When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration

This paper offers a step-by-step analysis of a heuristic approach to scenario planning, taking a managerial perspective. The scenario method is contrasted in general with more traditional planning techniques, which tend to perform less well when faced with high uncertainty and complexity. An actual case involving a manufacturing company is used to illustrate the main steps of the proposed heuristic. Its essence is to identify relevant trends and uncertainties, and blend them into scenarios that are internally consistent. In addition, the scenarios should bound the range of plausible uncertainties and challenge managerial thinking. Links to decision making are examined next, including administrative policies as well as integrative techniques. At the strategic level, a key-success-factor matrix is proposed for integrating scenarios, competitor analysis and strategic vision. At the operational level, Monte Carlo simulation is suggested and illustrated as one useful technique for combining scenario thinking with formal project evaluation (after appropriate translations). The paper concludes with a general discussion of scenario planning, to place it in a broader perspective.     

Robert Boyle and the heuristic value of mechanism

This paper argues that, contrary to the claims of Alan Chalmers, Boyle understood his experimental work to be intimately related to his mechanical philosophy. Its central claim is that the mechanical philosophy has a heuristic structure that motivates and gives direction to Boyle's experimental programme. Boyle was able to delimit the scope of possible explanations of any phenomenon by positing both that all qualities are ultimately reducible to a select group of mechanical qualities and that all explanations of natural phenomena are to be in terms of the operations of machines and are to appeal only to qualities that are already familiar. This is illustrated by his investigations into the Torricellian experiment. Boyle's explanation of the elevation of the mercurial cylinder by appeal to the spring of the air was an intermediate mechanical explanation. Boyle was convinced that the spring of the air was ultimately reducible to the mechanical qualities. This in turn had implications for his research into the cause of respiration. In a move that was both parsimonious and consistent with the broad requirements of the mechanical philosophy, Boyle was able to solve the problem of the cause of the inflow of air into the lungs by appeal to his research in pneumatics. This application of a mechanical explanation in pneumatics to physiology is just what one would expect if the mechanical philosophy was as universal as Boyle claimed it to be. Therefore, far from Boyle's experiments having a life of their own, they were clearly directed by and understood in terms of the mechanical philosophy.     

Existential risk,creativity & well-adapted science

Existential risks, particularly those arising from emerging technologies, are a complex, obstinate challenge for scientific study. This should motivate studying how the relevant scientific communities might be made more amenable to studying such risks. I offer an account of scientific creativity suitable for thinking about scientific communities, and provide reasons for thinking contemporary science doesn't incentivise creativity in this specified sense. I'll argue that a successful science of existential risk will be creative in my sense. So, if we want to make progress on those questions we should consider how to shift scientific incentives to encourage creativity. The analysis also has lessons for philosophical approaches to understanding the social structure of science. I introduce the notion of a ‘well-adapted’ science: one in which the incentive structure is tailored to the epistemic situation at hand.     

The anchor and adjustment heuristic in time-series forecasting

This paper explores the relevance of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in judgmental time-series extrapolation. Using a database of real time series it examines the proposition that people anchor on the last history value of the series and make insufficient adjustments from it in making their forecast. In contrast to studies in behavioral decision making, analysis shows that the anchor and adjustment heuristic does not describe the behavior of time-series forecasters. Adjustments from the anchor are often excessive, not insufficient. A number of possible explanations for this exceptional finding are explored.     

The role of heuristic appraisal in conflicting assessments of string theory

Over the last three decades, string theory has emerged as one of the leading hopes for a consistent theory of quantum gravity that unifies particle physics with general relativity. Despite the fact that string theory has been a thriving research program for the better part of three decades, it has been subjected to extensive criticism from a number of prominent physicists. The aim of this paper is to obtain a clearer picture of where the conflict lies in competing assessments of string theory, through a close reading of the argumentative strategies employed by protagonists on both sides. Although it has become commonplace to construe this debate as stemming from different attitudes to the absence of testable predictions, we argue that this presents an overly simplified view of the controversy, which ignores the critical role of heuristic appraisal. While string theorists and their defenders see the theoretical achievements of the string theory program as providing strong indication that it is ‘on the right track’, critics have challenged such claims, by calling into question the status of certain ‘solved problems’ and its purported ‘explanatory coherence’. The debates over string theory are therefore particularly instructive from a philosophical point of view, not only because they offer important insights into the nature of heuristic appraisal and theoretical progress, but also because they raise deep questions about what constitutes a solved problem and an explanation in fundamental physics.     

A rat model of neurobehavioral development

Summary The neurobehavioral evolution of the normally growing rat has been investigated by means of a series of reflex, motor and sensory tests from birth up to weaning. A sequential development of behavioral reponses has been assessed over this 21-days period, the 2nd week following birth representing an important step in the neurobehavioral maturation of the rat. This rat model may be considered as an useful reference to evaluate changes that may be induced by pharmacological and toxicological agents in the developing exposed rat.Acknowledgment. We thank Mrs D. Huot-Blais for her secretarial assistance.     

A model of enzymatic kinetics]

In this Note, we study a system of differential equations representing the kinetics of an enzymatic reaction. For a closed system, and in the domain where it has a biological significance, it is shown that: (i) there exists a unique equilibrium point, which is an asymptotically stable point; (ii) if several enzymes act on the same substrates, the equilibrium values of the substrates concentrations take their values within the range of the equilibrium values achieved with each of these enzymes, (iii) the kinetics of the reaction can be approached by a single first-order differential equation, which may be seen as a generalization of the Michaelis equation.     

A model for investigating erythropoiesis

Zusammenfassung Ein Modell zur Untersuchung der Erythropoese zeigt zwei Hauptmerkmale. Erstens aktiviert eine schnelle Veränderung der Sauerstoffsensoren unmittelbar das gespeicherte und das im Umlauf befindliche Erythropoetin. Zweitens wird der normale Verlauf des Umsatzes von roten Blutkörperchen durch die Sauerstoffsensoren beeinflusst, die die Hypothalamuskontrolle des zyklischen Verhaltens des Hypophysenzwischenlappens und seiner innerdrüslichen Kolloidproduktion steuern.

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this study was supported by a grant from the National Research Council of Canada.     

The usefulness of heuristic N(E)RLS algorithms for combining forecasts

There exists theoretical and empirical evidence on the efficiency and robustness of Non-negativity Restricted Least Squares combinations of forecasts. However, the computational complexity of the method hinders its widespread use in practice. We examine various optimizing and heuristic computational algorithms for estimating NRLS combination models and provide certain CPU-time reducing implementations. We empirically compare the combination weights identified by the alternative algorithms and their computational demands based on a total of more than 66,000 models estimated to combine the forecasts of 37 firm-specific accounting earnings series. The ex ante prediction accuracies of combined forecasts from the optimizing versus heuristic algorithms are compared. The effects of fit sample size, model specification, multicollinearity, correlations of forecast errors, and series and forecast variances on the relative accuracy of the optimizing versus heuristic algorithms are analysed. The results reveal that, in general, the computationally simple heuristic algorithms perform as well as the optimizing algorithms. No generalizable conclusions could be reached, however, about which algorithm should be used based on series and forecast characteristics. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model of nucleolar structure and behaviour

Zusammenfassung Ein mathematisches Modell wird beschrieben, wobei der Nukleolus als offenes System die fibrilläre RNS und die Ribonukleoproteingranula als Komplexstruktur aufgefasst werden. Die Formeln verwenden: Kerndurchmesser, Geschwindigkeit der Bildung von fibrillärer RNS, Moleküllänge, Halbwertszeit ihres Zerfalls sowie die Dichte der Ribonukleoproteingranula.     

A rat model of neurobehavioral development.

The neurobehavioral evolution of the normally growing rat has been investigated by means of a series of reflex, motor and sensory tests from birth up to weaning. A sequential development of behavioral responses has been assessed over this 21-days period, and 2nd week following birth representing an important step in the neurobehavioral maturation of the rat. This rat model may be considered as an useful reference to evaluate changes that may be induced by pharmacological and toxicological agents in the developing exposed rat.     

A non representationalist view of model explanation

In this paper, I examine two idealized models in astrophysics, with the aim of showing that the idealizations in these models play an important explanatory role. I argue, against many representationalists, that it is because of the idealizations in these models, rather than in spite of them, that the models turn out to have explanatory power. In many cases, this claim can be extended to the use of idealized models in the sciences more generally, and thus it gives important insight into the nature of model explanation.     

A new model of glucocorticoid-induced metanephric maldevelopment

Summary A new experimental model of glucocortocoid-induced tubular cyst formation has been developed in metanephric organ culture. The addition of cortisol (1.4×10^–5 M) to chemically defined serum-free culture medium produces cystic changes during in vitro nephrogenesis. The model isolates the role of glucocorticoids in experimental cyst formation.Acknowledgment. This work has been supported by Basil O'Connor Starter Research Grant No.5-349 from the March of Dimes Birth Defects Foundation.     

A new model of glucocorticoid-induced metanephric maldevelopment

A new experimental model of glucocorticoid-induced tubular cyst formation has been developed in metanephric organ culture. The addition of cortisol (1.4 X 10(-5) M) to chemically defined serum-free culture medium produces cystic changes during in vitro nephrogenesis . The model isolates the role of glucocorticoids in experimental cyst formation.     

视差计算的层级模型

生物的立体感知是由一个层级网络完成的:从初级视皮层到高层区域,神经元感受野逐步增大,局部立体感知逐步变为全局立体感知.视皮层中存在大量对视差敏感的神经元,其中V1区单个神经元的视差选择特性可用视差能量模型来描述.文中从生物的立体感知过程出发,提出了一种计算图像视差的层级模型,主要贡献有:(1)提出了一种符合心理学实验结果的归一化视差能量模型,减弱了图像对比度变化对神经元视差响应能量的影响;(2)利用视皮层视差功能柱的性质,提出了一种不同倾向视差神经元的汇聚方法;(3)根据不同脑皮层之间的连接关系,提出了一种两层网络结构来解决V1区神经元编码视差的歧义问题.文中方法可以有效提高纹理重复和纹理不丰富区域的视差计算精度.     

A model of an average recession and recovery

This paper proposes an Average Recession/Recovery Model (ARRM). It discusses the reasons why such a model is needed and how it can be developed. Major utilities of the model are (1) it is an extremely simple way to display complex forecasts to management graphically, (2) it can be applied to a single time series–with monthly or quarterly data–and is applicable to a large proportion of time series, both macro and micro, (3) it is easy to calculate, to understand, to program and to communicate with it and (4) it employs widely accepted statistical and economic methods.     

A kinetic model for nucleohistone-dependent DNA synthesis

Résumé A basse concentration de «template» et de déoxynucléoside triphosphate, la vitesse de synthèse de DNA par la DNA polymérase deE. coli suit la loi simple de Michaelis. Les valeurs deK _m et deV pour les réactions dépendant de la nucléohistone sont plus basses que les valeurs pour les réactions dépendant du DNA, mais les rapportsV/K _m sont semblables. Les additions supplémentaires de constituants du mélange réactionnel de la polymérase n'ont eu qu'un très faible effet sur le système dépendant de la nucléohistone.

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This work was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the Division of Biology, California Institute of Technology and the Western Utilization Research and Development Division, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. The work was supported in part by U.S. Public Health Service Grants Nos. GM-03977, GM-05143, AM-03102.Reference to a company or product name does not imply approval or recommendation of the product by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to the exclusion of others that may be suitable.     

A BVAR model for the connecticut economy

A Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model is developed for the Connecticut economy to forecast the unemployment rate, nonagricultural employment, real personal income, and housing permits authorized. The model includes both national and state variables. The Bayesian prior is selected on the basis of the accuracy of the out-of-sample forecasts. We find that a loose prior generally produces more accurate forecasts. The out-of-sample accuracy of the BVAR forecasts is also compared with that of forecasts from an unrestricted VAR model and of benchmark forecasts generated from univariate ARIMA models. The BVAR model generally produces the most accurate short- and long-term out-of-sample forecasts for 1988 through 1992. It also correctly predicts the direction of change.     

混凝土材料三维弹塑性本构模型

非线性统一强度准则将材料的强度特性分解为4个相互独立的因素,由4个材料参数分别描述,在主应力空间内的强度面连续光滑,存在连续的偏导数.本文将非线性统一强度准则作为屈服函数,以塑性剪应变的函数作为硬化/软化参数,硬化/软化函数参考单轴压缩条件下的应力应变关系给出,建立了混凝土材料的非线性统一弹塑性本构模型.通过混凝土材料单轴、双轴和三轴试验结果对本构模型的验证,以及偏心受压构件试验结果对数值模拟结果的验证表明,所建立的非线性统一弹塑性本构模型可较好地描述混凝土材料的三维变形与强度特性,并可反映应变软化特性,将模型用于数值计算时易于获得收敛解,且具有较高的精确度和计算效率.