Estimating possible impact of human activity on the warm season temperature in Beijing since the industrial era

Global surface temperature shows an increasing trend over the past 100 years.Anthropogenic and natural factors have been invoked to explain this warming, but their relative contribution and the spatial variability remain controversial.Based on a 2650-year temperature record from a stalagmite near Beijing, we explore the possible impacts of human activity on the warm season temperature in Beijing since the industrial era using the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA).The results suggest that the warm s...     

High resolution stalagmite δ18O records over the past 1000 years from Dongge Cave in Guizhou

Based on MC-ICP-MS U-series dating andstable O-isotope analysis results, a 4-5 years resolution monsoon record over the past 1000 years has been established for two stalagmites from Dongge Cave, Guizhou. The high resolution oxygen isotope record serves as a proxy for variations in rainfall of Asian southwest monsoon over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. A close relation of the δ18O record with the A^14C record from tree rings largely reflects impact of centennial-scale solar activity on the monsoon climate changes. The conspicuous decrease in the δ18O value at AD 1720 indicates an abrupt increase in monsoon rainfall, suggesting that an atmospheric-oceanic couple over the tropical Indian Ocean plays an important role in rapid increase of the Northern Hemisphere temperature over the last century.     

Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago

Variations in the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth are thought to influence climate, but the extent of this influence on timescales of millennia to decades is unclear. A number of climate records show correlations between solar cycles and climate, but the absolute changes in solar intensity over the range of decades to millennia are small and the influence of solar flux on climate is not well established. The formation of stalagmites in northern Oman has recorded past northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone, whose northward migration stops near the southern shoreline of Arabia in the present climate. Here we present a high-resolution record of oxygen isotope variations, for the period from 9.6 to 6.1 kyr before present, in a Th-U-dated stalagmite from Oman. The delta18O record from the stalagmite, which serves as a proxy for variations in the tropical circulation and monsoon rainfall, allows us to make a direct comparison of the delta18O record with the Delta14C record from tree rings, which largely reflects changes in solar activity. The excellent correlation between the two records suggests that one of the primary controls on centennial- to decadal-scale changes in tropical rainfall and monsoon intensity during this time are variations in solar radiation.     

Simulated and reconstructed winter temperature in the eastern China during the last millennium

Since the 1990s, under the auspicious impetus of two international research programs, the “Past Global Changes” (PAGES) and the “Climate Variability and Pre- dictability” (CLIVAR), massive research work has been carried out on climate and environment changes over the past 2000 years[1-3]. But majority of the studies has been centered on obtaining various kinds of climatic proxy data (such as historical documents, tree rings, ice cores, lake cores) and focused on the reconstruction of…     

Global cooling in the immediate future?

New perspectives regarding the possible cooling of the Earth’s climate as a result of solar changes are reviewed in this paper. The major findings include: (1) solar activity is weakening to its very low level, which is comparable with the level in the early 20th century; (2) the current grand solar maximum has already lasted for eight 11-year solar cycles and might end in the coming one/two 11-year cycles; (3) a grand solar minimum might prevail in the next 100–200 years; and (4) the number of sunspots in the coming solar maximum (M)-year, around 2013, is an important indicator that needs to be closely monitored.     

Possible solar forcing of climate variability in the past 4000 years inferred from a proxy record at the southern margin of Tarim Basin

A ca. 4000a decadal-resolution climate proxy record of the mean grain-size from a lake (or mash) sediment at the southern margin of the Tarim Basin, correlates visually with the atmospheric 14C record from tree ring (residual △^14C, solar proxy) and the GISP2 ice core δ^18O record (temperature proxy). In general, △^14C maxima (solar minima) are coincident with cold (wet) periods in the study area and cold periods in the Greenland ice core. Power spectrum analysis revealed statistically significant periodicities of 196a, 121a, 97a, 62a, 45a and 33--30a, which are similar to those principal solar-oscillation periods as inferred from the atmospheric radiocarbon and other proxy records. Possible solar forcing is addressed to be the main driving forcing of climate change in the southern margin of Tarim Basin.     

Abrupt climate change of EastAsian Monsoon at 130 kaBP inferred from a high resolu-tion stalagmite δ18O record

^230Th ages and oxygen isotope data of a stalagmite from Shanbao Cave in Hubei Province characterize the East Asian Monsoon precipitation from 133 to 127ka. The decadal-scale high-resolution δ^18O record reveals a detailed transitional process from the Penultimate Glaciation to the Last Interglaciation. As established with ^230Th dates, the age of the Termination Ⅱ is determined to be 129.5±1.0 kaBP, which supports the Northern Hemisphere insolation as the triggers for the ice-age cycles. In our δ^18O record, the glacial/interglacial fluctuation reaches about 4‰, almost the same level as in other Asian Monsoon cave stalagmite δ^18O records. The transition of the glacial/interglacial period in our record can be recognized as four stepwise stages, among which, a rapid rise of monsoon precipitation follows the stage of “Termination Ⅱ pause”. The rapid rise is synchronous with the abrupt change of global methane concentration, which reflects that an increase in both Asian Monsoon precipitation and tropical wetland plays an important role in the global climate changes.     

“Double dawn” eclipse and the rotational variation of the earth

A record of “double dawn” at State Zheng in the first year of the reign of King Yi in Western Zhou Dynasty in the chronicle “Bamboo Annals” (Zhushu Jinian) is discussed. We think that it may be a record of an annular solar eclipse happening in 899 BC. The record and the †T, which describes the secular variation of the earth’s rotation, are analyzed and discussed.     

Changes in sea surface temperature in western South China Sea over the past 450 ka

Sea surface temperature over the past 450 ka was obtained by the unsaturation of molecular fossil-long chain alkenone with a resolution of about 1 ka from the western South China Sea. This is the longest temperature profile in the South China Sea at such high resolution. The U37^κ-SST results revealed similar glacial-interglacial cycles as the δ^18O profile of planktonic foraminifera, with SST variability of 23-25.5℃ for glacial and 25-28℃ for interglacial periods. The highest SST （28.4℃） was recorded at MIS5.5 and lowest SST （22.6℃） during MIS2. The SST record preceded the planktonic foraminiferal δ^18O on five glacial-interglacial transitions. Comparison of temperature records from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres indicated a more Southern Hemisphere-like pattern for the temperature variation in the SCS. Strong precession and semiprecession signals in the spectra of our SST record manifest the tropical phenomena.     

Twenty-five years of change in scleractinian coral communities of Daya Bay （northern South China Sea） and its response to the 2008 AD extreme cold climate event

Coral reefs worldwide are becoming increasingly and detrimentally impacted upon by a variety of factors including significant climate changes, such as global warming and increased El Nino-Southern Oscillation activity. Generally, the persistence of coral reefs, especially at low-latitudes, is governed, in part, by sea surface temperatures not exceeding the critical limit （-30℃） at which mass mortality can occur. Thus, it is thought that corals living at high-latitudes （i.e., currently cooler sea surface temperatures） will likely respond more favourably to hypothesized future temperature increases than corals living at low-latitudes （i.e., currently warmer sea surface temperatures）. Consequently, high-latitude coral communities may have the potential to act as regions of refugia for many coral species in the face of potential future global warming. The Daya Bay （22°31′--22°50′N）, northern South China Sea, contains several high-latitude non-reefal coral communities and represents one of the most northerly distributions of scleractinian corals within the region. Significantly, Daya Bay has experienced dramatic warming in both air and sea surface temperatures throughout the past 50 years. In this paper, we analyze 25 years of change in the Daya Bay coral communities, based both on historic surveys and our latest 2006--2008 regional ecological surveys. Our results suggest that, contrary to predictions, there have been significant declines in coral cover within the Daya Bay during the past 25 years （i.e., 76.6% coral cover in 1983/1984 to only 15.3% coral cover by 2008）. Such changes also reflect a significant shift in the most abundant coral species, from Acropora pruinosa to Favites abdita. Most of the modern coral communities became established between 15 and 30 years ago, corresponding to a period of increased winter sea surface temperature. However, very few colonies have become established within the last 15 years, despite a more intense period of warming. By taking into account additional factors, we hypothesize that direct anthropogenic impacts, rather than climatic events, have both restricted the development, and drove the decline, of Daya Bay coral communities in the last 15 years. The Daya Bay has also been subjected to occasional extreme cold events during the past 50 years, with the most recent occurring in early 2008 （13 January-13 February）. During the 2008 cold event, the lowest air temperature reaches only 6.6℃, and the mean sea surface temperature for February fall to 〈 14℃, including six continuous days at 12.3℃. Significantly, the sea surface temperatures fall below the hypothesized critical lower temperature threshold （-13℃） that commonly leads to mass mortality in scleractinian coral communities. Surprisingly, our coral community surveys, conducted both before （August 2007） and after （late February 2008） the extreme 2008 cold event, demonstrate that the Daya Bay coral ecosystems are barely impacted upon during the cold period. Those observations suggest that the Daya Bay scleractinian coral communities have developed adaptations to low sea surface temperatures. Overall, our data support the hypothesis that high-latitude coral communities, such as Daya Bay, have the potential to act as areas of refugia for scleractinian corals in the advent of potential future global warming.     

Tree ring based streamflow reconstruction for the Upper Yellow River over the past 1234 years

We established a Juniperus przewalski tree ring width chronology, based on tree ring cores collected from the A’nyêmaqên Mountains. Statistical analysis showed that the chronology was highly correlated with instrumental streamflow records from previous August to current July from the Tangnaihai Station in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, with a correlation coefficient of 0.656. Streamflow for the upper reaches of the Yellow River was reconstructed for the past 1234 years. Low flow periods for the 11-year averaged streamflow reconstruction were definite as lower than mean plus 1 standard deviation, and high flow periods were higher than mean minus 1 standard deviation. Over the past 1234 years, high flows occurred 18 times, and low flows occurred 12 times. The main low flow periods were identified as AD 1140–1156, AD 1295–1309, AD 1473–1500, and AD 1820–1847, and the main high flow periods were identified as AD 846–873, and AD 1375–1400. Extremely low streamflow over the reconstruction period was seen during the late 15th century, coinciding with a widespread drought phenomenon, which took place in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau over the same period. Reconstructed streamflow shows significant low-frequency variability, which is in line with drought variability of neighboring regions, as inferred from tree rings and other proxies. Multi-taper spectral analysis suggests the existence of significant periods of 2–5, 22, 35–38, 55–62, and 114–227 years, particularly significant for cyclic variations of years 159 and 36.     

Modern stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition and its implications of climatic change from a high-elevation cave in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the past 50 years

An oxygen isotope record of a stalagmite from Huanglong Cave in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau dated with 230Th and 210Pb methods provides variations of the Asian monsoon with an average resolu-tion of 1 year over the past 50 years. This study shows that the δ18O of dripwater in the cave represents the annual mean δ18O of local meteoric precipitation and the stalagmites were deposited in isotopic equilibrium. A comparison of the stalagmite δ18O record with instrumentally meteorological data indi-cates that shifts of the δ18O are largely controlled by the amount effect of meteoric precipitation con-veyed through the southwest monsoon(the Indian monsoon) and less affected by temperature. Therefore,the variations of δ18O record reflect the changes in monsoon precipitation on inter-annual time scales under the influence of the southwest monsoon. Like many other stalagmite δ18O records in the Asian monsoon regions,the δ18O record of the stalagmite from Huanglong Cave also reveals a gradually enriched trend during the past 50 years,i.e. relatively enriched in 18O. This trend may indicate the decline of the Asian monsoon intensity which is consistent with the decrease of monsoon indices. The weakening of the modern Asian monsoon well matched with the temperature changes in strato-sphere,which may illustrate that the weakening of the monsoon mainly results from the lowering of solar radiation.     

Variation of b value with hypocentral depth in Beijing area： Implications for earthquake nucleation

We relocated 2098 earthquakes that occurred in Beijing area between 1980 and 2000 using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm, and obtained the high-precision relative locations of 1825 events, b values versus depth were investigated with the relocated hypocenters. The results show that the b values decrease with the increasing hypocentral depth systematically. A dramatic variation in b is observed around the depth of 8 km. It indicates that there are more smaller earthquakes at shallow depth (0-8 km), while more larger earthquakes at greater depth (8--25 km). The physical mechanism behind this phenomenon can be explained by the variations in material heterogeneity and lithostatic stress condition. Large earthquakes are more likely to nucleate at greater depth with more homogenous material and higher lithostatic stress. On the basis of the results, we suggest that future strong earthquakes in Beijing area tend to occur below the depth of 8 km.     

Temperature variations on the Tibetan Plateau over the last two millennia

The paleoclimate data recovered from ice cores,tree rings and lake sediments indicate regional features of cfimatic change on the Tibeta n Plateau (TP) during the last 2000 years. The composite temperature reconstructions in-dicate that several main climatic episodes, such as the “LittleIce Age“ between 1400 and 1900, the “Medieval Warm Pe-riod“ in 1150-1400, a less warm period in 800-1100, and an earlier cold period between the 3rd and 5th centuries,occurred in the TP. In addition, temperature varied from region to region. The period from AD 800 to 1100, which waswarm in northeastern TP, was contemporaneous with cool-ing in the western and southern TP. The southern TP ex-perienced warming between 1150 and 1400. For western TP,the δ^18O records of the Guliya ice core indicate that the pe-Hod 1250-1500 witnessed a clear warming. Large-scaletrends in the temperature history from northeastern TP aremore similar to those in eastern China than are the trendsfrom the Guliya ice cap far to the west and southern TP. The most prominent similarities between the temperature varia-tions of the TP and eastern China are such cold phases as 1100-1150, 1500-1550, 1650-1700 and 1800-1850, andthe latter three cold events match with three widespreadg lacial advances which occurred on the TP during the Little Ice A2e.     

Analysis of the ionosphere wave-motion with GPS

The periodic solar activities strongly affect the ioniza-tion of the ionosphere. Sudden enhancements in soft and hard solar X-ray and EUV radiation during solar flare can produce an immediate increase in ionospheric ionization in various degrees at different heights; altogether, they are called sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs), which are generally recorded as sudden increase of total electron content (SITEC), the short wave fadeout (SWF), sudden frequency deviation (SFD), sudden ph…     

Timing of Holocene sea-level highstands by mass spectrometric U-series ages of a coral reef from Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

Systematic mass spectrometric 230Th ages are reported for a Porites coral reef terrace from Dengloujiao,Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea. Seven episodes of coral growth were recognized in this terrace: 7125±96, 6764±29,5826±37, 5006±54, 2543±24, 1915±15, and 1513±22 calendar years before present (cal. aBP). 50% of the coral age population fall between 7200 and 6600 cal. aBP, marking post-glacial stabdization of global sea level. Considering the facts that ( i ) Dengloujiao reef fiat was measured at 1.6-2.5m above modern tidal datum plane; (ii) modern Porites corals in the South China Sea are living at least ～1 m below the modern tidal datum plane; (iii) the top 20-30 cm of the reef was eroded; and (iv) crustal subsidence in the region since mid-Holocene was negligible, we conclude that the above age groups record at least two major periods (7200-5000 and 2500-1500 cal. aBP) of high sea-level at least 2.9-3.8 m above the present-day level.     

Southern Ocean dust-climate coupling over the past four million years

Dust has the potential to modify global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and by supplying iron and other essential limiting micronutrients to the ocean. Indeed, dust supply to the Southern Ocean increases during ice ages, and 'iron fertilization' of the subantarctic zone may have contributed up to 40?parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) of the decrease (80-100 p.p.m.v.) in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed during late Pleistocene glacial cycles. So far, however, the magnitude of Southern Ocean dust deposition in earlier times and its role in the development and evolution of Pleistocene glacial cycles have remained unclear. Here we report a high-resolution record of dust and iron supply to the Southern Ocean over the past four million years, derived from the analysis of marine sediments from ODP Site 1090, located in the Atlantic sector of the subantarctic zone. The close correspondence of our dust and iron deposition records with Antarctic ice core reconstructions of dust flux covering the past 800,000 years (refs 8, 9) indicates that both of these archives record large-scale deposition changes that should apply to most of the Southern Ocean, validating previous interpretations of the ice core data. The extension of the record beyond the interval covered by the Antarctic ice cores reveals that, in contrast to the relatively gradual intensification of glacial cycles over the past three million years, Southern Ocean dust and iron flux rose sharply at the Mid-Pleistocene climatic transition around 1.25 million years ago. This finding complements previous observations over late Pleistocene glacial cycles, providing new evidence of a tight connection between high dust input to the Southern Ocean and the emergence of the deep glaciations that characterize the past one million years of Earth history.     

The early Holocene optimum inferred from a hish-resolution pollen record of Husuansyan Maar Lake in southern China

A high-resolution pollen record of the past 13000 a from Huguangyan Maar Lake reveals the vegetation and environment changes in southern China during the Holocene. It shows that （i） pollen percentage of trees and shrubs reached 56% during the early Holocene （11600-7800 cal a BP）, of which the pollen percentage of tropical trees reached a maximum at 9500-8000 cal a BP, reflecting a hot and wet environment; （ii） during the mid-Holocene （7800-4200 cal a BP）, the pollen percentage of montane coniferous trees and herbs increased, while the percentage of tropical-subtropical trees decreased, indicating lower temperature and humidity; （iii） in the late Holocene spanning from 4200 to 350 cal a BP, the pollen percentage of herbs and montane conifer increased significantly, indicating a marked decrease of temperature and humidity. Our pollen data reveal that the time period 9500-8000 cal a BP in southern China represents a climatic optimum for the Holocene characterized by hot and wet conditions. This is consistent with the Holocene optimum found in lower latitude regions globally. We speculate that strong insolation might cause the northward migration of the ITCZ and subtropical summer monsoon front, which resulted in an early Holocene optimum in the Huguangyan area. The dry tendency and climate fluctuations of the middle and late Holocene could be associated with a decrease in solar insolation and frequent ENSO event.     

New evidence for possible impact of solar activity on long-term fluctuation of the earth rotation

The long-term fluctuation of the Schwabe period (LSP) of sunspots number (SSN) has been found to have high correlation with the variation of the length-of-day (LOD) in low frequency by using the data of smoothed monthly mean SSN during 1818–1999 and the method of wavelet transform. Analyses indicate that the maximum correlation coefficient between the series of LSP and LOD during 1892–1997 is about 0.9, with a time lag of about 5 years for the LOD related to the LSP. Though the maximum correlation coefficients between the LSP and the other two LOD series (1818–1997) reduce to about 0.4, they remain over the thresholds of 95% confidence level. This suggests new evidence for possible impact of solar activity on the long-term fluctuation of the earth rotation.     

太阳辐射变化对光伏电站最佳倾角的影响分析

从中国典型资源区选取6个一级辐射站(北京、额济纳旗、格尔木、拉萨、喀什、郑州站)1961—2016年的太阳总辐射、水平面直接辐射和散射辐射数据资料,在用气候倾向估计法分析太阳辐射的变化趋势和利用Klein-Hay模型计算分析最佳倾角的基础上,分析太阳辐射变化对光伏电站最佳倾角的影响.结果显示:(1)近56年,6个一级辐射站的太阳辐射量的总体变化趋势是下降的;除格尔木市和郑州市外,其他4个城市的水平面直接辐射量呈下降趋势;从2003年开始,北京市出现散射比大于直射比的情况;1976年后,郑州市的散射比大于直射比;格尔木、喀什、拉萨市近56年的直射比均高于散射比;额济纳旗市的直射比、散射比变化不明显. (2) 6个典型资源区一级辐射站的最佳倾角随着太阳辐射量的降低而减小;北京、喀什、拉萨市的最佳倾角的下降受总辐射量和直射比的影响;格尔木市和郑州市的最佳倾角的下降受总辐射量和散射比的影响.