Thinking about the future: A cognitive perspective

The promises and challenges of a cognitive approach to strategic planning and subjective forecasting are examined. Strategic thinking is viewed as comprising three components: (1) knowledge base, (2) problem representation, and (3) inference processes linking the first two. Analysis of these components, it is argued, can be an important aid to understanding and guiding managerial problem solving. We review several techniques for modeling strategic thinking and planning, including network representations, production systems, causal maps, and analyses of argumentation. We consider the strengths and weaknesses of different cognitive analysis techniques and discuss how they might be implemented. Much more experience and refinement will be needed to produce well-specified procedures for cognitive analysis of planning. We conclude, however, that even at the current stage of development, significant benefits can accrue from a cognitive approach to strategic planning.     

Forecasting for business planning: A case study of IBM product sales

This is a case study of a closely managed product. Its purpose is to determine whether time-series methods can be appropriate for business planning. By appropriate, we mean two things: whether these methods can model and estimate the special events or features that are often present in sales data; and whether they can forecast accurately enough one, two and four quarters ahead to be useful for business planning. We use two time-series methods, Box-Jenkins modeling and Holt-Winters adaptive forecasting, to obtain forecasts of shipments of a closely managed product. We show how Box-Jenkins transfer-function models can account for the special events in the data. We develop criteria for choosing a final model which differ from the usual methods and are specifically directed towards maximizing the accuracy of next-quarter, next-half-year and next-full-year forecasts. We find that the best Box-Jenkins models give forecasts which are clearly better than those obtained from Holt-Winters forecast functions, and are also better than the judgmental forecasts of IBM's own planners. In conclusion, we judge that Box-Jenkins models can be appropriate for business planning, in particular for determining at the end of the year baseline business-as-usual annual and monthly forecasts for the next year, and in mid-year for resetting the remaining monthly forecasts.     

Water compartments in the myelinated nerve. III. Pulsed NMR results.

3 experimentally distinct transverse relaxation components of the water in frog sciatic nerve are obtained by Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill technique. The relative weights of these components: approximately 29%; approximately 50%; approximately 21% fit well with water compartments in this tissue as revealed by previous methods.     

黄土高原水土保持与农业可持续发展工程技术措施及应用

水和土是人类赖以生存的重要资源，也是自然资源的重要组成部分，还是国民经济发展的基础。本文根据黄土高原地区治理的长远计划和远景目标规划，通过总结历史经验和失败教训，针对黄土高原地区水土流失严重的实际情况，提出了黄土高原地区水土保持及生态环境的恢复与重建的具体对策和工程技术，为决策部门提供可靠科学依据。     

黄石市沿江大道建设初探

通过实地考察调研,并结合黄石市城市发展规划,提出了沿江大道建设的初步方案.指出了建设的难点问题以及解决措施,分析了沿江大道建设对于黄石宜居城市建设和城市转型的重要意义.目的在于为城市交通规划提供参考,促进沿江地区乃至整个黄石经济社会发展     

The cytosolic and membrane components required for peroxisomal protein import

Peroxisomes are vital intracellular organelles which house enzymes involved in a variety of metabolic pathways. The large number of human disorders associated with flawed peroxisome biogenesis emphasizes the importance of protein targeting to, and translocation across, the peroxisomal membrane. This brief review will summarize some of the emerging themes of peroxisomal protein import, specifically addressing the targeting signals possessed by constituent proteins, as well as the cytosolic, membrane and luminal components of the import machinery. Although a detailed understanding of the molecular mechanisms of peroxisomal protein import is not yet available, remarkable progress has been made in the field in recent years. An overview of these advances will be presented.     

A unified view of statistical forecasting procedures

A large number of statistical forecasting procedures for univariate time series have been proposed in the literature. These range from simple methods, such as the exponentially weighted moving average, to more complex procedures such as Box–Jenkins ARIMA modelling and Harrison–Stevens Bayesian forecasting. This paper sets out to show the relationship between these various procedures by adopting a framework in which a time series model is viewed in terms of trend, seasonal and irregular components. The framework is then extended to cover models with explanatory variables. From the technical point of view the Kalman filter plays an important role in allowing an integrated treatment of these topics.     

城市土地集约利用潜力评价信息系统构建浅析

城市土地集约利用潜力评价是一项复杂的系统工程。在整合城市规划信息系统、多用途地籍信息系统、房地产开发与管理信息系统、城镇土地定级估价信息系统等的基础上开发城市土地集约利用潜力评价信息系统,可实现此项工作的一期自动化,日常管理更新动态化,从而推动土地工作向科学化、现代化方向发展。     

大气污染优化控制理论的一些新进展

本文介绍了国内学者的最新研究成果，包括了大气污染优化控制理论在以下几个具体应用领域的进展：(1)工业污染源的优化布局。应用伴随方法计算目标函数的梯度以求解优化问题，给出了理论框架。进行了数值试验。(2)短期空气质量的动态控制。应用实际气象数据和污染源数据进行了优化控制数值模拟。(3)化学风险的预先评价与控制。应用伴随方法，对运动化学源进行风险评价。规划最佳运输路线；针对禁止化学武器公约中处理日本二战期间遗弃化学武器的有关问题。妥善选择化武销毁工厂的地址。以上优化控制问题，以气象预报模式和大气污染预报模式为基础，而以伴随方法和最优化算法为求解途径，数值试验表明理论的正确性和方法的高效率。新发展的理论和方法与数值模式和观测技术紧密结合，并且顺应了计算机速度和容量高速增长的趋势。从而具有广阔的应用前景。     

A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning

We first present scenario analysis as a qualitative forecasting technique useful for strategic planning. Then we develop an overview of the two classes of methods for scenario analysis described in the literature. Based on both classes, a new method is developed which especially fits the needs of strategic planning. The method can be divided into three stages: 1. Determination of compatible scenarios, 2. Determination of scenario probabilities, and 3. Determination of main scenarios. An example is given to illustrate the method.     

Matriptase and its putative role in cancer

Tumor progression and metastasis are the pathologic effects of uncontrolled or deregulated invasive growth, a process in which proteases play a fundamental role. They mediate the degradation of extracellular matrix components and intercellular cohesive structures to allow migration of the cells into the extracellular environment and activate growth and angiogenic factors. In addition to metalloproteases and the plasminogen activation system, another protease, matriptase, contributes substantially to these processes. Matriptase is a type II transmembrane trypsin-like serine protease that is expressed by cells of epithelial origin and is overexpressed in a variety of human cancers. It has been suggested that this protease not only facilitates cellular invasiveness but may also activate oncogenic pathways. This review summarizes current knowledge about matriptase, its putative role in tumor initiation and progression, and its potential as a novel target in anti-cancer therapy. Received 29 June 2006; received after revision 1 August 2006; accepted 19 September 2006     

Ultrastructure of epiphyseal cartilage after extraction on thin sections of "Epon" of proteoglycans by calcium chloride]

Dissociative methods are commonly used to extract proteoglycans. With a 2 M CaCl2 solution these components can be also extracted from thin sections of fixed, "Epon" included material. Secretory granules of the chondrocytes, granular components of extracellular matrix as matrix vesicles lost their electron density. Glycoproteins of the cell coat as non collagenous glycoproteins disappear. The method seems to be valuable for extracting proteoglycans from thin sections prepared for electron microscope investigations.     

Revisiting Targeted Factors

This paper proposes new methods for ‘targeting’ factors estimated from a big dataset. We suggest that forecasts of economic variables can be improved by tuning factor estimates: (i) so that they are both more relevant for a specific target variable; and (ii) so that variables with considerable idiosyncratic noise are down‐weighted prior to factor estimation. Existing targeted factor methodologies are limited to estimating the factors with only one of these two objectives in mind. We therefore combine these ideas by providing new weighted principal components analysis (PCA) procedures and a targeted generalized PCA (TGPCA) procedure. These methods offer a flexible combination of both types of targeting that is new to the literature. We illustrate this empirically by forecasting a range of US macroeconomic variables, finding that our combined approach yields important improvements over competing methods, consistently surviving elimination in the model confidence set procedure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Urban bioclimatology in developing countries

A brief review of the literature on urban human bioclimatology in the tropics is undertaken. Attempts to chart human bioclimatic conditions on the regional/local scale have been made in several developing countries. The effective temperature scheme (with all its limitations) is the one that has been most frequently applied. The possibilities of application of bioclimatic models based on human heat balance for the tropical urban environment are discussed.     

世界管道物流运输的发展现状及关键技术分析

在目前的信息化时代，传统的交通运输方式已经阻碍了社会的发展，城市的交通拥堵、环境污染以及电子商务(e-business)的物流瓶颈等也都是困扰大城市的首要问题。为此，许多国家正在研究管道物流系统，特别是城市地下管道物流运输系统，更是一个十分新颖的研究领域。本文介绍了国外管道物流的发展历史及研究现状，分析了地下管道物流研究要解决的关键问题主要集中在工程规划建设和相关技术、自动化传输和监控技术和成本效益分析三个方面。本世纪大力发展和全面推动城市地下管道物流系统建设的技术条件已基本成熟，地下管道物流将是一个具有划时代意义的研究与发展领域。     

Estimation of nonspecific lectin-mediated staining of glutaraldehyde-fixed cells

Summary Lectin-mediated stainings are widely used for the visualization of carbohydrate-carrying cellular components using the electron microscope. The use of glutarladehyde-fixed cells for these stainings introduces the possibility of low nonspecific lectin-trapping by the glutaraldehyde which coats the cells. This trapping was estimated by means of peroxidase-binding to human leukocytes,Tetrahymena pyriformis andEscherichia coli cells and was shown to be prevented by rinsing the glutaraldehyde-fixed cells in an amino acid solution before exposure to the lectin.     

基于交通流特征的可变信息板布局优化方法

为了引导交通流的合理分布并确定城市路网中可变信息板的布局方案,本文提出了一种基于路段交通流特征信息量评估的可变信息板布局优化方法。利用图论对城市路网进行描述,建立了基于信息熵的路段交通流特征信息量评估模型。并结合实际路网的拓扑结构特性,设计了可变信息板布局方案的初步生成方法。12节点的网络实例验证显示:该布局方法是有效的,且便于交通管理者所理解。同时,提出的交通流特征提取方法具有较强的应用性,可为道路规划与安全评估提供基础信息。     

Long‐term streamflow forecasting using artificial neural network based on preprocessing technique

Artificial neural network (ANN) combined with signal decomposing methods is effective for long‐term streamflow time series forecasting. ANN is a kind of machine learning method utilized widely for streamflow time series, and which performs well in forecasting nonstationary time series without the need of physical analysis for complex and dynamic hydrological processes. Most studies take multiple factors determining the streamflow as inputs such as rainfall. In this study, a long‐term streamflow forecasting model depending only on the historical streamflow data is proposed. Various preprocessing techniques, including empirical mode decomposition (EMD), ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT), are first used to decompose the streamflow time series into simple components with different timescale characteristics, and the relation between these components and the original streamflow at the next time step is analyzed by ANN. Hybrid models EMD‐ANN, EEMD‐ANN and DWT‐ANN are developed in this study for long‐term daily streamflow forecasting, and performance measures root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) indicate that the proposed EEMD‐ANN method performs better than EMD‐ANN and DWT‐ANN models, especially in high flow forecasting.     

The effect of global warming on mortality

There is a significant relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. In healthy individuals with no underlying co-morbid conditions, there is an efficient heat regulation system which enables the body to effectively handle thermal stress. However, in vulnerable groups, especially in elderly over the age of 65 years, infants and individuals with co-morbid cardiovascular and/or respiratory conditions, there is a deficiency in thermoregulation. When temperatures exceed a certain limit, being cold winter spells or heat waves, there is an increase in the number of deaths. In particular, it has been shown that at temperatures above 27 °C, the daily mortality rate increases more rapidly per degree rise compared to when it drops below 27 °C.This is especially of relevance with the current emergency of global warming. Besides the direct effect of temperature rises on human health, global warming will have a negative impact on primary producers and livestock, leading to malnutrition, which will in turn lead to a myriad of health related issues. This is further exacerbated by environmental pollution.Public health measures that countries should follow should include not only health-related information strategies aiming to reduce the exposure to heat for vulnerable individuals and the community, but improved urban planning and reduction in energy consumption, among many others. This will reduce the carbon footprint and help avert global warming, thus reducing mortality.