Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.     

Effect of iron supply on Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and implications for glacial atmospheric CO2

Photosynthesis by marine phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean, and the associated uptake of carbon, is thought to be currently limited by the availability of iron. One implication of this limitation is that a larger iron supply to the region in glacial times could have stimulated algal photosynthesis, leading to lower concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Similarly, it has been proposed that artificial iron fertilization of the oceans might increase future carbon sequestration. Here we report data from a whole-ecosystem test of the iron-limitation hypothesis in the Southern Ocean, which show that surface uptake of atmospheric CO2 and uptake ratios of silica to carbon by phytoplankton were strongly influenced by nanomolar increases of iron concentration. We use these results to inform a model of global carbon and ocean nutrients, forced with atmospheric iron fluxes to the region derived from the Vostok ice-core dust record. During glacial periods, predicted magnitudes and timings of atmospheric CO2 changes match ice-core records well. At glacial terminations, the model suggests that forcing of Southern Ocean biota by iron caused the initial approximately 40 p.p.m. of glacial-interglacial CO2 change, but other mechanisms must have accounted for the remaining 40 p.p.m. increase. The experiment also confirms that modest sequestration of atmospheric CO2 by artificial additions of iron to the Southern Ocean is in principle possible, although the period and geographical extent over which sequestration would be effective remain poorly known.     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years

Knowledge of the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations throughout the Earth's history is important for a reconstruction of the links between climate and radiative forcing of the Earth's surface temperatures. Although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the early Cenozoic era (about 60 Myr ago) are widely believed to have been higher than at present, there is disagreement regarding the exact carbon dioxide levels, the timing of the decline and the mechanisms that are most important for the control of CO2 concentrations over geological timescales. Here we use the boron-isotope ratios of ancient planktonic foraminifer shells to estimate the pH of surface-layer sea water throughout the past 60 million years, which can be used to reconstruct atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago), and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial. Since the early Miocene (about 24 Myr ago), atmospheric CO2 concentrations appear to have remained below 500 p.p.m. and were more stable than before, although transient intervals of CO2 reduction may have occurred during periods of rapid cooling approximately 15 and 3 Myr ago.     

Evidence against dust-mediated control of glacial-interglacial changes in atmospheric CO2

The low concentration of atmospheric CO2 inferred to have been present during glacial periods is thought to have been partly caused by an increased supply of iron-bearing dust to the ocean surface. This is supported by a recent model that attributes half of the CO2 reduction during past glacial stages to iron-stimulated uptake of CO2 by phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean. But atmospheric dust fluxes to the Southern Ocean, even in glacial periods, are thought to be relatively low and therefore it has been proposed that Southern Ocean productivity might be influenced by iron deposited elsewhere-for example, in the Northern Hemisphere-which is then transported south via ocean circulation (similar to the distal supply of iron to the equatorial Pacific Ocean). Here we examine the timing of dust fluxes to the North Atlantic Ocean, in relation to climate records from the Vostok ice core in Antarctica around the time of the penultimate deglaciation (about 130 kyr ago). Two main dust peaks occurred 155 kyr and 130 kyr ago, but neither was associated with the CO2 rise recorded in the Vostok ice core. This mismatch, together with the low dust flux supplied to the Southern Ocean, suggests that dust-mediated iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean did not significantly influence atmospheric CO2 at the termination of the penultimate glaciation.     

Reduced calcification of marine plankton in response to increased atmospheric CO2

The formation of calcareous skeletons by marine planktonic organisms and their subsequent sinking to depth generates a continuous rain of calcium carbonate to the deep ocean and underlying sediments. This is important in regulating marine carbon cycling and ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange. The present rise in atmospheric CO2 levels causes significant changes in surface ocean pH and carbonate chemistry. Such changes have been shown to slow down calcification in corals and coralline macroalgae, but the majority of marine calcification occurs in planktonic organisms. Here we report reduced calcite production at increased CO2 concentrations in monospecific cultures of two dominant marine calcifying phytoplankton species, the coccolithophorids Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica. This was accompanied by an increased proportion of malformed coccoliths and incomplete coccospheres. Diminished calcification led to a reduction in the ratio of calcite precipitation to organic matter production. Similar results were obtained in incubations of natural plankton assemblages from the north Pacific ocean when exposed to experimentally elevated CO2 levels. We suggest that the progressive increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may therefore slow down the production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean. As the process of calcification releases CO2 to the atmosphere, the response observed here could potentially act as a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2 levels.     

西安市南郊公路运输CO_2排放特征及影响因子研究

为查明公路运输CO2浓度的变化特征,分别于2012年7月、8月、11月和2013年4月对西安市南郊长安南路中段近地面大气CO2浓度进行了昼夜观测,并与距离交通线150m处的另一观测点进行对比。观测结果表明,公路运输对近地面大气CO2浓度有着重要影响,交通线旁大气CO2浓度因受车流量影响比距离交通线150m处的观测点高10ppm~20ppm。在日变化上,交通线旁大气CO2浓度呈现出明显的双峰波动,变幅可达80ppm~110ppm;在季节变化上,4月份观测区CO2浓度值最高,7月、8月和11月并无显著差异。此外,大气CO2浓度值与温度呈负相关,而与湿度、气压显著正相关。     

Young organic matter as a source of carbon dioxide outgassing from Amazonian rivers

Rivers are generally supersaturated with respect to carbon dioxide, resulting in large gas evasion fluxes that can be a significant component of regional net carbon budgets. Amazonian rivers were recently shown to outgas more than ten times the amount of carbon exported to the ocean in the form of total organic carbon or dissolved inorganic carbon. High carbon dioxide concentrations in rivers originate largely from in situ respiration of organic carbon, but little agreement exists about the sources or turnover times of this carbon. Here we present results of an extensive survey of the carbon isotope composition (13C and 14C) of dissolved inorganic carbon and three size-fractions of organic carbon across the Amazonian river system. We find that respiration of contemporary organic matter (less than five years old) originating on land and near rivers is the dominant source of excess carbon dioxide that drives outgassing in medium to large rivers, although we find that bulk organic carbon fractions transported by these rivers range from tens to thousands of years in age. We therefore suggest that a small, rapidly cycling pool of organic carbon is responsible for the large carbon fluxes from land to water to atmosphere in the humid tropics.     

The Southern Ocean biogeochemical divide

Modelling studies have demonstrated that the nutrient and carbon cycles in the Southern Ocean play a central role in setting the air-sea balance of CO(2) and global biological production. Box model studies first pointed out that an increase in nutrient utilization in the high latitudes results in a strong decrease in the atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2). This early research led to two important ideas: high latitude regions are more important in determining atmospheric pCO2 than low latitudes, despite their much smaller area, and nutrient utilization and atmospheric pCO2 are tightly linked. Subsequent general circulation model simulations show that the Southern Ocean is the most important high latitude region in controlling pre-industrial atmospheric CO(2) because it serves as a lid to a larger volume of the deep ocean. Other studies point out the crucial role of the Southern Ocean in the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and in controlling global biological production. Here we probe the system to determine whether certain regions of the Southern Ocean are more critical than others for air-sea CO(2) balance and the biological export production, by increasing surface nutrient drawdown in an ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate that atmospheric CO(2) and global biological export production are controlled by different regions of the Southern Ocean. The air-sea balance of carbon dioxide is controlled mainly by the biological pump and circulation in the Antarctic deep-water formation region, whereas global export production is controlled mainly by the biological pump and circulation in the Subantarctic intermediate and mode water formation region. The existence of this biogeochemical divide separating the Antarctic from the Subantarctic suggests that it may be possible for climate change or human intervention to modify one of these without greatly altering the other.     

Climate-driven changes to the atmospheric CO2 sink in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean

The oceans represent a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variability in the strength of this sink occurs on interannual timescales, as a result of regional and basin-scale changes in the physical and biological parameters that control the flux of this greenhouse gas into and out of the surface mixed layer. Here we analyse a 13-year time series of oceanic carbon dioxide measurements from station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii, and find a significant decrease in the strength of the carbon dioxide sink over the period 1989-2001. We show that much of this reduction in sink strength can be attributed to an increase in the partial pressure of surface ocean carbon dioxide caused by excess evaporation and the accompanying concentration of solutes in the water mass. Our results suggest that carbon dioxide uptake by ocean waters can be strongly influenced by changes in regional precipitation and evaporation patterns brought on by climate variability.     

Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4?±?0.8 to 5.0?±?0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions.     

Efficient export of carbon to the deep ocean through dissolved organic matter

Oceanic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) constitutes one of the largest pools of reduced carbon in the biosphere. Estimated DOC export from the surface ocean represents 20% of total organic carbon flux to the deep ocean, which constitutes a primary control on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. DOC is the carbon component of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and an accurate quantification of DOM pools, fluxes and their controls is therefore critical to understanding oceanic carbon cycling. DOC export is directly coupled with dissolved organic nitrogen and phosphorus export. However, the C:N:P stoichiometry (by atoms) of DOM dynamics is poorly understood. Here we study the stoichiometry of the DOM pool and of DOM decomposition in continental shelf, continental slope and central ocean gyre environments. We find that DOM is remineralized and produced with a C:N:P stoichiometry of 199:20:1 that is substantially lower than for bulk pools (typically >775:54:1), but greater than for particulate organic matter (106:16:1--the Redfield ratio). Thus for a given mass of new N and P introduced into surface water, more DOC can be exported than would occur at the Redfield ratio. This may contribute to the excess respiration estimated to occur in the interior ocean. Our results place an explicit constraint on global carbon export and elemental balance via advective pathways.     

Interannual variability in the oxygen isotopes of atmospheric CO2 driven by El Niño

The stable isotope ratios of atmospheric CO(2) ((18)O/(16)O and (13)C/(12)C) have been monitored since 1977 to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle, because biosphere-atmosphere exchange fluxes affect the different atomic masses in a measurable way. Interpreting the (18)O/(16)O variability has proved difficult, however, because oxygen isotopes in CO(2) are influenced by both the carbon cycle and the water cycle. Previous attention focused on the decreasing (18)O/(16)O ratio in the 1990s, observed by the global Cooperative Air Sampling Network of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. This decrease was attributed variously to a number of processes including an increase in Northern Hemisphere soil respiration; a global increase in C(4) crops at the expense of C(3) forests; and environmental conditions, such as atmospheric turbulence and solar radiation, that affect CO(2) exchange between leaves and the atmosphere. Here we present 30 years' worth of data on (18)O/(16)O in CO(2) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography global flask network and show that the interannual variability is strongly related to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation. We suggest that the redistribution of moisture and rainfall in the tropics during an El Ni?o increases the (18)O/(16)O ratio of precipitation and plant water, and that this signal is then passed on to atmospheric CO(2) by biosphere-atmosphere gas exchange. We show how the decay time of the El Ni?o anomaly in this data set can be useful in constraining global gross primary production. Our analysis shows a rapid recovery from El Ni?o events, implying a shorter cycling time of CO(2) with respect to the terrestrial biosphere and oceans than previously estimated. Our analysis suggests that current estimates of global gross primary production, of 120 petagrams of carbon per year, may be too low, and that a best guess of 150-175 petagrams of carbon per year better reflects the observed rapid cycling of CO(2). Although still tentative, such a revision would present a new benchmark by which to evaluate global biospheric carbon cycling models.     

The influence of Antarctic sea ice on glacial-interglacial CO2 variations

Ice-core measurements indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations during glacial periods were consistently about 80 parts per million lower than during interglacial periods. Previous explanations for this observation have typically had difficulty accounting for either the estimated glacial O2 concentrations in the deep sea, 13C/12C ratios in Antarctic surface waters, or the depth of calcite saturation; also lacking is an explanation for the strong link between atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic air temperature. There is growing evidence that the amount of deep water upwelling at low latitudes is significantly overestimated in most ocean general circulation models and simpler box models previously used to investigate this problem. Here we use a box model with deep-water upwelling confined to south of 55 degrees S to investigate the glacial-interglacial linkages between Antarctic air temperature and atmospheric CO2 variations. We suggest that low glacial atmospheric CO2 levels might result from reduced deep-water ventilation associated with either year-round Antarctic sea-ice coverage, or wintertime coverage combined with ice-induced stratification during the summer. The model presented here reproduces 67 parts per million of the observed glacial-interglacial CO2 difference, as a result of reduced air-sea gas exchange in the Antarctic region, and is generally consistent with the additional observational constraints.     

Outgassing from Amazonian rivers and wetlands as a large tropical source of atmospheric CO2

Terrestrial ecosystems in the humid tropics play a potentially important but presently ambiguous role in the global carbon cycle. Whereas global estimates of atmospheric CO2 exchange indicate that the tropics are near equilibrium or are a source with respect to carbon, ground-based estimates indicate that the amount of carbon that is being absorbed by mature rainforests is similar to or greater than that being released by tropical deforestation (about 1.6 Gt C yr-1). Estimates of the magnitude of carbon sequestration are uncertain, however, depending on whether they are derived from measurements of gas fluxes above forests or of biomass accumulation in vegetation and soils. It is also possible that methodological errors may overestimate rates of carbon uptake or that other loss processes have yet to be identified. Here we demonstrate that outgassing (evasion) of CO2 from rivers and wetlands of the central Amazon basin constitutes an important carbon loss process, equal to 1.2 +/- 0.3 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. This carbon probably originates from organic matter transported from upland and flooded forests, which is then respired and outgassed downstream. Extrapolated across the entire basin, this flux-at 0.5 Gt C yr-1-is an order of magnitude greater than fluvial export of organic carbon to the ocean. From these findings, we suggest that the overall carbon budget of rainforests, summed across terrestrial and aquatic environments, appears closer to being in balance than would be inferred from studies of uplands alone.     

Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming

The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems is particularly sensitive to climatic changes in autumn and spring, with spring and autumn temperatures over northern latitudes having risen by about 1.1 degrees C and 0.8 degrees C, respectively, over the past two decades. A simultaneous greening trend has also been observed, characterized by a longer growing season and greater photosynthetic activity. These observations have led to speculation that spring and autumn warming could enhance carbon sequestration and extend the period of net carbon uptake in the future. Here we analyse interannual variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data and ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes. We find that atmospheric records from the past 20 years show a trend towards an earlier autumn-to-winter carbon dioxide build-up, suggesting a shorter net carbon uptake period. This trend cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric transport alone and, together with the ecosystem flux data, suggest increasing carbon losses in autumn. We use a process-based terrestrial biosphere model and satellite vegetation greenness index observations to investigate further the observed seasonal response of northern ecosystems to autumnal warming. We find that both photosynthesis and respiration increase during autumn warming, but the increase in respiration is greater. In contrast, warming increases photosynthesis more than respiration in spring. Our simulations and observations indicate that northern terrestrial ecosystems may currently lose carbon dioxide in response to autumn warming, with a sensitivity of about 0.2 PgC degrees C(-1), offsetting 90% of the increased carbon dioxide uptake during spring. If future autumn warming occurs at a faster rate than in spring, the ability of northern ecosystems to sequester carbon may be diminished earlier than previously suggested.     

A change in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades

The oceans are a global reservoir and redistribution agent for several important constituents of the Earth's climate system, among them heat, fresh water and carbon dioxide. Whereas these constituents are actively exchanged with the atmosphere, salt is a component that is approximately conserved in the ocean. The distribution of salinity in the ocean is widely measured, and can therefore be used to diagnose rates of surface freshwater fluxes, freshwater transport and local ocean mixing--important components of climate dynamics. Here we present a comparison of salinities on a long transect (50 degrees S to 60 degrees N) through the western basins of the Atlantic Ocean between the 1950s and the 1990s. We find systematic freshening at both poleward ends contrasted with large increases of salinity pervading the upper water column at low latitudes. Our results extend a growing body of evidence indicating that shifts in the oceanic distribution of fresh and saline waters are occurring worldwide in ways that suggest links to global warming and possible changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Earth.     

Increased soil emissions of potent greenhouse gases under increased atmospheric CO2

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) can affect biotic and abiotic conditions in soil, such as microbial activity and water content. In turn, these changes might be expected to alter the production and consumption of the important greenhouse gases nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)) (refs 2, 3). However, studies on fluxes of N(2)O and CH(4) from soil under increased atmospheric CO(2) have not been quantitatively synthesized. Here we show, using meta-analysis, that increased CO(2) (ranging from 463 to 780 parts per million by volume) stimulates both N(2)O emissions from upland soils and CH(4) emissions from rice paddies and natural wetlands. Because enhanced greenhouse-gas emissions add to the radiative forcing of terrestrial ecosystems, these emissions are expected to negate at least 16.6 per cent of the climate change mitigation potential previously predicted from an increase in the terrestrial carbon sink under increased atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. Our results therefore suggest that the capacity of land ecosystems to slow climate warming has been overestimated.     

A carbon isotope record of CO2 levels during the late Quaternary

Analyses of gases trapped in continental ice sheets have shown that the concentration of CO2 in the Earth's early atmosphere increased from 180 to 280 p.p.m. during the most recent glacial-interglacial transition. This change must have been driven by an increase in the concentration of CO2 dissolved in the mixed layer of the ocean. Biochemical and physiological factors associated with photosynthetic carbon fixation in this layer should lead to a relationship between concentrations of dissolved CO2 and the carbon isotopic composition of phytoplanktonic organic material, such that increased atmospheric CO2 should enhance the difference in 13C content between dissolved inorganic carbon and organic products of photosynthesis. Here we show that a signal related to atmospheric CO2 levels can be seen in the isotope record of a hemipelagic sediment core, which we can correlate with the CO2 record of the Vostok ice core. Calibration of the relationship between isotope fractionation and CO2 levels should permit the extrapolation of CO2 records to times earlier than those for which ice-core records are available.     

A short-term sink for atmospheric CO2 in subtropical mode water of the North Atlantic Ocean

Large-scale features of ocean circulation, such as deep water formation in the northern North Atlantic Ocean, are known to regulate the long-term physical uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere by moving CO2-laden surface waters into the deep ocean. But the importance of CO2 uptake into water masses that ventilate shallower ocean depths, such as subtropical mode waters of the subtropical gyres, are poorly quantified. Here we report that, between 1988 and 2001, dissolved CO2 concentrations in subtropical mode waters of the North Atlantic have increased at a rate twice that expected from these waters keeping in equilibrium with increasing atmospheric CO2. This accounts for an extra 0.4-2.8 Pg C (1 Pg = 10(15) g) over this period (that is, about 0.03-0.24 Pg C yr(-1)), equivalent to 3-10% of the current net annual ocean uptake of CO2 (ref. 3). We suggest that the lack of strong winter mixing events, to greater than 300 m in depth, in recent decades is responsible for this accumulation, which would otherwise disturb the mode water layer and liberate accumulated CO2 back to the atmosphere. However, future climate variability (which influences subtropical mode water formation) and changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (leading to a return of deep winter mixing events) may reduce CO2 accumulation in subtropical mode waters. We therefore conclude that, although CO2 uptake by subtropical mode waters in the North Atlantic--and possibly elsewhere--does not always represent a long-term CO2 sink, the phenomenon is likely to contribute substantially to interannual variability in oceanic CO2 uptake.     

Effect of trace metal availability on coccolithophorid calcification

The deposition of atmospheric dust into the ocean has varied considerably over geological time. Because some of the trace metals contained in dust are essential plant nutrients which can limit phytoplankton growth in parts of the ocean, it has been suggested that variations in dust supply to the surface ocean might influence primary production. Whereas the role of trace metal availability in photosynthetic carbon fixation has received considerable attention, its effect on biogenic calcification is virtually unknown. The production of both particulate organic carbon and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) drives the ocean's biological carbon pump. The ratio of particulate organic carbon to CaCO3 export, the so-called rain ratio, is one of the factors determining CO2 sequestration in the deep ocean. Here we investigate the influence of the essential trace metals iron and zinc on the prominent CaCO3-producing microalga Emiliania huxleyi. We show that whereas at low iron concentrations growth and calcification are equally reduced, low zinc concentrations result in a de-coupling of the two processes. Despite the reduced growth rate of zinc-limited cells, CaCO3 production rates per cell remain unaffected, thus leading to highly calcified cells. These results suggest that changes in dust deposition can affect biogenic calcification in oceanic regions characterized by trace metal limitation, with possible consequences for CO2 partitioning between the atmosphere and the ocean.