project management.     

Action Research: Its Foundations in Open Systems Thinking and Relationship to the Scientific Method

This paper considers those interpretations of action research that can be traced to Kurt Lewin at the Research Center for Group Dynamics at the University of Michigan, and the work in social ecology by Emery and Trist at the Tavistock Institute. It locates the logical basis of these interpretations in the philosophy of pragmatism, particularly as it relates to Peirce’s inferential logic and inquiry system. Drawing on this argument, and on the significant developments in approaches to systemic thinking over the past 40–50 years, a normative set of criteria is established for action research. The paper concludes that both positivist science (which relates to closed systems thinking) and action research (which relates to open systems thinking) are essential to any complete scientific approach.     

政策协同：节能减排政策研究的新视角

随着政策运行环境复杂性、不确定性和无序性的加剧,深入研究我国节能减排政策的协同问题显得尤为迫切. 在概述我国节能减排政策出台情况的基础上,本文对我国节能减排政策以及政策协同研究的主要方面进行了梳理,发现我国节能减排政策的研究主要集中于分析其不足和实施困境、评估其效果、分析不同政策情景的节能减排潜力和成本、探寻最优的政策途径、 分析政策福利以及进行国际比较与借鉴等方面,而对于我国节能减排政策的协同问题关注较少;政策协同的研究主要聚焦于讨论其现状、必要性、协同效果和实现机制等. 借鉴政策协同的已有研究成果,本文进一步从我国节能减排政策协同现状及效果评估、国外协同模式对我国的启示和借鉴、最优协同方式探寻、国际协同模式和最佳协同程度分析、 避免协同失败和负效应的途径探索、非节能减排政策与节能减排政策间协同分析、协同机制构建等七个方面讨论了我国节能减排政策协同的后续研究方向.     

基于演化博弈的地方政府环境规制策略分析

针对我国环境规制政策的执行,从演化博弈论的研究视角探讨了地方政府、排污企业以及中央政府的决策演化过程,建立了地方政府与排污企业、地方政府与中央政府的演化博弈模型,根据复制动态方程得到了参与者的行为演化规律和行为演化稳定策略,分析了地方政府环境规制策略的影响因素.研究结果表明,地方政府政绩考核体系中环境质量指标的权重系数与经济发展指标的权重系数、环境规制执行成本、中央政府对地方政府的处罚额、排污收费费率、排污企业的治污成本与污染物削减量,都会对地方政府的环境规制策略产生影响.最后,为促进地方政府环境规制的严格执行提出了政策建议.     

流体真实性仿真的国内外研究进展

介绍近二十年来流体真实性仿真的研究进展,分别从底层开发和基于平台开发两个方面阐述了目前流体真实性仿真主要研究方法。从Navier-Strokes和Lattice Boltzmann method(LBM)两个方面介绍了基于底层开发的流体模拟算法及其实现方式;总结了基于平台开发的流体真实性模拟主流工具及其实现效果。在对各种方法进行分析对比的基础上,对流体真实性仿真的研究方式与思路进行了探讨,指出了流-体真实性仿真的研究热点与发展趋势。     

智能化时代国防科技体系工程初探

随着智能化时代的到来,国防科技的研究与发展面临新的机遇与挑战。本文从体系视角出发,对智能化时代国防科技体系工程开展了初步的探索。首先,介绍了智能化时代国防科技体系工程的相关概念,辨析了其内涵,明确了其研究范畴,构建了国防科技体系工程的研究框架。其次,系统总结了国防科技体系工程研究重点关注的3个科学问题,分别是建模问题、评估问题及预测问题,并对解决这3大类问题的相关理论方法和技术手段进行了梳理介绍。最后,对国防科技大学复杂系统与体系工程团队自主研发的国防科技体系工程软件支撑工具集进行了简要介绍。通过研究与实践,为国防科技的发展战略制定、规划计划、项目管理等实际工作提供了理论、方法和技术支撑,促进了科技创新能力提升和战斗力生成。     

中国节能减排系统动力学模型及政策优化仿真

为考察并比较不同节能减排政策对能源消耗和污染物排放的影响作用,从政府、经济、人口、科技、能源和环境等系统要素出发,构建了节能减排系统动力学模型;并以福建省为例,确定模型参数及主要方程,在各个子系统上分别赋予税收、金融、财政、环保、产业和科技等政策调控因子,动态仿真不同工具的实施效果.研究结果表明:在设定的情景及参数下,政策的调整与实施往往能够促进节能减排,但不能盲目改变政策的实施力度.不同政策其节能减排效果不同,税收、环保和产业政策对节能减排产生的效果最为明显,其中环保政策下环境相对污染度虽降幅不及税收政策,但主要污染物的前端治污效果凸显;而金融、财政和科技政策的节能减排效果较为微弱.     

Systemic solutions for systemic problems

The systems sciences and cybernetics emerged in the years after World War II. These fields created many new approaches to engineering and management and contributed new ideas to existing academic fields. The new fields also identified similar concepts across a range of fields and began to create a general theory of systems. In addition the systems sciences created a variety of methods for managing complex systems, for example logistics, operations research and computer simulations. In the 1970s there was concern about population and environment balance. Currently there is increasing concern with governance, since the rate of presentation of problems seems to be greater than the ability of our institutions to manage them. This paper will discuss the history of systems science and cybernetics, the questions formulated and the solutions proposed, the difficulties encountered in finding a home within contemporary universities and some exciting lines of research now underway.     

环境规制政策与公共健康——基于环境污染的中介效应检验

为了探究环境规制政策对于环境污染及公共健康的影响,本文基于我国1978至2013年颁布的976条环境规制政策,利用从政策属性力度、政策内容力度两个维度对我国环境规制政策进行量化的数据,构建了针对环境规制政策效果的计量模型,通过将中介效应检验方法引入环境健康经济学分析,检验了环境污染对环境规制政策与公共健康的中介效应.研究结果表明:环境规制政策对公共健康具有促进作用;我国总体的环境规制政策对于防治环境污染产生了一定程度的积极效果;环境规制政策通过对环境污染显著的部分中介效应进而对公共健康产生了促进作用.本研究基于总体环境规制政策文献量化角度考察的"政策-环境-健康"三维动态关系结果,阐明了环境规制政策、环境污染以及公共健康三者的影响传输路径,对于有效评估环境规制政策效果,保障环境质量以及公共健康的可持续提升具有理论借鉴价值.     

基于游客环境属性意愿支付的游憩承载力评价研究

游憩承载力是衡量国家森林公园利用限度的一个重要指标.然而,游憩承载力的内涵和度量方法在学术界尚未形成一个统一的认知.已有的研究多以社会承载力和工程方法测算单位时间内景区允许进入游客的数量.这种做法虽然在管理上具有一定的可操作性,但却不能准确反映承载力概念的科学内涵.文章从旅游效用最大化视角出发,构建基于景区环境属性水平的游憩承载力理论框架,并估计各种属性的承载力阈值.研究过程运用选择实验法进行问卷设计和条件logit模型进行参数估计.模型结果表明,植被覆盖率承载力阈值为78%,垃圾数量承载力阈值为3件/20 m,游客密度承载力阈值为14人/200 m~2,水的能见度承载力阈值为1.45 m.