不同平均强度热盐环流的年代际波动特征

基于美国国家大气研究中心的CCSM3(community climate system model version 3)模式,对淡水扰动试验下不同平均强度热盐环流(thermohline circulation,THC)的年代际波动特征及北大西洋气候响应特征进行研究。结果表明,百年以上尺度的THC变化对其年代际尺度波动产生显著影响,高平均强度下THC的年代际波动周期更长、更显著。对不同平均强度下北大西洋海、气要素与THC在年代际尺度上的相关分布进行分析,发现在高平均强度下,THC与海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)的相关呈现为经向三核型分布,与海平面气压(sea lever pressure,SLP)的相关呈现为类NAO(North Atlantic oscillation)分布,而在低平均强度下,则不存在这2种模态分布;同时,在不同平均强度下,THC与各要素间的相关程度也不同,高平均强度下相关程度更高。     

Variation of the NAO and NPO associated with climate jump in the 1960s

The interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and its relationship with the climate jump in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960s, are discussed using the data analyses. It is clearly shown that the amplitudes of the NAO and NPO were all increased obviously in the 1960s and the main period of the oscillations changed from 3–4 years before the 1960s to 8–15 years after the 1960s. Therefore, the climate jump in the 1960s is closely related to the anomalies of the NAO and NPO.     

Melt-Water-Pulse （MWP） events and abrupt climate change of the last deglaciation

The last deglaciation is characterized by massive ice sheet melting, which results in an average sea-level rise of -120-140m. At least three major Melt-Water-Pulse （MWP） events （19ka-MWP, MWP-1A and MWP-1B） are recognizable for the last deglaciation, of which MWP-1A event lasting from -14.2 to -13.7 ka B.P. is of the most significance. However, the accurate timing and source of MWP-1A event remain debatable and controversial. It has long been postulated that meltwater of the last deglaciaUon pouring into the North Atlantic resulted in a slowdown or even a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation （THC） which subsequently affected the global climate change. Accordingly, the focus of this debate consists in establishing a reasonable relationship between MWP events and abrupt climate change. Here we summarize a variety of geological and model results for the last deglaciation, reaching a conclusion that the major MWP events did not correspond with the rigorous stadials, nor always happened within climate reversal intervals. MWP events of the last deglaciation had very weak influences on the intensity of the THC and were not able to trigger a collapse of the global climate. We need to reevaluate the influences of the temporal meltwater variability on the global climate system.     

Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic and interannual climate variations

Variations of winter Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic are closely related to climate variations in the same region. When winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is positive (negative) anomaly phase, Icelandic Low is obviously deepened and shifts northwards (southwards). Simultaneously, the Subtropical High over the North Atlantic is also intensified, and moves northwards (southwards). Those anomalies strengthen (weaken) westerly between Icelandic Low and the Subtropical High, and further result in positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic, and increase (decrease) the warm water transportation from the mid-latitude to the Barents Sea, which causes positive (negative) mixed-layer water temperature anomalies in the south part of the Barents Sea. Moreover, the distribution of anomaly air temperature clearly demonstrates warming (cooling) in northern Europe and the subarctic regions (including the Barents Sea) and cooling (warming) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait. Both of distributions of SST and air temperature anomalies directly result in sea ice decrease (increase) in the Barents/Kara Seas, and sea ice increase (decrease) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait. :     

Millennial-scale phase relationship between North Atlantic deep-level temperature and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau temperature and its evolution since the Last Interglaciation

This study employed proxy data to investigate the phase relationship between the North Atlantic deep-level temperature and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （TP） surface air temperature （TP temperature） and its evolution at the mil- lennial scale since the Last Interglaciation. The results indicate the alternation of in-phase and anti-phase relation- ships since the Last Interglaciation, with the in-phase rela- tionships showing a shorter duration than the anti-phase relationships. Alternations between the in-phase and anti- phase relationships occurred more frequently during the Last Interglaciation than during the Last Glaciation. The phase relationship between the North At/antic deep-level temperature and the TP temperature was broadly illustrated by that between the North Atlantic temperature （based on oxygen isotope data from the Greenland ice core） and TP temperature. Furthermore, the North Atlantic deep-level temperature and the TP temperature may be connected through the North Atlantic sea surface temperature.     

Weak response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide in IAP／LASG Climate System Model

Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to global warming is examined by using the climate system model developed at IAP/LASG. The evidence indicates that the gradually warming climate associated with the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to a warmer and fresher sea surface water at the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, which prevents the down-welling of the surface water. The succedent reduction of the pole-toequator meridional potential density gradient finally results in the decrease of the THC in intensity. When the atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, the maximum value of the Atlantic THC decreases approximately by 8%. The associated poleward oceanic heat transport also becomes weaker. This kind of THC weakening centralizes mainly in the northern part of the North Atlantic basin, indicating briefly a local scale adjustment rather than a loop oscillation with the whole Atlantic “conveyor belt” decelerating.     

The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change

The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state.     

Linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season

Interdecadai and interannuai timescales are dominant in the North China rainfall in rainy season (July and August). On the interdecadai timescale, the North China rainfall exhibited an abrupt decrease at the end of 1970s. In this study, we examined the effect of this abrupt rainfall decrease on the association between rainfall and circulation on the interannuai timescale, and found that the interdecadal variation does not change the physical mechanism responsible for the interannuai variation of North China rainfall.There is a linear relationship between the interdecadai and interannuai variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season.     

温盐环流对气候突变的影响

由于全球气候变暖的一个负反馈机制——温盐环流的存在,使得气候在变暖过程中有可能出现突然变冷事件．地质历史时期气候突变事件的研究表明：这种潜在的突然变冷事件可能会持续几百年甚至上千年．加强对温盐环流强度变化的监测研究对于预测未来的气候变化,制定防灾减灾措施具有重要意义．     

重庆夏季旱涝急转与大气环流异常的联系

 利用1961—2012年期间重庆的逐月降水和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA的海温、国家气候中心提供的126项环流指数等资料,结合长周期旱涝急转指数,分析了重庆旱涝急转的时间演变特征及其与同期和前期大气环流异常的联系.结果表明：重庆夏季旱涝急转事件有阶段连续性和间歇性并存的特点,年际差异大,涝转旱强度通常比旱转涝强度偏强.旱转涝年的旱期与涝转旱年的涝期比较,其环流特征为西太平洋副高偏西、偏强、面积偏大,低层垂直下沉运动较强,来自南海及西太平洋的水汽输送较弱,重庆易处于水汽输送辐散区,易少雨偏旱.而旱转涝年的涝期对比于涝转旱年的旱期来看,其环流特征为欧洲西岸的槽偏强,极涡偏弱,西太平洋副高偏强、偏西,低层垂直上升运动较强,来自南海及西太平洋的水汽输送较强,重庆易位于水汽输送辐合区,易多雨偏涝.西太平洋副高的季节内振荡的异常是重庆旱涝急转的主要原因.前期3月和4月的PDO和西风漂流区海温指数可以作为预测重庆夏季旱涝急转的一个先兆信号,前期3月和4月的PDO偏强（弱）、西风漂流区指数偏弱（强）时,重庆夏季可能易发生旱转涝（涝转旱）事件.
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Modeling the impact of Australian Plate drift on Southern Hemisphere climate and environment

Using a global atmosphere-ocean coupled model with the present-day and 14 MaB.P. oceanic topography respectively, two experiments are implemented to investigate the effect of different locations of Australian Plate on the atmospheric circulation in middle-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. The results show that when Australian Plate lay south at 14 MaB.P., both anticyclone circulations in the subtropical oceans and cyclone circulation around 60°-70°S are strengthened. Subtropical highs and circumpolar low pressure appear stronger, which results in much stronger Antarctic Oscillation and shorter period of Antarctic Oscillation Index （AOI） at 14 MaB.P. The rainfall and the surface air temperature also change correspondingly.The precipitation decreases around 40°S and increases around 60°- 70°S, and the surface air temperature rises in high latitudes of the South Pacific and descends over the Weddell Sea and its north side. Besides, due to the changes of the temperatures and winds, Antarctic sea ice coverage also changes with its increasing in the Ross Sea and its west regions and decreasing in the Weddell Sea.     

Linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and the sea surface temperature in the North Pacific

The linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific during the summertime (June-August) is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of observed data.It is found that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the North Pacific SST,with the correlation coefficient being 0.58 on the interannual timescale during the period 1954-2003,which suggests that a strong (weak) APO corresponds to high (low) SST in the North Pacific.Their in-phas...     

Decadal variability of the IOD-ENSO relationship

Using three kinds of over 100-year sea surface temperature （SST） datasets as well as three-dimensional wind data from NCEP/NCAR, this paper documents the decadal variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD）-EI Nino/Southern Oscillation （ENSO） relationship. During 1948--1969, positive （negative） IOD and warm （cold） ENSO events were more independent of each other. But after 1970, they tended to occur in the same year. ENSO would influence the whole life span of IOD, and IOD also affects the developing phase of ENSO. Considering the climatological background SST, low-level winds and also equatorial vertical circulations, it is revealed that the decadal variability of the IOD-ENSO relationship may be caused by the enhanced Walker circulation with increased rising motion over the Maritime Continent after 1970. Warmer SST around the Maritime Continent gives rise to anomalous low-level convergence and intensified convection there, which apparently increases the SST linkage between the eastern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific and thereby the interaction between the IOD and ENSO event.     

土壤湿度对中国西北地区夏季气候年际变率模拟效果的影响

利用耦合陆面过程模式CLM3的全球大气环流模式NCAR CAM3进行2组1979～2000年5～8月的集合试验,研究了表层土壤湿度对中国西北地区夏季气候年际变率模拟的影响。结果表明:在相同海温强迫条件下,采用年际变化的表层土壤湿度(ISSM)时,CAM3模式对于夏季西北地区气温和降水年际变率的模拟能力明显好于采用气候态的表层土壤湿度(CSSM)。计算表明,1979～2000年CSSM试验和ISSM试验模拟的西北地区夏季气温距平与ERA40资料的相关系数分别为0.60和0.65; CSSM试验模拟的西北地区夏季降水距平与CMAP资料的相关系数仅为0.29,而ISSM试验模拟结果与CMAP资料的相关系数为0.48。在相同海温强迫条件下,ISSM试验比CSSM试验能更好地模拟出中国西北地区夏季降水年际变率。     

Interconnections between the Asian monsoon, ENSO, and high northern latitude climate during the Holocene

The International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP), which promotes better understanding of the living environment, was initiated in the early 1990s. IGBP and other programs have uncovered much evi-dence that the Earth system is complex and nonlinear, ex…     

太白山气候资源与旅游的Fuzzy评价研究

旅游气候资源由多个气象要素决定.利用模糊分析法进行多层次Fuzzy理论综合评判模型,进一步研究旅游气候资源评价的方法,并对太白山气候资源与旅游适宜度进行了初步评价.     

Links between salinity variation in the Caribbean and North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Variations in the strength of the North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation have been linked to rapid climate changes during the last glacial cycle through oscillations in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and northward oceanic heat flux. The strength of the thermohaline circulation depends on the supply of warm, salty water to the North Atlantic, which, after losing heat to the atmosphere, produces the dense water masses that sink to great depths and circulate back south. Here we analyse two Caribbean Sea sediment cores, combining Mg/Ca palaeothermometry with measurements of oxygen isotopes in foraminiferal calcite in order to reconstruct tropical Atlantic surface salinity during the last glacial cycle. We find that Caribbean salinity oscillated between saltier conditions during the cold oxygen isotope stages 2, 4 and 6, and lower salinities during the warm stages 3 and 5, covarying with the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water formation. At the initiation of the B?lling/Aller?d warm interval, Caribbean surface salinity decreased abruptly, suggesting that the advection of salty tropical waters into the North Atlantic amplified thermohaline circulation and contributed to high-latitude warming.     

高寒草甸植物群落中物种多样性与种群变异性关系及其机制初探

对高寒草甸植物群落中36个物种的物种多样性与种群变异性的关系的研究结果表明:随着物种多样性的增加,种群变异性显著降低的有4个,显著增加的有1个,其余30个物种则表现出不显著的物种多样性-种群变异性的关系;1/4的物种随着多样性的增加平均种群生物量都有下降的趋势,这提供了自然群落中密度补偿存在的实验证据,而且几乎所有物种的均值-方差尺度系数Z值为1～2.这两方面的证据都与理论预期的种群变异性随多样性增加而增加的趋势不完全一致.这可能表明:多样性与种群变异性的关系随物种而异,或者说对群落中多样性与种群变异性关系的规律性认识目前的理论还无法做到,需要寻求新的模型来解释.     

初中生感知的学校气氛与主观幸福感的关系研究

采用学校气氛问卷(初中生版)和青少年学生生活满意度量表对422名初中生进行调查。结果显示:在友谊满意度上男生得分显著高于女生;初中生在友谊满意度、自由满意度、师生关系、学业压力和发展多样性的得分上存在年级差异;学校气氛各维度与生活满意度各维度之间存在显著相关;分层回归分析表明,在控制人口学变量后,初中生感知的学校气氛对其生活满意度存在明显的预测作用。