全球气候变化下的半干旱区相对湿度变化研究

为揭示全球气候变化下半干旱区空气相对湿度的变化规律,利用线性回归分析、多元线性相关分析以及M-K检验法对吉林省西部5个站点的1953年以来的相对湿度、气温、降水和风速资料进行了研究.结果表明:相对湿度的年变化曲线呈双峰型,相对湿度的最大值出现在8月,次大值出现在1月,最小值出现在4月,次小值出现在10月.夏、秋季的相对湿度较大,而春、冬季的相对湿度较小.近50年,年平均相对湿度及春、夏、秋、冬四季的相对湿度在波动中下降,下降趋势不显著;但是9月和10月的平均相对湿度下降显著.影响相对湿度变化的主要因子是温度和降水,风速也起一定的作用.相对湿度的变化与温度和风速变化呈负相关关系,与降水变化呈正相关关系.     

Responses of desertification to variations in wind activity over the past five decades in arid and semiarid areas in China

There have been significant variations in wind activity over the past five decades in arid and semiarid areas in China. High wind activity occurred from the 1960s to the 1970s, but wind activity has decreased continuously from the 1980s to the present; as a result, the potential sand transport during the latter period was only 20%-50% of the values during the 1960s and 1970s. Phases of high wind activity were highly consistent with the trends in desertification over the past five decades in arid and semiarid areas in China, but spring precipitation was also a significant factor： rapid desertification during the 1960s and 1970s was due to high wind activity, generally combining with low spring precipitation; subsequent rehabilitation since the 1980s has resulted from the combined effects of low wind activity and higher spring precipitation. Therefore, although modern desertification and rehabilitation processes are being more or less affected by human activities, both processes appear to be more strongly controlled by climate change.     

土地沙化绘图法在干旱半干旱地区应用研究

目前,有关我国干旱半干旱地区的土地沙漠化风险判断一直存在不同的研究方法。各个地区有着自己独特的地理景观,除了区域整体外来因素影响外,地理、地质因子、景观因子、次因子之间相互作用影响也是非常重要的。通过对哈密地区遥感影像的解译数据与专家经验法则的对比分析,来验证风险绘图法在干旱半干旱地区的可行性、可比较性、可检验性,并利用沙化风险绘图法来说明或预测土地变化趋势及确定区域沙化的相对准确的风险指数。     

基于CMIP5全球气候模式的中国典型区域干湿变化分析

基于CMIP5多全球气候模式数值模拟结果,包括空间分辨率0.5°的逐月历史气候数据和RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下未来气候变化预估数据,利用潜在蒸散发和降水量构建能够表征地表干湿状况的湿润指数,对中国东部季风区7个典型区1901—2100年干湿变化趋势进行了模拟和分析.结果表明:各分区在1901—2005年湿润指数均呈现下降趋势,其中珠江、长江、淮河流域变化较为平缓,黄河、海河流域和东北地区波动较大.可见在过去的100多年中,东部季风区整体上呈现不同程度的干旱化.在2006—2100年不同温室气体排放情景下,各分区的湿润指数呈现不同程度的波动,除了黄河上游地区湿润指数呈现增长趋势外,其他区域没有明显的变湿趋势.     

中国干旱半干旱区地理信息资源开发利用初探

干旱半干旱区有着丰富的地理信息资源,信息社会的到来和市场经济的发展,为地理信息资源的开发利用提供了机遇和条件,科学技术的高速发展也使地理信息资源的开发利用具有了新的技术手段．结合本地区的特点,阐述了干旱半干旱区地理信息资源的特征,提出了合理开发地理信息资源的有效途径     

Research progress on algae of the microbial crusts in arid and semiarid regions

Microbial crusts are attracting much interest in view of their possible uses in environmental conservation and ecological restoration of the arid and semiarid regions.Because algae play an irreplaceable important role in the early formation and the strengthening of microbial crusts,they are paid much more attention to than other cryptogams.In this paper,an overview of the current knowledge on the fine structure and development of microbial crust,focusing on the algal biomass,vertical distribution,succession,influential factors on algae,cohesion of soil stabilization,cementing mechanism for soil particles and the microalgal extracellular polymers is given,with particular emphasis on the authors' researches,and some prospects are put forward as well.     

干旱半干旱地区土壤矿物组成特征及其环境意义

对处于干旱、半干旱地区的甘肃省15个地点的灰钙土、栗钙土、黑垆土、灰褐土和黄绵土等不同类型土壤剖面进行了机械组成分析、矿物组成显微鉴定和粘土矿物X射线衍射分析.结果表明:土壤机械组成以粉砂为主,粘粒次之;栗钙土、灰钙土、黑钙土和灰褐土等于旱地区典型土壤中表层的粘粒质量分数相对较低,土壤原生矿物组成以石英为主,绿帘石等蚀变矿物质量分数较高,次生矿物含有较高的石膏和方解石等;粘土矿物主要为伊利石、绿泥石、高岭石和蒙脱石.土壤机械组成、矿物组成和粘土矿物组成表明:干旱、半干旱地区土壤为黄土母质,土壤形成条件为碱性环境、较弱的淋滤作用和干冷气候,近代强烈的风蚀作用(或沙尘暴)和大气污染对土壤有一定程度的改造.     

中国干旱半干旱地区地理环境建设战略意义初探

根据我国干旱半干旱区的地理位置和基本自然条件,论述了该区域自然环境稳定性差、气候旱化趋势强、资源与环境协调性差和有效环境容量小等特征,指出该区域对我国地理环境的影响;由此认为加强我国干旱半干旱区地理环境建设,不仅对该区域而且对全国的可持续发展均具有重要的战略意义,并提出进行地理环境建设的基本措施．     

Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.     

Decadal-scale precipitation variations in arid and semiarid zones of northern China during the last 500 years

Regional decadal precipitation reconstructions for the arid and semi-arid zones of northern China were established by the use of different palaeoclimate archives such as ice-cores, tree-rings, lake sediments and written historical documents. Local rainfall reconstructions from single sites were averaged to obtain regional precipitation records for western and eastern regions of an arid and semiarid zone of northern China, respectively. All established regional precipitation curves display 5 dry periods, each lasting about 50 years. Meanwhile, precipitation reconstructions show regional dissimilarities. During the last 500 years, the trends of precipitation change in the eastern arid region are basically consistent with those in the western and eastern regions of the semiarid zone. Precipitation variations in the western arid region are unique, showing significant local patterns of rainfall variability. Maximum entropy method (MEM) spectral estimates show that each regional precipitation series contains stationary century-scale periodicities of about 120 a.Singular spectrum analysis was applied to isolating the century-scale oscillation signals from the regional proxy precipitation series. Significant periods with wavelengths of 121.4a, 154.6a, 124.3a, 118.6a, 108.5a and 121.4a were found 26.56%, 26.44%, 28.87%, 18.67%, 33.48% and 34.04% of the variances of the original series for the western arid zone,the eastern arid zone, the whole arid zone, the western semiarid zone, the eastern semiarid zone and whole northern China, respectively.     

近30年中国农业气候资源分布及其变化趋势分析

研究结合20世纪全球气候变暖特征,主要选取20世纪80年代以来全球变暖加剧的30年作为研究时段,利用其中536个地面气象站点逐日气象资料,分析中国近30年农业气候资源变化的总体特征,为合理利用农业气候资源、应对气候变化、制定相应耕作措施和种植制度提供宏观建议。结果表明:气候变化背景下,我国热量资源随时间呈现出显著上升趋势,空间上由东南向东北、西北逐渐减少;其中,无霜期由东南向西北逐渐缩短;东北、中南大部、西北局部地区水分资源随时间呈减少趋势,其中,降水量由东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐减少,参考作物蒸散呈现出南部及西北内陆偏多的趋势,水分从东南向西北总体呈现出由盈余到亏缺的分布规律;光能资源呈现出由西南中部向四周逐渐增加的趋势,且向西北内陆地区增加尤为明显。     

Quantitative assessment and analysis on the dynamic change of ecological capital in arid areas

Ecological capital is the summation of the direct value of biological resources and the ecological service function value of ecosystems. Under the support of RS, GPS and GIS, in this paper the RS-based quantitative measurement model of assessing ecological capital is developed based on the traditional ecology theory and the research on the value of ecological capital per unit area by using the ecological parameters including Landsat TM data, CBERS satellite data, meteorological data, MODIS satellite data, land cover data and field-measured data. A case study on the spatiotemporal distribution of ecological capital in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture in 1990, 1995 and 2003 is carried out, and the dynamic change of ecological capital in the prefecture is measured and compared with GDP. The maps of the spatial distribution of ecological capital in the study area are charted, and the characteristics of spatial distribution of ecological capital are analyzed. The results show that the values of ecological capital in the prefecture in 1990, 1995 and 2003 were 1.47368×10¹¹, 1.66160×10¹¹ and 1.77895×10¹¹ yuan RMB (hereafter referred to as yuan) respec-tively, and that in spatial distribution, the ecological capital decreases from the alpine zones to the plains and from the oases to the deserts, which accords with the zonal distribution of vegetation in arid areas. The measured results can more objectively reflect the ecological capital and its spatial distribution in arid areas, provide an ideal foundation for further study in the future, and can also be combined with the study on service functions of ecosystems and the regional planning as an important basis of regional planning.     

Quantitative assessment and analysis on the dynamic change of ecological capital in arid areas

Ecological capital is the summation of the direct value of biological resources and the ecological service function value of ecosystems. Under the support of RS, GPS and GIS, in this paper the RS-based quantitative measurement model of assessing ecological capital is developed based on the traditional ecology theory and the research on the value of ecological capital per unit area by using the ecological parameters including Landsat TM data, CBERS satellite data, meteorological data, MODIS satellite data, land cover data and field-measured data. A case study on the spatiotemporal distribution of ecological capital in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture in 1990, 1995 and 2003 is carried out, and the dynamic change of ecological capital in the prefecture is measured and compared with GDP. The maps of the spatial distribution of ecological capital in the study area are charted, and the characteristics of spatial distribution of ecological capital are analyzed. The results show that the values of ecological capital in the prefecture in 1990, 1995 and 2003 were 1.47368×10^11, 1.66160×10^11 and 1.77895×10^11 yuan RMB （hereafter referred to as yuan） respectively, and that in spatial distribution, the ecological capital decreases from the alpine zones to the plains and from the oases to the deserts, which accords with the zonal distribution of vegetation in arid areas. The measured results can more objectively reflect the ecological capital and its spatial distribution in arid areas, provide an ideal foundation for further study in the future, and can also be combined with the study on service functions of ecosystems and the regiona planning as an important basis of regional planning.     

气候变化背景下中巴经济走廊崩滑灾害危险性动态评价及预测

中巴经济走廊地处高山峡谷冰川地带,是全球气候变化最为敏感和复杂的地区。近年来,随着全球气候变暖,导致走廊内冰川融化、降雨增加,崩滑灾害频发,严重威胁着当地居民的安全和重大工程的顺利实施。以中巴经济走廊北部山区为研究区,在分析区域自然地质环境和崩滑灾害分布特征的基础上,选取相对高差、坡度、坡向、曲率、岩组、断裂带密度、河网密度、距冰川距离、地震加速度、土地利用10个评价因子,通过信息量-逻辑回归耦合模型对研究区进行了崩滑灾害静态危险性评价。在验证模型可靠性的基础上,引入动态降雨及气温对崩塌滑坡危险性的影响,进行了动态危险性评价和预测。结果表明：中巴经济走廊北部山区崩滑灾害的较高危险区主要集中在红其拉甫至哈维连一带坡度陡峭的山区和地形起伏大的河谷两岸。受气候变化的影响,研究区较高危险区面积占比总体呈波动上升趋势。相关成果对中巴经济走廊的发展规划及防灾减灾具有重要指导意义。     

用碳氧同位素对沱沱河盆地古近纪及新近纪早期气候变化的研究

鉴于目前对位于青藏高原上的沱沱河盆地研究不多,作者试用碳氧同位素比值的方法研究该地区新生代的始新世到中中新世这一时段内的气候环境变化情况.经过数据计算、图解和分析表明,沱沱河盆地从始新世到中中新世的气候环境变化可划分为两个阶段,即始新世-渐新世的炎热干燥气候期和中中新世的温暖湿润气候期.此研究结果将为进一步研究该地区的古环境变化提供依据.     

Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods

Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture.Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties,impeding effective decision-making to climate change.On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels,this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection,the assessment process,and the crop models linking to climate models.Meanwhile,techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced,and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out.Finally,in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture,improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.     

贵阳旱涝气候变化特征及其趋势分析

利用贵阳近500年(1470~2008年)旱涝等级资料,对贵阳旱涝展开气候变化特征及趋势分析。结果表明:近58年,贵阳出现极端旱、偏旱的频次明显高于过去近500年的平均状况;汛期出现偏旱和旱的次数明显增多,旱重于涝的趋势非常明显。从年代际和百年际尺度看,210年周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而50年周期是次周期,且20世纪80年代的干旱程度高于历史上任何一个年代;从年际和年代际尺度上,24年周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而7年周期是次周期。借助IPCC AR4最新的模式预估数据集,预估贵阳2011~2020年夏季降水处于旱涝交替频发期,且从本世纪20年代初至40年代中期将处于少雨阶段,可能会出现较长时期的干旱期。     

河北怀来盆地近60a气候变化特征及其影响

利用河北省怀来县1954—2012年月气象数据,采用线性倾向率法,距平法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法揭示了当地的气候变化特征;并分析了气候变化对水库来水量和粮食单产的关系.结果表明:1)近60年来,怀来县气候倾向率为0.36℃·(10a)-1,高于全国平均水平,年降水量呈下降趋势;从季节来看,四季气温均呈上升趋势,降水变化趋势存在差异,四季中以夏季暖干化趋势最明显.2)研究区年和四季年代均温都在1980—1989年开始变暖;年降水自1980—1989年开始减少,四季降水量的年代变化差异较大.3)研究区小区域尺度上的气候变化趋势与北方较大区域和全国尺度上的结果较为一致,并且暖干化趋势更加明显.4)气候要素与水库来水量和粮食单产显著相关,气候暖干化将加剧研究区水库来水锐减和粮食单产较低的问题.     

Microstructure and optical properties of Ag5In5Te47Sb33 phase change thin films with high reflection in thermal annealing process

The microstructure and optical properties of Ag-5In-5Te 47Sb 33 phase change films with high reflection in the thermal annealing process were systematically reported. The as_deposited film is amorphous and its crystalline temperature is 160℃. The annealed films are crystalline. The crystalline phases are AgInTe-2, AgSbTe-2 and Sb when annealed at low temperature. When annealed at 220℃, the AgInTe-2 phase disappears and the amount of AgSbTe-2 is the largest. The research of electronic transmission microscopy shows that the morphology of AgSbTe 2 is sphere and that of Sb is bludgeon. The reflection of the annealed films is higher and reaches its peak value at 220℃.     

夏热冬冷地区相变石膏板相变特性的模拟

基于焓法数值模型,利用Fluent软件模拟定形相变石膏板(PCP)在不同保温位置及不同相变温度时传热的热流密度及内表面温度情况,分析适用于夏热冬冷地区PCP的参数、不同相变温度与放置位置对外墙的隔热性能的影响。结果表明:相变材料最适宜的相变温度为27℃,在此相变温度下,同一时刻的内、外侧位置的内表面最大温差为0.9℃;相变温度为27℃的墙体比普通墙体约节能27.6%,此时相变材料潜热利用率为38.7%。