Inverse correlation between ancient winter and summer monsoons in East Asia？

There is a scientific debate on the relationship between ancient winter and summer monsoons in East Asia. Some scholars think that East Asian winter and summer monsoons are anti-correlated, and others think not. For this reason, this study is motivated to assess their linkage from the paleoclimate simulation perspective, through analyzing the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM） and mid-Holocene （MH） climate simulated by CCSM3 model. Compared to the present climate, the Aleutian low is found to be deepened and the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） is stronger during the LGM winter. The Pacific high in summer is noticed to be weakened and the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is weaker at the LGM. During the MH, the Aleutian low and the Asian high in winter are intensified, and the Asian low and the Pacific high in summer are enhanced, indicating that the EAWM and EASM are both stronger than today. Therefore, the EAWM is not always negatively correlated to the EASM. Their relationship may be different at different geological stages. It can be obtained at least from the numerical simulation results that the EAWM and the EASM is negatively correlated during the cooling period, while positively correlated during the warming period.     

Reduction of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability after the mid-1980s and possible cause

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) consists of subsystems such as the Siberian high, Aleutian low, East Asian trough, low-level northerly wind and high-level East Asian jet stream. It is revealed that the interannual variation of the EAWM-related atmospheric circulation has exhibited an obvious weakening since the mid-1980s. During 1956-1980, significant negative correlations between the EAWM and sea surface temperature are observed in the oceans along the east coast of East Asia, accompanied by significant positive correlations in the western Warm Pool. However, the significant interannual relationship in the previous period is found to have been disrupted during 1986-2010. Further analysis reveals that the Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1980s tends to suppress the interannual variability of the EAWM. In addition, it was found that the large-scale warming after the mid-1980s is favorable to reduce the land-sea thermal contrast variability on both the interdecadal and interannual time scales.     

The increase of snowfall in Northeast China after the mid-1980s

We studied long-term variation of winter snowfall in Northeast China (NEC) for 1951-2010. Results show that NEC snowfall increased about 20% during 1986-2010 relative to 1951-1985. Further investigation suggests that the snowfall increase is closely associated with weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The physical processes were portrayed by this research. Weakening of EAWM led to weakened cold air flow from the north, thus resulted in the warming of the surface ocean along the Northeast Asia coast and more water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface to the atmosphere and further transported to NEC. Also, because of EAWM weakening, more water vapor from south, east and west of NEC was transported to NEC, increasing water vapor content and hence snowfall there. From an atmospheric circulation viewpoint, EAWM weakening strengthened convergence at low levels and divergence at high levels, thereby favoring increased vertical convection and snowfall.     

Weakening relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s

The East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) is characterized by the frequent cold surges and associated closely with the Siberia High,East Asian Trough,and high-level westerly jet stream.The ENSO cycle can modulate the EAWM since it has co-variability with the sea surface temperature over the Indo-Western-Pacific which can tune the land-sea thermal contrast for the EAWM.This paper,by analyzing the EAWM,ENSO,and associated atmosphere-ocean variability,documents the weakening of the EAWMENSO relationship after the 1970s.The significant out-of-phase inter-relationship is found to be diminished after the 1970s.Further study in this work suggests that the weakened co-variability of the tropical Indo-Western-Pacific climate associated with ENSO after the 1970s is partly responsible for the weakened inter-relationship.Meanwhile,the reduced EAWM interannual variability and northward retreat of the EAWM-associated climate variability are favorable to the weakened ENSO-EAWM connection.     

Records of the East Asian winter monsoon from the mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea since the mid-Holocene

AMS¹⁴C dating and analysis of grain size, major elements and clay minerals were applied to Core MZ01 from the mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea. Based on the environmentally sensitive grain size, clay mineral and major element assemblages, the history of the East Asia winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene could be reconstructed. These three proxies, mean grain size (>9.71 μm), chemical index of alteration (CIA) and ratio of smectite to kaolinite in particular, show similar fluctuation patterns. Furthermore, 10 extreme values corresponding to the contemporary cooling events could be recognized since the mid-Holocene; these extreme values are likely to have been caused by the strengthening of the East Asia winter monsoon. The cooling events correlated well with the results of the δ¹⁸O curves of the Dunde ice core and GISP2, which therefore revealed a regional response to global climate change. Four stages of the East Asia winter monsoon were identified, i.e. 8300–6300 a BP, strong and unstable; 6300–3800 a BP, strong but stable; 3800–1400 a BP, weak and unstable; after 1400 a BP, weak but stable.     

Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter surface air temperature and possible causes

Using the NCEP/NCAR and JRA-25 monthly analysis data from 1979 to 2011, this paper analyzes the interdecadal variations of winter (Dec.–Feb.) mean surface air temperature (SAT) over East Asia by means of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis method. Two dominant modes were extracted, with the leading mode basically depicting a sign consistent SAT variation and the second mode describing a meridional dipole structure between the northern and southern parts of East Asia. These two modes can explain more than 60% of the variance. The leading mode is closely related to the intensity of Siberian high and the East Asian winter monsoon. The second mode exhibits a notable interdecadal shift in the late 1990s, with a turning point around 1996/1997. Winter SAT in the northern (southern) part of East Asia tends to be cooler (warmer) since the late 1990. Winter sea level pressure (SLP) differences between 1997–2011 and 1979–1996 show negative (positive) anomalies over southern (northern) Eurasia. At 500-hPa, an anomalous blocking high occurs over northern Eurasia, while a cyclone anomaly appears over northern East Asia. In addition, the upper-level East Asian jet stream tends to shift northward and become stronger after the late 1990. Indeed, the interdecadal shift of winter SAT over East Asia is dynamical consistent with changes of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the late 1990s. The result indicates that previous autumn sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean, the Northern Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean, as well as sea ice concentration (SIC) in the northern Eurasia marginal seas and the Beaufort Sea also experienced obvious changes in the late 1990s. In particular, the interdecadal shifts of both SST in the North Atlantic Ocean and SIC in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas are well coherent with that of the winter SAT over East Asia. The results indicate that the interdecadal shift of East Asian winter SAT may be related to changes in the North Atlantic SST and the Arctic SIC in the late 1990s.     

Spring surface cooling trend along the East Asian coast after the late 1990s

This paper presents the surface cooling trend observed in spring along East Asia coast after the late 1990s, in contrast to the global warming trend. This surface cooling trend is comprehensible as it agrees well with the cooling of sea surface temperature (SST) in the northwestern Pacific and the weakening of 300 hPa East Asian jet (EAJ) during spring. Moreover, this cooling phenomenon has been shown to be related to the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) in previous autumns. The Arctic SIC signals in previous autumns can continue in spring and act as enhanced moisture sources that support the increased snow cover in Siberia during spring. The increased Siberian snow cover possibly favors the southward invasion of cold air masses via strong radiative cooling and large-scale descending motion, which may contribute indirectly to the reduction of temperature in East Asia. In addition, three climate models that can reproduce well the East Asian spring surface cooling observed in the past predicted uncertainty in the spring temperature projection in the next decade.     

East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens (strengthens) north (south) of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased north- west-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.     

Recent 2000-year geological records of mud in the inner shelf of the East China Sea and their climatic implications

AMS^14C dating and grain-size analysis for Core DD2, located at the north of the Yangtze River-derived mud off the Zhejiang-Fujian coasts in the inner shelf of the East China Sea, provide us a high-resolution grain-size distribution curve varying with depth and time. Data in the upper mud layer of Core DD2 indicate that there are at least 9 abrupt grain-size increasing in recent 2000 years, with each corresponding very well with the low-temperature events in Chinese history, which might result from the periodical strengthening of the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), including the first-revealed maximum temperature lowering event at around 990 a BP. At the same time, the finer grain size section in Core DD2 agrees well with the Sui-Tang Warming Period (600--1000 a AD) defined previously by Zhu Kezhen, during which the climate had a warm, cold and warm fluctuation, with a dominated cooling period of 750-850 a AD. The Little Ice Age (LIA) can also be identified in the core. It starts around 1450 a AD and was followed by a subsequent cooling events at 1510, 1670 and 1840 a AD. Timing of these cold events revealed here still needs to be further verified owing to some current uncertainty of dating we used in this study.     

Anomalous activity of East Asian winter monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTA

The relationship between the anomalous East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) activity and the tropical Pacific SST anomalies has been identified using the results of 40-year integration of the IAP CGCM1 model and 10-year observational data. In the strong EAWM year, the western and central Pacific are dominated by positive SST anomalies while the eastern Pacific is negative ones. In the weak EAWM year, the SSTA pattern is quite different and shows El Nino-like SST anomalies. The strong EAWM activity tends to create extra easterly flow to the east and extra westerly flow to the west of the warm SSTA region over the equatorial western and central Pacific, thus leading to the enhancement of convergence and convection of the flow in this region and favorable to the maintenance and development of such an SSTA pattern. On the other hand, the warm SST anomaly over the western and central Pacific, as a forcing, may lead to a specific pattern of the northern extratropical atmosphere, which is favorable to the strong EAWM activity. The tropical Pacific SSTA pattern related closely to the strong EAWM activity differs significantly from that of the La Nina year.     

从陆架泥质沉积中寻找高分辨率的全新世东亚季风记录

当前对全新世东亚季风的研究,一是重造了不同地区的季风气候与环境特点,分析、划分了不同的阶段并总结了各阶段的特点;二是通过高分辨率的气候代用指标进一步开展定量古气候研究,揭示其变化与周期,探讨其驱动机制.已有的研究主要来自陆地,而利用海洋沉积物研究季风则集中在深海;且主要体现的是气候整体变化特征或侧重于夏季风,而专门论述全新世东亚冬季风的报道则较少;尚未在短时间尺度上有效地确定全新世东亚冬、夏季风的关系及其驱动机制.该文指出,可以利用中国边缘海陆架泥质沉积开展全新世高分辨率的东亚古季风研究,其粒度和Rb/Sr比值等元素地球化学指标可分别作为高分辨率的东亚冬、夏季风演化的替代性指标.     

Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High

The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas. Our results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia. Numerical experiments also support this conclusion, and consistently show that the low sea ice concentration causes negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High. Our results also show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted using only tropical sea surface temperatures. In the last two decades (1990–2009), a strengthening trend of winter Siberian High along with a decline trend in surface air temperature in the mid-high latitudes of the Asian Continent have favored the recent frequent cold winters over East Asia. The reason for these short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed.     

Palaeoclimate simulation of Little Ice Age

Promotedbytheinternationalresearch projectsofPAGESandCLIVAR ,thestudiesonclimaticandenvironmentalchangesinthepast 2 0 0 0yearshavedrawntheattentionofgeologistsandpalaeoclimato logistsallovertheworld[1,2 ] .AmongthemthecoldeventoftheLittleIceAge (LIA)isparticularlythemostattractiveone[3～ 10 ] ,whichisthenearesttypicalcoldperiodintheglobalrangefrommodernage ,andhadaprofoundimpactuponhumansociety[11] .Addi tionally ,moreknowledgeaboutthecauseoforiginanddynamicmechanismofLIAmayenrichandpe…     

Short-term climatic impacts of afforestation in the East Asian monsoon region

The influence of changes in vegetation cover on short-term climate over the East Asian monsoon region is simulated using the Community Climate System Model Version 3.5.The results show the annual mean surface air temperature significantly decreases by 0.93°C in response to afforestation over the East Asian monsoon region.Also,surface air temperature decreases by 1.46 and 0.40°C in summer and winter,respectively.The cooling is caused by enhanced evapotranspiration(ET) produced by increased forest cover.Evapotranspiration is greater in summer than in winter,so summer cooling is greater than winter cooling.The annual mean precipitation increases in response to afforestation,with a maximum of 7% in April.Water vapor increases significantly because of greater latent heat flux release.Meanwhile,afforestation leads to higher surface roughness,which decreases surface wind speed and induces an ascending air motion.These factors can produce more clouds and precipitation.Moreover,the surface albedo and the reflective solar radiation are reduced in response to afforestation.     

中国冬季降水对东亚春季O3强弱信号的响应

 利用欧洲中心(ECMWF)ERA-Interim提供的1979—2013年的O₃、温度和位势高度逐月资料及国家气候中心的160站的逐月降水资料,采用EOF分析、相关分析和合成差值分析等方法,分析了东亚春季臭氧的时空变化特征及中国冬季降水对东亚春季O3强弱信号的响应.研究发现：①通过EOF分析可知,东亚春季O₃主要有3种变化特征：其一是东亚春季不同时间的O₃随着纬度的增加而增加（或减少）.其二是青藏高原是一个O₃异常信号较强的地区.其三是鄂霍次克海以西的内陆地区和中国东北部地区的春季O₃异常信号最强,且这两地区的异常信号位相相反.②东亚春季O₃强时,中国冬季降水从西到东呈现了“多-少-多-少-多-少”的分布.这种响应显著的区域位于北方和内陆地区,而中国的东南地区较弱.这就说明,东亚春季O₃对中国冬季降水是有一定的影响的.O₃是如何引起中国冬季降水出现这种波列分布的原因尚有待于进一步的研究.③选取了6个层次分别代表平流层和对流层来开展研究.从相应于O₃强弱年的温压场分析来看,北半球冬季的温度场和位势高度场的合成差值在中高纬度都呈现了波列的分布,在平流层呈“正-负-正”分布,在对流层呈“负-正-负-正-负”分布,且这种温压场对O₃变化的响应在50、100、500hPa和700hPa层次最为显著.据此推测,东亚春季O3变化会引起北半球的温度场和位势高度场的调整,从而使得中国冬季降水分布出现异常.
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Onset of Asian desertification by 22 Myr ago inferred from loess deposits in China

The initial desertification in the Asian interior is thought to be one of the most prominent climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere during the Cenozoic era. But the dating of this transition is uncertain, partly because desert sediments are usually scattered, discontinuous and difficult to date. Here we report nearly continuous aeolian deposits covering the interval from 22 to 6.2 million years ago, on the basis of palaeomagnetic measurements and fossil evidence. A total of 231 visually definable aeolian layers occur as brownish loesses interbedded with reddish soils. This new evidence indicates that large source areas of aeolian dust and energetic winter monsoon winds to transport the material must have existed in the interior of Asia by the early Miocene epoch, at least 14 million years earlier than previously thought. Regional tectonic changes and ongoing global cooling are probable causes of these changes in aridity and circulation in Asia.     

Sea surface temperature record from the north of the East China Sea since late Holocene

Using the alkenone paleotemperature index U37^k, a high-resolution sea surface temperature （SST） record since 3600 a BP was reconstructed from the mud area in the north of the East China Sea. Combining with the grain size distribution curve of sensitive grain size group, which may reflect the East Asia Winter Monsoon activity, the palaeoenvironmental evolution cycle throughout the late Holocene in the area was obtained. The marine environment evolution during the last 3600 years displays a five-stage trend. （1） Temperature descending period from 0.85 cal. ka BP to present. The maximum temperature decrease amplitude is 2℃. The winter monsoon intensified and ＇Little Ice Age＇ were recorded in this period. （2） Warming period from 1.90 to 0.85 cal. ka BP. The mean temperature increase amplitude is 0.8℃. The Sui-Tang warming period was recorded at about 0.85--1.35 cal. ka BP and a prominent cooling event was recorded at 1.4 cal. ka BP in this period. （3） Temperature descending period from 2.55 to 1.90 cal. ka BP. Temperature cooling amplitude is 0.9℃. This period is coincident with an integrated temperature circle recorded in the Antarctic ice core, with the temperature changes from a slow cooling stage to a rapid warming stage. （4） Temperature comparatively stable with a little ascending period from 3.2 to 2.55 cal. ka BP. Temperature warming amplitude is 0.3℃. This period is coincident with the temperature fluctuant ascending period recorded in Antarctic ice core. （5） Temperature comparatively stable with little descending period from 3.6 to 3.2 cal. ka BP. This period corresponds with the temperature fluctuant cooling period recorded in Antarctic ice core. Basically, those five periods were coincident with the Antarctic ice core record. During the global cooling stage, the SST change in the continental shelf sea can be adjusted simultaneously.     

The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia

With the warm/cold phases of the El Ni o and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a background, the impacts of monthly variation in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia are studied with the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 data and the Chinese station data regarding temperature and rainfall. The combined effects of ENSO and the AO indicate that the winter climate anomalies are mainly influenced by the AO in northern China and the ENSO in southern China, when an El Ni o couples with a negative AO month or a La Ni a couples with a positive AO month. These climate anomalies in China are consistent with the mechanisms proposed in previous studies. However, most of China presents a different pattern of climate anomalies if an El Ni o couples with a positive AO month or a La Ni a couples with a negative AO month, with the exception of the temperature anomalies in northern China, which are still affected dominantly by the AO. Further analysis suggests that the causes are attributed to the differences in both the stratosphere-troposphere interaction and the extratropics-tropics interaction. In the former cases, zonal symmetric circulation prevails in the winter and the extratropics-tropics interaction is weakened. Thus, the influences of the ENSO and the AO on the East Asian climate mainly present linear combination effects. On the contrary, an annular mode of atmospheric circulation is not favored in the latter cases and the extratropics-tropics interaction is strong. Hence, the combined effects of the ENSO and the AO on the winter climate in East Asia present nonlinear characteristics.     

亚欧大陆经向热力差异对亚洲季风影响的研究 Ⅱ:对东亚夏季风的影响

 通过比较亚欧大陆经向热力异常年份冬季及后期热力场、海温和对流活动的变化特征后,初步得出如下结论:亚欧大陆南、北区域间的热力差异从冬季持续到春季,一般在4月份减弱消失.由于后期初夏和夏季的热带海温和东亚地区空间热力分布的不同,引起经向环流异常,从而导致东亚地区季风转换及降水分布的不同.     

Sea surface temperature records of core ZY2 from the central mud area in the South Yellow Sea during last 6200 years and related effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current

Sea surface temperature (SST) records in the South Yellow Sea during the last 6200 years are reconstructed by the unsaturation index of long-chain alkenones (K 37 U ’) in sediment core ZY2 from the central mud area.The SST records varied between 14.1 and 16.5°C (15.6°C on average),with 3 phases:(1) A high SST phase at 6.2-5.9 cal ka BP;(2) A low and intensely fluctuating SST phase at 5.9-2.3 cal ka BP;and (3) A high and stable SST phase since 2.3 cal ka BP.Variation of the SST records is similar to intensity of the Kuroshio Current (KC),and corresponds well in time to global cold climate events.However,the amplitude of the SST response to cooling events was significantly different in different phases.The SST response to global cooling event was weak while the KC was strong;and the SST response was strong while the KC was weak.The difference in amplitude of the SST response is possibly caused by the modulation effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current which acts as a shelf branch of the KC and a compensating current induced by the East Asia winter monsoon.The warm waters brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current cushion the SST decrease induced by climate cooling,and both the Kuroshio and East Asian winter monsoon play important roles in the modulation mechanism.The SST records display a periodicity of 1482 years.The same period was found in the KC records,indicating that variation of the SST records in the central South Yellow Sea is strongly affected by KC intensity.The same period was also found in Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic and Arabian Sea sediment cores,showing a regional response of marine environmental variability in the East China Seas to that in the global oceans.