Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.     

Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics

Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.     

Late Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in the southern Okinawa Trough inferred from a diatom record

We analyzed sediment diatoms from core MD05-2908 to infer climate and paleoenvironmental changes in the southern Okinawa Trough (SOT) over the past 1000 years.Because the study area is located in the East Asia monsoon area and beneath the main axis of Kuroshio Current,the climatic and hydrographical conditions are strongly influenced by both of these factors.The species used as environmental indicators,including the Kuroshio Current species (KC species) and freshwater species,were investigated in this paper.Changes in the abundance of the two groups of species revealed significant variations in water temperature and hydrography in the SOT during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA).From 950-1500 AD,the abundance of the KC species increased fluctuantly,while the freshwater species decreased,showing that the influence of the Kuroshio Current was intensified at that interval and the precipitation of the study area was relatively low.The KC species decreased remarkably and was maintained at a low abundance during the interval of 1500-1900 AD,which suggests that the impact of the Kuroshio Current on the SOT weakened during the period corresponding to the LIA.Moreover,the high abundance of the freshwater species at the same interval indicates a distinct increase in precipitation in northeastern Taiwan,which may be correlated to the south-detention of the rainfall belt in China caused by the southward migration of the western Pacific subtropical high.     

Spatial synchronization of vole population dynamics by predatory birds

Northern vole populations exhibit large-scale, spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such cases of population synchrony provide excellent opportunities for distinguishing between local intrinsic and regional extrinsic mechanisms of population regulation. Analyses of large-scale survey data and theoretical modelling have indicated several plausible synchronizing mechanisms. It is difficult, however, to determine the most important one without detailed data on local demographic processes. Here we combine results from two field studies in southeastern Norway--one identifies local demographic mechanisms and landscape-level annual synchrony among 28 enclosed experimental populations and the other examines region-level multi-annual synchrony in open natural populations. Despite fences eliminating predatory mammals and vole dispersal, the growth rates of the experimental populations were synchronized and moreover, perfectly linked with vole abundance in the region. The fates of 481 radio-marked voles showed that bird predation was the synchronizing mechanism. A higher frequency of risky dispersal movements in slowly growing populations appeared to accelerate predation rate. Thus, dispersal may induce a feedback-loop between predation and population growth that enhances synchrony.     

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent, productivity and iron flux over the past eight glacial cycles

Sea ice and dust flux increased greatly in the Southern Ocean during the last glacial period. Palaeorecords provide contradictory evidence about marine productivity in this region, but beyond one glacial cycle, data were sparse. Here we present continuous chemical proxy data spanning the last eight glacial cycles (740,000 years) from the Dome C Antarctic ice core. These data constrain winter sea-ice extent in the Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean biogenic productivity and Patagonian climatic conditions. We found that maximum sea-ice extent is closely tied to Antarctic temperature on multi-millennial timescales, but less so on shorter timescales. Biological dimethylsulphide emissions south of the polar front seem to have changed little with climate, suggesting that sulphur compounds were not active in climate regulation. We observe large glacial-interglacial contrasts in iron deposition, which we infer reflects strongly changing Patagonian conditions. During glacial terminations, changes in Patagonia apparently preceded sea-ice reduction, indicating that multiple mechanisms may be responsible for different phases of CO2 increase during glacial terminations. We observe no changes in internal climatic feedbacks that could have caused the change in amplitude of Antarctic temperature variations observed 440,000 years ago.     

Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts

To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.     

秦岭鳌山太白红杉径向生长对气候因子的响应

【目的】秦岭是以太白红杉(Larix chinensis)为代表的典型温带针叶林分布区,也是受全球气候变化影响最为显著和敏感的地区之一,为了解该区树木生长对气候变化的敏感性,分析了秦岭鳌山太白红杉径向生长对气候因子的响应。【方法】基于树木年代学方法,利用鳌山高山林线太白红杉树木年轮宽度资料,建立树轮宽度年表,明确影响太白红杉径向生长的关键气候因子。【结果】太白红杉对气候变化反应较为敏感,年表包含较多的气候信息,适用于树轮气候学研究。相关分析表明,太白红杉径向生长与上年6月以及当年2月和6—7月气温呈显著正相关,与上年5月和当年1、6月降水量呈显著负相关。空间分析发现太白红杉树轮宽度年表对于评估采样点周边较大范围地区6月气温变化特征具有很好的空间代表性。【结论】一些大尺度的大气-海洋变化的耦合作用可能对秦岭地区太白红杉的径向生长产生影响。     

气候因素对病毒流行的影响

 综述了SARS病毒、登革热病毒、流感病毒、呼吸道合胞病毒流行与气候的关系，认为病毒产生于一定的自然条件和环境，特定的气候因素是病毒流行的推手，相同的气候更有利于病毒的流行。超出域值之外，气候因素则会限制甚至阻断病毒传播。探讨了不同气候因素的作用，可完善病毒性疾病的预警机制，有助于对可能产生的疫病暴发提前做好防治准备。     

气候因素对病毒流行的影响

 综述了SARS病毒、登革热病毒、流感病毒、呼吸道合胞病毒流行与气候的关系，认为病毒产生于一定的自然条件和环境，特定的气候因素是病毒流行的推手，相同的气候更有利于病毒的流行。超出域值之外，气候因素则会限制甚至阻断病毒传播。探讨了不同气候因素的作用，可完善病毒性疾病的预警机制，有助于对可能产生的疫病暴发提前做好防治准备。     

Ecology: living in synchrony on Greenland coasts?

Theory indicates that correlated weather may synchronize populations, but the extent to which this holds for non-identical, nonlinear systems is uncertain. Post and Forchhammer claim to have shown climate-induced synchrony for musk oxen and caribou that are separated by the Greenland ice sheet. However, logical and mathematical errors undermine their finding. Whether or not large-scale weather can be a major synchronizing factor across species remains an open question.     

The effect of aggressiveness on the population dynamics of a territorial bird

A central issue in ecology lies in identifying the importance of resources, natural enemies and behaviour in the regulation of animal populations. Much of the debate on this subject has focused on animals that show cyclic fluctuations in abundance. However, there is still disagreement about the role of extrinsic (food, parasites or predators) and intrinsic (behaviour) factors in causing cycles. Recent studies have examined the impact of natural enemies, although spatial patterns resulting from restricted dispersal or recruitment are increasingly recognized as having the potential to influence unstable population dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that population cycles in a territorial bird, red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus, are caused by delayed density-dependent changes in the aggressiveness and spacing behaviour of males. Here we show that increasing aggressiveness experimentally for a short period in autumn reduced recruitment and subsequent breeding density by 50%, and changed population trajectories from increasing to declining. Intrinsic processes can therefore have fundamental effects on population dynamics.     

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long--28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.     

Impacts of orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide on Miocene ice-sheet expansion

The processes causing the middle Miocene global cooling, which marked the Earth's final transition into an 'icehouse' climate about 13.9 million years ago (Myr ago), remain enigmatic. Tectonically driven circulation changes and variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been suggested as driving mechanisms, but the lack of adequately preserved sedimentary successions has made rigorous testing of these hypotheses difficult. Here we present high-resolution climate proxy records, covering the period from 14.7 to 12.7 million years ago, from two complete sediment cores from the northwest and southeast subtropical Pacific Ocean. Using new chronologies through the correlation to the latest orbital model, we find relatively constant, low summer insolation over Antarctica coincident with declining atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the time of Antarctic ice-sheet expansion and global cooling, suggesting a causal link. We surmise that the thermal isolation of Antarctica played a role in providing sustained long-term climatic boundary conditions propitious for ice-sheet formation. Our data document that Antarctic glaciation was rapid, taking place within two obliquity cycles, and coincided with a striking transition from obliquity to eccentricity as the drivers of climatic change.     

Millennial and orbital variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period

The El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time, but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Ni?o events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Ni?o events (summer precipitation declines in El Ni?o years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events--millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record--although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (approximately 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.     

Holocene abrupt climate shifts recorded in Gun Nuur lake core, northern Mongolia

A continuous 7.44 m lake core was successfully drilled at Gun Nuur Lake, northern Mongolia, and analyses on environment magnetic parameters, organic matter content and organic δ^13C were conducted in an attempt to retrieve the Holocene chronosequence of climatic changes based on 6 AMS ^14C dates. We found that the Holocene climate in northern Mongolia has been alternating between cold (or cool)/wet conditions and warm/arid conditions, and also punctuated with a series of abrupt climate shifts. The abrupt climate shifts occurred around 1750, 2800, 4000, 5200, 7200, and 9200 aBP (^14C age), being chronologically correlative to those abrupt climatic events recorded in the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. The correlation indicates that the climatic changes in northern Mongolia were linked with those in the North Atlantic Ocean probably via the North Atlantic Oscillation-affected westerly winds. The strength and position of westerly winds might have modulated the Siberian-Mongolian high pressure system (winter monsoon), directly influencing the climate in China.     

基于GIS的昭通市烤烟种植动态气候区划评估(预测)研究

首先构建了昭通市烤烟种植气候区划定量评价指标体系和评价方法,然后探讨了用多元线性回归结合GIS技术的气候要素空间小网格插值的问题,突破了传统气候变化影响研究总以离散点或区域平均来表达的局限,启动了面上气候波动变化影响的业务服务应用.研究了烤烟种植动态气候区划评估(预测)方法,力图把传统作物气候区划的功能从空间静态性评价提升到空间+时间动态性评估(或预评估)水平,着力反映地方立体气候和气候变化对烟草业的影响.显著提高了烤烟气候区划的生产实用指导性和应用价值.     

DNA reveals high dispersal synchronizing the population dynamics of Canada lynx

Population dynamics of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) have been of interest to ecologists for nearly sixty years. Two competing hypotheses concerning lynx population dynamics and large-scale spatial synchrony are currently debated. The first suggests that dispersal is substantial among lynx populations, and the second proposes that lynx at the periphery of their range exist in small, isolated patches that maintain cycle synchrony via correlation with extrinsic environmental factors. Resolving the nature of lynx population dynamics and dispersal is important both to ecological theory and to the conservation of threatened lynx populations: the lack of knowledge about connectivity between populations at the southern periphery of the lynx's geographic range delayed their legal listing in the United States. We test these competing hypotheses using microsatellite DNA markers and lynx samples from 17 collection sites in the core and periphery of the lynx's geographic range. Here we show high gene flow despite separation by distances greater than 3,100 km, supporting the dispersal hypothesis. We therefore suggest that management actions in the contiguous United States should focus on maintaining connectivity with the core of the lynx's geographic range.     

Regional climate shifts caused by gradual global cooling in the Pliocene epoch

The Earth's climate has undergone a global transition over the past four million years, from warm conditions with global surface temperatures about 3 degrees C warmer than today, smaller ice sheets and higher sea levels to the current cooler conditions. Tectonic changes and their influence on ocean heat transport have been suggested as forcing factors for that transition, including the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation approximately 2.75 million years ago, but the ultimate causes for the climatic changes are still under debate. Here we compare climate records from high latitudes, subtropical regions and the tropics, indicating that the onset of large glacial/interglacial cycles did not coincide with a specific climate reorganization event at lower latitudes. The regional differences in the timing of cooling imply that global cooling was a gradual process, rather than the response to a single threshold or episodic event as previously suggested. We also find that high-latitude climate sensitivity to variations in solar heating increased gradually, culminating after cool tropical and subtropical upwelling conditions were established two million years ago. Our results suggest that mean low-latitude climate conditions can significantly influence global climate feedbacks.     

青藏高原过去2000年来气候环境变化研究

以现代过程研究为先导，以冰芯记录为手段，进行气候环境信息的挖掘，将影响环境的自然与人为因素进行整体研究，对环境长期演变过程中的重大自然事件和人为事件，特别是灾害事件进行剖析，从而提示青藏高原过去2000年来气候环境的变化特征与机理；阐明极低温环境下的微生物演化特征；揭示历史时期青藏高原大气温室气体含量变化的原因及其与气候变化之间的关系，并评价人类活动对环境的影响。     

Fisheries productivity in the northeastern Pacific Ocean over the past 2,200 years

Historical catch records suggest that climatic variability has had basin-wide effects on the northern Pacific and its fish populations, such as salmon, sardines and anchovies. However, these records are too short to define the nature and frequency of patterns. We reconstructed approximately 2,200-year records of sockeye salmon abundance from sediment cores obtained from salmon nursery lakes on Kodiak island, Alaska. Large shifts in abundance, which far exceed the decadal-scale variability recorded during the past 300 years, occurred over the past two millennia. A marked, multi-centennial decline in Alaskan sockeye salmon was apparent from approximately 100 BC to AD 800, but salmon were consistently more abundant from AD 1200 to 1900. Over the past two millennia, the abundances of Pacific sardine and Northern anchovy off the California coast, and of Alaskan salmon, show several synchronous patterns of variability. But sardines and anchovies vary out of phase with Alaskan salmon over low frequency, which differs from the pattern detected in historical records. The coherent patterns observed across large regions demonstrate the strong role of climatic forcing in regulating northeastern Pacific fish stocks.