Interannual variability of the Meiyu onset over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and analyses of its previous strong influence signal

Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of MO(IVMO) and its previous strong influence signal (PSIS) are investigated. The possible mechanisms that the PSIS affecting IVMO are also discussed. The results show that the pre-vious CP-ENSO (Central Pacific El Nio/Southern Oscillation) event is the PSIS affecting IVMO and it has a better accu...     

The wavelet analysis of satellite sea surface temperature in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean

Using wavelet transform, the sea surface temperature (SST) during the period of 1982–1999 of the South China Sea and the equatorial Pacific, from datasets of NOAA/AVHRR, was analyzed. It is shown that there are 4- and 8-year interannual oscillations in the eastern equatorial Pacific and 8-year interannual oscillation in the western equatorial Pacific. In terms of attractive time-frequency localization and multi-scale properties of wavelet transform, as shown by the Morlet wavelet, it is found that an in-phase coupling oscillation occurs between the SCS and the equatorial Pacific. The SST changes of SCS will have echoed every event of EI Niño (abnormally warm) and La Niño (abnormally cold) in the equatorial Pacific. There is a positive correlation between the SCS and the western equatorial Pacific in the 8-year time-scale. Evidence is presented that the SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific influence the SST of the SCS.     

南海海表温度的低频变化及影响因素

利用1950-2010年HadISST1海表温度分析了1950-2010年南海海表温度的季节、年际、年代际变化规律和空间分布,并探讨了太平洋年代际振荡、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动、表面风和EI Nino Modoki对南海海表温度的影响.结果表明:南海海表温度存在显著的季节、年际和年代际变化,1975年左右发生1次由低到高的跃...     

Relationship between the atmospheric heat source over Tibetan Plateau and the heat source and general circulation over East Asia

On the basis of NCEP/NCAR version I daily reanalysis data from 1971 to 2000 and by the methods of inverse calculation, correlation analysis and comparative analysis, the influences of atmospheric heat source （AHS） over the Tibetan Plateau on the large-scale AHS and the general circulation in summer are studied in this paper. The results show that AHS over the plateau in summer may trigger a heat source wavetrain propagating northeastward along the coast from the East Asian continent and West Pacific to Bering Strait-Arctic or even North America. In addition, if AHS over the eastern plateau is intense, South Asian High moves to southeast and West Pacific subtropical high moves to southwest; on the contrary, if AHS over the eastern plateau is weak, South Asian High moves to northwest and West Pacific subtropical high moves to northeast. Therefore, South Asian High and West Pacific subtropical high move in the horizontally-opposite directions in terms of interannual variation, for which AHS over the eastern plateau seems to be thermodynamically responsible.     

澳大利亚高压对南海夏季风爆发前期的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR的在分析资料,分析了1948～2004年期间澳大利亚（以下简称澳高）的年变化和日变化及其对南海夏季风的影响。结果显示在澳高强弱年这种影响有着不同的结果：在年际变化中,澳高与南海夏季风的相关性在澳高弱年明显大于强澳高年;而日变化中,澳高与南海夏季风的相关性在澳高弱年为正,澳高强年则为负。进一步研究表明,造成这些现象的原因大致可以归为：强弱澳高年,越赤道气流的通道变换;西太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）的位置偏向;马斯可林高压（以下简称马高）的作用的叠加效应.这些作用对于南海夏季风的重要组成部分：越赤道气流产生了重要影响,从而影响了南海夏季风的强度。     

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly and wind energy input in the Pacific Ocean

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind energy input in the Pacific Ocean over the period of 1949–2003 is studied by using daily-mean NOAA/NCEP wind stress and monthly mean Reynolds SST data. The results indicate the strong negative correlation between SSTA and local wind energy input to surface waves in most of the domain at low and middle latitudes. The SST is low (high) during the years with more (less) wind energy input. The correlation coefficients are high in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the central midlatitude North Pacific at the decadal scale, and in the central tropical Pacific at the interannual scale. Vertical mixing processes in the upper ocean are closely associated with wind energy input, indicating that wind energy input may play an important role in interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean via regulating vertical mixing.     

Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influences on summer rainfall over East Asia

Based on the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR and other observational data,interannual variability of Mascarene high(MH) and Australian high(AH) from 1970 to 1999 is examined.It is shown that interannual variability of MH is dominated by the Antarctic oscillation(AAO),when the circumpolar low in the high southern latitudes deepens,the intensity of MH will be intensified.On the other hand,AH is correlated by AAO as well as EI Nino and South Oscillation(ENSO),the intensity of AH will be intensified when EI Nino occurs.Both correlation analysis and case study demonstrate that summer rainfall over East Asia is closely related to MH and AH.When MH intensifies from boreal spring to summer (i.e.from austral autumn to winter),there is more rainfall over regions from the Yangtze River valley to Japan,in contrast,less rainfall is found over southern China and western Pacific to the east of Taiwan,and most of regions in mid-latitudes of East Asia.Compared with MH,the effect of AH on summer rainfall in East Asia is limited to localized regions,there is more rainfall over southern China with the intensification of AH.The results in this study show that AAO is a strong signal on interannual timescale,which plays an important role in summer rainfall over East Asia.This discovery is of real importance to revealingt the physical mechanism of interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon and prediction of summer precipitation in China.     

Interannual variation of North China rainfall in rainy season and SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific

The rainfall in North China during rainy season （July and August （JA）） exhibits a strong interannual variability. In this study, the atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies associated with the interannual variation of JA North China rainfall are examined. It is found that on the interannual timescale, the JA North China rainfall is associated with significant SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the North China rainfall and SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific correspond to the similar variation of the upper-level westerly jet stream over East Asia. A possible mechanism is proposed for the influence of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the North China rainfall.     

Indonesian Throughflow in an eddy-permitting oceanic GCM

An eddy-permitting quasi-global oceanic GCM was driven by wind stresses from reanalysis data for the period of 1958-2001 to get the time series of the upper circulation in the Indonesian Sea. The model represents a reasonable pathway of Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with Makassar Strait making the major passage transfer the North Pacific water southward. The simulated annual mean ITF transport is 14.5 Sv, with 13.2 Sv in the upper 700 m. Annual cycle is the dominant signal for the seasonal climatology of the upper layer transport. Both the annual mean and seasonal cycle agree well with the observation. The overall correlation between the interannual anomaly of the ITF transport and Nino 3.4 index reaches -0.65 in the simulation,which indicates that ENSO-related interannual variability in the Pacific is dominant in controlling the ITF transport. The relationship between the interannual anomalies of ITF and sea surface temperature in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean is not fixed in the simulation. In 1994, for instance, the intensive Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly plays a dominant role in the formation of an impressive large transport of ITF.     

Covarying modes of the Pacific SST and northern hemispheric midlatitude atmospheric circulation anomalies during winter

The interannual-to-interdecadal relationship between the Pacific sea surface temperature （SST） and the northern hemispheric midlatitude＇s atmosphere represented by the circumpolar vortex was documented with the global oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data of recent 50 years. Two covarying modes of the Pacific SST and northern circumpolar vortex anomalies during winter were examined using the singular value decomposition and wavelet analysis techniques. One is the interannual, ENSO-related mode and the other is the interdecadal, North Pacific SST-related mode with a period of around 20 years. The two modes exhibit distinct spatial structures. For the interannual mode, the SST anomaly is characterized by a typical ENSO pattern with the principal signature in the tropical eastern Pacific and secondary one in the central North Pacific, while the atmospheric anomaly is regional, characterized by a Pacific-North American pattern. For the inter- decadal mode, large SST anomaly is located in the central North Pacific, while the atmospheric anomaly is zonally global, associated with the midlatitute＇s standing long-wave variations. When the central North Pacific is colder, the long-wave is stronger, and vice versa. Further investigations suggest that the interdecadal mode could involve an interaction between ＂two oceans and an atmosphere＂.     

Linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and the sea surface temperature in the North Pacific

The linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific during the summertime (June-August) is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of observed data.It is found that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the North Pacific SST,with the correlation coefficient being 0.58 on the interannual timescale during the period 1954-2003,which suggests that a strong (weak) APO corresponds to high (low) SST in the North Pacific.Their in-phas...     

东亚地区汛期OLR季节内振荡型的年际变化特征

 分析了1979—2005年5—8月东亚地区向外长波辐射（OLR）主要的空间模态和季节内振荡（ISO）强度的年际变化特征,并研究了各个模态主要ISO型之间的联系。结果表明,5—8月东亚地区OLR存在3种主要的空间模态：西太平洋偶极型（WPD）,西太平洋经向型（MWP）和东亚中纬太平洋波列（MEAP）,其时间变化表现为10～20,20～30和30～70d的周期振荡,其强度均存在极显著的年际变化,由东亚夏季风区加热强迫和大气内部非线性相互作用引起。WPD的主要ISO型之间相互独立,MWP和MEAP的不同ISO型之间存在强的相互作用。深入研究这3个模态的20～30和10～20d振荡变化特征,对于东亚地区夏季10～30d延伸期预报具有重要意义。     

南京地区夏季暴雨年际变化的主要模态及其与大气环流的联系

EEMD(集合经验模态分解)方法在处理非线性及非平稳时间序列时表现出了很大的优势和应用潜力。利用EEMD方法研究南京地区夏季暴雨年际变化周期,对55年(1946-2000)的南京地区夏季暴雨频数进行分解,分别得到一系列模式,其中包含有2-3年周期分量和7年周期分量,而且2-3年周期分量幅度较大,变化特征与暴雨频数原始数据变化具有很高的相似性。不同于传统方法,EEMD方法给出了暴雨频数在不同时间尺度上各自分离的变化特征.这两种时间变化模态对应于不同的200hPa环流型,前者主要作用区域在南亚和欧亚大陆到西太平洋的副热带地区,而后者相关区域在西太平洋热带和亚洲中纬度地区。     

日本海混合层深度季节和年际变化的数值模拟

基于垂向混合坐标系统的海洋模式HYCOM模拟了北太平洋1981~2001年间的月平均三维水动力学和热力学结构.在对模拟结果验证的基础上,得到日本海混合层时空场的分布情况,剖析了日本海混合层深度的季节及年际变化特征.对模拟结果分析表明,日本海混合层存在着显著的季节和年际变化:冬季混合层深度深,夏季混合层深度浅,其深度变化范围在10~100 m之间.日本海混合层深度的年际变化与季节变化存在共性而又各具特色.研究证实,日本海地形、环流、海面风场和温度梯度场等的综合作用,导致日本海混合层深度的变化.     

Spatial-temporal variability of thermohaline intrusions in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean

Using repeated hydrographic measurements at 137°E,spatial-temporal variability of thermohaline intrusions in the northwestern tropical Pacific are investigated.Intrusions can be found in the main thermocline throughout the section,with their strength decreasing rapidly poleward.The strongest intrusions exist at the North Equatorial Countercurrent(NECC) where North/South Pacific thermocline water converges.These intrusions also exhibit temporal variations in strength which are closely associated with the meridional displacement of the NECC.Intrusion strength peaks in boreal winter when the NECC reaches its northernmost position of the year.At interannual time scale,intrusions tend to be weak(strong) during El Ni o(La Ni a) episodes.Variations in intrusion strength also lead to prominent fluctuation of lateral diffusivity K L and cross-front temperature flux F Θ.F Θ exhibits significant year-to-year changes which are well correlated with ENSO index,suggesting a possible role of intrusions in the low-latitude Pacific climate variability.     

年际和年代际气候变化的全球时空特征比较

5利用1950－1998年全球海洋同化分析资料和全球大气再分析资料，分析比较了全球海气系统年际和年代际变化的主要时空特征。结果表明：1）全球上层海洋年际变化主要为位于热带太平洋的ENSO模态，年代际变化最显区域中纬度海洋、赤道外热带东太平洋和大西洋及南半球高纬度区域；2）全球大气年际和年代际变化均主要位于中高纬地区尤其是两极地区，在年际时间尺度上，气温异常和气压异常没有明显的对应关系，但在年代际时间尺度上，气温增暖（变冷）常常伴随着气压的降低（升高）；3）在年际时间尺度上，发生在中高纬度陆地地区的大气年际变化和主要发生在热带海洋的上层海洋年际变化没有一致性的内在联系，前主要表现为大气内部（浑沌）变化，而后主要为热带海气相互作用产生的ENSO变化；4）在年代际时间尺度上，全球海洋大气系统大约在20世纪70年代均一致性地经历了一次跃变，其结果导致80年代以来，全球大范围地区（尤其是两极和西伯利亚地区）气温明显偏暖，赤道两侧的热带东太平洋、北美和南美西海岸及非洲西海岸等海域海表温度偏高，伴随着这种全球大范围背景增暖现象，青藏高原北部地区和格陵兰岛气温具有变冷趋势，而中纬度北太平洋和南半球高纬度海域海表温度也表现为降低。     

Statistical characteristics of the double ridges of subtropical high in the Northern Hemisphere

The generality and some climatological characteristics of the double ridge systems of subtropical high （SH） are investigated statistically by using the daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1958 to 1998. The results show that the SH double-ridge event is a common phenomenon in the Northern Hemisphere, with the distinct seasonal and regional features, that is, the majority of SH double-ridge geneses concentrate over the eastern North India Ocean-western North Pacific as well as the central North Pacific in the period from mid-July to mid-September. Especially over the western North Pacific subtropics, the SH double-ridge events are extremely active. It is found that the life cycle of most double-ridge events of western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） is shorter but some still last longer. The WPSH double-ridge events occur most frequently from July to September, while there is a paucity of occurrences during November-March. Also, it is shown that the WPSH double-ridge events have a strong interannual variation with a certain periodicity which possesses a remarkably abrupt change in the mid-1970s. Additionally, the relationship between the WPSH double ridges and the meridional movement of WPSH is discussed.     

Influence of mean climate change on climate variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record

Today, the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is the primary driver of interannual variability in global climate, but its long-term behaviour is poorly understood. Instrumental observations reveal a shift in 1976 towards warmer and wetter conditions in the tropical Pacific, with widespread climatic and ecological consequences. This shift, unique over the past century, has prompted debate over the influence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on ENSO variability. Here we present a 155-year ENSO reconstruction from a central tropical Pacific coral that provides new evidence for long-term changes in the regional mean climate and its variability. A gradual transition in the early twentieth century and the abrupt change in 1976, both towards warmer and wetter conditions, co-occur with changes in variability. In the mid-late nineteenth century, cooler and drier background conditions coincided with prominent decadal variability; in the early twentieth century, shorter-period (approximately 2.9 years) variability intensified. After 1920, variability weakens and becomes focused at interannual timescales; with the shift in 1976, variability with a period of about 4 years becomes prominent. Our results suggest that variability in the tropical Pacific is linked to the region's mean climate, and that changes in both have occurred during periods of natural as well as anthropogenic climate forcing.     

Tropospheric biennial oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high and its relationships with the tropical SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies

There is the significant period of tropospheric biennial Oscillation(TBO)over East Asian monsoon region at the interannual timescales,which has the important influences on East China climate.Based on a set of reconstructed indices which describes the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)objectively,this paper focuses on the TBO component of WPSH,one of the key members of the East Asian Monsoon system,and its relationships with the tropical SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies.It is found that(1)As an important interannual component of WPSH,the time series of TBO has the obvious transition in the late1970s,and the variability of the WPSH’s TBO component is more significant after the late 1970s.(2)The time-lag correlations between the WPSH’s TBO and the tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in several key ocean regions are more significant and have longer correlation duration than the raw data.The response of the western boundary index to ENSO is earlier than the intensity index,and the time-lag correlations of them are up to maximum when lagging ENSO by 3–5 months and 5–6months,respectively.(3)In the course of the WPSH’s TBO cycle,the occurrence of the El Ni o-like anomaly in the tropical central-eastern Pacific in winter is always coupled with the weak East Asian winter monsoon,with the most significant enhancing phase of the WPSH’TBO.In contrast,the La Ni a-like anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific in winter is coupled with the strong East Asian winter monsoon,with the most weakening phase of the WPSH’s TBO.(4)The distribution of the tropical SST and atmospheric circulations anomalies are asymmetric in the TBO cycle.The WPSH’s TBO is more significant in the period of the developing El Ni o-like anomaly in central-eastern Pacific than in the period of the developing La Ni a-like anomaly.Therefore,during the period of developing El Ni o-like anomaly,more attention should be paid to the interannual component of TBO signal in the short-term climate prediction.     

江淮流域梅雨期雨量的变化特征及其与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异

运用相关分析和滑动相关方法,分析了江淮流域5个代表站1903-2000年梅雨期雨量的变化特征及其与太平洋海温的相关关系及年代际差异.结果表明,江淮地区梅雨期雨量在近百年来存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征.通过分析梅雨期雨量与太平洋海温的年代际相关特征发现,江淮流域梅雨期雨量与前期及同期太平洋海温关系密切,前一年冬季及梅雨期东北太平洋海温与江淮流域梅雨期雨量负相关,在热带东太平洋的Nino1 2区两者正相关显著,同年春季西太平洋部分海域海温与江淮流域梅雨期雨量正相关.从年际相关分析发现,前一年冬季太平洋海温与梅雨期雨量正相关,同年春季以及梅雨期两者相关不明显.通过分析年代际差异发现,江淮流域梅雨期雨量与前期及同期热带太平洋关键区海温的21a滑动相关存在显著的年代际差异,这种差异与海温的21a滑动平均的年代际冷暖背景关系密切,热带太平洋海温关键区前一年冬季冷海温背景下,梅雨期雨量同海温正相关显著,同年春季暖海温背景下,两者之间负相关显著,而江淮流域梅雨期雨量同中国近海海温之间(从冬季到梅雨期)维持显著的正相关,与该区海温冷暖背景的关系则并不明显.