Effects of 4DVAR with multifold observed data on the typhoon track forecast

Effects of 4-dimension variational data assimilation (4DVAR) with multifold observed data on the typhoon track forecast are studied, by using the MM5V3 model, the RTTOVS-5 model and their adjoint models. The data used for assimilation include large-scale background fields data,bogus data, cloud-derived wind data, satellite inverse data,and high resolution infrared radiation sounder data (HIRS).There are 5 typhoon cases are used to perform the numerical experiments and assimilation experiments. The numerical results show that with 4DVAR the initial fields can be greatly improved and the initial typhoon structure can be clearly described.     

台风麦莎(0509)的数值模拟及结构演变特征分析

利用中尺度数值模式MM5,成功地模拟了0509号台风“麦莎”的路径、强度及其内部结构。根据模式输出的高分辨率结果分析了“麦莎”的动力和热力特征,包括环流结构、涡度、散度以及温湿场。结果表明：气旋低层的动力场及温湿场的明显不对称分布,加强了系统内部的上升运动;Q矢量散度辐合中心与强降水有很好的对应关系,500hPa高度场上强Q矢量散度辐合区域以及正涡度区对地面强降水中心有很好的指示作用。     

南海台风"悟空2000"生成及发展的数值模拟

应用NCAR/PSU中尺度非静力模式MM5模拟了南海台风"悟空2000"从一个热带扰动发展为强台风的过程。模拟结果表明,MM5模式能够很好地模拟出"悟空2000"台风的强度和最大风速,清晰显示出南海台风发展中具有的阶段性和爆发性。从水汽和位涡等诊断量的分析出发,分析了模拟的台风结构和台风眼生成的可能影响因素。敏感性试验结果显示,南海海面温度对台风发生发展有至关重要的作用:如果海表温度降低1℃,模拟的台风最大风速将降低近10m/s,风速达到台风级别(32.8m/s)的时间推迟约7个小时;如果海表温度降低2℃(SST仍高于26.5℃),该热带扰动将不能发展到台风的强度。     

Perspectives on the linkage between typhoon activity and global warming from recent research advances in paleotempestology

The recent increase in typhoon （tropical cyclone） activity has attracted great interest and induced heated debates over whether it is linked to global warming or only a return to an active phase of the well-known multi-decadal variability. Due to the short instrumental record, our knowledge is quite scarce on the complex processes and mechanism of typhoon generation, development, and evolution, especially for the rare but highly destructive super-typhoons. It is therefore very important to extend the time span of typhoon activity records. Paleotempestology, a young science that emerged in the early 1990s, studies past typhoon activity spanning several centuries to millennia before the instrumental era through the use of geological proxies and historical documentary records. This paper presents a brief review and synthesis on the major research advances and findings of paleotempestology with an emphasis on proxy technique development and applications. The methodology has been evolving from single geologic proxy to multi-proxy techniques by integrating microfossils, sedimentary organic elemental ratios, and stable isotopes, together with typical sedimentary textures and structures, for the diagnosis of storm deposits. A newly-developed proxy technique is employing oxygen isotopes preserved in growing laminae of tree rings, cave stalagmites, and reef corals to diagnose typhoon rainwater impacts. Historical documentary records have been systematically compiled and analyzed to reconstruct the history of typhoon activity in some regions. The extracted typhoon-proxy data show that there does not exist a simple linear relationship between typhoon frequency and Holocene climate （temperature） change. Typhoon activity should have a secular and constant linkage with ENSO fluctuations, in that more typhoons and hurricanes make landfalls in China, Central and North America during La Ni~↑na years than El Ni~↑no years. This finding is consistent with that derived from recent instrumental data. Shifts in positions of     

浙江地形对台风Khanun影响的数值试验和机理分析

以2005年严重影响我国华东地区的登陆台风Khanun为研究对象,利用MM5模式对其登陆浙江过程进行了数值模拟,通过模拟结果和实况的对比表明,模式对台风路径和降水的模拟是成功的,在台风移向移速、暴雨强度和落区上与实况十分吻合,但在台风强度模拟上则较实况偏小.在控制试验比较成功的基础上,本文还设计了3个敏感性试验,分析了浙江地形对台风路径、强度和降水的影响及其机理,它们分别为地形加倍、减半和无地形试验.试验结果表明,浙江地形对台风Khanun移动路径没有显著影响,这可能与浙江地形高度较低和环境场强引导气流有关.在降水强度上,浙江地形对暴雨的增幅作用十分显著,由地形强迫产生的降水和地形走向相一致.迎风坡由于地形动力抬升作用有利于上升运动加强,使得对流发展旺盛,降雨量增加,背风坡降雨量减少,浙江中北部沿海地区由于地形强迫产生了与台风环流同位向的扰动使得台风环流明显增强,形成暴雨中心.有无地形影响下的螺旋度对比显示,暴雨增幅区与低层正螺旋度差值区和高层负螺旋度差值区相对应,螺旋度差这种高低层耦合是触发和维持台风暴雨的动力机制,有利于台风螺旋结构的维持和强降水的发生.     

基于MODIS数据与数值模式的云垂直结构估计

为了利用MODIS数据与数值模式估测云的垂直结构,通过运行PSU/NCAR MM5非静力数值模式,以模式输出的温湿廓线与MOD06云顶气压产品插值得到云顶高度,并利用WR95探空分析算法判定云底高度;以CloudSat/CPR主动遥感数据为真值进行云垂直结构的对比试验.初步结果表明:结合MODIS云产品与中尺度数值模式...     

柱面共形阵列天线WSF算法DOA估计性能分析

天线是无线电通信及探测系统的重要组成部分,在未来航天飞行器、移动通信以及声纳领域中,共形阵列天线的广泛应用将极大地提高系统的整体性能。在建立三维柱面共形阵列天线导向矢量数学模型的基础上,将经典高分辨DOA(Direction Of Arrival)估计方法——WSF(Weighted Subspace Fitting)算法应用到柱面共形阵列天线中,并详细分析推导WSF算法在柱面共形阵列天线中的估计方差和克拉美-罗界(Cramer-Rao Bound,CRB),通过计算机仿真实验分析了WSF算法在柱面共形阵列天线中的估计效果,给出了WSF算法在柱面共形阵列天线中DOA估计性能的评估。实验表明WSF算法的DOA估计方差随着信噪比和阵元个数的增加逐渐达到CRB。     

Validation of AMSU-A measurements from two different calibrations in the lower stratosphere using COSMIC radio occultation data

GPS radio occultation data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate(COSMIC) mission were used to validate the measurements of the advanced microwave sounding unit-A(AMSU-A) in the lower stratosphere from different satellites. AMSU-A observations from two different calibrations—the pre-launch operational and post-launch simultaneous nadir overpass(SNO) calibrations—were compared to microwave brightness temperatures(Tb)simulated from COSMIC data. Observations from three satellites(NOAA-15,-16, and-18) were used in the comparison. The results showed that AMSU-A Tb measurements from both calibrations and from all three NOAA satellites were underestimated in the lower stratosphere,and that the biases were larger in polar winters, especially over the southern high latitudes. In comparison to operational calibration, the SNO-calibrated AMSU-A data produced much smaller biases relative to the COSMIC data.The improvement due to SNO calibration was quantified by a Ratio index, which measured the bias changes from operational to SNO calibrations relative to the biases between the operational-calibrated AMSU-A data and the COSMIC data. The Ratio values were 70 % for NOAA-15and [80 % for NOAA-18 and-16, indicating that the SNO calibration method significantly reduced AMSU-A biases and effectively improved AMSU-A data quality.     

Three-dimensional variational data assimilation implemented in numerical modeling for Wuhan torrential rain in July 1998

On July 20～21, 1998, a torrential rain with 24-hour rainfall of 286 mm occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China. In this study, a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system developed at the Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) along with conventional rawinsonde sounding and surface observation is used for modeling the heavy rain. It successfully incorporates observational data of temperature, humidity and wind, and provides an optimal analysis being in favor of the formation of heavy rain. The 24-hour rainfall predicted by the new scheme is 109 mm rather than 2.5 mm forecasted by control experiment. Furthermore, the forecasted accuracy of location and time-variation of hourly rainfall reproduced by this model is also improved. Keywords：variational data assimilation, torrential rain, numerical modeling.     

基于模型耦合的北部湾风暴潮增水与风浪模拟研究

台风风暴潮引发的增水和风浪效应是造成沿海低地灾害和损失的重要因素。本文设计了区域嵌套、波-流耦合的有限元数值模拟系统,对北部湾及附近海域风浪和增水过程进行有效模拟,精度达到应用要求。结果表明北部湾在台风影响下引起明显风浪和增水效应。台风中心风浪较小,仅1 m以内;而台风臂扫过海域风浪较大,可达9 m以上。最大增水海域出现在北部湾东侧靠近琼州海峡附近,可达2.5 m。风浪与增水叠加具有非线性效应,最大增水与最大风浪出现时间如与大潮高潮位相遇易形成超高水位,将对北部湾沿岸低地造成巨大淹没风险。本研究意在突破北部湾现有模型局限性,为进一步深化科学研究和工程应用提供基础数据。     

同化QuikSCAT资料对台风Vongfong(2002)数值模拟的影响

利用四维同化技术和中尺度数值模式MM5相结合对南海台风Vongfong(2002)的登陆过程进行了模拟,分析表明:同化Qu ikScat资料主要能使模拟的台风移动路径与实况更为接近。而台风的强度变化、降水量和降水分布的模拟与对流参数化方案有密切的关系,其中以Betts-M iller湿对流调整型方案最为合适。HFT试验模拟的台风路径、强度变化、暴雨分布和降水强度与实况一致。且试验结果较好地重现了Vongfong的一些异常特征,如路径突然折向北、移速先慢后快、近海强度加强、降雨量大、强暴雨中心落在台风西北侧等。利用非常规资料改善模式初始场,有逼真的物理过程,可以提高对台风登陆过程的预报。     

华南前汛期一次暴雨过程中的中尺度对流系统

通过对卫星云图观测到的MCS云团生消过程和实测降水资料的分析，发现1998年5月23—24日发生在华南的一次前汛期暴雨过程主要是由多个相继生消的MCS造成的。利用MM5模式成功地模拟出了其中两个主要MCS的发生发展。对模拟结果进行分析发现这两个MCS的发生发展是冷暖空气交汇的结果，MCS生成于暖空气而消亡于冷空气中。两个MCS的上升运动都非常强，最大辐散位于400hPa左右，垂直方向上表现为气旋性的涡柱，右侧低层有中尺度的低空急流，高空有强的西南风区。     

0414号台风"云娜"的基本特征与强降水成因分析

本文在概述0414号台风“云娜”基本情况的基础上,利用天气动力学方法,结合气象物理场诊断、气象卫星云图分析、多卜勒雷达回波和数值预报资料的分析,探讨了台风影响过程中强降水的主要成因,所提出的一些预报思路与线索对浙江台风暴雨的分析与预报有参考价值。     

降水条件下台风的定常运动和螺旋斑图

在牛顿第二运动定律的基础上,在垂直方向的运动方程中加入了扰动降水量一项,并讨论了加入这一项的合理性和物理意义.重点考虑了在降水条件下台风的运动特征,同时求得了三维定常流场中的水平速度,其中的三维流场构成了物理空间的一个非线性自治动力系统.研究表明:根据台风运动的定常解,台风的下层中心是低气压且是正垂直涡度(气旋式涡度)和水平辐合,上层中心是高气压(反气旋式涡度)和水平辐散.根据台风自治动力系统所获得的两个鞍-焦点很好地说明了台风的螺旋斑图,下层空气螺旋向内,引起台风中心附近的上升运动,上层空气螺旋向外引起台风外围的下沉运动,这些都与实际台风结构相似.文中阐明:在考虑降水量的影响后,台风仍然具有螺旋斑图的特征.     

地形起伏变化下的边界层参数化台风风场模型

对于登陆台风来说,采用平坦下垫面和单一的地表粗糙长度假设并不能与实际情况相吻合.为了更准确地模拟台风近地面风场,基于现有参数化台风风场模型,采用随地形变化的坐标系建模方法和高精度地形与土地覆盖资料,考虑了台风登陆过程中地形起伏和土地覆盖变化的影响.针对历史上影响广东省的3个台风案例,利用大量观测数据对比和验证了改进后的台风风场模型.对比结果表明:改进后的参数化台风风场模型对风速的模拟并没有表现出明显的系统偏差,并且能较好地模拟出台风登陆过程中风速风向的时程变化.     

用一维变分方法同化GMS-5反演湿度场及其在降水预报中的应用分析

在应用一维变分方法对GMS-5卫星资料反演的相对湿度场进行了同化分析试验的基础上,进一步分析了通过一维变分方法在MM5模式初始湿度场中融入GMS-5反演湿度场后,对降水预报的影响.分析试验结果表明,应用一维变分方法同化GMS-5反演相对湿度场后所得到的分析场,其均方根误差(rm se)在7个标准等压面上都比背景场要明显减小.均方根误差值在250 hPa下降幅度最大,达到7.1,这相当于12-h预报场rm se下降了48%;下降幅度最小的等压面高度是925 hPa,也达到了1.2,相当于12-h预报场rm se下降了15%.背景湿度场高湿区通常呈带状分布,普遍平滑了中尺度信息.运用一维变分方法融入了卫星信息后,分析场不仅明显改善了背景场湿区偏湿、干区偏干的现象,同时也很好地揭示出了三维湿度场的中尺度细微结构.个例分析表明,将一维变分同化后的GMS-5反演湿度场作为MM5模式的初始湿度场,与直接用NCEP资料的预报结果相比,MM5模式预报的降水强度、降水范围和降水强中心位置均有较明显的改善,更接近于实况观测.     

Quantitative analysis of torrential rainfall associated with typhoon landfall： A case study of typhoon Haitang （2005）

A quantitative analysis of torrential rainfall associated with typhoon Haitang (2005) is carried out using a modified moist ageostrophic Q vector and data from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. Four major factors determining the ascending motion associated with torrential rainfall have been studied: large-scale and convective condensational heating, topographic lifting and friction. The results show that the convective condensational heating plays a major role in the torrential rainfall process and the large-scale condensational heating is secondary before the landfall of typhoon Haitang, and vice versa after the landfall. The topographic lifting affects the formation of rainfall whereas the topographic friction has important impacts on torrential rainfall after the landfall. The rainfall amounts forced by topographic friction and lifting have similar horizontal distributions but the magnitudes of the former are 2－3 times larger than those of the latter. The rainfall amounts forced by topography (lifting and friction) and modified moist ageostrophic Q vector have different horizontal distributions and the magnitudes of the former are 2－5 times larger than those of the latter. Synthetic analysis shows that the typhoon rainfall may be motivated by modified moist ageostrophic Q vector and enhanced further by the topographic effects.     

自由漂浮空间机器人动力学建模与仿真研究

空间机器人相比固定基座机器人,增加了6个自由度,且空间机器人的机械臂与基座之间存在动力学耦合问题。因此,其动力学建模较为复杂。针对自由漂浮空间机器人系统进行了运动学和动力学方程的推导,给出了动力学方程求解的详细算法,并采用Spacedyn工具箱对动力学模型进行了数值仿真。仿真结果表明建立的动力学模型可方便的进行自由漂浮空间机器人的运动分析。     

焦化苯中噻吩在改性ZSM-5分子筛上吸附动力学研究

本文系统地研究了用改性 ZSM- 5分子筛吸附脱除焦化苯中噻吩过程动力学 ,测定了池式吸附曲线 ,提出了可以较好地描述苯 -噻吩 - ZSM- 5吸附体系的动力学模型 ,模型中考虑了大孔扩散、表面扩散和吸附 -反应阻力等吸附过程 ,并通过实验数据求得了大孔扩散系数、表面扩散系数和吸附速度常数等吸附动力学参数与温度的关系。在该吸附过程中 ,大孔扩散、表面扩散和吸附反应过程都起着重要作用。     

基于改进GMDH的科技成果中试转化系统模型构建

基于科技成果中试转化运行原理,搭建中试系统机理模型,利用改进GMDH构建相应数学模型。改进GMDH将含有回归项线性相关检测的快速递归算法（FRA）代替传统最小二乘（OLS）进行GMDH多层建模的部分多项式求解,使用初始变量添加法避免有效神经元过早丢失。以改进的GMDH对上海市中试转化统计数据进行建模及仿真实验,结果表明,所建模型比传统GMDH模型精度高,泛化能力强。