Insights or forecasts? An evaluation of a computable general equilibrium model of spain

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used as an advanced tool to evaluate alternative economic strategies and policy measures. These models are well rooted in solid economic theory, yet a crucial question is hardly asked: how well do these models perform? We address this question by comparing the economic performance of the Spanish economy in 1988 with the simulation results drawn from a CGE model calibrated with a 1987 Social Accounting Matrix. The values of endogenous variables used in the comparison are the equilibrium values provided by the model after updating the values of exogenous variables such as labour and capital endowments, real exports and effective nominal exchange rates with the European Community and the rest of the world, real government expenditures, and various tax rates, government subsidies, and transfers. The comparison shows that the model captures adequately the major developments that occurred in the Spanish economy in 1988. This result increases our confidence in the quantitative estimates derived from the model in the usual simulation exercises.     

A Bayesian nonlinear support vector machine error correction model

The use of linear error correction models based on stationarity and cointegration analysis, typically estimated with least squares regression, is a common technique for financial time series prediction. In this paper, the same formulation is extended to a nonlinear error correction model using the idea of a kernel‐based implicit nonlinear mapping to a high‐dimensional feature space in which linear model formulations are specified. Practical expressions for the nonlinear regression are obtained in terms of the positive definite kernel function by solving a linear system. The nonlinear least squares support vector machine model is designed within the Bayesian evidence framework that allows us to find appropriate trade‐offs between model complexity and in‐sample model accuracy. From straightforward primal–dual reasoning, the Bayesian framework allows us to derive error bars on the prediction in a similar way as for linear models and to perform hyperparameter and input selection. Starting from the results of the linear modelling analysis, the Bayesian kernel‐based prediction is successfully applied to out‐of‐sample prediction of an aggregated equity price index for the European chemical sector. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting the European Credit Cycle Using Macroeconomic Variables

We question the ability of macroeconomic data to predict risk appetite and ‘flight‐to‐quality’ periods in the European credit market using a model inspired by the Markov switching literature. This model allows for a direct mapping of exogenous variables into state probabilities. We find that various surveys and transformed hard data have a forecasting power. We show that despite its depth, the 2008–2009 crisis should not be regarded as an unusual episode that would have to be modelled by an additional state. Finally, we show that our model outperforms a pure Markov switching model in terms of forecasting accuracy, thus clearly indicating that economic figures are helpful in forecasting the credit cycle. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genetic basis of moult,wing length,and body weight in a migratory bird species,Sylvia atricapilla

Summary In hand-raised groups of 4 populations of Blackcaps, different patterns of juvenile moult as well as differences in wing length and body weight, adaptive to the various degrees of migratory performance, could be demonstrated. 33 F₁-hybrids which were produced experimentally with 2 of these groups (1 African×1 European) showed an intermediate expression of these adaptations relevant to migration, indicating that these physiological and morphological features are under strong direct genetic control.     

The Information Content of Equity Block Trades on the Warsaw Stock Exchange: Conventional and Bootstrap Approaches

This paper focuses on the Polish stock market by analysing the information content of 95 equity block trade transactions executed on shares of companies constituting the WIG20 index. A normalized conventional approach and a bootstrap approach are used to draw inferences. These approaches make use of a multivariate regression model with two explanatory variables: a market return and a dummy variable for the event. Resampling allows construction of an empirical distribution of the normalized test statistic. The outcomes obtained from the application of a normalized conventional approach as well as a bootstrap approach are in line and confirm that equity block trade transactions carry an important signal to investors. Significant abnormal positive (negative) returns are associated with the execution of the equity block trades, the prices of which are higher (lower) than the closing prices 2 days before the execution of the equity block trade transactions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Traditional versus unobserved components methods to forecast quarterly national account aggregates

We aim to assess the ability of two alternative forecasting procedures to predict quarterly national account (QNA) aggregates. The application of Box–Jenkins techniques to observed data constitutes the basis of traditional ARIMA and transfer function methods (BJ methods). The alternative procedure exploits the information of unobserved high‐ and low‐frequency components of time series (UC methods). An informal examination of empirical evidence suggests that the relationships between QNA aggregates and coincident indicators are often clearly different for diverse frequencies. Under these circumstances, a Monte Carlo experiment shows that UC methods significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of BJ procedures if coincident indicators play an important role in such predictions. Otherwise (i.e., under univariate procedures), BJ methods tend to be more accurate than the UC alternative, although the differences are small. We illustrate these findings with several applications from the Spanish economy with regard to industrial production, private consumption, business investment and exports. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International transmission mechanism of stock market movements: evidence from emerging equity markets

This paper investigates the transmission patterns of stock market movements between developed and emerging market economies by estimating a four‐variable VAR model. The underlying economic fundamentals and trade links are considered as possible determinants of differences in transmission patterns. The results of the impulse response functions and variance decompositions indicate that significant links exist between the stock markets of the USA and Mexico and weaker links between the markets of the USA, Argentina, and Brazil. Differences in the patterns of stock market responses are consistent with differences in trade flows. The response of emerging markets to a shock to the US market lasts longer than that of a developed market such as the UK. While no single emerging market can affect the US stock market, the combined effect of emerging markets on the US stock market is found to be statistically significant. These findings can be linked to differences in the speed of information processing and to the institutional structure governing the market. Overall the findings suggest that the transmission of stock market movements is in accord with underlying economic fundamentals rather than irrational contagion effects. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ancestry of modern Europeans: contributions of ancient DNA

Understanding the peopling history of Europe is crucial to comprehend the origins of modern populations. Of course, the analysis of current genetic data offers several explanations about human migration patterns which occurred on this continent, but it fails to explain precisely the impact of each demographic event. In this context, direct access to the DNA of ancient specimens allows the overcoming of recent demographic phenomena, which probably highly modified the constitution of the current European gene pool. In recent years, several DNA studies have been successfully conducted from ancient human remains thanks to the improvement of molecular techniques. They have brought new fundamental information on the peopling of Europe and allowed us to refine our understanding of European prehistory. In this review, we will detail all the ancient DNA studies performed to date on ancient European DNA from the Middle Paleolithic to the beginning of the protohistoric period.     

Neurosensitive contacts and new kind of synapses in wall lizard (Lacerta muralis, Laurenti) pineal body]

The neurosensitive synapses between photoreceptor cells and nerve ganglion cells are numerous enough to constitute an additional argument for a photosensitive function of the pineal gland. A new type of synapse, observed between the secretory rudimentary photoreceptor cells and nerve ganglion cells presents a direct relation from cells showing an active secretory function to the central nervous system.     

Secretion and mechanism of action of the hole-forming toxin aerolysin

Aeromonas hydrophila exports aerolysin as a protoxin which is activated by proteolysis after release. Aerolysin binds to the eucaryotic cell receptor glycophorin and oligomerizes, forming holes in the membrane. Important regions of the molecule have been identified by site-directed mutagenesis, and channel formation has been studied in planar lipid bilayers.     

Systematics and evolution of holarctic Pierinae (Lepidoptera). An enzyme electrophoretic approach

Summary Enzyme electrophoretic data show a remarkably high degree of genetic similarity within the European group ofnapi s.l. whereas genetic differences exist at several loci between the European and the North American taxa ofnapi s.l. It is concluded that the European taxa did not differentiate to the species level and form a phylogenetically young group. The North American taxa included in this study are specifically distinct from Europeannapi and separated much earlier. Within these North American taxamarginalis, oleracea andvirginiensis did undergo speciation. The data show a splitting of the genusPieris into three species groups, each genetically differentiated to the same level. The splitting ofPieris into two genera, as suggested by earlier investigators, is not supported here.     

Spectacles improved to perfection and approved of by the Royal Society

The letter sent by the Royal Society to the London optician, John Marshall, in 1694, commending his new method of grinding, has been reprinted, and referred to, in recent years. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the method itself, the letter and the circumstances in which it was written, nor the consequences for trade practices. The significance of the approval by the Royal Society of this innovation and the use of that approbation by John Marshall and other practitioners are examined. Gaps in existing accounts of Marshall's method are partly remedied by supplementing surviving written materials with accounts of contemporary, and present-day, trade practices based on his method. The reasons why Marshall and his contemporaries failed to record his method and specify his improvements are discussed. The reactions of the Spectacle Makers' Company and its more prominent members, both to the innovation itself and to the Royal Society's letter, are analysed. The impact of the new technique on contemporary and later opticians is described.     

Shifting ontologies, changing classifications: plant materials from 1700 to 1830

This paper studies European chemists’ shifting ontologies of materials by comparing the ways in which they classified materials. The focus is on plant materials, their different identities, and the changing ways chemists sorted out and ordered plant materials in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The main goals of the paper are to follow the development of plant materials from ordinary, everyday materials and commodities in the early eighteenth century to purified carbon compounds and organic substances familiar only to experts in the 1830s, and to reconstruct chemists’ ways of classifying these objects in different practical and intellectual contexts.The study of changes in European chemists’ ways of classifying plant materials over more than a century brings to the foreground a trajectory of ontological shifts that is ‘punctuated’ in the 1750s, the 1790s, and the 1830s. Early eighteenth-century plant materials, which were commodities of the apothecary trade and other arts and crafts, were elevated epistemically as compound components or ‘proximate principles’ of plants in the 1750s, reduced to organic compounds in the 1790s, and replaced by carbon compounds in the 1830s. The last, third transformation of the epistemic constitution of materials and the mode of their classification was accompanied by a deep transformation of the material culture of plant chemistry. After the late 1830s, many of the eighteenth-century vegetable commodities disappeared from chemists’ agenda or were split into different substances individuated and identified in new ways. Coal tar products, and new organic artefacts containing chlorine or bromine, entered the chemical laboratory in the 1820s and became fused with the purified rest of the previous plant and animal substances. The material objects of the new culture of organic chemistry became detached from the materials applied in the extant arts and crafts. It was only in the late 1850s, with the rise of the synthetic dye industry, that a great number of these laboratory substances became involved in industrial production.     

Neozoans in european waters — Exemplifying the worldwide process of invasion and species mixing

The loss of biodiversity — the tendency of the world's fauna to become more and more homogeneous —is widely acknowledged as a problem. Biodiversity is threatened by neozoism and acculturation as much as the extinction of species, but these dangers are less well known. Neozoism and acculturation have an effect on two levels; they lead 1) to an equalisation of the faunal regions and their originally different, specially adapted biocenoses, and 2) to a reduction of genetic diversity below the species level. These processes develop very rapidly in the European waters, particularly in the lowland river systems. The present contribution gives a brief review on neozoans in European inland waters.     

Galileo and the problem of infinity

During the period before the Greek revolution of 1821, and especially during the years between 1750 and 1821, there were two ways in which European scientific thought was propagated in Greece. The first is traditional. It comes from ancient Greece and, through Byzantium, reaches the period before the Greek revolution. It makes known the thought of Aristotle, Democrititus, and others on ‘natural philosophy’. The second way comes from Europe. The Greek scholars of the period before the Greek revolution, and especially at the end of the eighteenth century, tried to bring to and propagate in Greece the spirit ofthe European Enlightenment, They tried to make known to the Greek people the scientific achievements of Newton, Descartes, Lavoisier, and Laplace. Scientific knowledge is an important weapon against superstition, and Greek students had to learn about science to become free persons in an independent Greek state.     

Scientists and bureaucrats in the establishment of the John Innes horticultural institution under William Bateson

Research in Mendelian heredity was first given permanent institutional support in the U.K. at the John Innes Horticultural Institution. The path by which this was achieved is described. It is shown that Brooke-Hunt in the Board of Agriculture played a decisive part in redirecting the John Innes Bequest from a school for gardeners as intended by the testator to an institute given to research on plants of importance to the horticultural trade. The choice of William Bateson as the institute's first director is traced to the influence of a lobby of academic biologists led by J. B. Farmer. The effects of Bateson's appointment on the shape taken by the new institute and on its subsequent history are described.