Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.     

1998-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 1998-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.2 million in 1998 to over 63.5 million by 2021. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2036 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 36.9 years in 1998 to nearly 42 years by 2021. In 1998, there were 1.4 million (13 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of pensionable age. However, by 2008, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

2000-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

The 2000-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary at the request of the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.8 million in 2000 to nearly 65 million by 2025. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak at nearly 66 million around 2040 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 37.4 years in 2000 to 42.4 years by 2025. In 2000, there were 1.3 million (12 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, by 2007, the population of state pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Interim 2003-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 2003-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, and using essentially the same underlying assumptions as for the previous 2002-based projections, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.6 million in 2003, passing 60 million during 2005, to reach 65.7 million by 2031. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2050 at nearly 67 million and then very gradually start to fall. The population will become older with the median age expected to rise from 38.4 years in 2003 to 43.3 years by 2031. In 2003, there were around 700 thousand (six per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, from 2007, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Intergenerational replacement and migration in the countries and regions of the United Kingdom, 1971-2009

This article uses a recently proposed measure, the overall replacement ratio or ORR, to assess the extent to which migration alters intergenerational replacement within the United Kingdom. The UK as a whole can be seen to experience 'replacement migration' as immigration compensates for fertility below the replacement level. However, the article shows that the impact of migration differs radically in the different regions of the country. South East England experiences very substantial immigration from both the rest of the UK and overseas, far more than is needed for intergenerational replacement, whereas most of the rest of the UK sees little or no net immigration and the ORR remains below the replacement level.     

The demographic characteristics of the oldest old in the United Kingdom

Those aged 85 and over (the oldest old) are the fastest growing age group in the population of many developed countries. However it is still uncommon to find statistics and analysis of this age group in current reporting. This article draws together demographic characteristics of people aged 85 and over from various different national data sources to provide an up-to-date picture of the oldest old.     

Strategic ideologies and state hegemony,with empirical illustrations from Japan and the United Kingdom

The idea of constitutive and strategic ideologies reflects the analytical distinction between ideologies as outcomes of an inverted reality and ideologies as conditions for the reproduction of that inverted reality. The paper gives two empirical illustrations (from Japan and the United Kingdom) of strategic ideologies, showing how isolated events, which would have normally attracted little attention, became dramatized out of proportion in the false name of attempting to restore/maintain social order. The paper suggests that such reactionary responses are typical of contemporary social systems when faced with problems of weakening internal hegemony (social integration). Instead of recognizing that such problems potentially stem from structurally inherent system-imperatives, the powers in those social systems uncritically and yet strategically seek explanation and place responsibility upon accidental but opportune “events” deemed external and inimical to the mainstream “life-world.” The paper suggests that the interest of liberating systems theory and practice can be advanced by systematic efforts to unmask the ideological concealments so prevalent in our contemporary social formation.     

A picture of the United Kingdom using the National Statistics Socio-economic classification

This article describes the socio-economic characteristics of working age people in the United Kingdom in 2005 based on the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification. The population is described by NS-SEC and gender, age-group, region or household type.     

International migration to and from the United Kingdom, 1975-1999: consistency, change and implications for the labour market

This article presents some findings of a recent study carried out for the Home Office by the Migration Research Unit (MRU) in the Department of Geography at UCL. The study was concerned with patterns and trends in international migration to and from the United Kingdom since 1975, with a particular focus on those in employment, and drew on many sources. The statistics analysed here derive from the International Passenger Survey, including hitherto unpublished tables provided by the Office for National Statistics on migration of the employed by citizenship. They indicate remarkable consistency in some aspects of migration flows and major change in others.     

Using administrative data sources in the estimation of emigration

It is important that migration is measured accurately, for example to inform population estimates and projections. However, current sources of information present challenges in producing robust estimates of emigration from Great Britain. This article reports on work carried out by the Office for National Statistics to investigate the potential for using administrative data sources to contribute to the measurement of emigration.     

对人口、资源与经济协调和谐发展的系统剖析

主要运用系统论、SPSS主成分分析法,对石河子垦区人口、资源与经济的协调发展的总体水平进行分析,然后构建人口、资源与经济的协调发展模型,运用该模型评价这3个子系统的协调发展状况,为本地区实现可持续发展、创建和谐社会提供决策依据。表6,参3。     

Book Review: Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity,Uncertainty, and Conflict. Jonathan Rosenhead and John Mingers. Wiley,Chichester, United Kingdom. 2001, 365 pp., Chaps. 15, £22.50 (Amazon)

Systemic Practice and Action Research -     

烟台市耕地数量变化与经济发展人口增长关系的研究

利用改革开放20多年来烟台地区相关的统计资料,初步分析了该市耕地资源数量变化与经济发展、人口增长之间的关系,得出以下结论:①随着人口的增长、经济的迅猛发展和工业化、城市化进程的加快,烟台地区耕地资源持续减少;②经济发展和人口增长是耕地面积变化的主要驱动力;③耕地快速减少在发生时间上与经济的过热增长基本同步,在空间分布上与地区经济发展速度和水平的差异相一致,即随着地区间经济发展速度和水平的差异,烟台市耕地面积的减少程度由经济较发达地区向经济较不发达地区逐渐降低。因此,科学合理利用城市有限的土地资源,已经成为当前城市建设与发展以及规划决策所面临的紧迫问题。图4,表2,参14。     

Reviewing the mid-year population estimates in Northern Ireland

This article describes the thorough review of the mid-year population estimates for Northern Ireland. No major problems have been identified with the current estimates but a number of enhancements have been put in place. The new figures are consistent with a number of administrative data sources. The overall effect has been to revise the estimated Northern Ireland population by about 6,000 people, or between 0.3 and 0.4 per cent, for each year between 1991 and 1997. The revised estimates for Northern Ireland have been incorporated into the population figures for the United Kingdom included in the Table section of this issue of Population Trends.     

Estimating the changing population of the 'oldest old'

The population of England and Wales is becoming older. This poses an increasing demand for detailed data on the size an trends of the population at the oldes ages. Using the recently released Offic for National Statistics estimates of th population aged 90 and over in England and Wales, this article shows trends in the population of the oldest old and demographic causes of the rapid increase in centenarians during the twentieth century. It also presents further validation of the ON estimates of the oldest old with estimat from other data sources.     

Looking back to look forward: lessons from four birth cohorts for ageing in the 21st century

Government projections indicate that by 2026 the number persons aged 60 and over living in Britain will reach 17.1 million, giving rise to concerns about the social and economic costs of an ageing population. Little attention, however, has been paid to the likely socio-economic characteristics of those retiring in the twenty-first century, and how they may differ from previous cohorts of elderly persons. This research analyses data from the General Household Survey (1974-1996) to examine the social and economic experiences of four birth cohorts. Findings indicate significant differences in the living arrangements, health and access to resources amongst the cohorts, which will have implications for the retirement prospects of the post-war baby boom generations in 2020 and beyond.     

Rebasing the annual mid-year population estimates for England and Wales

The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.     

Bilateral relations between China and the United States: Policy prioritization with the ANP

Improving relations between the People’s Republic of China(PRC)and the United States of America(US)and ensuring that they work together as allies rather than as competitors can serve as a stabilizing force against armed conflict,particularly with surrounding nations.The economic,social,and political relationships between the PRC and US have progressed along a hilly journey.As the second largest economy in the world,the PRC has continued to develop its military and is determined to climb the technological ladder.This growth has led the US and the PRC to be referred to as a G-2 of superpowers.As the US hegemony continues to weaken this G-2 relationship is becoming more important.With significant economic,political,and security issues at stake it is crucial that efforts to strengthen these relations are prioritized and implemented.A rigorous prioritization process,the Analytic Network Process(ANP)is used herein to prioritize the efforts and initiatives in the G-2relationship.The model is presented with results and the extensive sensitivity analysis present additional insight into the suggested solutions.