Meteoric smoke fallout over the Holocene epoch revealed by iridium and platinum in Greenland ice

An iridium anomaly at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary layer has been attributed to an extraterrestrial body that struck the Earth some 65 million years ago. It has been suggested that, during this event, the carrier of iridium was probably a micrometre-sized silicate-enclosed aggregate or the nanophase material of the vaporized impactor. But the fate of platinum-group elements (such as iridium) that regularly enter the atmosphere via ablating meteoroids remains largely unknown. Here we report a record of iridium and platinum fluxes on a climatic-cycle timescale, back to 128,000 years ago, from a Greenland ice core. We find that unexpectedly constant fallout of extraterrestrial matter to Greenland occurred during the Holocene, whereas a greatly enhanced input of terrestrial iridium and platinum masked the cosmic flux in the dust-laden atmosphere of the last glacial age. We suggest that nanometre-sized meteoric smoke particles, formed from the recondensation of ablated meteoroids in the atmosphere at altitudes >70 kilometres, are transported into the winter polar vortices by the mesospheric meridional circulation and are preferentially deposited in the polar ice caps. This implies an average global fallout of 14 +/- 5 kilotons per year of meteoric smoke during the Holocene.     

Decline of surface temperature and salinity in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in the Holocene epoch

In the present-day climate, surface water salinities are low in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and increase towards the eastern part of the basin. The salinity of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean is thought to be controlled by a combination of atmospheric convection, precipitation, evaporation and ocean dynamics, and on interannual timescales significant variability is associated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation cycles. However, little is known about the variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of centuries to millennia. Here we combine oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data from foraminifers retrieved from three sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific Ocean to reconstruct Holocene sea surface temperatures and salinities in the region. We find a decrease in sea surface temperatures of approximately 0.5 degrees C over the past 10,000 yr, whereas sea surface salinities decreased by approximately 1.5 practical salinity units. Our data imply either that the Pacific basin as a whole has become progressively less salty or that the present salinity gradient along the Equator has developed relatively recently.     

Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole during the Holocene epoch

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)--an oscillatory mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability--causes climatic extremes and socio-economic hardship throughout the tropical Indian Ocean region. There is much debate about how the IOD interacts with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Asian monsoon, and recent changes in the historic ENSO-monsoon relationship raise the possibility that the properties of the IOD may also be evolving. Improving our understanding of IOD events and their climatic impacts thus requires the development of records defining IOD activity in different climatic settings, including prehistoric times when ENSO and the Asian monsoon behaved differently from the present day. Here we use coral geochemical records from the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean to reconstruct surface-ocean cooling and drought during individual IOD events over the past approximately 6,500 years. We find that IOD events during the middle Holocene were characterized by a longer duration of strong surface ocean cooling, together with droughts that peaked later than those expected by El Ni?o forcing alone. Climate model simulations suggest that this enhanced cooling and drying was the result of strong cross-equatorial winds driven by the strengthened Asian monsoon of the middle Holocene. These IOD-monsoon connections imply that the socioeconomic impacts of projected future changes in Asian monsoon strength may extend throughout Australasia.     

Millennial-scale storminess variability in the northeastern United States during the Holocene epoch

For the purpose of detecting the effects of human activities on climate change, it is important to document natural change in past climate. In this context, it has proved particularly difficult to study the variability in the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms with exceptional rainfall. Previous investigations have established storm chronologies using sediment cores from single lakes, but such studies can be susceptible to local environmental bias. Here we date terrigenous inwash layers in cores from 13 lakes, which show that the frequency of storm-related floods in the northeastern United States has varied in regular cycles during the past 13,000 years (13 kyr), with a characteristic period of about 3 kyr. Our data show four peaks in storminess during the past 14 kyr, approximately 2.6, 5.8, 9.1 and 11.9 kyr ago. This pattern is consistent with long-term changes in the average sign of the Arctic Oscillation, suggesting that modulation of this dominant atmospheric mode may account for a significant fraction of Holocene climate variability in North America and Europe.     

Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming

As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.     

The climatic variations and development of yellow soil in Beibei since the Holocene epoch

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Stability of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch

The stability of the Antarctic ice shelves in a warming climate has long been discussed, and the recent collapse of a significant part, over 12,500 km2 in area, of the Larsen ice shelf off the Antarctic Peninsula has led to a refocus toward the implications of ice shelf decay for the stability of Antarctica's grounded ice. Some smaller Antarctic ice shelves have undergone periodic growth and decay over the past 11,000 yr (refs 7-11), but these ice shelves are at the climatic limit of ice shelf viability and are therefore expected to respond rapidly to natural climate variability at century to millennial scales. Here we use records of diatoms, detrital material and geochemical parameters from six marine sediment cores in the vicinity of the Larsen ice shelf to demonstrate that the recent collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf is unprecedented during the Holocene. We infer from our oxygen isotope measurements in planktonic foraminifera that the Larsen B ice shelf has been thinning throughout the Holocene, and we suggest that the recent prolonged period of warming in the Antarctic Peninsula region, in combination with the long-term thinning, has led to collapse of the ice shelf.     

Eocene global warming events driven by ventilation of oceanic dissolved organic carbon

'Hyperthermals' are intervals of rapid, pronounced global warming known from six episodes within the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs (～65-34 million years (Myr) ago). The most extreme hyperthermal was the ～170 thousand year (kyr) interval of 5-7 °C global warming during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56?Myr ago). The PETM is widely attributed to massive release of greenhouse gases from buried sedimentary carbon reservoirs, and other, comparatively modest, hyperthermals have also been linked to the release of sedimentary carbon. Here we show, using new 2.4-Myr-long Eocene deep ocean records, that the comparatively modest hyperthermals are much more numerous than previously documented, paced by the eccentricity of Earth's orbit and have shorter durations (～40?kyr) and more rapid recovery phases than the PETM. These findings point to the operation of fundamentally different forcing and feedback mechanisms than for the PETM, involving redistribution of carbon among Earth's readily exchangeable surface reservoirs rather than carbon exhumation from, and subsequent burial back into, the sedimentary reservoir. Specifically, we interpret our records to indicate repeated, large-scale releases of dissolved organic carbon (at least 1,600 gigatonnes) from the ocean by ventilation (strengthened oxidation) of the ocean interior. The rapid recovery of the carbon cycle following each Eocene hyperthermal strongly suggests that carbon was re-sequestered by the ocean, rather than the much slower process of silicate rock weathering proposed for the PETM. Our findings suggest that these pronounced climate warming events were driven not by repeated releases of carbon from buried sedimentary sources, but, rather, by patterns of surficial carbon redistribution familiar from younger intervals of Earth history.     

Features of tropical cyclone landfalls over East Asia corresponding to three types of Pacific warming decaying phase

This study examines the tropical cyclone （TC） landfall activities over the East Asia in three types of decaying phase of warm sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific： eastern Pacific warming decaying to La Nifia, eastern Pacific warming decaying to a neutral E1 Nifio-Southern Oscilla- tion phase, and a central Pacific warming decaying year. Results show that, for the type of eastern Pacific wanning decaying to La Nifia, more TCs make landfall over Hainan Island and Beibu Gulf, whereas fewer TCs reach eastern China coast. In particular, the number of landfalling TCs remarkably decreases in the decaying phase of eastern Pacific E1 Nifio to a neutral year. During the decaying phase of central Pacific E1 Nifio events, more TCs tend to make landfall over southern China, Indochina Peninsula and the Philippines. The anomalies of atmospheric circu- lation and environmental conditions induced by the SSTAs over the tropical Pacific in the different decaying types are responsible for the evident variation in features of TC landfall.     

Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently 'anomalous' increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000?years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records. Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical or boreal sources. Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000?years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000-130,000?years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000?years before the industrial era.     

The Earth's 'hum' is driven by ocean waves over the continental shelves

Observations show that the seismic normal modes of the Earth at frequencies near 10 mHz are excited at a nearly constant level in the absence of large earthquakes. This background level of excitation has been called the 'hum' of the Earth, and is equivalent to the maximum excitation from a magnitude 5.75 earthquake. Its origin is debated, with most studies attributing the forcing to atmospheric turbulence, analogous to the forcing of solar oscillations by solar turbulence. Some reports also predicted that turbulence might excite the planetary modes of Mars to detectable levels. Recent observations on Earth, however, suggest that the predominant excitation source lies under the oceans. Here I show that turbulence is a very weak source, and instead it is interacting ocean waves over the shallow continental shelves that drive the hum of the Earth. Ocean waves couple into seismic waves through the quadratic nonlinearity of the surface boundary condition, which couples pairs of slowly propagating ocean waves of similar frequency to a high phase velocity component at approximately double the frequency. This is the process by which ocean waves generate the well known 'microseism peak' that dominates the seismic spectrum near 140 mHz (refs 11, 12), but at hum frequencies, the mechanism differs significantly in frequency and depth dependence. A calculation of the coupling between ocean waves and seismic modes reproduces the seismic spectrum observed. Measurements of the temporal correlation between ocean wave data and seismic data have confirmed that ocean waves, rather than atmospheric turbulence, are driving the modes of the Earth.     

Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black carbon and tropospheric ozone

Observational analyses have shown the width of the tropical belt increasing in recent decades as the world has warmed. This expansion is important because it is associated with shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation and major climate zones. Although recent studies have attributed tropical expansion in the Southern Hemisphere to ozone depletion, the drivers of Northern Hemisphere expansion are not well known and the expansion has not so far been reproduced by climate models. Here we use a climate model with detailed aerosol physics to show that increases in heterogeneous warming agents--including black carbon aerosols and tropospheric ozone--are noticeably better than greenhouse gases at driving expansion, and can account for the observed summertime maximum in tropical expansion. Mechanistically, atmospheric heating from black carbon and tropospheric ozone has occurred at the mid-latitudes, generating a poleward shift of the tropospheric jet, thereby relocating the main division between tropical and temperate air masses. Although we still underestimate tropical expansion, the true aerosol forcing is poorly known and could also be underestimated. Thus, although the insensitivity of models needs further investigation, black carbon and tropospheric ozone, both of which are strongly influenced by human activities, are the most likely causes of observed Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion.     

Ammonium record over the last 96 years from the muztagata glacier in Central Asia

As a major alkaline gas in the atmosphere, ammonia （NH3） plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. However, there is little knowledge about NH3 variations in the Central Asia. Here we analyzed the ammonium （NH4^＋） history recorded in an ice core from the East Pamir in Central Asia, which was drilled on the Mt. Muztagata at the elevation of 7010 m a.s.I, in 2003. The core was carefully dated and NH; concentration history during 1907-2002 was reconstructed. The result shows that NH; concentration remained approximately constant until the 1930s after a sudden decrease at the very beginning of the 20th century, followed by a minimum in 1940 before increasing steadily to the peak at the end of 1990s. It is found that the annual mean NH4^＋ concentration was strongly associated with the Northern Hemisphere temperature, suggesting the impact of temperature on NH3 emissions in the Central Asia. Moreover, an increase of NH4^＋ concentration after 1940 also reflects the enhancement of NH3 emissions from anthropogenic sources such as fertilizer applications and livestock wastes in the 20th century.     

Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests

Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation, although the magnitude of the effect is model and resolution dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.     

Extensive halogen-mediated ozone destruction over the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Increasing tropospheric ozone levels over the past 150 years have led to a significant climate perturbation; the prediction of future trends in tropospheric ozone will require a full understanding of both its precursor emissions and its destruction processes. A large proportion of tropospheric ozone loss occurs in the tropical marine boundary layer and is thought to be driven primarily by high ozone photolysis rates in the presence of high concentrations of water vapour. A further reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden through bromine and iodine emitted from open-ocean marine sources has been postulated by numerical models, but thus far has not been verified by observations. Here we report eight months of spectroscopic measurements at the Cape Verde Observatory indicative of the ubiquitous daytime presence of bromine monoxide and iodine monoxide in the tropical marine boundary layer. A year-round data set of co-located in situ surface trace gas measurements made in conjunction with low-level aircraft observations shows that the mean daily observed ozone loss is approximately 50 per cent greater than that simulated by a global chemistry model using a classical photochemistry scheme that excludes halogen chemistry. We perform box model calculations that indicate that the observed halogen concentrations induce the extra ozone loss required for the models to match observations. Our results show that halogen chemistry has a significant and extensive influence on photochemical ozone loss in the tropical Atlantic Ocean boundary layer. The omission of halogen sources and their chemistry in atmospheric models may lead to significant errors in calculations of global ozone budgets, tropospheric oxidizing capacity and methane oxidation rates, both historically and in the future.     

Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.     

登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化

利用1951~2002年热带气旋年鉴资料,将52年分成ID1(1951~1979年)和ID2(1980~2002年)两个年代际时段,研究西北太平洋7~9月登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化.结果表明,登陆中国热带气旋存在明显的月际、年际和年代际变化,从ID1到ID2,热带气旋路径频数在东海和菲律宾海明显下降,而在南海略微有所上升.东海和南海热带气旋路径频数的时间序列进一步揭示了20世纪70年代末期热带气旋路径频数位置的变化.     

Regional climate shifts caused by gradual global cooling in the Pliocene epoch

The Earth's climate has undergone a global transition over the past four million years, from warm conditions with global surface temperatures about 3 degrees C warmer than today, smaller ice sheets and higher sea levels to the current cooler conditions. Tectonic changes and their influence on ocean heat transport have been suggested as forcing factors for that transition, including the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation approximately 2.75 million years ago, but the ultimate causes for the climatic changes are still under debate. Here we compare climate records from high latitudes, subtropical regions and the tropics, indicating that the onset of large glacial/interglacial cycles did not coincide with a specific climate reorganization event at lower latitudes. The regional differences in the timing of cooling imply that global cooling was a gradual process, rather than the response to a single threshold or episodic event as previously suggested. We also find that high-latitude climate sensitivity to variations in solar heating increased gradually, culminating after cool tropical and subtropical upwelling conditions were established two million years ago. Our results suggest that mean low-latitude climate conditions can significantly influence global climate feedbacks.     

北大西洋热带气旋路径预报的难度变化分析

为了提高热带气旋的短期气候预测水平,选取1851-1870年北大西洋热带气旋样本,按照热带气旋在不同海域的路径差异分成5个区域,利用基于偏最小二乘回归的气候持续法,建立预报未来气旋中心位置的模型,对1871-2010年每个区域的气旋进行路径预报。根据预报结果与实际数据的误差分析每个区域的预报难度,利用小波分析法找出预报难度变化的周期性规律。结果表明,北大西洋海域热带气旋路径预报的难度呈现从南向北以及从东向西递增规律,靠近大陆区域的部分热带气旋路径发生转折,这些区域的预报难度有所增大。中高纬度区域是气旋路径有旺盛期向衰亡期转折的区域,影响气旋路径的因素较多,该区域气旋路径预报的难度更大。