二阶有限元浅水模式的伴随变分资料同化

应用二阶有限元浅水方程的伴随模式作资料同化场的数值试验,并利用极小化方法对具有随机扰动的初始场进行优化处理．通过该极小化算法,使所定义的目标函数达到最小,从而得到最优的气象要素初始场．数值试验结果表明：二阶有限元模式的变分资料同化对具有随机扰动的初始场的处理是很有效的．     

GPS掩星折射率的一维变分同化

为了探索GPS掩星观测资料在数值预报模式中的同化应用,利用GPS掩星折射率的一维变分同化技术,将MM5模式输出结果作为背景场,以GPS掩星折射率作为观测值来进行一维变分同化。将同化反演后得到的气压、温度、水汽压廓线与德国地学研究中心（GFZ）公布的气象观测资料进行了对比和分析,得到了较好的比较效果。证实了GPS掩星资料的合理同化对数值预报可进行有效的改进,并提出了下一步的同化方向。     

Assimilation analysis of Rammasun typhoon structure over Northwest Pacific using satellite data

The kinetic and thermodynamic structure of typhoon Rammasun (No. 0205) over the Northwest Pacific has been analyzed, using NOAA-16 polar orbiting Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data collected on 2 July, 2002. The three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation technology is used to assimilate the satellite observation. The results show that the characteristics of the 3D typhoon structure can be more reasonably described from the assimilated data. The warm-cored structure of the typhoon is enhanced in the analyzed field, which corresponds to strong typhoon. The typhoon cyclonic circulation in the middle and lower layers is apparently strengthened, and the strong anticyclonic circulation appears at the top of the typhoon. The water vapor and its supply in the typhoon are enhanced. The microwave assimilation data may be used to supply the lack of the conventional observation data over the tropical ocean.     

北京地区一次强降水过程的多种观测资料四维变分同化试验

采用MM5非静力预报模式及其伴随模式系统,对2005年汛期北京地区的一次局地强对流降水过程进行了包括地面每3小时一次的湿度观测资料、北京地区自动站逐小时降水资料、北京地区逐30分钟GPS可降水量观测在内的多种观测资料的四维变分同化试验。结果表明,采用四维变分方法同化多种非常规中尺度观测资料后,模式成功地模拟出此次降水过程,不仅很好地修正了变分同化窗内的降水预报,同时也使同化窗口以后的降水预报获得了较为明显的改善,并且发现同化了多种观测资料后获得的最优初始场较原模式初始场对流不稳定能量显著增加,具有更利于降水形成的动力及热力条件。另外还对各种观测资料在四维变分同化中的相对重要性进行了分析。     

北京地区一次强降水过程的多种观测资料四维变分同化试验

采用MM5非静力预报模式及其伴随模式系统,对2005年汛期北京地区的一次局地强对流降水过程进行了包括地面每3小时一次的湿度观测资料、北京地区自动站逐小时降水资料、北京地区逐30分钟GPS可降水量观测在内的多种观测资料的四维变分同化试验。结果表明,采用四维变分方法同化多种非常规中尺度观测资料后,模式成功地模拟出此次降水过程,不仅很好地修正了变分同化窗内的降水预报,同时也使同化窗口以后的降水预报获得了较为明显的改善,并且发现同化了多种观测资料后获得的最优初始场较原模式初始场对流不稳定能量显著增加,具有更利于降水形成的动力及热力条件。还对各种观测资料在四维变分同化中的相对重要性进行了分析。     

Numerical simulation of topography effects on the “00.7” severe rainfall in Beijing

In an effort to study the severe rainfall event of 4?5th July 2000 in Beijing (with 24h accumulated precipitation of 240 mm), we perform numerical simulations to investigate this event using the MM5v3.6 model. The model is initialized with the MM5/WRF 3DVAR analysis, which incorporates the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor, automatic and conventional meteorological observations in its assimilation step. For 24 h accumulated precipitation forecast, the threat scores are 0.72, 0.76, 0.67 and 0.63, for thresholds of 1, 5, 10, and 20 mm, respectively. Holding other factors unchanged, sensitivity experiments were conducted with different topographic resolutions of 110, 50 and 3.7 km to investigate the topographic effects on precipitation over the Beijing area. In these sensitivity experiments, we attempt to preserve the realistic orographic distribution in the model topography under the condition of keeping the dynamic-thermodynamic consistency of the initial model atmosphere to the extent possible. Results indicate that the unique topographic distribution and variations in the Beijing area play an important role in determining the location, distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation.     

Numerical simulation of topography effects on the "00.7" severe rainfall in Beijing

In an effort to study the severe rainfall event of 4-5th July 2000 in Beijing (with 24h accumulated precipitation of 240 mm), we perform numerical simulations to investigate this event using the MM5v3.6 model. The model is initialized with the MM5/WRF 3DVAR analysis, which incorporates the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor, automatic and conventional meteorological observations in its assimilation step. For 24 h accumulated precipitation forecast, the threat scores are 0.72, 0.76, 0.67 and 0.63, for thresholds of 1, 5, 10, and 20 mm, respectively. Holding other factors unchanged, sensitivity experiments were conducted with different topographic resolutions of 110, 50 and 3.7 km to investigate the topographic effects on precipitation over the Beijing area. In these sensitivity experiments, we attempt to preserve the realistic orographic distribution in the model topography under the condition of keeping the dynamic-thermodynamic consistency of the initial model atmosphere to the extent possible. Results indicate that the unique topographic distribution and variations in the Beijing area play an important role in determining the location, distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation.     

同化QuikSCAT资料对台风Vongfong(2002)数值模拟的影响

利用四维同化技术和中尺度数值模式MM5相结合对南海台风Vongfong(2002)的登陆过程进行了模拟,分析表明:同化Qu ikScat资料主要能使模拟的台风移动路径与实况更为接近。而台风的强度变化、降水量和降水分布的模拟与对流参数化方案有密切的关系,其中以Betts-M iller湿对流调整型方案最为合适。HFT试验模拟的台风路径、强度变化、暴雨分布和降水强度与实况一致。且试验结果较好地重现了Vongfong的一些异常特征,如路径突然折向北、移速先慢后快、近海强度加强、降雨量大、强暴雨中心落在台风西北侧等。利用非常规资料改善模式初始场,有逼真的物理过程,可以提高对台风登陆过程的预报。     

一种新的遗传策略在含“开关”过程的集合预报中的有效应用

针对初值及模式的不确定性,进行了初值扰动集合预报和模式扰动集合预报。在初值扰动集合预报中,将一种新的遗传策略用于四维变分资料同化生成集合预报的分析场,求解条件非线-}生最优扰动,并结合第二、第三主奇异向量（SVs）生成集合预报的初始扰动。为了检验该方法的有效性,采用一个含“开关”过程的偏微分方程的预报模式,设计了3种比较数值试验方案。结果表明：采用第3方案的集合预报在预报技巧上明显高于其他两种方案。第2方案和第1方案相比,由于“开关”的影响,集合预报技巧提高并不明显。在模式扰动集合预报数值实验中,为了模拟模式的不确定性,在控制方程右端添加6个随机的误差项模拟由于物理参数化方案的不同而带来的模式扰动,采用新的遗传策略在扰动模式中同化出6个对应于扰动模式的分析场后进行集合预报,并与基于伴随技术的方法进行比较。结果表明,基于遗传算法的扰动模式集合预报的预报技巧明显优于伴随方法,且这种优势随着预报时间的增加愈发明显。     

Can the climate background of western North Pacific typhoon activity be predicted by climate model?

Based on the observation and reanalysis data through 1948-2004, the vertical shear of zonal wind, outgoing Iongwave radiation, and divergence fields in the lower and upper troposphere during summer are revealed to correlate significantly with the concurrent western North Pacific （WNP） typhoon frequency, and they therefore can be regarded as predictors for the WNP typhoon activity anomaly. After that, the 34-year （1970-2003） ensemble hindcast experiments are performed by the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Under the Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAP9L-AGCM）, aiming to investigate the numerical predictability of the summer vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field in the lower troposphere. It is found that the temporal correlation coefficients between the hindcast and observation are 0.70 and 0.62 for the vertical shear of zonal wind and divergence field, respectively. This suggests that the model possesses a large potential skill for predicting the large-scale climate background closely related to the WNP typhoon activity, and the model is therefore capable of performing the real-time numerical prediction of the WNP typhoon activity anomaly to some extent.     

观测资料同化与有限区模式初期降水预报

选取1991年7月3日至4日出现在我国江淮流域的梅雨暴雨天气过程,针对有限区模式降水预报中“旋转加强”问题,试验2种初值化方法即牛顿连续松弛逼近技术和降水-湿度场调整方案来改进模式的初期降水预报。试验结果表明：(1) 用湿度场调整方案同化观测降水资料,使同化时段降水区的中低层低压系统明显加强,所形成的初值具有较好的中尺度信息;但该方案会出现观测值与模式不协调引起的虚假小扰动。(2) 用牛顿连续松弛逼近技术同化业务观测系统的速度场和温度场资料,所形成的初值场形成了大尺度特征,同时对应江淮雨带的中低层低压系统加强,所形成的初值能够具有一定的中尺度信息。(3) 因此两者结合得到了最好的预报效果。对于梅雨天气过程,牛顿连续松弛逼近技术更有效。     

全球区域同化预报系统在台风移动与登陆预报中应用

全球区域同化预报系统为中国新一代数值天气预报模式.使用全球区域同化预报系统模式产品和常规观测资料,模拟预报了2005年4个登陆强台风,得到全球区域同化预报系统模式对于台风移动路径、登陆时间、地点、强度等方面的预报能力的初步评价,为应用全球区域同化预报系统模式进行台风天气预报和分析以及对于模式的进一步改进提供一些有意义的依据.结果显示,全球区域同化预报系统模式预报的台风路径24 h平均距离误差小于150 km,48 h平均距离误差小于200 km.模式预报台风强度偏弱,原因在于模式的初始场对台风强度的描述远低于实况,下一步需要改造模式初始场.     

Use of the advanced microwave sounding unit data to improve typhoon prediction

The effects of incorporating the advanced microwave sounding unit(AMSU-A)data with a modified Zhu-Zhang-Weng vortexbogussing algorithm on typhoon prediction are examined through the use of the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5(MM5).The AMSU-A data contain the vertical distribution of the retrieved temperature from satellite brightness temperature, with the geopotential height and wind fields derived through a series of statistical and diagnostic calculations.The advantages of the modified vortexbogussing algorithm include the incorporation of realistic asymmetric typhoon structures,the balanced dynamics with the background field,the easiness to implement and the efficient computations.To test the efficiency of this vortex-bogussing algorithm,the Typhoon Dan event in 1999 is simulated by incorporating the derived AMSU-A fields into the initial conditions of the MM5 modeling system.Results show significant improvements in the track and intensity of the storm, as compared to the simulation without the AMSU-A data.Therefore,this modified vortex-bogussing algorithm can be easily implemented on any typhoon modeling system,which will improve the real-time forecast of tropical cyclones.     

福建省台风降雨的小时尺度响应特征

基于近5 a登陆福建沿海地区的台风最佳路径,采集台风登陆地区在台风登陆前后3 d(总计7 d)1747个气象监测站的降雨时程数据.通过识别提取台风登陆区域的降雨特征,在小时时间尺度上,比较研究各登陆区域台风降雨雨型、累积降雨量时程响应特征、峰值降雨强度以及降雨的时间尺度特征.研究结论可为台风暴雨型滑坡灾变机理的数值模拟...     

Development of typhoon driven wave nowcasting model in Southeast China Sea

Using optimal interpolation data assimilation of observed wave spectrum around Northeast coast of Taiwan Island, the typhoon driven wave nowcasting model in Southeast China Sea is setup. The SWAN (simulating waves nearshore) model is used to calculate wave field and the input wind field is the QSCAT/NCEP (Quick Scatterometer/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data. The two-dimensional wavelet transform is applied to analyze the X-band radar image of nearshore wave field and it reveals that the observed wave spectrum has shoaling characteristics in frequency domain. The reverse calculation approach of wave spectrum in deep water is proposed and validated with experimental tests. The two-dimensional digital low-pass filter is used to obtain the initialization wave field. Wave data during Typhoon Sinlaku is used to calibrate the data assimilation parameters and test the reverse calculation approach. Data assimilation corrects the significant wave height and the low frequency spectra energy evidently at Beishuang Station along Fujian Province coast, where the entire assimilation indexes are positive in verification moments. The nowcasting wave field shows that the present model can obtain more accurate wave predictions for coastal and ocean engineering in Southeast China Sea.     

南海台风"悟空2000"生成及发展的数值模拟

应用NCAR/PSU中尺度非静力模式MM5模拟了南海台风"悟空2000"从一个热带扰动发展为强台风的过程。模拟结果表明,MM5模式能够很好地模拟出"悟空2000"台风的强度和最大风速,清晰显示出南海台风发展中具有的阶段性和爆发性。从水汽和位涡等诊断量的分析出发,分析了模拟的台风结构和台风眼生成的可能影响因素。敏感性试验结果显示,南海海面温度对台风发生发展有至关重要的作用:如果海表温度降低1℃,模拟的台风最大风速将降低近10m/s,风速达到台风级别(32.8m/s)的时间推迟约7个小时;如果海表温度降低2℃(SST仍高于26.5℃),该热带扰动将不能发展到台风的强度。     

Forming proper ensemble forecast initial members with four-dimensional variational data assimilation method

A method has been presented to improve ensemble forecast by utilizing these initial members generated by four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VDA), to conquer limitation of those initial members generated by Monte Carlo forecast (MCF) or lagged average forecast (LAF). This method possesses significant statistical characteristic of MCF, and by virtue of LAP that contains multi-time information and its initial members are harmonic with the dynamic model, six groups of numerical control and contrast experiments were performed with T42 spectral 4-D VDA system. The results show that in dekad range ensemble forecast with initial members generated by this method is prior to that by LAP. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of 500 hPa height in 10-d average by employing this method is 0.01-0.04 larger than by LAP, and root mean square error (RMSE) less than 0.2-0.4 dagpm.     

Diagnostic analysis of the asymmetric structure of the simulated landfalling typhoon "Haitang"

The landfalling processes of Typhoon "Haitang" near Lianjiang of Fujian Province of China from 00 UTC 19 to 12 UTC 20 July 2005 were reproduced by using the nesting non-hydrostatic WRF model and data assimilation technology (Level II Doppler radar data of Changle of Fujian Province are assimilated to the simulation every one hour from 01 to 06 UTC 19 July 2005).The mesoscale structure and evolution of the typhoon before,during,and after its landfall were discussed.The simulation data show that the assimilation experiment with the high temporal-and-spatial-resolution radar radial velocity and reflectivity data can produce much better simulation of the typhoon track,intensity evolution and landfalling location than the control experiment without assimilating radar data.By using the assimilation experimental data,the mesoscale fine-mesh structure and evolution before and after typhoon landfall were analyzed.Because of the influence of sea-land thermodynamic difference,two asymmetric convective regions were located at ocean and land,respectively.To better understand and investigate the asymmetric-structure characteristics of the landfalling typhoon,several dynamical diagnostic tools,the helicity (H),the moist potential vorticity (MPV),the convective vorticity vector (CW),the moist vorticity vector (MVV),which are associated with the development of strong convections,are introduced.Further analysis illuminates that the distributions of these physical diagnostic parameters are totally asymmetric,and subsequently,the associated convections also show distinct asymmetry.     

浙江省近海QuickSCAT风场资料同化模拟风速效果垂直变化

为了提高风速模拟预报的准确性,利用中尺度区域模式(weather and research forecasting model,WRF),同化QuickSCAT风场资料,模拟浙江省近海风场。与实测值对比后发现同化后模拟效果得到提升,特别是在四、七月份得到了显著的提升。在300~2 000 m不同高度同化模拟与未同化模拟结果对比中发现,1、4、7月份大部分区域同化模拟风速小于未同化风速,有利于提高模拟效果;同化后对初始场的优化会被模式约束向上传递,优化更高高度的模拟结果,但这种传递有其极限,效果随高度增加逐渐稳定甚至减小。而10月份由于台风和南退副高的影响,同化模拟风速大于未同化模拟,大部区域两者间的差异会随高度增加而增加。     

耦合遗传算法的数据同化系统误差处理方法

针对数据同化系统中的误差估计与处理问题,介绍了集合滤波数据同化系统中各种误差来源及特征;侧重于在集合数据同化中为防止滤波发散的乘数放大法、附加放大法和松弛先验法等模型误差处理方案,利用经典的非线性模型-Lorenz模型开展了数值试验.在此基础上,提出了一种耦合遗传寻优算法的数据同化系统,来解决以往的误差调节因子由反复实...