Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

The global climate has been altered by the anthro- pogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emis- sions. It is pointed out in the Third Assessments Report (TAR)[1] of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 that over the 20th centur…     

Decadal change of the East Asian summer monsoon and its related surface temperature in Asia-Pacific during 1880–2004

The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and its related change of surface temperature in the past century were not clearly ad- dressed due to absence of atmospheric reanalysis data before 1948. On the benchmark of station-observed sea level pressure （SLP） in China, we utilized multiple SLP datasets and evaluated their qualities in measuring the SLP-based EASM index （EASMI）. It is found that the EASMI based on the SLP of the Hadley center version 2 （HadSLP2） has shown the best performance on the inter- annual and decadal time scales. Instead of showing a linear weakening trend pointed out by the previous study, the EASMI has likely exhibited the decadal variability, characterized by weakened trends during 1880-1906, 1921-1936, and 1960-2004, and with enhanced trends during 1906-1921 and 1936-1960, respectively. Corresponding to the weakened and enhanced periods of EASMI since the 1920s, the surface air temperature （SAT） index （SATI） averaged in eastern China has likely shown a warming and a cooling trend, respectively. However, the decadal abrupt transitions between the two indices do not occur concurrently, which results in a weak correlation between two indices on the decadal time scale. Further analysis indicates that there are four key regions where the SAT is significantly correlated with the EASMI, suggesting the joint impact of surface temperature in Asia-Pacific on the EASM during 1880-2004. In which, the decadal change of SAT near the Lake Baikal plays an important role in the linear trends of the EASM before and after 1960.     

Study on response of ecosystem to the East Asian monsoon in eastern China using LAI data derived from remote sensing information

Based on the leaf area index (LAI) data derived from remote sensing information and eco-climate data, the responses of regional ecosystem variations in seasonal and interannual scales to the East Asian monsoon are studied. It is found that the vegetation ecosystems of eastern China are remarkably correlated with the East Asian monsoon in seasonal and interannual scales. In the seasonal timescale, the obvious variations of the vegetation ecosystems occur with the development of the East Asian monsoon from the south in the spring to the north in the autumn. In the interannual scale, high LAI appears in the strong East Asian monsoon year, whereas low LAI is related to the weak East Asian monsoon year. These further lead to the characteristic of "monsoon-driven ecosystem" in the eastern China monsoon region, which can be revealed by LAI.     

Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948-2002 as derived from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research, it is revealed that East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are recorded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 20th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models＇ outputs under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Center and the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro- nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 21st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 20th century.     

Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

The responses of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） to large volcanic eruptions were analyzed using a millennial simulation with the FGOALS-gl climate system model. The model was driven by both natural （solar irradiance, volcanic eruptions） and anthro- pogenic （greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols） forcing agents. The results showed cooling anomalies after large volcanic eruptions almost on a global scale. The cooling over the continental region is stronger than that over the ocean. The precipitation generally decreases in the tropical and subtropical regions in the first summer after large volcanic eruptions. Cooling with amplitudes up to -0.3 ℃ is seen over eastern China in the first summer after large volcanic eruptions. The East Asian continent is dominated by northeasterly wind anomalies and the corresponding summer rainfall exhibits a coherent reduction over the whole of eastern China. An analysis of the surface heat flux suggested the reduction in summer precipitation over eastern China can be attributed to a decrease of moisture vapor over the tropical oceans, and the weakening of the EASM may be attributed to the reduced land-sea thermal contrast after large volcanic eruptions.     

Seasonal cycle of the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and East Asian subtropical monsoon circulation

Based on analysis of the climatic temperature latitudinal deviation on middle troposphere, its seasonal cycle suggests that due to the rapid warming from eastern China continent to the east of Tibetan Plateau and the heating of Tibetan Plateau in spring, seasonal transition of the thermal difference between East Asia continent and West Pacific first takes place in the subtropical region with greatest intensity. On the accompanying low troposphere, the prevailing wind turns from northerly in winter to southerly in summer with the convection precipitation occurring at the same time. This maybe indicates the onset of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon. Consequently, we advice that the seasonal cycle formed by the zonal thermal contrast between Asian continent and West Pacific may be an independent driving force of East Asian subtropical monsoon.     

Anomalous activity of East Asian winter monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTA

The relationship between the anomalous East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) activity and the tropical Pacific SST anomalies has been identified using the results of 40-year integration of the IAP CGCM1 model and 10-year observational data. In the strong EAWM year, the western and central Pacific are dominated by positive SST anomalies while the eastern Pacific is negative ones. In the weak EAWM year, the SSTA pattern is quite different and shows El Nino-like SST anomalies. The strong EAWM activity tends to create extra easterly flow to the east and extra westerly flow to the west of the warm SSTA region over the equatorial western and central Pacific, thus leading to the enhancement of convergence and convection of the flow in this region and favorable to the maintenance and development of such an SSTA pattern. On the other hand, the warm SST anomaly over the western and central Pacific, as a forcing, may lead to a specific pattern of the northern extratropical atmosphere, which is favorable to the strong EAWM activity. The tropical Pacific SSTA pattern related closely to the strong EAWM activity differs significantly from that of the La Nina year.     

ENSO对东亚夏季风和我国夏季降水的影响研究进展

回顾了最近几年我国学者在ENSO对东亚夏季风和我国夏季降水影响方面的研究成果,通过夏季风时降水的影响分析ENSO对夏季降水的作用,结合1997-1998年的ENSO现象,对前人的理论和统计结果进行了讨论,指出除了ENSO发生的时间、区域、强度外,其增长和衰减率在这一问题的研究中也值得关注。     

Asian-Pacific Oscillation index and variation of East Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium

To study the long-term variation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, the Asian-Pacific Oscillation index （IAPO）, representing a zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, is reconstructed over the past millennium. During the Little Ice Age （LIA）, the variability of the reconstructed IAPO is closely linked to dry-wet anomalies in eastern China on the centennial scale. This correlation pattern is consistent with the observation during the current period, which suggests that the reconstructed IAPO may generally represent the centennial-scale variation of the EASM and rainfall anomalies over eastern China during the LIA.     

Inter-decadal variations,causes and future projection of the Asian summer monsoon

The present paper presents a concise summary of our recent studies on the Asian summer monsoon, with highting decadal and inter-decadal scales. The studies on the long-term variations of the Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on the change in the summer precipitation in China are reviewed. Moreover, recent changes in the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in East Asia （including Meiyu precipitation） are discussed. Finally, the future changes of the Asian summer monsoon are also pointed out in this paper.     

Global and China temperature changes associated with the inter-decadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon advances

The modern atmospheric observation and literatural historical drought-flood records were used to extract the inter-decadal signals of dry-wet modes in eastern China and reveal the possible relationship of global and China temperature changes associated with the East Asian summer monsoon advances.A climate pattern of "wet-north and dry-south" in eastern China and cool period in China and globe are associated with the strong summer monsoon that can advance further to the northernmost part in the East Asian monsoon region.On the contrary,a climate pattern of "dry-north and wet-south" in eastern China and a warm period in China and globe are associated with the weaker summer monsoon that only reaches the southern part in the region.An interdecadal oscillation with the timescale about 60 years was found dominating in both the dry-wet mode index series of the East Asian summer monsoon and the global temperature series after the secular climate states and long-term trend over inter-centennial timescales have been removed.     

季风边缘区封闭湖泊近40a来的水位变化分析--以青海湖、岱海为例

利用40 a来的数据资料研究揭示了青海湖、岱海的水位变化及其机制.结果表明:青海湖水位变化主要受气候因素影响,如果未来气候保持现在的状态,湖泊的面积将在2035年前后下降至0.392 5 km2后保持相对稳定;岱海水位变化受人类活动的影响,人类活动的强烈干预改变了湖泊的演化方向,如果将人类活动耗水量还原到湖泊中,岱海水位将逐步上升、湖泊面积逐渐扩大,并在水位1.226 5 km、面积175 km2上稳定维持至2030年左右.     

Interconnections between the Asian monsoon, ENSO, and high northern latitude climate during the Holocene

The International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP), which promotes better understanding of the living environment, was initiated in the early 1990s. IGBP and other programs have uncovered much evi-dence that the Earth system is complex and nonlinear, ex…     

An virtual numerical experiment to understand the impacts of recovering natural vegetation on the summer climate and environmental conditions in East Asia

By applying a regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS), a virtual numerical experiment is implemented to study the impacts of recovering natural vegetation on the regional climate and environmental conditions. The results show that recovering the natural vegetation in large scale could have significant influence on summer climate in East Asia. Not only would it be able to change the surface climate, but also to modify to certain extent the intensity of monsoon circulation. Although this is a virtual experiment at an extremely ideal condition, the implication of the simulating results is that the on-going nation-wide activities to recover the crop land for forest and pasture must be managed according to the local natural climate, hydrological and soil conditions. Only under such a condition, would the recovering of natural vegetation bring about significant climate and environmental benefits at regional scale.     

Dynamic control on grain-size distribution of terrigenous sediments in the western South China Sea: Implication for East Asian monsoon evolution

High-resolution oxygen isotope stratigraphy of Core MD05-2901, which is located off eastern Vietnam in the western South China Sea （SCS）, was established and indicated that the core spans a time period of the past 450 ka. Based on the bulk density, fractional porosity and lithogenic content of the sediments, terrigenous mass accumulation rate （TMAR） was obtained, which is 4.9-6.0 g cm^-2 ka^-1 on average during interglacial stages, higher than that during glacial stages, i.e. 1.9-5.0 g cm^-2 ka^-1, which is different from northern and southern SCS which show higher TMAR in glacial stages. By principle component analysis of grain size distribution of all the samples, two main control factors （F1 and F2） were obtained, which are responsible for about 80% variance of granularity. The contents of grain size population 1.26-2.66 μm% and 10.8-14.3 μm% which are sensible to F1 show high-frequency fluctuation, and correlate well with the summer insolation at 15^o N. They exhibit a distinct cyclicity with frequencies near 23 ka and 13 ka, in contrast to a strong frequency peak near 100 ka obtained in proxies 4.24-7.42 μm% and 30.1-43.7 μm% controlled mainly by F2. The sedimentary character of this part of the SCS was controlled by variations of input flux from two main source areas, namely the southwest and north SCS, which were transported by different circulations of surface current forced by East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon respectively. We believe that the East Asian summer monsoon has fluctuated with high frequency and been forced by changes in solar insolation in low latitude associated with precession and half precession, while ice-volume forcing is probably a primary factor in determining the strength and timing of the East Asian winter monsoon but with less important insolation forcing.     

Community Climate Model 3气候模式在东亚季风区产生虚假降水的一种可能原因

通过分析NCAR CCM3气候模式的15年积分结果,从形成降水的垂直运动和水汽供应条件的角度,试图揭示该模式在东亚季风区产生不合理虚假强降水的可能原因.与观测的降水分布相比,CCM3模拟的东亚季风区降水中心位置偏西,雨量偏强,其中对流降水占虚假降水中心总降水量的82%左右.进一步分析发现,对流层上层200 hPa副热带急流南侧的散度季节变化与110°E以西的虚假降水季节变化具有较好的对应关系,急流入口区附近的直接垂直环流上升支位于青藏高原东北部,同时由于急流南侧对流层上层辐散引起的抽吸作用,加强低层的垂直运动,从而为虚假的强对流降水形成提供上升运动条件.分析对流层低层的水汽(比湿)分布和水汽输送表明,模拟的青藏高原地区大气的水汽含量比NCEP/NCAR再分析的水汽含量高,经过高原从孟加拉湾输送到虚假降水中心地区的水汽偏强,从而为虚假的强对流降水形成提供了充足的水汽条件.因此,在改进气候模式对东亚季风区虚假降水的模拟性能时,除了对模式物理过程做改进外,在青藏高原附近地区的水汽分布和水汽输送以及对流层上层西风急流位置和强度模拟的合理性方面也需要引起足够的重视.     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

The terraced thermal contrast among the Tibetan Plateau, the East Asian plain, and the western North Pacific and its impacts on the seasonal transition of East Asian climate

The heating sources over the Tibetan Plateau （TP）, the East Asian plain, and the western North Pacific （WNP） form a terraced thermal contrast in the west-east direction. Over East Asia and the WNP, this zonal thermal contrast contributes as high as 45 % to the seasonal variance based on the EOF analysis and exerts a significant impact on the seasonal transition of the East Asian climate through the enhancement of the year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP in late March and early April. This effect is investigated in this study using a high-resolution regional atmospheric model by doubling the surface sen- sible heat flux, respectively, over the TP, the East Asian plain, and the WNP in three sensitivity experiments. Comparisons among the experiments reveal that doubling the surface sensible heat flux over the WNP has little upstream response over East Asia. The increased zonal thermal contrast between the TP and the East Asian plain due to doubled heat flux over the TP would induce anomalous northerly over the region with year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP and weaken its seasonal enhancement. Doubling the surface sensible heat flux over the East Asian plain decreases the zonal thermal contrast and leads to southerly anomaly over the region with year-round southerly to the southeast of the TP and South China, which is favorable for the enhancement of the year-round southerly and its eastward extension.     

Stalagmite-inferred Holocene precipitation in northern Guizhou Province,China, and asynchronous termination of the Climatic Optimum in the Asian monsoon territory

An absolute-dated, bi-decadal-resolution, stalagmite oxygen-isotopic time series from Shigao Cave reveals the evolution of summer monsoon precipitation over the past 9.9 ka BP in northern Guizhou Province, Southwest China. The  18O-inferred climate conditions are divisible into three distinct stages: (1) a maximum humid era from 9.9-6.6 ka BP; (2) a gradual declining precipitation interval between 6.6-1.6 ka BP; and (3) a relatively low precipitation time window after 1.6 ka BP. Consistency of contemporaneous stalagmite Holocene 18O records between Shigao and other caves in the Indian and East Asian monsoon realms support the effect of primary orbital solar forcings on monsoonal precipitation. However, statistical analysis shows a significant spatial asynchroneity of the Holocene Optimum termination in the Asian monsoon territory. The Holocene Optimum ended at 7.2-7.4 ka BP in Oman, located in the Indian monsoon region, and at 5.6-5.8 ka BP in Central China, in the East Asian monsoon zone. In Southwest China, the termination occurred between these periods, at 6.6-7.0 ka BP, and was influenced by both monsoon systems. We propose that this spatially asynchronous ending of Holocene Optimum in Asia may be attributed to sea surface temperature changes in the western tropical Pacific, which is a primary moisture source for the East Asian monsoon.