Extremely cold and persistent stratospheric Arctic vortex in the winter of 2010-2011

Record ozone loss was observed in the stratospheric Arctic in the spring of 2011. In the present work, we show observational evidence that the record loss of Arctic ozone is due to the extremely cold and persistent stratospheric polar vortex in the winter of 2010-2011. The polar vortex was as usual in early winter, but was intensified twice in middle January and middle February, respectively, and remained anomalously strong and stable until early April, 2011. Record low polar temperatures and record high subpolar zonal winds occurred in February and March. Stratospheric wave activity was anomalously weak because waves were refracted equatorward by the anomalously strong polar night jet. With such an extremely cold and isolated environment, Arctic stratospheric ozone was largely depleted in March and early April, 2011. Corresponding to Arctic ozone depletion, the stratospheric Northern-Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) displayed anomalously strong high-polarity, and the positive stratospheric NAM propagated downward and led to anomalously strong positive NAM in the troposphere and near the surface.     

2010-2011年冬季La Ni(n)a事件对北半球极涡的影响分析

为了探讨强极涡与La Ni(n)a事件之间的关系,利用NCEP/NCAR(日平均、月平均位势高度及温度场)再分析资料对2010-2011年冬季进行个例研究.与气候态相比,2010-2011年冬季北半球平流层极涡偏强,同时,显著的强海温负异常(La Ni(n)a事件)也持续整个冬季.结果表明,受La Ni(n)a事件影响,对流层环流场和温度场得到较大的调整,出现PNA (Pacific North American)型异常环流形势和相对应的温度异常分布.2010年12月,阿留申地区出现负值的热量经向输送,使得该地区从对流层上升至平流层的行星波动与气候态相比明显减弱,从而导致平流层极涡较气候平均态偏强.这一La Ni(n)a事件对平流层极涡影响的动力过程也从1948-2010年期间选出的13个冬季强La Ni(n)a事件的合成分析结果中得到证实.     

平流层爆发性增温的时空分布特征

利用1950～2003年逐日平均NCEP资料,对平流层爆发性增温（SSW）的特征进行了统计分析,得到如下结果：北半球SSW具有多发性,在这53年里共发现了69次增温事件,平均每年一次以上,有些年份甚至出现2～3次;SSW中心位置随高度变化,在较低层（16 km附近）中心位置大部分偏于西半球的北美北部到北极地区,高层（30 km附近）附近其中心多偏于东半球欧亚大陆的北边到北极地区;北半球SSW最先发生在30 km附近的欧亚大陆以北地区,然后由上向下延伸和传递,同时中心位置也逐渐转到西半球的北美大陆北端;在北半球发生SSW期间,平流层温度场和环流场的变化也会影响到对流层,引起对流层温度场和环流场的变化.对2002年9月发生在南半球平流层的一次强爆发性增温进行分析表明,南半球的这次SSW发生时表现出的特征与北半球稍有不同,在较低层（16 km附近）SSW中心出现在东半球的南端,在较高层（25～30 km）SSW中心位于西半球的南端.     

The leading correlation of the winter Aleutian Low with surface air temperature during the subsequent summer over the Arctic and its possible mechanism

The variations of surface air temperature(SAT)over the Arctic are closely related to global climate change.Based on reanalysis datasets and a newly defined Aleutian Low intensity index,we found a good correlation between intensity of winter Aleutian Low and the SAT over the Arctic during the subsequent summer.Explanations were given using correlation analysis,composite analysis,and singular value decomposition methods.When intensity of winter Aleutian Low was weaker,sea surface temperature appeared higher in the North Pacific in the subsequent spring and summer,resulting in mean meridional circulation anomalies and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies in spring and summer.Anomalous upward motion in mid-latitudes and downward motion in high latitudes(Ferrel cell weakening)transported the warmer air to the north from lower layer to the upper layer followed by increases in the SAT over the Arctic.Anomalous downward motion over about 75°N also caused consequent adiabatic warming and contributed to inhibit the heat transportation from surface to upper layer.Negative 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies existed in mid-latitudes and positive anomalies existed in high latitudes.The pattern(low-in-south and high-in-north)benefited from increasing the inflow volume flux of the Bering Strait,which also made the SAT over the Arctic increase.The results of this study reveal the process that the summer SAT over the Arctic was modulated by interannual variability of intensity of winter Aleutian Low.     

Response of the East Asian climate system to water and heat changes of global frozen soil using NCAR CAM model

Under the condition of land-atmosphere heat and water conservation, a set of sensitive numerical experiments are set up to investigate the response of the East Asian climate system to global frozen soil change. This is done by introducing the supercooled soil water process into the Community Land Model (CLM3.0), which has been coupled to the National Center of Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1). Results show that:(1) The ratio between soil ice and soil water in CLM3.0 is clearly changed by the supercooled soil water process. Ground surface temperature and soil temperature are also affected. (2) The Eurasian (including East Asian) climate system is sensitive to changes of heat and water in frozen soil regions. In January, the Aleutian low sea level pressure circulation is strengthened, Ural blocking high at 500 hPa weakened, and East Asian trough weakened. In July, sea level pressure over the Aleutian Islands region is significantly reduced; there are negative anomalies of 500 hPa geopotential height over the East Asian mainland, and positive anomalies over the East Asian ocean. (3) In January, the southerly component of the 850 hPa wind field over East Asia increases, indicating a weakened winter monsoon. In July, cyclonic anomalies appear on the East Asian mainland while there are anticyclonic anomalies over the ocean, reflective of a strengthened east coast summer monsoon. (4) Summer rainfall in East Asia changed significantly, including substantial precipitation increase on the southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, central Yangtze River Basin, and northeast China. Summer rainfall significantly decreased in south China and Hainan Island, but slightly decreased in central and north China. Further analysis showed considerable upper air motion along ~30°N latitude, with substantial descent of air at its north and south sides. Warm and humid air from the Northeast Pacific converged with cold air from northern land areas, representing the main cause of the precipitation anomalies.     

Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure

Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols--the main human influences on climate--have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.     

平流层极地臭氧损耗影响对流层气候的研究进展

大气平流层臭氧的严重损耗将导致到达地面的太阳紫外辐射增加已经是公共社会普遍关切的问题。最近几年,平流层臭氧损耗能否对对流层大气环流和气候产生重要影响也引起了广泛的重视,并且已成为大气科学的一个热点问题。观测研究表明近二三十年来在两极臭氧严重损耗的季节,地表气温有明显的变暖趋势,也就是欧亚大陆1—3月份和南极半岛12—5月份的地面温度呈现显著增温。这些增温趋势很可能是平流层两极的严重臭氧损耗造成的。当然,这些增温并非是由臭氧损耗的辐射效应直接造成的,而是通过波－流相互作用以及平流层－对流层相互作用等动力学过程实现的。大量的数值模拟工作也对此问题进行了研究,一些模拟结果与观测结果基本一致,另一些则发现平流层臭氧损耗的强迫作用较弱,也有模拟工作认为其他外界强迫如温室气体增加和热带海面温度升高也非常重要。作者综述了这一研究领域在近几年的最新研究进展,总结有关的观测分析和数值模拟结果,阐述平流层极地臭氧损耗可能影响地面温度的物理机制,以及澄清各种争论要点。     

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.     

Possible methane-induced polar warming in the early Eocene

Reconstructions of early Eocene climate depict a world in which the polar environments support mammals and reptiles, deciduous forests, warm oceans and rare frost conditions. At the same time, tropical sea surface temperatures are interpreted to have been the same as or slightly cooler than present values. The question of how to warm polar regions of Earth without noticeably warming the tropics remains unresolved; increased amounts of greenhouse gases would be expected to warm all latitudes equally. Oceanic heat transport has been postulated as a mechanism for heating high latitudes, but it is difficult to explain the dynamics that would achieve this. Here we consider estimates of Eocene wetland areas and suggest that the flux of methane, an important greenhouse gas, may have been substantially greater during the Eocene than at present. Elevated methane concentrations would have enhanced early Eocene global warming, and also might specifically have prevented severe winter cooling of polar regions because of the potential of atmospheric methane to promote the formation of optically thick, polar stratospheric ice clouds.     

Subtropical Arctic Ocean temperatures during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum

The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum, approximately 55 million years ago, was a brief period of widespread, extreme climatic warming, that was associated with massive atmospheric greenhouse gas input. Although aspects of the resulting environmental changes are well documented at low latitudes, no data were available to quantify simultaneous changes in the Arctic region. Here we identify the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum in a marine sedimentary sequence obtained during the Arctic Coring Expedition. We show that sea surface temperatures near the North Pole increased from 18 degrees C to over 23 degrees C during this event. Such warm values imply the absence of ice and thus exclude the influence of ice-albedo feedbacks on this Arctic warming. At the same time, sea level rose while anoxic and euxinic conditions developed in the ocean's bottom waters and photic zone, respectively. Increasing temperature and sea level match expectations based on palaeoclimate model simulations, but the absolute polar temperatures that we derive before, during and after the event are more than 10 degrees C warmer than those model-predicted. This suggests that higher-than-modern greenhouse gas concentrations must have operated in conjunction with other feedback mechanisms--perhaps polar stratospheric clouds or hurricane-induced ocean mixing--to amplify early Palaeogene polar temperatures.     

On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate

The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments--backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations--are required to establish firmly the role of the Agulhas system in a warming climate.     

Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is widely believed to affect climate. Changes in ocean circulation have been inferred from records of the deep water chemical composition derived from sedimentary nutrient proxies, but their impact on climate is difficult to assess because such reconstructions provide insufficient constraints on the rate of overturning. Here we report measurements of 231Pa/230Th, a kinematic proxy for the meridional overturning circulation, in a sediment core from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We find that the meridional overturning was nearly, or completely, eliminated during the coldest deglacial interval in the North Atlantic region, beginning with the catastrophic iceberg discharge Heinrich event H1, 17,500 yr ago, and declined sharply but briefly into the Younger Dryas cold event, about 12,700 yr ago. Following these cold events, the 231Pa/230Th record indicates that rapid accelerations of the meridional overturning circulation were concurrent with the two strongest regional warming events during deglaciation. These results confirm the significance of variations in the rate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation for abrupt climate changes.     

Rapid subtropical North Atlantic salinity oscillations across Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles

Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that the rapid climate warming oscillations of the last ice age, the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, were coupled to fluctuations in North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through its regulation of poleward heat flux. The balance between cold meltwater from the north and warm, salty subtropical gyre waters from the south influenced the strength and location of North Atlantic overturning circulation during this period of highly variable climate. Here we investigate how rapid reorganizations of the ocean-atmosphere system across these cycles are linked to salinity changes in the subtropical North Atlantic gyre. We combine Mg/Ca palaeothermometry and oxygen isotope ratio measurements on planktonic foraminifera across four Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (spanning 45.9-59.2 kyr ago) to generate a seawater salinity proxy record from a subtropical gyre deep-sea sediment core. We show that North Atlantic gyre surface salinities oscillated rapidly between saltier stadial conditions and fresher interstadials, covarying with inferred shifts in the Tropical Atlantic hydrologic cycle and North Atlantic overturning circulation. These salinity oscillations suggest a reduction in precipitation into the North Atlantic and/or reduced export of deep salty thermohaline waters during stadials. We hypothesize that increased stadial salinities preconditioned the North Atlantic Ocean for a rapid return to deep overturning circulation and high-latitude warming by contributing to increased North Atlantic surface-water density on interstadial transitions.     

Interhemispheric climate links revealed by late-glacial cooling episode in southern Chile

Understanding the relative timings of climate events in the Northern and Southern hemispheres is a prerequisite for determining the causes of abrupt climate changes. But climate records from the Patagonian Andes and New Zealand for the period of transition from glacial to interglacial conditions--about 14.6-10 kyr before present, as determined by radiocarbon dating--show varying degrees of correlation with similar records from the Northern Hemisphere. It is necessary to resolve these apparent discrepancies in order to be able to assess the relative roles of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and oceanic, atmospheric and astronomical influences in initiating climate change in the late-glacial period. Here we report pollen records from three sites in the Lake District of southern Chile (41 degrees S) from which we infer conditions similar to modern climate between about 13 and 12.2 14C kyr before present (BP), followed by cooling events at about 12.2 and 11.4 14C kyr BP, and then by a warming at about 9.8 14C kyr BP. These events were nearly synchronous with important palaeoclimate changes recorded in the North Atlantic region, supporting the idea that interhemispheric linkage through the atmosphere was the primary control on climate during the last deglaciation. In other regions of the Southern Hemisphere, where climate events are not in phase with those in the Northern Hemisphere, local oceanic influences may have counteracted the effects that propagated through the atmosphere.     

Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic and interannual climate variations

Variations of winter Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic are closely related to climate variations in the same region. When winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is positive (negative) anomaly phase, Icelandic Low is obviously deepened and shifts northwards (southwards). Simultaneously, the Subtropical High over the North Atlantic is also intensified, and moves northwards (southwards). Those anomalies strengthen (weaken) westerly between Icelandic Low and the Subtropical High, and further result in positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic, and increase (decrease) the warm water transportation from the mid-latitude to the Barents Sea, which causes positive (negative) mixed-layer water temperature anomalies in the south part of the Barents Sea. Moreover, the distribution of anomaly air temperature clearly demonstrates warming (cooling) in northern Europe and the subarctic regions (including the Barents Sea) and cooling (warming) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait. Both of distributions of SST and air temperature anomalies directly result in sea ice decrease (increase) in the Barents/Kara Seas, and sea ice increase (decrease) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait. :     

Origin of a 'Southern Hemisphere' geochemical signature in the Arctic upper mantle

The Gakkel ridge, which extends under the Arctic ice cap for approximately 1,800 km, is the slowest spreading ocean ridge on Earth. Its spreading created the Eurasian basin, which is isolated from the rest of the oceanic mantle by North America, Eurasia and the Lomonosov ridge. The Gakkel ridge thus provides unique opportunities to investigate the composition of the sub-Arctic mantle and mantle heterogeneity and melting at the lower limits of seafloor spreading. The first results of the 2001 Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge Expedition (ref. 1) divided the Gakkel ridge into three tectonic segments, composed of robust western and eastern volcanic zones separated by a 'sparsely magmatic zone'. On the basis of Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios and trace elements in basalts from the spreading axis, we show that the sparsely magmatic zone contains an abrupt mantle compositional boundary. Basalts to the west of the boundary display affinities to the Southern Hemisphere 'Dupal' isotopic province, whereas those to the east-closest to the Eurasian continent and where the spreading rate is slowest-display affinities to 'Northern Hemisphere' ridges. The western zone is the only known spreading ridge outside the Southern Hemisphere that samples a significant upper-mantle region with Dupal-like characteristics. Although the cause of Dupal mantle has been long debated, we show that the source of this signature beneath the western Gakkel ridge was subcontinental lithospheric mantle that delaminated and became integrated into the convecting Arctic asthenosphere. This occurred as North Atlantic mantle propagated north into the Arctic during the separation of Svalbard and Greenland.     

Climate instability in the Yili region, Xinjiang during the last glaciation

The climate is influenced by westerlies year in year out and the aeolian loess is widespread in the Yili region, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Through the study of the loess section with a thickness of 21.5 m, much useful information about climatic change in this region during the last glaciation was gotten. Grain size analysis of loess samples in the section showed that the climatic change in the Yili region was of instability during the last glaciation and similar to those of the North Atlantic Ocean and Greenland. In correspondence with the Heinrich events, the percentage of the size fraction of loess with grain size less than 10 μm decreased in cold stadials in the Yili region. This result suggests that the westerly wind be strengthened during the cold periods. Compared with the stadials, the content of the loess with grain size less than 10 μm was increased in interstadials, which indicated that the strength of the westerly wind was weakened. It is obvious that the climate was instable not only in the North Atlantic Ocean and polar regions, but also in other areas of Northern Hemisphere during the last glaciation.     

Weak response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide in IAP／LASG Climate System Model

Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to global warming is examined by using the climate system model developed at IAP/LASG. The evidence indicates that the gradually warming climate associated with the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to a warmer and fresher sea surface water at the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, which prevents the down-welling of the surface water. The succedent reduction of the pole-toequator meridional potential density gradient finally results in the decrease of the THC in intensity. When the atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, the maximum value of the Atlantic THC decreases approximately by 8%. The associated poleward oceanic heat transport also becomes weaker. This kind of THC weakening centralizes mainly in the northern part of the North Atlantic basin, indicating briefly a local scale adjustment rather than a loop oscillation with the whole Atlantic “conveyor belt” decelerating.     

Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through freshwater discharge and ocean circulation

The climate of the last glacial period was extremely variable, characterized by abrupt warming events in the Northern Hemisphere, accompanied by slower temperature changes in Antarctica and variations of global sea level. It is generally accepted that this millennial-scale climate variability was caused by abrupt changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model to show that freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic Ocean, in addition to a reduction of the thermohaline circulation, has a direct effect on Southern Ocean temperature. The related anomalous oceanic southward heat transport arises from a zonal density gradient in the subtropical North Atlantic caused by a fast wave-adjustment process. We present an extended and quantitative bipolar seesaw concept that explains the timing and amplitude of Greenland and Antarctic temperature changes, the slow changes in Antarctic temperature and its similarity to sea level, as well as a possible time lag of sea level with respect to Antarctic temperature during Marine Isotope Stage 3.     

北半球仲春平流层行星波活动对臭氧总量分布的影响

采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和TOMS臭氧总量资料,分析了1979～2003年4月份平流层行星波1波和2波的变化,及其对北半球中高纬臭氧总量分布的影响.结果表明,在通常情况下,4月份平流层中下层行星波1波强于2波,对应的位势高度场在欧亚大陆北部为一低压涡旋,而北美北部为一高压区.此时,从东北亚到北加拿大为臭氧总量的高值区,而北欧至格陵兰一带为臭氧的低值区.但在有些年份,2波比较强时,相应的位势高度场在极地为一明显的低压涡旋,此时在极地附近会出现臭氧低值区.个别年份如1997年,1波在25年中最强,2波也很强,强低涡中心比常年更靠近北极点,在与之位置相同的地方出现了25年中最明显的臭氧洞.还有一些年份,北极地区主要由高压控制,臭氧总量的高值区基本上出现在北极及其附近.