全球气候变化下的半干旱区相对湿度变化研究

为揭示全球气候变化下半干旱区空气相对湿度的变化规律,利用线性回归分析、多元线性相关分析以及M-K检验法对吉林省西部5个站点的1953年以来的相对湿度、气温、降水和风速资料进行了研究.结果表明:相对湿度的年变化曲线呈双峰型,相对湿度的最大值出现在8月,次大值出现在1月,最小值出现在4月,次小值出现在10月.夏、秋季的相对湿度较大,而春、冬季的相对湿度较小.近50年,年平均相对湿度及春、夏、秋、冬四季的相对湿度在波动中下降,下降趋势不显著;但是9月和10月的平均相对湿度下降显著.影响相对湿度变化的主要因子是温度和降水,风速也起一定的作用.相对湿度的变化与温度和风速变化呈负相关关系,与降水变化呈正相关关系.     

基于CMIP5全球气候模式的中国典型区域干湿变化分析

基于CMIP5多全球气候模式数值模拟结果,包括空间分辨率0.5°的逐月历史气候数据和RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下未来气候变化预估数据,利用潜在蒸散发和降水量构建能够表征地表干湿状况的湿润指数,对中国东部季风区7个典型区1901—2100年干湿变化趋势进行了模拟和分析.结果表明:各分区在1901—2005年湿润指数均呈现下降趋势,其中珠江、长江、淮河流域变化较为平缓,黄河、海河流域和东北地区波动较大.可见在过去的100多年中,东部季风区整体上呈现不同程度的干旱化.在2006—2100年不同温室气体排放情景下,各分区的湿润指数呈现不同程度的波动,除了黄河上游地区湿润指数呈现增长趋势外,其他区域没有明显的变湿趋势.     

中国干旱半干旱区地理信息资源开发利用初探

干旱半干旱区有着丰富的地理信息资源,信息社会的到来和市场经济的发展,为地理信息资源的开发利用提供了机遇和条件,科学技术的高速发展也使地理信息资源的开发利用具有了新的技术手段．结合本地区的特点,阐述了干旱半干旱区地理信息资源的特征,提出了合理开发地理信息资源的有效途径     

干旱半干旱地区土壤矿物组成特征及其环境意义

对处于干旱、半干旱地区的甘肃省15个地点的灰钙土、栗钙土、黑垆土、灰褐土和黄绵土等不同类型土壤剖面进行了机械组成分析、矿物组成显微鉴定和粘土矿物X射线衍射分析.结果表明:土壤机械组成以粉砂为主,粘粒次之;栗钙土、灰钙土、黑钙土和灰褐土等于旱地区典型土壤中表层的粘粒质量分数相对较低,土壤原生矿物组成以石英为主,绿帘石等蚀变矿物质量分数较高,次生矿物含有较高的石膏和方解石等;粘土矿物主要为伊利石、绿泥石、高岭石和蒙脱石.土壤机械组成、矿物组成和粘土矿物组成表明:干旱、半干旱地区土壤为黄土母质,土壤形成条件为碱性环境、较弱的淋滤作用和干冷气候,近代强烈的风蚀作用(或沙尘暴)和大气污染对土壤有一定程度的改造.     

中国干旱半干旱地区地理环境建设战略意义初探

根据我国干旱半干旱区的地理位置和基本自然条件,论述了该区域自然环境稳定性差、气候旱化趋势强、资源与环境协调性差和有效环境容量小等特征,指出该区域对我国地理环境的影响;由此认为加强我国干旱半干旱区地理环境建设,不仅对该区域而且对全国的可持续发展均具有重要的战略意义,并提出进行地理环境建设的基本措施．     

Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.     

Quantitative assessment and analysis on the dynamic change of ecological capital in arid areas

Ecological capital is the summation of the direct value of biological resources and the ecological service function value of ecosystems. Under the support of RS, GPS and GIS, in this paper the RS-based quantitative measurement model of assessing ecological capital is developed based on the traditional ecology theory and the research on the value of ecological capital per unit area by using the ecological parameters including Landsat TM data, CBERS satellite data, meteorological data, MODIS satellite data, land cover data and field-measured data. A case study on the spatiotemporal distribution of ecological capital in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture in 1990, 1995 and 2003 is carried out, and the dynamic change of ecological capital in the prefecture is measured and compared with GDP. The maps of the spatial distribution of ecological capital in the study area are charted, and the characteristics of spatial distribution of ecological capital are analyzed. The results show that the values of ecological capital in the prefecture in 1990, 1995 and 2003 were 1.47368×10^11, 1.66160×10^11 and 1.77895×10^11 yuan RMB （hereafter referred to as yuan） respectively, and that in spatial distribution, the ecological capital decreases from the alpine zones to the plains and from the oases to the deserts, which accords with the zonal distribution of vegetation in arid areas. The measured results can more objectively reflect the ecological capital and its spatial distribution in arid areas, provide an ideal foundation for further study in the future, and can also be combined with the study on service functions of ecosystems and the regiona planning as an important basis of regional planning.     

用碳氧同位素对沱沱河盆地古近纪及新近纪早期气候变化的研究

鉴于目前对位于青藏高原上的沱沱河盆地研究不多,作者试用碳氧同位素比值的方法研究该地区新生代的始新世到中中新世这一时段内的气候环境变化情况.经过数据计算、图解和分析表明,沱沱河盆地从始新世到中中新世的气候环境变化可划分为两个阶段,即始新世-渐新世的炎热干燥气候期和中中新世的温暖湿润气候期.此研究结果将为进一步研究该地区的古环境变化提供依据.     

Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods

Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture.Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties,impeding effective decision-making to climate change.On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels,this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection,the assessment process,and the crop models linking to climate models.Meanwhile,techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced,and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out.Finally,in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture,improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.     

贵阳旱涝气候变化特征及其趋势分析

利用贵阳近500年(1470~2008年)旱涝等级资料,对贵阳旱涝展开气候变化特征及趋势分析。结果表明:近58年,贵阳出现极端旱、偏旱的频次明显高于过去近500年的平均状况;汛期出现偏旱和旱的次数明显增多,旱重于涝的趋势非常明显。从年代际和百年际尺度看,210年周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而50年周期是次周期,且20世纪80年代的干旱程度高于历史上任何一个年代;从年际和年代际尺度上,24年周期是贵阳旱涝振荡的主周期,而7年周期是次周期。借助IPCC AR4最新的模式预估数据集,预估贵阳2011~2020年夏季降水处于旱涝交替频发期,且从本世纪20年代初至40年代中期将处于少雨阶段,可能会出现较长时期的干旱期。     

生态脆弱型贫困区社会经济地域系统的特征与作用机制--以陇南地区为例

经济贫困与文化贫困的叠加与互制,是陇南社会经济地域系统落后的外在表现;社会经济结构的单一性使系统的结构功能不完善,而结构演潜的延滞性进一步恶化了地域系统的协调性;区域基础设施的残缺不全和人文思想意识的落后,使地域系统表现为强烈的封闭性;地域组织的离散性,使地域系统内部的整合力受到抑制,而区域中心城镇发育不足、城乡互动机制的弱化,进一步降低了地域系统的协调能力.