Estimation of Fired Polynomial Effects of Mixed Models Based on PBIB

ＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｏｆＦｉｒｅｄＰｏｌｙｎｏｍｉａｌＥｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｆＭｉｘｅｄＭｏｄｅｌｓＢａｓｅｄｏｎＰＢＩＢＴＡＯＪｉｎｇｘｕａｎ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＭａｔｈｅｍａｔｉｃｓ，ＸｉｎｙａｎｇＮｏｒｍａｌＣｏｌｌｅｇｅ．Ｘｉｎｙａｎｇ４６４...     

Exploration and Study on Similarity Theory

This paper introduces the similarity theory as the theoretical foundation of system simulation. The concepts of similarity theory, similarity styles and similarity methods are discussed.     

A Systemic Exploration of Lesotho’s Basic Education through Interactive Management

Lesotho is an inland country striving to improve its economy. Accessible education is perceived as an effective approach to economic growth. Over the years, various projects were commenced to improve Lesotho’s basic education provision. However, the progress is not satisfactory or stable. This paper argues for systemic thinking and adopts Warfield’s interactive management to identify the difficulties in Lesotho’s education projects. Interactive management can help stakeholders to identify system elements, structure the relationship between systems elements and produce a diagraph representing the system in question. The core mechanism of interactive management is a binary matrix which can infer the existence of a relationship between system elements, provided that the relationship is transitive. Four root problems were identified through the interactive management process: ‘board members not educated’, ‘poor service delivery by the Ministry of Education and Training to teachers’, ‘food insecurity’ and ‘reduced and standardisation of school fees at post primary schools’. The developed model demonstrates how system elements are interconnected. The model has potential to be used as a starting point for the Lesotho government to manage on its basic education problems through the identified root causes.     

Robust Estimation of Variance Components Model

ＲｏｂｕｓｔＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｏｆＶａｒｉａｎｃｅＣｏｍｐｏｎｅｎｔｓＭｏｄｅｌ￥ＭＡＣｈａｏｑｕｎ；ＸＵＡＮＪｉａｊｉ（ＩｎｔｅｒｎａｔｉｏｎａｌＢｕｓｉｎｅｓｓＳｃｈｏｏｌｏｆＨｕｍａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｈｕｎａｎ，４１００８２，Ｃｈｉｎａ...     

A General Theory of Estimation of Variance-Covariance Components

ＡＧｅｎｅｒａｌＴｈｅｏｒｙｏｆＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｏｆＶａｒｉａｎｃｅＣｏｖａｒｉａｎｃｅＣｏｍｐｏｎｅｎｔｓＭＡＣｈａｏｑｕｎＬＩＱｉｎｇｇｕｏＩｎｔｅｒｎａｔｉｏｎａｌＢｕｓｉｎｅｓＳｃｈｏｌｏｆＨｕｎａｎＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｈｕｎａｎ４１...     

Quantitative Analysis of Impact of Education on Improving Farmers′ Net Income and Yield Per Capita

1　 IntroductionWith farmers covering 70 percent of whole population of China,improving farmers′income and theirconsumption level is the basis ofenlarging domestic needs and developingspeedy and healthy Chinese economy.How to improve farmers′income is always the focusof agricultural problem.Many international studies have shown that education and agricultural efficiency areclosely linked.Education and technology become more important in agriculture with thetransition from traditional to mod…     

The Software Costs Estimation Based on UML Model

UML is a standard modeling language used in object-oriented analysis and design. Function point analysis is a method used to measure the size of an application, It is independent of the implementation programming language. Its measuring result can be compared between different development processes. This paper presents a method to use the requirements analysis model of UML to analysis the application‘s function points, so software developer can use it to estimate the project‘s size and cost. An improved method is given at the end of this paper.     

Quantitative Analysis of Impact of Education on Improving Farmers‘ Net Income and Yield Per Capita

In this paper,we analyze the relation between farmers‘ schooling and their net income and yield per capita by systemic and scientific method,concluding that improving farmers‘ educational level may increase their net income.     

Motion Estimation Based on Global and Local Compensability Analysis

ＭｏｔｉｏｎＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎＢａｓｅｄｏｎＧｌｏｂａｌａｎｄＬｏｃａＣｏｍｐｅｎｓａｂｉｌｉｔｙＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓTXＭｏｔｉｏｎＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎＢａｓｅｄｏｎＧｌｏｂａｌａｎｄＬｏｃａｌＣｏｍｐｅｎｓａｂｉｌｉｔｙＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓＦａｎＪｉｎ...     

The Influence of Employees’ Ethical Behavior on Enterprises’ Social Responsibility

The enterprises’ social responsibility (CSR) importantly depends upon behavior and its important factors like values, culture, ethics and norms. This article investigates how employees’ ethical behavior defines CSR. Article includes a comprehensive literature review, and empirical results of survey about employees’ perception of ethical behavior and relations between employees’ ethical attitudes and CSR. Sample consists of more than 900 employees in Slovenian enterprises, collected in last decade. Trends about employee’s perceptions of ethical, economic, environmental, and social attitudes, show increasing importance of ethical and environmental attitudes, and decreasing importance of striving for economic performance. Social attitudes remain unchanged over the entire decade. Employees’ ethical perceptions positively and significantly impact their attitudes toward social and environmental concerns. Their impact on attitudes toward giving priority to economic results is negative and significant. The considered relations were controlled by demographic variables mediating the relationship only for economic concern. Results of trends and relations confirm the significant influence of employees’ ethical behavior on CSR. The developed solution enables improvement of CSR considering importance of influences of employees’ ethical attitudes on aspects of CSR. The proposed solution reduces unexplained part of CSR related to ethical behavior and develops requisitely holistic methodological framework for future consideration of other behavior factors in enterprise.     

Dynamic price model based on transmission delay — Petroleum price fluctuation in China

Petroleum is a kind of fundamental energy resource. Its price fluctuation transmits from upper-stream industry to the lower-stream industry as the production factors price changes. And this leads to the price changes of final consumption. Meantime, due to the cycle of industrial chain, the price changes of lower-stream industry also affect the upper-stream industry in return. This price transmission path is quite complicated. Firstly, it includes both direct and indirect paths; secondly, the transmission process is accompanied with time delay. The traditional input-output price model based on cost-push theory can efficiently solve the first problem when estimating the impact of price fluctuation on the whole price system. However, it neither reflects the dynamic characteristics of price transmission with time nor solves the second problem. To solve this problem, this paper uses the directed weighted network to describe the price transmission among industrial sectors by taking the time-dimension into account, and dynamic price transmission network model is constructed. This model not only describes transmission time delay more accurately, but also calculates the price fluctuation dynamically. On this basis, by utilizing the 2007 Chinese input-output table, this paper conducts empirical analysis on the impact of petroleum price fluctuation on other sectors. The empirical results indicate that the price fluctuation transmission mainly depends on two factors, the orice reaction period Tk and the consumption relationship with petroleum aik. 1） If t 〈 Tk, then the price change of sector k at period t △pkt = 0, the petroleum price fluctuation has not transmitted to the sector k, so the price of sector k remains unchanged. 2） If t 〉 Tk, then Apt 〉 0, and the greater aik, the higher price change rate. 3） If t →∞, it is the same with that in traditional input-output price model. So it can be clearly seen that dynamic price transmission network model is more general than the traditional model, and the traditional model is just an asymptotical special case when time approaches to infinity. Keywords Directed weighted network, input-output price model, petroleum price, transmission time delay.     

Strong Convergence Rate of Parameter Estimation for a Class of Stochastic Systems

In this paper we obtain the convergence rate of strongly consistent estimate for coefficients of closed-loop ARMAX system driven by iid random sequence, after adaptively stabilizing the system without introducing external excitation signal. The system is allowed to be unstable and of nonminimum-phase.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Identification Parameters and Its Correction

By taking the subsequence out of the input-output sequence of a system polluted by white noise, an independent observation sequence and its probability density are obtained and then a maximum likelihood estimation of the identification parameters is given. In order to decrease the asymptotic error, a corrector of maximum likelihood (CML) estimation with its recursive algorithm is given. It has been proved that the corrector has smaller asymptotic error than the least square methods. A simulation example shows that the corrector of maximum likelihood estimation is of higher approximating precision to the true parameters than the least square methods.     

Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing’s Population

This paper explores the impacts of the universal two-child policy on Beijing's population in the long term. It gives a detail estimation of Beijing population considering the latest fertility and immigration policy and can help related government department management population. The cohortcomponent method based on a net migration was applied to project population by age for Beijing from2020 to 2050 in four fertility scenarios. The innovation is the estimation method of the mortality rate with the life table linked with life expectancy. The results show that, though the basic development trend of Beijing's population will not change essentially under the universal two-child policy, low birth rate and aging problems will be improved. Compared with the partial policy relaxation, the total population will be 876,478 persons more than that in 2050, the share of population aged 0–14 will increase 1.1 percentage points, and the aged dependency ratio will decrease 1.96 percentage points.Some measures should be taken to encourage more couples to have a second child and introduce more young talents to promote Beijing's prosperity.     

Impact of Fall Armyworm on Farmer’s Maize: Systemic Approach

Systemic Practice and Action Research - Fall armyworm (FAW) infestation in African countries presents significant threats to maize production. Such infestation has major economic implications in...     

The Impact of Competition on Analysts’ Forecasts: A Simple Agent-Based Model

Journal of Systems Science and Complexity - This paper builds an agent-based model to study the impact of analyst competition on analyst optimism. Two strategies (a catering strategy and a pressure...     

The Asymptotic properties of the Higher-order Moments of the Orthogonal Estimation for the Inverse C

Ｉｎｔｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒｗｅｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｔｈｅａｓｙｍｐｔｏｔｉｃｐｒｏｐｅｒｔｉｅｓｆｏｒｔｈｅｈｉｇｈｅｒ－ｏｒｄｅｒｍｏｍｅｎｔｓｏｆ崐ｔｈｅｏｒｔｈｏｇｏｎａｌｅｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｆｏｒｔｈｅｉｎｖｅｒｓｅｃｏｒｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｆｕｎｃｔｉｏｎ     

A New Method of State Estimation for Singular Discrete-time Stochastic Linear System

ＡＮｅｗＭｅｔｈｏｄｏｆＳｔａｔｅＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎｆｏｒＳｉｎｇｕｌａｒＤｉｓｃｒｅｔｅｔｉｍｅＳｔｏｃｈａｓｔｉｃＬｉｎｅａｒＳｙｓｔｅｍＷＡＮＧＹｕｚｈｅｎＷＡＮＧＬｉａｎｇｕｏＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ，Ｓｈａ...     

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Generalized Cointegrating Vectors in A Generalized Cointegrated System

ＥｓｔｉｍａｔｉｏｎａｎｄＨｙｐｏｔｈｅｓｉｓＴｅｓｔｉｎｇｏｆＧｅｎｅｒａｌｉｚｅｄＣｏｉｎｔｅｇｒａｔｉｎｇＶｅｃｔｏｒｓｉｎＡＧｅｎｅｒａｌｉｚｅｄＣｏｉｎｔｅｇｒａｔｅｄＳｙｓｔｅｍＴｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒｉｓｓｕｐｐｏｒｔｅｄｂｙｔｈｅＳｐｅ...     

Estimation for Jump-diffusion Term Structure of Interest Rate for China Government Bond Market

This paper examines the term structure of interest rate empirically, and discovers that jump-diffusion process is better than pure diffusion process when describing the stochastic behavior of interest rate, which including jump risk. Using two-stage method to estimate the term structure of China government bond market. Fitting the initial term structure with B-spline approximation method, and then as input to jump-diffusion model parameter estimation. The result accounts for that term structure with jump can explain the actual conditions of China government bond market.