Environmental Scanning and Scenario Planning: A 12 month Perspective on Applying the Viable Systems Model to Developing Public Sector Foresight

An environmental scan project is outlined and discussed using the viable systems model (VSM). A participant/observer perspective applied futures thinking, systems practice, scenario orientated narratives and risk assessment frameworks to an annual corporate planning process involving engagement and communication with senior public sector executives. Focus was given to improving foresight techniques through the innovative use of existing resources and skills. Results included additional work on scenario development, designing a decentralised “Development Directorate” network and evaluating complexity science sense-making techniques to enhance foresight capacity. Submitted with assistance from Dr. Angela Espinosa, Hull University Business School, UK. The views expressed in this paper are the author’s and do not represent those of any organisation mentioned or implied.     

Case Study Application of VSM to Transfer Pricing

Transfer pricing is a challenging problem for MNEs. This research reports quantitative results from a survey of Taiwanese MNEs operating in China, indicating differences between method frequency domestically and internationally, and mainly authoriarian top down transfer pricing decision-making. A transfer pricing system, based on the viable system model (VSM), is proposed to introduce an open systems holistic approach. The proposed VSM transfer pricing system is applied in seven MNEs, and the outcome of the applications is reported from interviews with CEOs. The proposed VSM transfer pricing system was reported to lead to improved transfer pricing decision-making, because of more complete information, integrated information flow, people know their responsibilities, more accountability, fewer conflicts, more participation, and more proactivity.     

不确定多期滚动项目组合选择优化模型

在经典项目组合选择问题的基础上, 建立了不确定条件下多期滚动项目组合选择模型, 以各期获利最大为优化目标, 以企业战略需求与所选项目合成战略贡献之间的均衡匹配性和资源增益性为关联约束条件. 基于模糊理论提出了上 方贴近度和下方贴近度概念, 用以对战略均衡匹配性进行度量. 应用可能性理论将所建模型转换为确定性模型. 采用遗传算法对模型求解, 并基于路径再连接(path relinking, PR)算法思想, 设计了适合0-1编码的逐次替代法和逐次后移法进行局部搜索, 获得了较好的求解效果. 仿真测试显示, 进行多期滚动项目组合选择时, 在5期以内可以保证获利的稳定性, 获利波动期在第6-8期, 可以帮助企业确定最佳战略调整期. 各期不同类型的项目选择数量也具有较明显的周期性变化规律. 研究结果具有实践指导意义.     

逐层增枝结构行为检验建模法——以农户沼气工程为例

农村小型循环沼气工程是中国"十三五农业循环沼气工程"的3项工程建设之一,但是,现存在户用沼气池闲置率高的严重问题,需建立可靠性高的仿真模型,仿真提高户用沼气池使用率的对策效应。而如何实现还原论与整体论相结合的原则建立系统动力学仿真模型,如何实现更有效的检验方法提高模型的可靠性又是待深入研究的重要问题.针对上类问题,首先,给出子系统仿真定理,结构行为检验的内涵,新建"逐层增枝结构行为检验建模法"的步骤.接着,根据新建模法,建立农村小型循环沼气工程系统普遍存在的户数-原料-沼气-沼液种植入树T_1(t)-T_7(t)七棵前期流率基本入树,分3次进行结构行为检验,构建可靠性高的第一部分前期流率基本入树模型,通过参数组合仿真此第一部分入树模型,揭示出工程未来发展存在的进度慢、气待开发增、种下降3大问题.然后,针对此3大问题,提出新增户沼气服务技工人员和建立技术人员工资及服务费保障机制2条新措施,针对新措施又新建立2棵入树,并新增加后2棵入树对前7棵入树的流率的3条技工影响反馈枝,构成户-原-沼-种-技-投入树T_1(t)-T_9(t)九棵流率基本入树模型.通过仿真九入树模型,揭示新措施实施对工程未来解除问题的好效果。论证了2个新措施的正确性,建立了"通过政府、高校研究部门、服务技术员、企业、农户5个子系目标责任的实现,实现户用沼气池工程发展的总目标"的管理原理.研究新建立了一种通过增枝的提高模型可靠性、增强操作性、降低建模难度的建模法.     

Using the Viable Systems Model to Structure a System Dynamics Mapping and Modeling Project for the Australian Taxation Office

This paper is a case study of a major System Dynamics (SD) intervention in policy design in the Australian Taxation Office. The project, which lasted two years, tested a number of hypotheses regarding the application of Stafford Beer's Viable Systems Model (VSM) to the structure and process of the project. The paper reports that the success of the VSM within the ATO was qualified by political changes in the external environment.     

随机活动工期下基于总不确定成本的项目前摄性调度与反应性调度集成优化

从成本经济角度研究活动工期随机中断下前摄性调度与反应性调度在应对不确定因素干扰中的集成优化问题,目标是最小化项目计划与实施过程的总成本.构建以总成本最优为目标的前摄性与反应性调度集成优化模型;针对模型特征设计混合变邻域随机禁忌搜索启发式算法,并在ProGen生成的算例上进行全因子测试.结果表明:基于随机属性的混合启发式...     

Systemic Model for Diagnosis of the Micro,Small and Medium Enterprises from Two Cities from the Countryside of the State of <Emphasis Type="Italic">São Paulo</Emphasis> in Brazil

This article presents a proposal of a systemic model composed for the micro and small companies (MSE) of the region of Ribeirão Preto and the agents which influenced their environment. The proposed model was based on Stafford Beer’s (Diagnosing the system for organizations. Chichester, Wiley, 1985) systemic methodologies VSM (Viable System Model) and on Werner Ulrich’s (1983) CSH (Critical Systems Heuristics). The VSM is a model for the diagnosis of the structure of an organization and of its flows of information through the application of the cybernetics concepts (Narvarte, In El Modelo del Sistema Viable—MSV: experiencias de su aplicación en Chile. Proyecto Cerebro Colectivo del IAS, Santiago, 2001). On the other hand, CSH focus on the context of the social group applied to the systemic vision as a counterpoint to the organizational management view considered by the VSM. MSE of Ribeirão Preto and Sertãozinho had been analyzed as organizations inserted in systems that relate and integrate with other systems concerning the public administration, entities of representation and promotion agencies. The research questions: which are the bonds of interaction among the subsystems in this process and who are the agents involved? The systemic approach not only diagnosed a social group, formed by MSE of Ribeirão Preto and Sertãozinho, public authorities and support entities, but could also delineate answers that aimed the clarification of obscure questions generating financial assistance to the formularization of efficient actions for the development of this system.     

供应链大系统广义算子模型

探讨广义算子模型在供应链系统研究中的应用.分析典型的供应链大系统信息传递流程,按照分解综合的方法,先建立外部模型(粗粒度广义算子模型),再逐层深入分解,针对每个决策点或控制环节再建立更细粒度的广义算子模型,如此层层深入,组成多粒度的供应链大系统广义算子模型.广义算子模型为供应链的研究提供了一个新思路.     

广义技术成熟度评价模型

结合科技工程特点,研究如何量化评价重大工程中关键技术的成熟程度.在传统技术成熟度方法基础上,首先对设计成熟度、制造成熟度、产品成熟度、集成成熟度和系统成熟度等方法进行了研究改进,提出了广义技术成熟度的概念.然后研究了这些成熟度的综合集成关系,建立了广义技术成熟度集成模型,提出了广义技术成熟度的评价特征模型.最后研究了广义技术成熟度在科技工程转阶段评估和管理决策中的应用模型.研究提出的广义技术成熟度模型,已经在重大航天科技工程中得到了应用,可以更全面和准确地对关键技术的成熟程度进行评价.     

Diagnosis of Organizational Soft Problems in a Peruvian Financial Institution by Systemic Thinking

Managing financial institutions in an underdeveloped economic context has become a real challenge nowadays. In order to reach the organization’s planned goals, they have to deal with structural, behavioral and informational problems. From the systemic point of view, this situation gets even worse when the company does not present organizational boundaries and a cohesive identification for their stakeholders. Thus, European countries have some special financial lines in order to help the development of micro credit in Latin communities in an attempt to help the local economy. However, institutions like Caixa dos Andes in Peru present management problems when dealing with this complexity. Based on this, how can the systemic eye help in the diagnosis of soft problems of a Peruvian financial company? This study aims to diagnose soft problems of a Peruvian financial company based on soft variables like identity, communication and autonomy and also intends to identify possible ways to redesign its basic framework. The (VSM––Viable System Model) method from Beer (1967), applied in this diagnostic study, was used in a practical way as a management tool for organizations’ analysis and planning. By describing the VSM’s five systems, the creation of a systemic vision or a total vision is possible, showing the organization’s complexity from the inside. Some company’s soft problems like double control, inefficient use of physical and human resources, low information flows, slowness, etc. The VSM presented an organizational diagnosis indicating effective solutions that do integrate its five systems.     

An Adaptive Use of Viable System Model with Knowledge System Diagnostics Serving Industrial Democracy in a Textile Manufacturing Company

The primary purpose of this research is to improve Beer’s Viable System Model (VSM) which is built on cybernetic principles and tools and aims to design adaptive, responsive and goal-seeking organisations possessing all features of viability. Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of VSM, this research proposes to enhance the model by using it in combination with Topp’s Knowledge System Diagnostics (KSD) which tries to uncover an organisation’s rules of formation making possible the creation and maintenance of knowledge within an organisation. It is thought that, equipped with this information, an adaptive application of VSM with KSD might cure unhealthy managerial practice—a lack of employee involvement in decision making and responsibility and authority sharing—observed both in a textile manufacturer and VSM. Methodological implications of this version of multimethodology are discussed, and then research site issues are revealed and recommendations are made.     

Design Rules for Intranets According to the Viable System Model

The Viable System Model, VSM, by Stafford Beer is a model used for diagnosing and designing organizational structure and communication to facilitate necessary and sufficient conditions for viability. The model has been used for diagnosing different kinds of organizations at different levels where its use highlights existing or missing communication patterns and information flows in different communication channels and relates findings to a viable system. In a previous article, VSM and Intranet have been discussed and examples of advantages of combining the two concepts when designing organizations, has been given. In this article, VSM is combined with Intranet and possible functions in an intranet that support information exchange between different systems are identified and described. The suggested functions identified in this article are finally related to Intranet use modes, and the concepts of Empowerment vs. control.     

改进的Elman网络与机理模型的互补建模方法

利用一种改进的Ｅｌｍａｎ动态神经网络,并结合系统的机理模型,给出了一种适用于在线仿真的互补建模方法。 本方法的实现复杂大系统的在线仿真提供了一个理想的建模途径。     

Functions and Inter-Relationships of Operating Agencies in Policy Implementation from a Viable System Perspective

Existence of supporting entities and their cohesive operations are important elements in industry development policy undertaken in emerging economies, which are characterized by heavy government interventions and involved many agencies and institutions. One of the models that emphasizes on cohesiveness as a precondition for viability is the viable system model (VSM). In this study, we adopt the VSM in combination with theories of innovation and innovation system as our conceptual framework to describe and explain the functions and relational structure that exist among agencies/institutions and that of the agencies with their environment elements within one policy level system implementation. We select a biotechnology industry development policy for our analysis, the implementation of which has been designated as a strategic vehicle to support the economic development goals of an emerging economy. The findings, which generate a model of the policy-level system implementation, explain the operating agencies’ functions and their inter-relationships. The emergent model provides policy makers and implementers recommendations for improvements, as well as offers future researchers potential for comparison between existing performance of a policy implementation against its expected performance targets. The study concludes that the biotechnology industry development is an effort by the Malaysian government to institutionalize biotechnology businesses and industry. The perspective of systems thinking, in combination with theories of institutionalization, innovation and innovation system, provide important foundations in explaining technology-based industry development. All these findings highlight that the knowledge gain in explaining and interpreting the problem in focus is worthwhile, although the use of VSM as a research tool demands considerable efforts.     

The critical kernel in modern systems thinking

This paper unpeels two influential contributions to modern systems thinking, Beer's viable system model (VSM) and Checkland's soft systems methodology (SSM), and finds inside a critical kernel. It is argued, indeed, that these approaches become coherent only when liberated from their regulative shells and interpreted from the critical position. So much does the critical kernel lie at the very heart of modern systems thinking.     

The VSM toolbox: Software for the viable system model

Learning and using the viable system model (VSM) are both facilitated by good software. This paper reports on software developed to support expert users in storing, managing, and retrieving the data associated with large-scale VSM studies. The software also seems to help novice users in learning to apply the VSM. To stereotype the software somewhat, it is a graphics-interface dbms for the various diagrams associated with VSM, for instance, the diagrams in Stafford Beer'sDiagnosing the System for Organizations (Wiley, Chichester, 1984).     

大规模分布仿真系统架构设计技术参考模型

近年来对大规模分布仿真系统产生了更多需求,但对它的架构设计研究还难以充分支撑实际工程开发,为此给出一个技术参考模型,对仿真系统架构的技术体系,以及核心组件进行定义和说明。技术参考模型可以为重构现有系统,以及开发下一代系统提供参考。     

A Systems Approach for Engaging Groups in Global Complexity: Capacity Building Through an Online Course

Sustainability is not simply about changing practices but more centrally about agreeing to change practices together. To achieve such an end, groups need to improve processes for making complex decisions together. An online course was designed and tested linking students in the United States and in Australia. Students engaged in a re-enactment of deliberations based on Hasan Ozbekhan’s “Predicament of Mankind,” which was constructed originally under assignment from the founders of the Club of Rome in 1970. This re-enactment included contemporary research for examples of a set of 49 continuous critical problems of mankind, asynchronous clarification of these problems using a wiki, pair-wise construction of a systems view of problems assessed to be of highest priority by the class, narrative analysis of the structure, and creative suggestions for resolving the systems problem based on resources available today. This report comments on the strengths and challenges identified in an initial application of an approach for building collaborative and systems thinking skills through an online course in a general education curriculum. Findings are particularly meaningful for contemporary policy makers as well as online educators.     

From Practitioner to Researcher: Designing the Dissertation Process for Part Time Coursework Masters Students

Coursework Masters degrees that are offered as block release programmes provide opportunities for access to postgraduate education for adult students while in full time employ. These students attend structured contact modules after which they return to home and work and a distance format of study. However, these courses are generally characterised by low completion rates and lengthy time to completion, particularly of the research dissertation. While various explanations for this problem have been offered, for example, students’ non-academic commitments and supervisor–student-relations, our particular concern in this paper is students’ reading and writing practices in the transition from professional work practice and Masters coursework to the research dissertation. This paper proposes a systemic design to improve student reading and writing in this transition, and the proposal is illustrated using a block release coursework Masters programme in Management at a South African university. The design draws on interpretive systems ideas to think about the different levels of institutional and disciplinary context that impact on the research dissertation. We also use an academic literacies perspective—the concepts of literacy practice, language identity and power in particular—to think about reading and writing. This design incorporates components that include system elements, relationships, purpose and feedback that facilitate interaction between the conventions of the research practice, what the student brings to the practice, and the agency of the student.     

连续爆炸式水声干扰弹对抗仿真系统开发研究

以水下武器对抗作战为背景,设计开发了一种以连续爆炸式水声干扰弹为基础、基于声信号仿真的水声对抗仿真系统。在详细讨论了系统的模块组成及其相应仿真功能的基础上,构建出基于分布交互式体系结构的水声对抗仿真系统,特别给出了连续爆炸式水声干扰弹的声学模型与仿真模型,介绍了系统实现上的关键技术,最后以对抗某型鱼雷为例进行了仿真实验,证实了系统设计方案的可行性和有效性。仿真实例表明,该系统具有很好的实验研究功能。