含有突发事件的网络计划关键路线分类与应用

讨论了在用a bi cj型闻系数刻划工程中因模糊、随机等不确定性因素所引起的工期不确定性以及突发事件发生引起的工期变化时,网络计划关键路线分类及其应用问题。     

价格本体系统投入产出模型中直接消耗系数对临界平均毛利率的影响分析

针对价格本体系统稳定性建立了基本价格投入产出模型,给出了定价稳定性的充要条件和临界平均毛利率的表达式,并研究降低直接消耗系数对该临界平均毛利率的定量影响,得出降低直接消耗系数可提高临界平均毛利率定量关系的结论,并给出了临界平均毛利率的增加幅度.     

控制输入跟踪算法和测试衍生算法

以组合电路的满足性测试生成算法为基础，提出了控制输入跟踪算法和测试衍生算法。控制输入跟踪算法从源输出开始，根据一定的指导策略，向源输入搜索，在搜索过程中生成一条临界路径，该路径中全部的故障可以用满足临界条件的输入向量来测试。测试衍生则利用一个测试的信息，通过临界路径变换衍生一系列新的测试。这两种算法嵌入测试生成的满足性算法中，大大减少了故障，压缩了CNF的构成时间和搜索空间。     

个体规则驱动的群体行为对称性破缺的临界状态

经济系统中,个体相互作用能够给群体涌现非常复杂的非线性行为,导致某些个体的非理性行为可能导致整个经济系统迅速崩溃,这种崩溃前系统的临界状态就显得异常重要.为了得到比较深刻的结论,将经济系统中个体之间的相互作用抽象成以随机复杂网络为结构的自适应博弈模型,从而构建合理的复杂自适应系统理论模型,然后通过随机攻击与蓄意攻击,来确定这一系统逾渗的临界状态.分析认为,当系统受到随机攻击时,系统表现出很强的鲁棒性,然而当系统受到蓄意攻击时,存在一个临界攻击概率使得系统具有较强的临界性.结论认为,系统受到随机攻击时,至少有两个大的组分保持系统联通,然而,当系统受到蓄意攻击时,系统存在一个临界删除概率,当删除概率小于这一临界概率时,系统存在两个大的组分;当删除概率大于这一临界概率时,系统难以保持联通.进一步而言,这一临界概率与系统中Agent的收益相关,这一结论修订了经典的以度为函数的复杂网络中的临界概率.     

同异反网络计划的工期预测方法

同异反网络计划方法是一种有别于传统但更加符合工程实际的新型网络计划方法,它能描述网络计划中工序变量因随机、模糊,不确知以及突发性所引起的综合不确定性。在推广同异反联系数概念和给出主关键路线、次关键路线、再次关键路线的基础上,提出了同异反网络计划的工期预测方法,为同异反网络计划的应用提供了切实可行的预测技术。     

基于Monte Carlo方法的PERT网络关键路线和最关键活动分析

在定义计划评审技术（program evaluation and review technique, PERT）网络局部关键活动、关键活动、关键路线和活动关键度的基础上,提出了关键活动、关键路线的分析方法;根据活动不确定性对项目计划工期影响的大小,即活动敏感性指标的大小,确定活动在项目进度控制中的重要程度;在定义活动相对敏感性、活动敏感性的基础上,利用全概率公式,得到活动敏感性指标计算公式,进而提出了最关键活动分析方法。算例表明,利用本研究提出的方法可便捷地找出PERT网络的关键路线和最关键活动。     

Criticizing the phenomenological critique—Autopoiesis and critical realism

There has been, and still is, an important debate between critical systems and soft (interpretive) systems concerning epistemology and ontology. Flood and Ulrich argued for a position they termed “critical idealism,” but this has been contested by Fuenmayor, who proposed that critical systems was unnecessary since phenomenology provided the necessary and sufficient form of critique. This paper, in turn, argues for critical systems, providing a critique of phenomenology which shows that at least three of its own presuppositions are invalid. It is further suggested that an adequate philosophy for critical systems has not yet emerged and that the cognitive autopoietic theories of Maturana and the critical realism of Bhaskar will be important strands in its development.     

无标度物流网络中延误扩散临界条件的仿真研究

针对无标度物流网络延误扩散发生的临界条件,应用平均场理论,建立以延误节点密度为标度的常微分方程,求解延误扩散的临界条件;通过设计物流网络中延误扩散仿真系统,生成具有无标度属性的虚拟网络,对临界条件进行了仿真验证。研究结果表明：无标度物流网络中存在少数具有较高度值的关键节点,一旦这些节点出现服务障碍,将导致更大范围内的延误和更快的延误扩散速率。     

价格本体系统稳定性的临界加价率

研究价格本体系统稳定性临界加价率，给出其定量表达式。给出了临界加价率同临界毛利率的转换公式，说明他们对稳定性研究的等效性。     

基于运动目标预测的多无人机分布式协同搜索

多无人机(unmanned aerial vehicle, UAV)协同搜索是多UAV协同一个重要研究方向。随着战场环境的复杂化,UAV对动态时敏目标的搜索显得尤为重要。针对动态时敏目标的运动特性,首先建立动态时敏目标的运动预测模型,为了降低由于目标运动造成的不确定性以及优化UAV的搜索性能,在采用贝叶斯理论对目标存在概率进行更新的基础上,研究了一种基于高斯分布的目标转移概率密度,通过计算得到动态时敏目标的存在预测概率,然后合理建立UAV协同搜索的性能指标函数,在分布式模型预测控制框架下,将多UAV集中式在线优化问题转化为各架UAV的分布式在线优化问题,最后对性能指标函数进行优化求解。通过仿真验证了所提方法的有效性。     

小样本协整检验的神经网络方法

采用MonteCarlo模拟方法,给出了小样本容量下协整检验临界值的响应面方程。结果表明,小样本协整检验的临界值不仅与样本容量有关,还依赖于协整检验中的滞后阶数。进一步,以样本容量、变量个数、滞后阶数为输入指标,检验临界值为输出指标建立了神经网络模型。神经网络模型比响应面模型具有更高的精度。     

Prostitution and Human Rights in Indonesia: A Critical Systemic Review of Policy Discourses and Scenarios

This article considers policy making in practice focussing on case studies drawn from ethnographic research on prostitution in Indonesia carried out between 2012 and 2013 (this article is based on field research undertaken in Java, Indonesia, between November 2012 and 28 February 2013). Its theoretical underpinnings is that of ‘critical systemic heuristics’ which contends that policy making with respect to prostitution needs to take into account a range of factors and diverse views based on a process of ‘unfolding values’ and ‘sweeping in’ many variables before a decision is made. Applying ‘critical systemic approach’ or ‘critical heuristics’provides a means to test out the policy making ideas, as opposed to merely implementing the ideas of the powerful. The paper applies critical heuristic thinking to argue that the policy response ought to take into account the voices of those with a lived experience of poverty and prostitution, in order to protect their rights when making policy decisions.     

A New Network Planning Method Based on the Connection Number a bi of SPA

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The origins and nature of critical systems thinking

Critical systems thinking is a relative newcomer in the systems tradition of thought. Nevertheless, it has already made a number of significant contributions to the field and is now developing more quickly than any other part of systems thinking. The paper charts the origins and nature of this evolving, critical systems, body of work. The author's own impressions of its development are first set out. This helps establish that critical systems thinking has come to rest upon five commitments which define its essential character. These commitments are then used to classify the published literature associated with critical systems thinking. The result is a review of the origins and nature of critical systems thinking up to 1990.     

Making learning critical: Identity, emotion, and power in processes of management development

In recent years, a substantial volume of broadly critical knowledge of management and organization has been established, but comparatively little attention has been given to the question of how the insights of such knowledge might be communicated or applied pedagogically. The temptation or danger, arguably, is for critical knowledge to be substituted for the content of “traditional management education,” with minimal regard for its contribution to processes of personal, social, and organizational development. The chief purpose of this paper is to put some flesh on the claim that critical theory can make an important contribution to the principles and practice of management education. After summarizing some key differences between “traditional management education” and action learning (concerning learning and personal experience), these differences are illustrated by reference to a case study, which in turn, provides a basis for highlighting the relevance of critical thinking for addressing problems and issues thrown up through action learning for managers.     

INTELLIGENT SECURITY SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR MODELING FIRE CRITICAL INCIDENTS： TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE SECURITY

An intelligent security systems engineering approach is used to analyze fire and explosive critical incidents, a growing concern in urban communities. A feed-forward back-propagation neural network models the damages arising from these critical incidents. The overall goal is to promote fire safety and sustainable security. The intelligent security systems engineering prediction model uses a fully connected multilayer neural network and considers a number of factors related to the fire or explosive incident including the type of property affected, the time of day, and the ignition source. The network was trained on a large number of critical incident records reported in Toronto, Canada between 2000 and 2006. Our intelligent security systems engineering approach can help emergency responders by improving critical incident analysis, sustainable security, and fire risk management.     

物流保障网络级联失效临界抗毁性

针对军事决策者所关心的"物流保障网络抗毁性"与"物流保障网络负载临界值"的问题进行了研究,首先分析了物流保障网络的特点,建立了度均匀随机分布的网络模型和负载局部扩展的级联失效抗毁性模型,并运用了多维分支过程方法求解网络级联失效的临界值。研究发现:容量均匀分布的物流保障网络中,当网络负载超过临界负载时,一个随机故障将引起网络瘫痪。最后通过一个仿真实例分析了物流保障网络节点最大度分别为5、6、8、10、12时的级联失效抗毁性临界值,并给出了仿真结果与解析推导存在误差的原因。     

复杂机电系统关键部件辨识方法及应用

鉴于现有衡量系统中关键部件的重要性测度在构建时仅考虑拓扑重要性或功能重要性,本文利用Choquet积分,结合部件功能属性改进网络理论中拓扑重要性测度提出节点广义重要性测度的定义及普适性构建方法;针对单一重要性测度识别关键部件时可能存在的不确定性与随机性,提出聚合算子(aggregation operator,AO)融合多种广义重要性测度识别复杂机电系统中的关键部件.最后以高速列车转向架系统为例选取模糊积分为聚合算子AO识别系统中的关键部件,结果表明以模糊积分为聚合算子AO,同时利用k可加模糊测度确定权重的识别结果更为准确.     

装备保障体系关键节点分析

装备保障体系在现代战争中发挥着重要的后勤保障作用。一旦保障体系中的关键保障节点遭到袭击, 将会严重影响到系统保障能力的发挥。因此, 研究装备保障体系中的关键节点识别技术, 找出薄弱环节, 对于未来战争有着重要意义。本文以复杂网络为理论基础, 提出了一种衡量保障节点重要性的指标。该节点重要性指标一方面衡量保障节点在一定空间范围内的连接能力, 另一方面按照新提出的面向任务需求的路由方式, 衡量保障节点的全局运输能力。通过与另外6种节点的重要性指标对比, 结果从多方面证明了所提的节点重要性指标在识别关键节点时的有效性及适用性。     

Transforming Adult Learning Through Critical Design Inquiry

Marching toward the 21st century, there are not only drastic changes in global economic and political development, but also in technological advancement and ecological evolution. All of these are intertwined with one another to shape national and societal development in various areas. In the milieu of education, these changes exert great influence on the way we perceive learning and instruction, this in turn calls for a paradigm shift in the way we design learning and instruction. Consequently, calls to critically examine the way we have been designing our learning and instruction have gained more and more attention in the past decade. Since design could help in realizing our visionary ideals, and transforming these ideals into innumerable learning and working contexts, we need to probe into how our learning and instruction could be more creatively and powerfully designed. The author contends that most learners, through the process of critical envision and enaction, could learn to design their own learning, either independently or collectively, through the cultivation of design capacities. In this paper, the author first presents the historical analysis of the theoretical foundations of instructional design, and then takes a critical approach to examining the alternative possibilities of instructional design. Based on the critical perspectives of design, she develops the critical design inquiry by integrating the richness of contemporary critical thinking into that of systems thinking and design thinking. To make the critical design inquiry an educational praxis, rather than just another design theory, the author takes a participatory and collaborative approach to design with a group of adult students. The critical design approach aims at enlightening the adult learners’ inner systems revolution and enriching the outer learning environments through collaborative design engagement. In the final section, the author explicates how the confined roles of instructional designers could be conceptualized through the critical design inquiry.