Fuzzy控制预报模型及其应用

论述了 Fuzzy控制预报模型的建模方法 ,并探讨了该模型在麦长管蚜发生期预报中的应用 :我们将麦长管蚜发生期的预报过程拟成一个 Fuzzy控制系统 ,预报因子作为系统的输入 ,预报对象作为系统的输出 ,根据历年系统观测资料 ,建立了 Fuzzy控制预报模型 .对历史资料进行回代验证 ,其历史拟合率达 1 0 0 %.将 1 995年观测数据作为独立样本进行试报 ,预测结果与实际一致 .     

Cybernetics and network management (viable system modeling)

This paper presents a recursive modeling method which could be used to conceptualize, design, and develop complex network management structures. It would also enhance the scope for developing and enforcing standards. Today most network management systems concentrate on the alarm handling issues, failing to recognize that all data collected about a network are high valued, providing inputs to many levels of an organization. This becomes especially true where organizations are totally dependent on their Information Technology structures. There are no acceptable easy and cheap solutions to network management, and many of the major issues, such as how to handle the dynamics of networks, require extensive R&D. Network management is all about controlling the behavior of network and computer system resources, and therefore we need to adopt control theories and cybernetics. We need a robust network management building method to avoid chaos and to build the complex network structures required to serve the multinational and global organizations that future markets will require. The recursive modeling approach, proposed here, is just a start toward placing network management within a wider context.     

From Cybernetics and VSD to Management and Action

This paper uses Stafford Beer's Viable Systems Diagnosis (VSD) to suggest that the development of a model for actionable theory in organizations would take the form of a three-step process. The first step involves the definition and explanation of an appropriate theory base, the second theory interpretation into a coherent set of action principles and the third contextual action in organizations. We contend that even for a well-informed and widely read manager gleaning the theoretical basis for this process from the recognized Beer trilogy “Brain of the Firm,” “The Heart of the Enterprise” and “Diagnosing the System” is difficult to justify in terms of time, understanding, and action. We maintain that a sound set of action principles emanating from Beer's primary work must be considered before tackling the noted trilogy. We use Beer's initial text “Cybernetics and Management” to trace some fundamental operational research and the interdisciplinary tripartite science of cybernetics. We commence our action model process with some introductory thoughts into operational research, cybernetics, VSD, and contextual action. Our first step toward action involves some primary definitions and principles of cybernetic theory and the prospect of controlling overwhelming variety. Our second step provides our set of coherent potential action principles fundamental to cybernetic theory. The paper is written in a journalistic rather than academic style reflecting the need to couch the interpretation of the theory in a language that the well-informed manager may readily translate into third step contextual practice.     

基于控制论的计算机生成兵力实体对象行为模型

实体行为建模是计算机生成兵力(CGF)研究的重要内容。基于控制论的基本思想，提出适应虚拟战场需求的虚拟实体对象行为模型ESCP。ESCP行为模型由感受器、效应器和控制器三部分组成，感受器感知虚拟战场环境信息和内部反馈事件，效应器反映CGF实体对象对虚拟战场环境的作用，控制器对感知的虚拟战场环境信息进行处理，并对实体的行为进行控制。ESCP支持复合行为、协同行为以及行为并发，行为可重用。     

Developing a Cybernetics Approach to Analysing Inclusive Growth Constraints

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth supports the transformation of society towards a better quality of life and well-being. Therefore, it is crucial to diagnose the binding factors to growth. However, existing frameworks of growth diagnostics and inclusive growth analytics, which are widely used to analyse growth problems, mainly focused on a snapshot of growth constraints of a selected location at a particular point of time. Applications of these frameworks are not fully capable of addressing the dynamic nature of growth. Moreover, most existing applications of growth frameworks are mainly predictive studies, thus they do not fully support the effort of identifying the root cause of growth problem. This calls for a more comprehensive approach to diagnosing growth problems. Building upon the existing growth diagnostics and inclusive growth analytics frameworks, as well as on cybernetics and systems-based approach, we develop a cybernetics approach to analysing inclusive growth constraints. This approach enables analysis of the dynamic nature of growth, which supports the identification of growth constraint variables and mapping of their relationships, based on data gathered about the location.     

基于控制论的中医学四时五脏系统稳态性能仿真

为深入研究机体的稳态机制，本文以中医学四时五脏功能系统为对象，对生理态附近的五脏相互作用进行了线性近似，对生理态下五脏系统的动态稳定性、外部随机扰动、以及环境中四时因素对五脏的影响在Matlab下进行了仿真。结果发现依据五脏促进、制约的相互作用，机体在生理状态的一定条件下能够形成较大幅度的稳态机制，并且能够实现五脏功能随时间变化的性质，从而提示了机体五脏功能系统及四时五脏相互作用的控制论机理。     

Communication—A systems theoretical point of view (third-order cybernetics)

The intention of this paper is to look at different relationships that can occur between people in a network. These relationships have to be anticipated by managers in order to diagnose and elaborate relationships that fit into the context of their organization. The development of a relationship matrix creates the foundation for analyzing and understanding relationships in a network. Third-order cybernetics is seen as the relationship which exists between the observers in a network. A cognitive approach is developed that aims at analyzing the link among relational properties, communication, and organizational change processes.     

Embodiments of organizational fitness: The Viable System Model (VSM) as a guide

Managers are facing new problems in their quest for organizational fitness. With environments of growing complexity, foresight, adaptability, and learning become critical features for a social system to survive and develop. Established models of organizational control are insufficient to cope with this proliferating complexity. The science of cybernetics provides powerful models to master this key challenge to management. The present article offers a synthesis of Beer's Viable System Model (VSM) and a multilevel concept of organizational fitness, based on recent progress made in the field of planning theory.     

探析活系统模型:发展、模型及系统方 法简

斯塔福德·比尔成功汲取系统论、控制论、信息论领域的研究成果，并将这些成果成功引入组织管理之中，成功的创建了活系统模型，本文力求厘清活系统模型的发展脉络，探讨活系统模型的萌芽与创立的历史进程，并在此基础上分析该模型及其系统方法，旨在更全面地了解和研究活系统模型。     

人才市场动力学模型初探

本文根据动力学原理建立了一个宏观的人才市场的变化模型。该模型分析了供(校方)、需(厂方)双方的变化关系,并运用现代控制论中的最佳控制原理研究了最佳招生计划的问题。     

系统品质的评价和研究方法

就经济学中的木桶理论运用于系统品质的评价和控制论中的黑箱方法，作为研究系统的重要方法，作了粗浅的论述。     

Cybernetics and suprahuman autopoietic systems

Several streams of cybernetic thinking lead to the notion that there may exist systems of a higher logical order than that of manmade organisation. Such systems would be autopoietic and, in principle, beyond human control. Man and his institutions would be but components of such systems. The accelerated growth of institutions and the connections between them facilitated by the IT revolution makes the realization of such systems more probable at this time. The implications for systems practice are discussed.     

生物控制论和系统仿真

生物控制论是控制论的一个分支,本文概述了生物控制论的定义、诞生背景、生物控制论的内容、生物系统的建模及其仿真问题,展望了生物控制论的发展前景,顺便谈及了在医学工程中应用。     

绩效导向下的武器装备采购系统再投入比例控制

以武器装备采购系统技术创新再投入比例控制为研究对象,综合运用经济学、控制论等相关理论,采用模型推演、数据演算、仿真验证等方法,对技术创新再投入与系统发展绩效的关系进行了理论分析和实证检验。区分单系统和全系统,就技术创新再投入比例的优化及实现路径进行了探讨,为我军武器装备采购宏观调控政策的制定完善提供依据和参考。     

A case study for advanced planning and scheduling (APS)

This paper presents a case study for the advanced planning and scheduling (APS) problem encountered in a light source manufacturer. The APS problem explicitly considers due dates of products, operation sequences among items, and capacity constraints of the manufacturing system. The objective of the problem is to seek the minimum cost of both production idle time and tardiness or earliness penalty of an order. An intelligent heuristic is applied to the problem, and the results demonstrate that significant production performances can be achieved while ensuring customer satisfaction as opposed to normal practices followed in the company relying on human expertise.     

工程控制论是丰富、发展控制论的科学创新之作

本文分析了钱学森创立《工程控制论》的历史过程,就具体内容与维纳控制论进行了对比。从科学创新的角度探讨了工程控制论,把控制论应用于自动控制和自动调节实际,并把工程控制论确立为技术科学;明确提出了反馈方法和不互相影响控制准则丰富发展了控制论。最后指出《工程控制论》修订版是钱学森高屋建瓴、与时俱进、不断创新精神的具体体现。     

从系统科学论现代管理

面对 2 1世纪时代发展的新需求 ,结合应用系统科学中的系统论、控制论、生克论、协同论和泛系方法论 ,宏微兼顾、多层网络、跨域一体、辩证综合地研究现代管理。对管理的定义、结构、功能和管理意识 ,提出了些有别于常理的新见解     

Systemic solutions for systemic problems

The systems sciences and cybernetics emerged in the years after World War II. These fields created many new approaches to engineering and management and contributed new ideas to existing academic fields. The new fields also identified similar concepts across a range of fields and began to create a general theory of systems. In addition the systems sciences created a variety of methods for managing complex systems, for example logistics, operations research and computer simulations. In the 1970s there was concern about population and environment balance. Currently there is increasing concern with governance, since the rate of presentation of problems seems to be greater than the ability of our institutions to manage them. This paper will discuss the history of systems science and cybernetics, the questions formulated and the solutions proposed, the difficulties encountered in finding a home within contemporary universities and some exciting lines of research now underway.     

Cybernetics and Participation: From Theory to Practice

A combination of recent cybernetic discourse provides guidelines for reconsidering our way of thinking about the relationship between government and the governed. With reference to contemporary understanding of natural biological systems and complexity, it is possible to reformulate a language that has tended to be dominated by notions of competition and survival of the fittest. Instead we can perhaps move toward reconsidering social systems in terms of a more dynamic and equitable understanding of the fit and structural dance of different systems, and postulate that the motor for progress is the coexistence of difference rather than might over right. This paper synthesizes the somewhat different insights of Stafford Beer and the Santiago School of Cognition, and reports on a real-world initiative that sought to instantiate governance as a phenomenon constituted by the governed. Technological developments of the knowledge age are proposed as supporting such democratic initiatives.