Near-field postseismic deformation along the rupture of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and its implications

At first time, we observed the postseismic deformation, which actually is a kind of creep after slip, along the intra-plate active fault associated with the Wenchuan earthquake. To understand the near-field postseismic deformation following 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province of China, we compared the fault scarp or flexure scarp profiles measured in different campaigns. Our result shows that among total 19 observation sites, on 13 sites (68% of 19) fault scarps fall back with an average about 9.7% decrease; on 5 sites (26% of 19) fault scarps present no change; and on one site (6% of 19) fault scarp continues to uplift with 12.8% increase. The variety of fault scarp we observed results mainly from near-field postseismic deformation, after slip occurred in shallow. Based on our observations, the following are demonstrated: except for the southwestern end near Yingxiu Town where coseismic slip deficit and some elastic energy residue exist there, fall back (68%) or non-changing (26%) of fault scarp shows energy balance or energy deficit due to overthrust, implying that the likelihood of occurrence of strong aftershocks of ≥ M7 becomes very small in these energy-released areas. Moreover, we suggest that a minimum of 10% error due to near-field postseismic deformation should be considered when evaluating the magnitude of historic and paleoearthquake or slip rate based on the fault scarp dis-placement, even though the error caused by erosion has been accounted already.     

Stress changes from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin

On 12 May 2008, the devastating magnitude 7.9 (Wenchuan) earthquake struck the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau, collapsing buildings and killing thousands in major cities aligned along the western Sichuan basin in China. After such a large-magnitude earthquake, rearrangement of stresses in the crust commonly leads to subsequent damaging earthquakes. The mainshock of the 12 May earthquake ruptured with as much as 9 m of slip along the boundary between the Longmen Shan and Sichuan basin, and demonstrated the complex strike-slip and thrust motion that characterizes the region. The Sichuan basin and surroundings are also crossed by other active strike-slip and thrust faults. Here we present calculations of the coseismic stress changes that resulted from the 12 May event using models of those faults, and show that many indicate significant stress increases. Rapid mapping of such stress changes can help to locate fault sections with relatively higher odds of producing large aftershocks.     

汶川地震驱动的隆升、剥蚀作用与龙门山地貌生长——以映秀红椿沟为例

汶川(Ms 8.0)地震驱动的构造抬升作用和滑坡、泥石流剥蚀作用如何影响龙门山的地貌生长是目前争论的焦点。作者以位于汶川地震震中位置的映秀红椿沟泥石流为例,利用野外实测资料、航片和数字高程资料,开展了红椿沟流域汶川地震驱动的构造抬升与滑坡、泥石流的表面侵蚀过程及其对龙门山地貌生长约束方面的定量研究,获得以下初步认识:(1)红椿沟位于汶川地震震中区的高山峡谷,发震断裂——北川断裂从该沟切过。(2)汶川地震触发的同震滑坡体积达3.800 1×106 m3,是震前滑坡量的3倍。(3)2010-08-13和2010-08-18强降雨形成的震后泥石流体积为0.705×106 m3,表明震后强降雨使同震滑坡量的20%转化为泥石流。(4)红椿沟泥石流将0.485×106 m3固体物质输入岷江河道(主河),导致河道变窄、河床升高、河床比降增大。(5)冲入河道量与同震滑坡量之间的转化率约为13%,冲入河道量与泥石流量之间的转化率为70%。(6)在红椿沟流域同震的滑坡体积(3.800 1×106 m3)小于同震的构造抬升体积(6.67×106 m3),仅有约57%的构造抬升量转化为滑坡量,表明以逆冲-走滑作用为特征的汶川地震所导致的构造抬升量大于滑坡量,将使龙门山地貌产生新的抬升和生长。     

Preliminary results pertaining to coseismic displacement and preseismic strain accumulation of the Lushan M S7.0 earthquake, as reflected by GPS surveying

This paper presents the coseismic displacement and preseismic deformation fields of the Lushan M _S7.0 earthquake that occurred on April 20, 2013. The results are based on GPS observations along the Longmenshan fault and within its vicinity. The coseismic displacement and preseismic GPS results indicate that in the strain release of this earthquake, the thrust rupture is dominant and the laevorotation movement is secondary. Furthermore, we infer that any possible the rupture does not reach the earth’s surface, and the seismogenic fault is most likely one fault to the east of the Guanxian-Anxian fault. Some detailed results are obtainable. (1) The southern segment of the Longmenshan fault is locked preceding the Lushan earthquake. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the strain accumulation rate in the southeast direction accelerates in the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake, and the angle between the principal compressional strain and the seismogenic fault indicates that a sinistral deformation background in the direction of the seismogenic fault precedes the Lushan earthquake. Therefore, it is evident that the Wenchuan M _S8.0 earthquake accelerated the pregnancy of the Lushan earthquake. (2) The coseismic displacements reflected by GPS data are mainly located in a region that is 230 km (NW direction) × 100 km (SW direction), and coseismic displacements larger than 10 mm lie predominantly in a 100-km region (NW direction). (3) On a large scale, the coseismic displacement shows thrust characteristics, but the associated values are remarkably small in the near field (within 70 km) of the earthquake fault. Meanwhile, the thrust movement in this 70-km region does not correspond with the attenuation characteristics of the strain release, indicating that the rupture of this earthquake does not reach the earth’s surface. (4) The laevorotation movements are remarkable in the 50-km region, which is located in the hanging wall that is close to the earthquake fault, and the corresponding values in this case correlate with the attenuation characteristics of the strain release.     

The maximum coseismic vertical surface displacement and surface deformation pattern accompanying the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The amount of coseismic deformation and its distribution of the Wenchuan earthquake provide important scientific bases for revealing the mechanisms of earthquake preparation and characterizing the rupture propagation of the Wenchuan earthquake. The previous studies have indicated that the earthquake ruptured the middle-to-north segment of the Longmenshan central fault and the middle segment of the Longmenshan range-front fault, which are characterized by two surface rupture zones of 240 km and 90 km in length, respectively. Based on the pre-earthquake information and photos of landforms and buildings obtained through ge-ologic and geomorphic survey of the area around Shaba Village of Beichuan County, Sichuan Province and the extensive interview with local villagers, we measured the displacements of the major terrain features and the dislocated buildings by total station instruments and differential GPS and obtained the maximum vertical displacement of 9±0.5 m and right-lateral displacement of 2±0.5 m around the Zou’s house in Shaba Village. Though the near-surface deformation exhibits a normal faulting around Shaba Village, the dynamic environment has not changed on the whole. The NW wall of the fault uplifted but without gravity gliding as normally occurring on the hanging wall of a normal fault, which proves that the 9±0.5 m displacement should be the maximum coseismic vertical displacement of the May 12, 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.     

探讨与汶川地震有关的焦点科学问题

基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论和新划定的3.6版汶川地震区,再次探讨了与2008年汶川地震有关的若干科学问题,包括该震是否为主震?该震、2013年芦山MS7.0地震、2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震之间关系?该震是否存在复发周期?该震发生前是否存在显著物理前兆?该震与紫坪铺水库之间关系?研究结果表明:汶川地震并非汶川地震区当前地震周期主震,未来将发生MS8.0~8.3标志性地震;2013年芦山地震和2017年九寨沟地震有直接联系且均与汶川地震密切相关,两者同为下一次标志性地震前的两次显著预震;汶川地震区标志性地震及其未来主震是否存在复发周期目前尚不能作出明确判断;在汶川地震前,由于自1995年12月18日后其震源体的物理状态长期保持近似不变,故不可能观测到显著的中长期与短临物理前兆;紫坪铺水库对汶川地震孕育过程的影响很小,可以忽略。     

Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer

Stress changes in the crust due to an earthquake can hasten the failure of neighbouring faults and induce earthquake sequences in some cases. The 1999 Hector Mine earthquake in southern California (magnitude 7.1) occurred only 20 km from, and 7 years after, the 1992 Landers earthquake (magnitude 7.3). This suggests that the Hector Mine earthquake was triggered in some fashion by the earlier event. But uncertainties in the slip distribution and rock friction properties associated with the Landers earthquake have led to widely varying estimates of both the magnitude and sign of the resulting stress change that would be induced at the location of the Hector Mine hypocentre-with estimates varying from -1.4 bar (ref. 6) to +0.5 bar (ref. 7). More importantly, coseismic stress changes alone cannot satisfactorily explain the delay of 7 years between the two events. Here we present the results of a three-dimensional viscoelastic model that simulates stress transfer from the ductile lower crust and upper mantle to the brittle upper crust in the 7 years following the Landers earthquake. Using viscoelastic parameters that can reproduce the observed horizontal surface deformation following the Landers earthquake, our calculations suggest that lower-crustal or upper-mantle flow can lead to postseismic stress increases of up to 1-2 bar at the location of the Hector Mine hypocentre during this time period, contributing to the eventual occurrence of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. These results attest to the importance of considering viscoelastic processes in the assessment of seismic hazard.     

Seismic waves increase permeability

Earthquakes have been observed to affect hydrological systems in a variety of ways--water well levels can change dramatically, streams can become fuller and spring discharges can increase at the time of earthquakes. Distant earthquakes may even increase the permeability in faults. Most of these hydrological observations can be explained by some form of permeability increase. Here we use the response of water well levels to solid Earth tides to measure permeability over a 20-year period. At the time of each of seven earthquakes in Southern California, we observe transient changes of up to 24 degrees in the phase of the water level response to the dilatational volumetric strain of the semidiurnal tidal components of wells at the Pi?on Flat Observatory in Southern California. After the earthquakes, the phase gradually returns to the background value at a rate of less than 0.1 degrees per day. We use a model of axisymmetric flow driven by an imposed head oscillation through a single, laterally extensive, confined, homogeneous and isotropic aquifer to relate the phase response to aquifer properties. We interpret the changes in phase response as due to changes in permeability. At the time of the earthquakes, the permeability at the site increases by a factor as high as three. The permeability increase depends roughly linearly on the amplitude of seismic-wave peak ground velocity in the range of 0.21-2.1 cm s(-1). Such permeability increases are of interest to hydrologists and oil reservoir engineers as they affect fluid flow and might determine long-term evolution of hydrological and oil-bearing systems. They may also be interesting to seismologists, as the resulting pore pressure changes can affect earthquakes by changing normal stresses on faults.     

全球气候变暖和人类活动对地下水温度的影响

以吉林中部平原区为例,通过对123眼地下水观测井水温多年观测数据的整理分析,论述了孔隙潜水、孔隙承压水和白垩系孔隙裂隙承压水温度的多年变化特征.采用灰色父联度分析法分析了影响地下水温度变化的主要因素,计算了各含水层地下水温度与地下水埋深、气温、降水量之间的关联度.研究结果表明,从20世纪80年代初到2001年的20 a间,3个含水层的地下水温均呈上升趋势.各含水层水温上升的主要因素不同,孔隙潜水和孔隙承压水温度上升变化的主要原因是全球气候变暖;白垩系孔隙裂隙承压水温度上升则主要是由该含水层被强烈开采、水位大幅下降、上部潜水补给作用加剧所致.     

Interseismic and coseismic displacements of the Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake inferred from leveling measurements

By using precise leveling data observed between 1985 and 2010 across the south section of the Longmenshan fault zone, and eliminating the coseismic displacements caused by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake, the interseismic vertical deformation field was obtained. The result shows that the Lushan region, located between the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault （front range of the Long- menshan fault） and the Xinkaidian fault （south section of the Dayi fault）, is situated in the intersection zone of positive and negative vertical deformation gradient zones, indicating that this zone was locked within 25 years before the Lushan earthquake. Based on leveling data across the rupture zone surveyed between 2010 and 2013, and by eliminating the vertical deformation within 3 years before the earthquake, the coseismic vertical displacement was derived. The coseismic vertical displacement for the benchmark DD35, which is closest to the epicenter, is up to 198.4 mm （with respect to MY165A）. The coseismic dis- placement field revealed that the northwest region （hanging wall） moved upwards in comparison with the southeastern region （foot wall）, suggesting that the seismogenic fault mainly underwent thrust faulting. By comparing the coseismic and interseismic vertical deformation fields, it was found that the mechanisms of this earthquake are consistent with the elastic rebound theory; the elastic strain energy （displacement deficit） accumulated before the Lu- shan earthquake was released during this quake.     

汶川地震滑坡详细编录及其与全球其他地震滑坡事件对比

 汶川地震滑坡编录结果表明,2008年5月12日汶川地震触发了197481处滑坡,面积约为1160km²,大致分布在一个面积约1.1x10⁵km²的区域内,是当前汶川地震滑坡最全面详细的编录成果,也是有记录以来单次地震事件触发滑坡数量最多的记录。其中196007处滑坡(占滑坡总数量的99.25%),面积为1150.622km²(占总滑坡面积的99.19%),分布在一个面积为44031km²、以映秀—北川地表破裂为近似中心的近椭圆形区域内。分析这196007处滑坡面积与滑坡数量的幂律关系,结果表明,面积在1x10⁴—1x10⁶m2之间的滑坡,滑坡面积与滑坡数量累加之间的幂律关系式可表示为lgN(A)=-2.0745A+13,判定系数R²=0.9931,表明该滑坡面积区间内滑坡面积与滑坡数量之间具有良好的幂律关系。对比结果表明,汶川地震滑坡影响区面积略高于全球其他地震事件滑坡影响区面积的上包络线。汶川地震滑坡编录成果为后续汶川地震滑坡相关科学研究提供了重要的基础数据。     

地下含水层热储井位置选择和布置

地下含水层热储开发技术面临一系列问题,寻找适合热储用的含水层和合理布置热储井是解决问题的第一步.综合考虑含水层的地质结构特征,适合热储的含水层应该是承压含水层,热储应该采用同层方式.单个热储井的影响半径可以通过热平衡和热扩散原理求得.合理布置热储井间的相对位置,可以有效抵消原有地下水的流动以及渗流系数不一致的影响.利用井之间的渗流耦合作用,在热储井之间布置调节井,主动控制热储水的波及范围,可以实现热储井布置的相对"紧凑".     

SAGD井微压裂储层渗透率变化规律研究

对超稠油SAGD井储层进行微压裂能够快速建立上下水平井连通,提高启动效率。为了掌握微压裂储层渗透率演变规律及评价微压裂效果,通过实验获取了新疆风城不同物性油砂储层的孔渗参数,研究了油砂的孔隙体积、各向异性及温度对渗透率的影响。实验结果表明,无论是原位还是剪切扩容后的状态,风城陆相油砂的绝对渗透率及水的有效渗透率随孔隙度或体应变的变化均遵从Kozeny Carman或Kozeny Poiseuille方程;同时,该油砂绝对渗透率为水平方向大于垂直方向,而水的有效渗透率则为垂直方向大于水平方向。同时,微压裂的注液温度对水的有效渗透率的影响可以忽略。在此基础上从机理出发探讨了微压裂和注蒸汽循环阶段的渗流差异,进一步运用有限元模拟手段,通过案例计算证实了微压裂模拟过程应采用水的有效渗透率。     

预测裂缝型有水气藏早期水侵动态的新方法

四川盆地气藏地质情况复杂,储集层具有明显的低孔低渗特征,非均质性强,裂缝发育程度差异较大,气井产量大幅降低并出现水淹现象。利用气藏开发早期的试采数据来研究水体的性质及早期水侵动态,基于物质平衡原理建立了水侵动态预测模型,通过计算水侵强度系数得出气藏的水侵动态指标,避免了直接计算水侵量,运用非线性最优化方法进行求解并给出了相应的解法。针对实际气藏,利用该模型计算了反映水侵动态的各项指标。研究表明,该方法可以准确获得非均质气藏水体性质和水侵动态,其结果对提出早期控水措施很有帮助。对有水气藏的开发中实施早期控水措施具有重要的实际意义。     

汶川地震后的思考

2008年5月12日四川省汶川县发生8.0级地震,这是自1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震后,中国发生的最大地震.它震级高、强度大、余震多,范围广、次生灾害大、伤亡人数多、经济损失大,给汶川地震灾区带来深重的灾难.我国西南及周边地区地处欧亚板块与印度板块之间,近年来地震活动频繁.2008年5月12日青藏高原东向挤压,导致龙门山冲断带向东南逆冲,撞击四川盆地,引发汶川8.0级大地震.人类对客观世界、自然环境及发展规律还认识不够;特别是对地震机理、机制,地球板块运动,以及深达数十、数百km的震源及其活动规律等,远未认识.必须加强对地震机理、机制、地球板块运动、震源活动规律及趋势的探讨、认识与科学研究;逐步提高对地震的预警与预报,预防地震及地质灾害.贯彻执行防震减灾法律条令,切实做好防震减灾及灾后重建工作.保护人民生命和财产安全,保障社会主义建设顺利进行,构建和谐社会,确保长治久安.     

汶川地震灾区松散土体岩土特性研究

汶川地震灾区地震诱发了巨量的松散固体物质,呈非均质、欠固结、空间结构复杂,岩土特性具有特殊性。以都江堰虹口深溪村锅圈岩沟为例,在地震诱发滑坡遥感解译的基础上,通过原位渗透、直剪和三轴实验,系统研究了汶川地震灾区松散土体的岩土力学特性。地震诱发的滑坡堆积体主要分布在源区坡度≥30°的区域,平均堆积厚度约为15 m,储量达20×10~4m~3。渗透实验表明,松散土体初始和稳定入渗率均较大,主要与其大空隙、大裂隙、欠固结等特性有关;此外存在内部侵蚀、细颗粒迁移现象。直剪实验中松散土体黏聚力和内摩擦角随黏粒含量增加而增加、但随含水率呈先增大后减小的趋势。三轴实验结果表明,应力随应变的增加而增加;且在不同含水率条件下增长速率不同。围压越小,剪应力达到峰值引起的土体应变越小,土体越易破坏。孔隙水压力随应力和应变的增加而增加,土体破坏后,孔隙水压迅速降低,之后随着应力和应变的增大,孔隙水压力呈现回升。研究成果可以为锅圈岩沟泥石流致灾机理、预警阈值、防治工程关键参数设计等提供科学依据。     

Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2011 magnitude-9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

Most large earthquakes occur along an oceanic trench, where an oceanic plate subducts beneath a continental plate. Massive earthquakes with a moment magnitude, M(w), of nine have been known to occur in only a few areas, including Chile, Alaska, Kamchatka and Sumatra. No historical records exist of a M(w) = 9 earthquake along the Japan trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Okhotsk plate, with the possible exception of the ad 869 Jogan earthquake, the magnitude of which has not been well constrained. However, the strain accumulation rate estimated there from recent geodetic observations is much higher than the average strain rate released in previous interplate earthquakes. This finding raises the question of how such areas release the accumulated strain. A megathrust earthquake with M(w) = 9.0 (hereafter referred to as the Tohoku-Oki earthquake) occurred on 11 March 2011, rupturing the plate boundary off the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. Here we report the distributions of the coseismic slip and postseismic slip as determined from ground displacement detected using a network based on the Global Positioning System. The coseismic slip area extends approximately 400?km along the Japan trench, matching the area of the pre-seismic locked zone. The afterslip has begun to overlap the coseismic slip area and extends into the surrounding region. In particular, the afterslip area reached a depth of approximately 100?km, with M(w) = 8.3, on 25 March 2011. Because the Tohoku-Oki earthquake released the strain accumulated for several hundred years, the paradox of the strain budget imbalance may be partly resolved. This earthquake reminds us of the potential for M(w)?≈?9 earthquakes to occur along other trench systems, even if no past evidence of such events exists. Therefore, it is imperative that strain accumulation be monitored using a space geodetic technique to assess earthquake potential.     

中国汶川Ms 8.0级地震前NDVI变化特征及其佐证

 利用归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据,探测了汶川Ms 8.0级地震前植被变化情况。对震前9年的NDVI数据先做整体变化分析,没有发现明显的植被退化现象;再对时间序列数据进行逐年比对,发现两个比较明显的植被退化现象。其一,2006年与2005年相比,龙门山断裂东部的四川盆地大部分地区6—9月NDVI均值明显减小,幅度为0～20％。推测原因为震前四川盆地受挤压变形,产生热弹效应放热致使地表升温,进一步与大气耦合导致长期干旱少雨,破坏植被正常生长条件,使植被退化。因此,2006年四川盆地大范围植被退化现象可视为震前异常。其二,2008年5月上旬与2007年相比,龙门山断裂带上发现明显的植被退化现象,成条带状分布,NDVI下降幅度超过20%。这可能与临震前龙门山断裂带上发生某些物理化学变化有关,即临震前龙门山断裂带地壳岩石的破裂发育、断裂之间以及岩石之间的摩擦滑移,导致地下热物质上涌和摩擦生热释放,造成短期（近）地表高温,破坏了植被的正常生长条件,使其退化。因此,可以看作震前短期异常。此外,沿着时间尺度和空间尺度,找到一些震前中期和短期异常佐证,以增加植被异常判断的可信度。     

兖州矿区3号煤层顶板砂岩含水层水文地质特征研究

由于对兖州矿区3号煤层顶板砂岩含水性能认识不足,造成了多次矿井的突水事件,甚至淹井停产。分析了兖州矿区3号煤层顶板砂岩的物质组成、孔隙微观特征和岩石力学特征、渗透性能、富水性情况的基础上,利用GIS多元信息拟合技术对3号煤层顶板砂岩含水层进行了突水危险性进行了初步评价。该研究对类似条件下其他矿区水害防治工作具有一定的参考价值。     

边底水稠油油藏单砂体水淹规律量化研究

摘要：渤海A油田是典型的边底水合采的稠油油藏,基本没有无水采油期, 笼统注水后表现出注水井各层段吸水不均匀,注入水单层、单向突进问题比较严重,生产井的含水上升快,产量递减加快的特点,为进一步挖潜油田剩余油,全面掌握各单砂体的水淹状况是非常必要的。传统的油田小层平面水淹图的研究是将注水井的注入水劈分到对应的油井上,然而,对这种边底水能量较强的天然水水侵量的研究尚未见到报道。笔者将等值渗流阻力法应用到边底水水侵量的计算中,摸索出一套定量分析边底水稠油油藏单砂体水淹规律研究的方法,并将其计算结果与油田实际生产动态对比,相对误差较小,为海上同类油田水淹规律的研究提供了一种新的思路。