Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2°C global warming

Based on a 153-year (1948-2100) transient simulation of East Asian climate performed by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the potential future changes in mean and extreme climates over China in association with a global warming of 2℃ with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed in this study. Results show that annual temperature rises over the whole of China, with a greater magnitude of around 0.6℃ compared to the global mean increase, at the time of a 2℃ global warming. Large-scale surface warming gets stronger towards the high latitudes and on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while it is similar in magnitude but somewhat different in spatial pattern between seasons. Annual precipitation increases by 5.2%, and seasonal precipitation increases by 4.2%-8.5% with respect to the 1986-2005 climatology. At the large scale, apart from in boreal winter when precipitation increases in northern China but decreases in southern China, annual and seasonal precipitation increases in western and southeastern China but decreases over the rest of the country. Nationwide extreme warm (cold) temperature events increase (decrease). With respect to the 1986-2005 climatology, the country-averaged annual extreme precipitation events R5d, SDII, R95T, and R10 increase by 5.1 mm, 0.28 mm d -1 , 6.6%, and 0.4 d respectively, and CDD decreases by 0.5 d. There is a large spatial variability in R10 and CDD changes.     

1965-2013年黄土高原地区极端降水事件时空变化特征

基于黄土高原地区52个气象站点1965-2013年逐日降水数据,辅以一元线性趋势分析、相关分析、Mann-Kendall检验及反距离加权插值(IDW)等方法,本文分析了黄土高原地区极端降水事件时空变化特征.结果表明:1)时间上,持续性指标和强度指标中除降水强度(SDⅡ)外均呈现减小的趋势;绝对指标和相对指标中除R10 mm降水日数(R10 mm)外,其他指数均呈现增加的趋势,但均未通过0.05显著性水平检验.2)空间上,就持续性指标来看,连续无雨日数(CDD)增加趋势最大的位于区域Ⅲ,连续降水日数(CWD)和年降水总量(PRCPTOT)在区域Ⅱ的北部的增幅最大;强度指标中,1d最大降水量(RX1 day)和5d最大降水量(RX5 day)在区域Ⅱ的中部和北部增幅最大,SDⅡ增幅最大的地区主要集中在区域工和区域Ⅱ的北部地区;绝对指标中,R10 mm、R20 mm降水日数(R20 mm)和R25 mm降水日数(R25 mm)的趋势变化呈由南向北增加的趋势;相对指标中,异常降水日数(R95p)和极端降水日数(R99p)增幅最大的地区主要集中在区域Ⅱ.3)CDD与经度、纬度呈显著的负相关,年降水总量(PRCPTOT)、R10 mm和R25 mm与纬度呈显著正相关,其他极端降水指数与经纬度和海拔高度的相关性不显著.4)主成分分析的结果表明2类极端降水指数的总贡献率达到80.73％,除CDD外,其他极端降水指数与PRCPTOT均具有良好的相关性,且均通过了0.01显著性水平检验.5)Hurst指数结果表明黄土高原地区CDD、SDⅡ、R10 mm、R20 mm和R25 mm极端降水指数变化均呈反向变化特征,其他极端降水指数呈同向变化特征.     

黄土高原极端降水变化及其对植被覆盖度影响

全球变暖背景下,黄土高原极端降水事件频发,对社会经济及植被生态产生了重要影响,研究黄土高原极端降水变化特征及其对植被覆盖度(fractional vegetation cover, FVC)影响,可为生态环境保护和区域可持续发展提供科学支撑。基于2000—2020年黄土高原64个气象站点逐日降水数据和MODIS NDVI数据,采用趋势分析、相关分析等方法,分析了黄土高原地区极端降水和FVC时空变化特征及极端降水对FVC的影响。结果表明：2000—2020年黄土高原地区总降水量P_RCPTOT、中雨日数R_10mm、大雨日数R_20mm、强降水日数R_25mm和降水强度S_DII均呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05),区域西部和北部强降水总体增加,但区域南部呈干旱化。2000—2020年黄土高原FVC总体呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05),集中分布在区域中东部,占区域总面积的32.00%;显著下降趋势主要分布在南部少部分地区,仅占区域总面积的4.91%。2000—2020年黄土高原地区F...     

Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951-2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China.     

New evidence for effects of land cover in China on summer climate

The effects of land cover in different regions of China on summer climate are studied by lagged correlation analysis using NOAA/AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for the period of 1981-1994 and temperature,precipitation data of 160 meteorological stations in China,The results show that the correlation coeffi-cients between NDVI in previous season and summer precipitation are positive in most regions of China,and the lagged correlations show a significant difference between regions.The stronger correlations between NDVI in previous winter and precipitation in summer occur in Central Chian and the Tibetan Plateau,and the correlations between spring NDVI and summer precipitation in the eastern arid/semiarid region and the Tibetan Plateau are more significant .Vegetation changes have more sensitive feedback effects on climate in the three regions (eastern arid /semi-arid region,Central China and Tibetan Plateau),The lagged correlations between NDVI and precipitation suggest that,on interannual time scales,land cover affects summer precipitation to a certain extent,The correlations between NDVI in previous season and summer temperature show more comlex ,and the lagged responses of temperature to vegetation are weaker compared with precipitation .and they are possibly related to the global warming which partly cover up the correlations.     

对流解析区域气候模式对青藏高原降水模拟能力的研究

以中国科学院区域气候-环境重点实验室研制的区域环境集成系统模式(RIEMS 2.0)为基础,采用中国科学院资源与环境数据中心提供的植被类型数据和北京师范大学提供的中国土壤质地数据,以及美国地质调查局提供的月植被覆盖度资料,进行模式本地化,从而建成了青藏高原对流解析区域气候模式．利用该模式对青藏高原进行了2001—2018年连续积分模拟,重点考察了区域气候模式在水平分辨率为9 km条件下对青藏高原降水模拟能力,结果表明:1）模式能够较好地模拟年、雨季降水的空间分布特征以及不同区域降水年变化,同时,模式模拟降水较观测偏多,偏差为13.01%~39.95%;区域气候模式模拟青藏高原降水较国际耦合模式“比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）”45个全球模式模拟试验结果的年降水空间分布和强度有明显提高,并且更加接近观测值．2）模式能够较好地模拟出年降水时间和4个不同等级降水事件空间分布,特别是5~10、10~20、>20 mm这3个不同等级降水时间接近观测值．3）模式能够较好地模拟出青藏高原不同区域候平均降水随时间演变,降水强度除半干旱藏南地区较观测明显偏多外,对其他地区模式模拟的降水都非常接近观测值,同时与观测值之间相关系数为0.901~0.981,都通过99%置信度检验,与观测值之间的均方根误差为0.37~0.99 mm·d?1,其中对于极度干旱的柴达木地区候平均降水也能够较好地模拟出来,相关系数达到0.919;对青藏高原西南的南羌塘地区模拟最好,相关系数达到0.981．4）该研究表明采用青藏高原对流解析区域气候模式进行动力降尺度后,解决青藏高原等地区缺乏长时间序列高时空分辨率的气象数据集的瓶颈问题,为青藏高原气候和环境未来变化、生态安全屏障建设等提供坚实可靠的科学数据基础．      

青藏高原典型区域沙尘天气与气候要素关系分析

利用青藏高原沙尘活动典型区内10个站点的气象观测资料,分析了高原东北部、北部、西部、西南部近40多年来沙尘活动日数的演变规律及其与平均气温、相对湿度、平均风速、降水量等主要气候要素的相关关系.结果表明:近40年来,研究区内沙尘活动主要集中于冬、春两季,年沙尘活动日数、年均风速处于下降趋势,年均气温、年降水量呈现上升趋势,年均相对湿度变化平缓.沙尘活动日数与各气象因子在不同的时间尺度有不同的相关关系.除共和、都兰、格尔木、拉孜、山南月沙尘活动日数对月均气温滞后的正相关性显著提高外,其他站点、气候要素对于沙尘活动的影响均没有滞后效应.沙尘天气的高发期对应着暖干气候,低发期对应着冷湿气候.     

甘肃陇中安家沟小流域日降水格局

利用1981-2009年生长季日降水资料,对陇中黄土高原安家沟小流域日降水格局及脉动特征进行研究.结果表明:生长季年均降水量为271.56 mm,年际变异系数为29.14%.降水事件以≤5 mm的降水为主,占全年降水事件的44.55%;≥10 mm的降水频率很低,但对年降水的贡献大,占降水总量的64.87%.0～10d降水间隔期(无降水日)所占比例最大,为年无降水期的87.03%;>10d降水间隔期呈增加趋势.近30年来,≤5 mm/d的降水呈下降趋势,而≥10 mm/d的降水略有上升,年内总降水日数与降水量均呈下降趋势.     

Millennial-scale climate change since the last glaciation recorded by grain sizes of loess deposits on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Whether climatic changes in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere since the last glaciation have effects on the Tibetan Plateau monsoon, and the variation characteristics of the Plateau monsoon itself are still not solved but of great significance. The 22-m high-resolution Ioess-paleosol sequence in the Hezuo Basin on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that the Plateau winter monsoon experienced a millennial variation similar to high latitude Northern Hemisphere, with cold events clearly correlated with Heinrich events but less for the warm events (Dansgarrd-Oeschger events). It may indicate that the climate system at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere had played an important role in both the Plateau monsoon and the high-level westerlies. On 10^4 year scale, there are two distinct anomalous changes, which are not found in the records from high latitude northern hemisphere, revealed by the loess grain size in the Hezuo Basin. One is that there was a considerable grain size increase at -36 kaBP, suggesting an abrupt enhancement of the Plateau winter monsoon at that time; the other is that, during 43--36 kaBP, the grain size decreased distinctly, indicating a notable weakening of the Plateau winter monsoon around that period. Both of the two anomalies suggest that the Tibetan climate may have been controlled by some other factors, besides the high latitude climatic changes in the Northern Hemisphere.     

青藏高原铜矿资源研究进展

 青藏高原铜矿开发和利用历史悠久。得益于复杂的地质结构及地质演化过程,青藏高原具备得天独厚的铜矿成矿地质条件,铜矿因此成为高原地区最重要的优势矿种之一,探明铜资源量位列全国之首,是中国最重要的铜矿产地和后备铜资源基地。青藏高原地区铜矿床主要分布在玉龙铜矿成矿带、冈底斯铜矿成矿带及班公湖-怒江铜矿成矿带等3条铜矿带内,形成时代集中于喜马拉雅期和燕山期,暗示其形成和演化与高原构造-岩浆事件密切相关,是响应重大地质事件的产物。矿床具有成因复杂、综合利用价值大的特点。本文以铁格隆南铜（金）矿床、雄村铜金矿床、甲玛铜多金属矿床和驱龙铜钼矿床为例,介绍了青藏高原地区几种主要的铜矿床成因类型。巨大的铜矿资源潜力将改变中国铜矿资源分布格局,但在资源开发的同时,需要注意资源与环境的协同发展。     

Relationship between the simulated East Asian westerly jet biases and seasonal evolution of rainbelt over eastern China

Due to the particular geographical location and topog- raphical features, the East Asia exhibits prominent mon- soonal climate with significant seasonal variation and complex spatial distribution of climatic elements. There are many difficulties in simulating and forecasting the weather and climate over East Asia by using climate model system. Generally speaking, the capability and performance of the currently widely-used climate modelsin East Asia are not satisfied. It is of scientific sign…     

A method for estimating the contribution of evaporative vapor from Nam Co to local atmospheric vapor based on stable isotopes of water bodies

During the summer monsoon season,the moisture of precipitation events in southern and central regions of the Tibetan Plateau is mainly moisture from the Indian Ocean transported by the Indian monsoon and terrestrial vapor derived from the surface of the Tibetan Plateau.However,the respective contributions of these two types of moisture are not clear.From June to September,the excess deuterium values of precipitation and river water in the Nam Co basin are higher than those for the southern Tibetan Plateau.This reflects the mixing of evaporation from Nam Co and local atmospheric vapor.On the basis of theory for estimating the contribution of evaporative vapor from surface water bodies to atmospheric vapor and relative stable isotopes in water bodies (precipitation,river water,atmospheric moisture and lake water),this study preliminarily estimates that the average contribution of evaporation from the Lake Nam Co to local atmospheric vapor has varied from 28.4% to 31.1% during the summer monsoon season in recent years.     

CMIP6多模式在青藏高原的适应性评估及未来气候变化预估

随着CMIP6（coupled model intercomparison project phase 6）计划进行,新一代大气环流模式（general circulation model, GCM）输出结果陆续发布,及时探究在新模式新情景下青藏高原未来降水及气温的变化规律至关重要．在对CMIP6多模式进行适应性评估的基础上,运用DM（direct method）统计降尺度方法,以1979—2014年为基准期,预估青藏高原未来近期（2031—2050年）、远期（2061—2080年）在共享社会经济路径与典型浓度路径组合情景（shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, SSP)包括低强迫情景(SSP126)、中等强迫情景（SSP245）、中等至高强迫情景（SSP370）、高强迫情景（SSP585）下的降水、平均气温、最低气温、最高气温的时空演变规律．结果表明:相较于基准期,不同GCM对青藏高原未来降水的预估总体呈现增加趋势,近期降水较基准期变幅为?3%~16%,远期变幅为?1%~21%．未来平均气温、最低气温和最高气温均呈现一致的增温趋势,且增幅较为一致．相较于基准期,近期气温变化范围为0.9~2.3 ℃,远期气温变化范围为1.01~4.6 ℃．随着排放强度的增加,三者升温趋势愈加显著,即升温趋势由强至弱排序为SSP585、SSP370、SSP245、SSP126．此外,青藏高原气温变化在海拔高度上具有显著的依赖性,整体表现为青藏高原北部高海拔地区增温高于青藏高原东南部低海拔地区．研究结果可为揭示气候变化对高寒区水循环的影响机制提供科学依据．      

土壤湿度对中国西北地区夏季气候年际变率模拟效果的影响

利用耦合陆面过程模式CLM3的全球大气环流模式NCAR CAM3进行2组1979～2000年5～8月的集合试验,研究了表层土壤湿度对中国西北地区夏季气候年际变率模拟的影响。结果表明:在相同海温强迫条件下,采用年际变化的表层土壤湿度(ISSM)时,CAM3模式对于夏季西北地区气温和降水年际变率的模拟能力明显好于采用气候态的表层土壤湿度(CSSM)。计算表明,1979～2000年CSSM试验和ISSM试验模拟的西北地区夏季气温距平与ERA40资料的相关系数分别为0.60和0.65; CSSM试验模拟的西北地区夏季降水距平与CMAP资料的相关系数仅为0.29,而ISSM试验模拟结果与CMAP资料的相关系数为0.48。在相同海温强迫条件下,ISSM试验比CSSM试验能更好地模拟出中国西北地区夏季降水年际变率。     

夏季青藏高原东部热源异常与环流场和降水的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国160个站点的月平均降水资料,选取了2008年9月四川汶川地区特大暴雨实例,分析并验证了夏季青藏高原东部热源异常和中国局部降水异常的关系。结果表明:1夏季高原东部热源偏强会引起500h Pa风场能量偏大,其能量大值区与强降水区域分布相对应;2夏季高原东部热源偏强会引起南亚高压偏东偏强,从而引起西太副高西伸,使得水汽源源不断的向降水区域输送;3夏季高原东部热源异常时,通过加热场-高度场-降水场的同期及滞后效应,进一步影响到中国局部地区的降水异常。     

Decrease trend of dust event frequency over the past 200 years recorded in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau

By analyses of the dust layers in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau, it was found that dirty ratio in this core might be a good proxy for dust event frequency. The variations in the dirty ratio displayed a decrease trend over the past 200 years, which implies that dust events became less frequent during the study period. The decrease trend in the variations in dust event frequency might be caused mostly by the natural processes, including increasing precipitation and weakening westerly which might be related with global warming. Furthermore, significant negative correlation was found between the dirty ratio and δ^18O in the Malan ice core. This is highly important for studying the effect of atmospheric dust on climate change.     

末次冰盛期青藏高原冰川变化对亚洲气候的影响

以末次冰盛期(约2.6~1.9万年前)的气候为背景, 利用大气模式CAM4耦合陆面模式CLM4, 对青藏高原冰川规模扩大对气候产生的影响进行研究。结果表明, 末次冰盛期青藏高原冰川对北半球夏季的气候影响较显著, 除在冰川分布区引起显著的降温外, 通过遥相关作用, 还使得白令海峡附近显著升温。另外, 冰川产生的扰动会显著地增强南亚夏季风, 增加南亚地区降水。对比末次冰盛期与工业革命前时期不同气候态下青藏高原冰川规模扩大对气候的影响, 发现工业革命前时期的影响显著小于末次冰盛期, 说明青藏高原冰川对气候的影响与背景气候态有关。     

Climatic significance of δ18O records from precipitation on the western Tibetan Plateau

Analysis of daily precipitation samples for stable oxygen isotopes （δ^18O） collected at the Shiquanhe and Gerze （Gaize, Gertse） stations in the Ngari （Ali） region on the western Tibetan Plateau indicates that air temperature affects the δ^18O variations in precipitation at these stations. In summer, Shiquanhe and Gerze show strongly similar trends in precipitation δ^18O, especially in simultaneous precipitation events. Moreover, both stations experienced low δ^18O values in precipitation during the active monsoon period, resulting from the southwest monsoon （the summer phase of the Indian monsoon）. However, during the break monsoon period （during the summer rainy season, when the monsoon circulation is disrupted）, δ^18O values in summer precipitation remain relatively high and local moisture recycling generally controls the moisture sources. Air temperature correlations with δ^18O strengthen during the non-monsoon period （January--June, and October--December） due to continental air masses and the westerlies. In addition, evaporation also influences the δ^18O variations in precipitation. The observed temporal and spatial variations of δ^18O in precipitation on the western Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions show that the late May and early June-the late August and early September time frame provides an important period for the transportation of moisture from various sources on the Tibetan Plateau, and that the region of the West Kunlun-Tanggula Ranges acts as a significant climatic divide on the Plateau, perhaps for all of western China.     

Vulnerability assessment of areas affected by Chinese cryospheric changes in future climate change scenarios

Using the definition of vulnerability provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,this paper assesses the vulnerability of areas affected by Chinese cryospheric changes from 2001 to 2020 and from 2001 to 2050 in A1 and B1scenarios.Seven indices are used in the vulnerability assessment:glacial area fraction,interannual variability of permafrost depth,interannual variability of surface snow area fraction,interannual variability of surface runoff,interannual variability of surface temperature,interannual variability of vegetation growth,and interannual variability of the human development index.Assessment results show that the overall vulnerability of the studied areas in China increases from east to west.The areas in the middle and eastern parts of China are less vulnerable compared with western parts and parts of the Tibetan Plateau.The highest vulnerability values are found from 1981 to 2000,and the least ones are found from 2001 to 2050.The vulnerable areas increase from the period of 1981 to 2000 to the period of 2001 to 2050,and the less vulnerable areas decrease.The highly vulnerable areas increase from the period of 1981 to 2000 to the period of 2001 to 2020 and then decrease from the period of 2001 to 2020 to the period of 2001 to 2050.This decrease in vulnerability is attributed to the decrease in exposure and sensitivity to Chinese cryospheric changes along with a concomitant increase in adaptation.     

Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

The global climate has been altered by the anthro- pogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emis- sions. It is pointed out in the Third Assessments Report (TAR)[1] of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 that over the 20th centur…