Evolution of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field since the Maunder minimum

The most striking feature of the Sun's magnetic field is its cyclic behaviour. The number of sunspots, which are dark regions of strong magnetic field on the Sun's surface, varies with a period of about 11 years. Superposed on this cycle are secular changes that occur on timescales of centuries and events like the Maunder minimum in the second half of the seventeenth century, when there were very few sunspots. A part of the Sun's magnetic field reaches out from the surface into interplanetary space, and it was recently discovered that the average strength of this interplanetary field has doubled in the past 100 years. There has hitherto been no clear explanation for this doubling. Here we present a model describing the long-term evolution of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field, which reproduces the doubling of the interplanetary field. The model indicates that there is a direct connection between the length of the sunspot cycle and the secular variations.     

The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 caused by meridional plasma flow variations

Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface varies periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum characterized by a very weak polar magnetic field and an unusually large number of days without sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions generated by a dynamo mechanism that recreates the solar polar field mediated through plasma flows. Here we report results from kinematic dynamo simulations which demonstrate that a fast meridional flow in the first half of a cycle, followed by a slower flow in the second half, reproduces both characteristics of the minimum of sunspot cycle 23. Our model predicts that, in general, very deep minima are associated with weak polar fields. Sunspots govern the solar radiative energy and radio flux, and, in conjunction with the polar field, modulate the solar wind, the heliospheric open flux and, consequently, the cosmic ray flux at Earth.     

Rossby waves on the Sun as revealed by solar 'hills'

It is a long-standing puzzle that the Sun's photosphere--its visible surface--rotates differentially, with the equatorial regions rotating faster than the poles. It has been suggested that waves analogous to terrestrial Rossby waves, and known as r-mode oscillations, could explain the Sun's differential rotation: Rossby waves are seen in the oceans as large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) variations of sea-surface height (5-cm-high waves), which propagate slowly either east or west (they could take tens of years to cross the Pacific Ocean). Calculations show that the solar r-mode oscillations have properties that should be strongly constrained by differential rotation. Here we report the detection of 100-m-high 'hills' in the photosphere, spaced uniformly over the Sun's surface with a spacing of (8.7 +/- 0.6) x 10(4) km. If convection under the photosphere is organized by the r-modes, the observed corrugated photosphere is a probable surface manifestation of these solar oscillations.     

Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years

Direct observations of sunspot numbers are available for the past four centuries, but longer time series are required, for example, for the identification of a possible solar influence on climate and for testing models of the solar dynamo. Here we report a reconstruction of the sunspot number covering the past 11,400 years, based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. We combine physics-based models for each of the processes connecting the radiocarbon concentration with sunspot number. According to our reconstruction, the level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional, and the previous period of equally high activity occurred more than 8,000 years ago. We find that during the past 11,400 years the Sun spent only of the order of 10% of the time at a similarly high level of magnetic activity and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode. Although the rarity of the current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.     

Lons-term variations of solar activity

Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram we analyzed two sunspot series： the one over the past 11000 years at the 10-year interval based upon the survey data of ^14C concentration in tree-rings, reconstructed by Solanki et al.; and the sunspot number over the past 7000 years, derived from geomagnetic variations by Usoskin et al. We found the periods and quasi-periods in solar activity, such as about 225, 352, 441,522 and 561 a, and near 1000 and 2000 a. An approach of wavelet transform was applied to check the two sunspot time series, with emphasis on investigating time-varying characteristics in the long-term fluctuations of solar activity. The results show that the lengths and amplitudes of the periods have changed with time, and large variations have taken place during some periods.     

气候暖化对台湾水文环境的冲击

自十九世纪中期起就开始发展的全球暖化现象,已使北半球平均气温上升的幅度接近摄氏一度.而伴随全球暖化的结果之一就是全球气候及水文循环正在急遽的改变,各地降雨的强度及分布型态因应气温的上升及气候极端变化而有明显的变化.以台湾地区为例,回顾百年来台湾降雨型态的变化趋势,讨论气候暖化对近五十年来台湾水文环境(地表水、地下水)所造成的影响.其中最显著的趋势为:南北降雨的差异性扩大,降雨型态朝极端化发展.这些变化趋势对未来水资源的调配与运用产生不利的影响.     

Long-term variations of solar activity

Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram we analyzed two sunspot series: the one over the past 11000 years at the 10-year interval based upon the survey data of 14C concentration in tree-rings, recon- structed by Solanki et al.; and the sunspot number over the past 7000 years, derived from geomagnetic variations by Usoskin et al. We found the periods and quasi-periods in solar activity, such as about 225, 352, 441, 522 and 561 a, and near 1000 and 2000 a. An approach of wavelet transform was applied to check the two sunspot time series, with emphasis on investigating time-varying characteristics in the long-term fluctuations of solar activity. The results show that the lengths and amplitudes of the periods have changed with time, and large variations have taken place during some periods.     

Downward pumping of magnetic flux as the cause of filamentary structures in sunspot penumbrae

The structure of a sunspot is determined by the local interaction between magnetic fields and convection near the Sun's surface. The dark central umbra is surrounded by a filamentary penumbra, whose complicated fine structure has only recently been revealed by high-resolution observations. The penumbral magnetic field has an intricate and unexpected interlocking-comb structure and some field lines, with associated outflows of gas, dive back down below the solar surface at the outer edge of the spot. These field lines might be expected to float quickly back to the surface because of magnetic buoyancy, but they remain submerged. Here we show that the field lines are kept submerged outside the spot by turbulent, compressible convection, which is dominated by strong, coherent, descending plumes. Moreover, this downward pumping of magnetic flux explains the origin of the interlocking-comb structure of the penumbral magnetic field, and the behaviour of other magnetic features near the sunspot.     

Alfvénic waves with sufficient energy to power the quiet solar corona and fast solar wind

Energy is required to heat the outer solar atmosphere to millions of degrees (refs 1, 2) and to accelerate the solar wind to hundreds of kilometres per second (refs 2-6). Alfvén waves (travelling oscillations of ions and magnetic field) have been invoked as a possible mechanism to transport magneto-convective energy upwards along the Sun's magnetic field lines into the corona. Previous observations of Alfvénic waves in the corona revealed amplitudes far too small (0.5?km?s(-1)) to supply the energy flux (100-200?W?m(-2)) required to drive the fast solar wind or balance the radiative losses of the quiet corona. Here we report observations of the transition region (between the chromosphere and the corona) and of the corona that reveal how Alfvénic motions permeate the dynamic and finely structured outer solar atmosphere. The ubiquitous outward-propagating Alfvénic motions observed have amplitudes of the order of 20?km?s(-1) and periods of the order of 100-500?s throughout the quiescent atmosphere (compatible with recent investigations), and are energetic enough to accelerate the fast solar wind and heat the quiet corona.     

评孙隆基《中国文化的深层结构》

本文对孙隆基先生<中国文化的深层结构>作了新的评价.文章认为,我国学术界对孙先生这一著作的评价都有一定的合理性.但是,从另一角度,我们可以看到孙先生这一著作还存在以下六个方面的问题:第一,孙先生的"结构说"并不妥当;第二,研究方法也不科学;第三,研究的目的也是比较渺小的;第四,孙先生作为历史学家,还没有认识到存在主义违背自然之道的不现实之处,对西方的结构主义也没有深入的认识;第五,孙先生对"人欲"和"仁"的理解也不准确;第六,孙先生"确立自我"的主张也有相当的局限性.因此,孙先生并没有真正揭示中国文化的深层结构,他的观点其实是不能成立的.从图书馆学的角度看,本文还可以为高校在读学生提供一种阅读思路.     

An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate

The thermal structure and composition of the atmosphere is determined fundamentally by the incoming solar irradiance. Radiation at ultraviolet wavelengths dissociates atmospheric molecules, initiating chains of chemical reactions-specifically those producing stratospheric ozone-and providing the major source of heating for the middle atmosphere, while radiation at visible and near-infrared wavelengths mainly reaches and warms the lower atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atmospheric structure, as well as surface temperature, and it follows that the response of the atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance depends on the spectrum. Daily measurements of the solar spectrum between 0.2?μm and 2.4?μm, made by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite since April 2004, have revealed that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding. This reduction was partially compensated in the total solar output by an increase in radiation at visible wavelengths. Here we show that these spectral changes appear to have led to a significant decline from 2004 to 2007 in stratospheric ozone below an altitude of 45?km, with an increase above this altitude. Our results, simulated with a radiative-photochemical model, are consistent with contemporaneous measurements of ozone from the Aura-MLS satellite, although the short time period makes precise attribution to solar effects difficult. We also show, using the SIM data, that solar radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. Currently there is insufficient observational evidence to validate the spectral variations observed by SIM, or to fully characterize other solar cycles, but our findings raise the possibility that the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.     

Periodicity of sunspot activity in the modern solar cycles

Sunspot number, sunspot area and sunspot unit area are usually used to show sunspot activity. In this paper,periodicity of sunspot activity of modern solar cycles has been investigated through analyzing the monthly mean values of the three indices in the time interval of May 1874 to May 2004 by use of the wavelet transform. Their global power spectra and local power spectra are given while the statistical tests of these spectra are taken into account. The main results are (1) the local wavelet power spectrum of the sunspot number seems like that of the sunspot area, indicating that the periodicity of the both indices is similar. The local power spectrum of the sunspot unit area resembles the local power spectra of the previous two indices, but looks more complicated. (2) the possible periods in sunspot activity are about 10.6 (or 10.9 years for the sunspot unit area), 31,and 42 years, and the period of about 10.6 years is statistically significant in the considered time. For the periods of about 31 and 42 years, their power peaks are under the 95% confidence level line but over the mean red-noise spectral line, and for the other rest periods, their power peaks are even under the mean red-noise spectral line, which are statistically insignificant. (3) the local power of the three periods is higher in the late stage than in the early stage of the considered time. (4) the period characteristics of the three indices, shown in the global power spectra and the local power spectra, are similar but there is difference in detail.     

High-frequency acoustic waves are not sufficient to heat the solar chromosphere

One of the main unanswered questions in solar physics is why the Sun's outer atmosphere is hotter than its surface. Theory predicts abundant production of high-frequency (10-50 mHz) acoustic waves in subsurface layers of the Sun, and such waves are believed by many to constitute the dominant heating mechanism of the chromosphere (the lower part of the outer solar atmosphere) in non-magnetic regions. Such high-frequency waves are difficult to detect because of high-frequency disturbances in Earth's atmosphere (seeing) and other factors. Here we report the detection of high-frequency waves, and we use numerical simulations to show that the acoustic energy flux of these waves is too low, by a factor of at least ten, to balance the radiative losses in the solar chromosphere. Acoustic waves therefore cannot constitute the dominant heating mechanism of the solar chromosphere.     

太阳活动峰年和谷年期间黑子群与耀斑的统计分析

基于NOAA/SWPC公布的太阳活动数据,我们选取第24太阳活动峰年附近的12个连续月份(2011年7月至2012年6月)和第23太阳活动周谷年附近的12个连续月份(2005年7月至2006年6月),统计了这两段时间中太阳黑子群和耀斑的活动规律,并根据时间、黑子群分布纬度、寿命和磁场类型等对峰年和谷年进行了详细分析和比较,主要结论如下所述.(1)黑子群数随时间的变化在峰年和谷年均比较随机,峰年期间黑子数比谷年增多1.5倍左右.耀斑爆发与黑子群活动具有良好的相关性,但峰年期间存在某个月份耀斑数很少的现象,而谷年期间存在某个月份耀斑数集中增多的现象.(2)无论峰年还是谷年,δ类型黑子群的耀斑产率(耀斑总数与黑子群总数之比)最大,但β型黑子群产生的耀斑爆发最多.耀斑产率与磁场类型有密切关系,但与其所处太阳活动周中的阶段无关.(3)黑子群和耀斑的纬度分布的南北不对称性,以X级耀斑最为显著.峰年较谷年的耀斑数增加主要集中在C级和M级.(4)耀斑产率同黑子群寿命具有良好的相关性,但黑子群的数目同它们的寿命之间没有明显的规律.     

黄土高原环境恶化的自然背景研究

根据黄土高原自然环境的演变规律 ,认为从千年尺度的季风气候变化趋势来看 ,目前仍然处在一个延续 31 0 0多年的相对干旱低温时期 .黄土高原属于环境敏感带 ,当前显著的气候干暖化发展趋势 ,以及与之相关的各种灾害性变化 ,是当地资源环境对于全球变暖的响应造成的 .数十年来对于水、土和生物资源的过度开发 ,是造成黄土高原及其毗邻荒漠草原地区广泛的沙漠化、土壤侵蚀、河水断流、湖泊干涸的直接原因     

从MWP看20世纪全球变暖

气候变暖已引起全球的广泛关注,正确的认识当前的气候变化已成为亟待解决的问题．目前的主流观点虽然认为近几十年的升温是由人类活动导致的,但许多学者发现MWP时期的气温与现代相当甚至更暖．结合国内外学者对MWP的研究,对比了MWP与现代暖期的温暖程度,指出20世纪暖期并不是过去千年最暖的世纪,现代升温可能只是气候冷暖波动中的一次自然现象,是uA过后的正常回暖．因此对MWP的认识对于人们深入认识当前全球变暖的性质和原因,具有十分重要的意义．     

A lower limit for atmospheric carbon dioxide levels 3.2 billion years ago

The quantification of greenhouse gases present in the Archaean atmosphere is critical for understanding the evolution of atmospheric oxygen, surface temperatures and the conditions for life on early Earth. For instance, it has been argued that small changes in the balance between two potential greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, may have dictated the feedback cycle involving organic haze production and global cooling. Climate models have focused on carbon dioxide as the greenhouse gas responsible for maintaining above-freezing surface temperatures during a time of low solar luminosity. However, the analysis of 2.75-billion-year (Gyr)-old palaeosols--soil samples preserved in the geologic record--have recently provided an upper constraint on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels well below that required in most climate models to prevent the Earth's surface from freezing. This finding prompted many to look towards methane as an additional greenhouse gas to satisfy climate models. Here we use model equilibrium reactions for weathering rinds on 3.2-Gyr-old river gravels to show that the presence of iron-rich carbonate relative to common clay minerals requires a minimum partial pressure of carbon dioxide several times higher than present-day values. Unless actual carbon dioxide levels were considerably greater than this, climate models predict that additional greenhouse gases would still need to have a role in maintaining above-freezing surface temperatures.     

第23周太阳活动不对性分析

运用了二个太阳活动指数,即太阳黑子群数和黑子面积来分析第23周太阳活动的不对称性,文中引进了一个新概念“累计的不对称性”来描述太阳活动的不对称性分布,进一步通过计算两个半球上太阳活动指数的实际概率说明了太阳活动的不对称性。结果显示：（1）在第23周开始的前6年左右,太阳活动存在微弱的不对称性;（2）不同太阳活动现象或指数的不对称性,并不发生在同一活动周的同一时期。     

Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change

Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.     

Analyzing global trends of different cloud types and their potential impacts on climate by using the ISCCP D2 dataset

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology roject (ISCCP) D2 dataset is used to study the global distribution of low, middle and high cloud amounts and their rends of 1983-2001. Evidences have shown that global arming has accelerated over the past 20 a and the 1990s as the warmest decade in the instrumental records since 861. Trends of various clouds amounts over this period are nalyzed by employing the linear regression method. The esults show that global mean total cloud amounts, in general,have tended to reduce over the past 20 a. But there are lightly increasing by about 2% before 1987 and decreasing y about 4% since then. Cloudiness trends of both low and igh clouds decrease while increase for the middle cloud.And there exist remarkable discrepancies in different regions.The preliminary analyses suggest that it is likely that the loud change occurring over the past 20 a is a positive feedback to global warming.