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1.
对1978-2011年重庆市生产总值时间序列进行分析,研究发现四阶差分之后,数据趋于平稳;四阶差分序列的自相关系数一阶截尾,最终建立时间序列ARIMA(1,4,1)模型,并测算残差平方和,但ARIMA模型的残差序列存在自相关,对拟合效果产生了影响;基于时间序列ARIMA(1,4,1)模型研究的基础,进一步采用线性神经网络对序列进行学习和仿真计算,结果表明:神经网络的模拟效果优于ARIMA时间序列的模拟效果.  相似文献   

2.
桂林市旅游人数的时间序列预测模型   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
采用一阶自然对数差分和一阶季节差分来数学处理桂林市月旅游人数时间序列的季节性和波动性趋势,并依据1999年1月~2006年8月桂林市月旅游人数数据,建立桂林市旅游人数的时间序列预测模型,并将该模型与实际数据进行拟合和预测,结果表明该模型与实际数据的拟合性好,预测得到的数据与实际数据误差较小,可以实际用来预测未来日旅游人数的基本趋势,为管理和市场决策提供参考.  相似文献   

3.
通过构造一个特殊函数λα(n),揭示该函数的重要性质;利用特殊函数λα(n),得到线性常系数齐次(m,q)阶序列分数差分方程的特征方程.然后利用有理(m,q)阶算子分解法,结合Z变换方法求出齐次(m,q)阶序列分数差分方程的显示解;以及结合利用分数Green函数求出解非齐次(m,q)阶序列分数差分方程,得到了一般线性常系数非齐次(m,q)阶序列分数差分方程解的通解结构和基本定理.  相似文献   

4.
针对高温下电容器电容值下降的问题,基于差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型及分数阶自回归移动平均(ARFIMA)模型,引入时间序列分析法预测电容值的退化轨迹.对于ARIMA模型,当电容器的退化过程服从Wiener分布时,利用过差分预判法(OPM)预判原时间序列的过差分阶数;根据单位根检验、自相关及偏自相关函数的计算结果确定经过一阶差分后的时间序列的平稳性.对于ARFIMA模型,利用重标极差法判定退化数据是否具有长期记忆性;通过最小准则及极大似然法估计模型阶数及其相关参数值.最后,通过残差检验验证OPM-ARIMA及ARFIMA模型在提取有效信息与准确预测两方面的能力,并进一步分析了这两种模型的可行性与有效性.  相似文献   

5.
基于CGR-游走模型和分数阶差分,运用时间序列模型分析甲型流感病毒。基于详细HP模型,先将甲流病毒H5N1的蛋白质序列转化成CGR时间序列,再引入长记忆ARFIMA(p,d,q)模型拟合此类序列。发现随机得到的9条H5N1的蛋白质序列都具有长相关性且拟合良好,还发现这类序列都可以用ARFIMA(1,d,1)模型加以识别。  相似文献   

6.
以向前差分为出发点,研究序列型分数阶线性及非线性差分方程解的存在唯一性.通过给出向前序列型分数阶差分的定义以及基于向前差分的Z变换公式,利用Z变换、数学归纳法及Mittag-Leffler函数得到序列型分数阶差分方程解的存在性,并通过逆Z变换及零次近似得到了差分方程解的唯一性.  相似文献   

7.
离子聚合物-金属复合材料(IPMC)具有良好的电-机械特性,由于致动性能类似于生物肌肉,因此受到广泛关注.频域建模方法在处理动力学系统和非常定线性动力学系统的参数辨识方面具有独特的优点.为了针对IPMC驱动器精确地建立数学模型并实现最优控制,首先根据驱动实验数据应用加权Levy算法在频域建立了IPMC驱动器的整数阶模型和分数阶模型,比较两种模型的拟合效果,确定采用拟合精度较高的分数阶模型来描述IPMC非整数阶动力学特性.然后对IPMC分数阶模型应用OptimFOPID界面控制器分别设计了整数阶PID控制器和最优分数阶PIλDμ控制器.最后比较控制效果,可见最优分数阶控制的响应更快,超调量更小,且通频带更宽,可用于实现对IPMC驱动器的精确控制.  相似文献   

8.
基于输出误差的永磁同步电机分数阶建模   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为了得到永磁同步电动机更为精确的数学模型,采用机理建模和数值建模相结合的方式,提出了一种永磁同步电动机分数阶建模方法.首先根据电动机组成机理建立电动机的电磁环节和机械环节模型,分别对这两个环节进行建模实验,然后采用基于输出误差的数值拟合方法进行参数辨识,得到永磁同步电动机的分数阶模型,最后根据所得模型设计速度控制器并进行电动机速度跟踪仿真和实验.结果表明,电动机分数阶模型比整数阶模型能更准确地描述电动机的实际特性.  相似文献   

9.
针对分数阶Black-Scholes模型下的亚式期权定价问题,提出了一种实用性较强的普遍性差分方法,并通过该方法得出了亚式期权定价的数值结果.通过积分变换把亚式期权从二维空间变量偏微分方程转化为一维空间变量偏微分方程,进而得出了时间分数阶Black-Scholes模型下亚式期权的偏微分方程.将亚式期权的显式差分格式与隐式差分格式进行融合得到了一种普遍性差分格式,并结合数学归纳法分析了差分格式的唯一性、稳定性以及收敛性.采用差分格式通过数值模拟说明了普遍性差分方法求解时间分数阶Black-Scholes模型是可行的.  相似文献   

10.
作为图像处理领域中的重要课题,图像去噪问题虽然已被研究多年,但将分数阶微积分应用于此,却还处于刚刚起步的阶段.本文采用频域分数阶化的技巧,引入了频域分数阶差分,并通过整数阶变分导出分数阶变分,再将其应用到分数阶TV模型中.仿真实验表明,频域分数阶差分能更好地保留图像的低频成分;而在图像去噪的研究中,相比整数阶差分,分数阶差分效果更优;并发现极大峰值信噪比的最优阶数和噪声方差有逆向联动关系.  相似文献   

11.
Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.  相似文献   

12.
何延凌 《科技信息》2008,(4):258-258
Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women's language from these perspectives: pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women's language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What's more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.  相似文献   

13.
王慧 《科技信息》2008,(10):240-240
Wuthering Heights, Emily Bronte's only novel, was published in December of 1847 under the pseudonym Ellis Bell. The book did not gain immediate success, but it is now thought one of the finest novels in the English language. Catherine is the key character of this masterpiece, because everybody and everything center on her though she had a short life. We can understand this masterpiece better if we know Catherine well.  相似文献   

14.
The Williston Basin is a significant petroleum province, containing oil production zones that include the Middle Cambrian to Lower Ordovician, Upper Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Upper Devonian and Mississippian and within the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The oils of the Williston Basin exhibit a wide range of geochemical characteristics defined as "oil families", although the geochemical signature of the Cambrian Deadwood Formation and Lower Ordovician Winnipeg reservoired oils does not match any "oil family". Despite their close stratigraphic proximity, it is evident that the oils of the Lower Palaeozoic within the Williston Basin are distinct. This suggests the presence of a new "oil family" within the Williston Basin. Diagnostic geochemical signatures occur in the gasoline range chromatograms, within saturate fraction gas chromatograms and biomarker fingerprints. However, some of the established criteria and cross-plots that are currently used to segregate oils into distinct genetic families within the basin do not always meet with success, particularly when applied to the Lower Palaeozoic oils of the Deadwood and Winnipeg Formation.  相似文献   

15.
理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。  相似文献   

16.
As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.  相似文献   

17.
正The periodicity of the elements and the non-reactivity of the inner-shell electrons are two related principles of chemistry,rooted in the atomic shell structure.Within compounds,Group I elements,for example,invariably assume the+1 oxidation state,and their chemical properties differ completely from those of the p-block elements.These general rules govern our understanding of chemical structures and reactions.Using first principles calcula-  相似文献   

18.
We have developed an adiabatic connection to formulate the ground-state exchange-correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix linear fluctuations.This formulation of the exchange-correlation energy opens a new channel for density functional approximations based on the many-body perturbation theory.We illustrate the potential of such approaches with an approximation based on the particle-particle Random Phase Approximation(pp-RPA).This re-  相似文献   

19.
正The electronic and nuclear(structural/vibrational)response of 1D-3D nanoscale systems to electric fields gives rise to a host of optical,mechanical,spectral,etc.properties that are of high theoretical and applied interest.Due to the computational difficulty of treating such large systems it is convenient to model them as infinite and periodic(at least,in first approximation).The fundamental theoretical/computational problem in doing so is that  相似文献   

20.
<正>"The Journal of Shanghai Normal University:Mathematics"is published by Shanghai Normal University as regular issues of The Journal of Shanghai Normal University each year from 2014 in English.The editors-in-chief of the issues are professors Yuhao Cong and Maoan Han.The Journal of Shanghai Normal University was started in 1958 with  相似文献   

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