Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?

This article considers the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the UK over the last fifty years The findings take account of the revision to population estimates following the 2001 Census and are largely similar to the findings of a previous review carried out after the 1991 Census. The total population has been projected reasonably accurately but this is largely a chance result of compensating errors in the assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration. The largest differences between projected and actual populations are for the very young and the very old, while projections of the working age population have been comparatively accurate. Fertility and mortality errors have reduced in more recent projections, while migration errors have grown. However, this may simply reflect the volatility or stability of the respective time-series at the time the projections are made. Changes in estimates of the past and current size of the population (highlighted by the revisions made to population estimates following the 2001 Census) are also shown to play a part in explaining projection error.     

The UK population: how does it compare?

This is the fourth demographic report for the UK, providing an overview of the latest statistics on the population. This year's article compares the UK with other European countries and a range of nations from around the world. Statistical comparisons are made for fertility, mortality, ageing, migration and population density. The UK has an ageing population, but one that is not ageing as rapidly as some other countries such as Germany, Italy and Japan. Although life expectation in the UK is improving in line with most western European countries, relatively high levels of fertility ensure that the proportion of the population that is young remains high. Around one in ten residents of the UK are foreign born, a lower proportion than many developed countries. UK population density has increased steadily and is the fourth highest in the EU.     

Local marriage markets in Great Britain: how diverse?

Estimates are made of the number of potential marriage partners available for unmarried men and women, by age, in Great Britain in 1991 and how this varies across local districts. The preferences of men and women in relation to partner ages are taken into account in the estimates. Average partner supply declines by age for women and increases with age for men. Marriage markets differ between local areas but the differentiation is not as substantial as in many other aspects of local demography and is a good deal less than the variation that occurs through time. Young women and older men have advantageous marriage markets almost everywhere while young men and older women are at a disadvantage in almost all areas.     

Projections of the population by ethnic group: a sufficiently interesting or a definitely necessary exercise to undertake?

This article considers the range of needs which would be met by having available projections of the population by ethnic group, and, in particular, the r?le these projections would usefully play in informing current and future policy issues. The article first identifies and lists the main uses, and potential users, of such projections and gives an appraisal of the likely applications in each context. Some of the challenges involved in using the main datasources--the census and surveys--for making such projections are then addressed; the article considers what is measured by asking questions on ethnicity, and discusses the implications of ethnicity being self-assessed--two important considerations which affect the potential usefulness of ethnic projections. Finally, details are given of a co-operative project involving a multi-disciplinary team of academic experts to explore the feasibility of making such projections.