System Archetype to Understand Unintended Behavior in Indian Shrimp Industry and to Aid in Strategy Development

The Indian Shrimp Industry has exhibited an interesting phenomenon of fast growth in the early nineties (1990–1994), decline in the mid-nineties (1995–1997), and slow revival in the recent years (1997–2009). The cyclic behavior of the Industry, though, was much discussed in the literature, but no explanation regarding such behavior was explicitly discussed in the literature. The strategies following such behavior were mostly ad-hoc and symptomatic in nature. In this paper, we have analyzed the Industry’s past behavior using a systems approach and have developed the structure of the Industry in the form of a system archetype, which explained the cyclic behavior of the Industry. The system archetypical structure of the Industry was made keeping the existing system archetypes as the foundation. The system archetype developed here is generic enough to explain any growth-decline-revival behavior of an industry or organization. The archetype of Indian Shrimp Industry also helped us in designing sustainable strategies for the Industry that included controlling over-expansion in a shrimp farming zone and controlling pollution generation by each shrimp farm.     

Using the Viable Systems Model to Structure a System Dynamics Mapping and Modeling Project for the Australian Taxation Office

This paper is a case study of a major System Dynamics (SD) intervention in policy design in the Australian Taxation Office. The project, which lasted two years, tested a number of hypotheses regarding the application of Stafford Beer's Viable Systems Model (VSM) to the structure and process of the project. The paper reports that the success of the VSM within the ATO was qualified by political changes in the external environment.     

在机械行业发展研究中的SD模型

通过对机械行业系统的分析，应用系统动力学的理论和方法，建立了机械行业发展研究的系统动力学模型。在行业发展研究中，利用本模型对行业系统进行模拟和超前控制，将有助于防止行业经济失误，提高宏观控制的科学性。     

X-Y式光电跟踪系统虚拟样机建模及仿真分析

结合动量定理和动量矩定理分析了X-Y式光电跟踪系统的动力学特性,建立了X-Y式光电跟踪系统的非线性模型,并用虚拟样机技术对其非线性模型进行仿真.理论分析与仿真结果表明,当X轴和Y轴均以较高的角速度或角加速度运动时,因非线性关系所导致的扰动力矩会严重影响系统的跟踪精度,当X-Y式光电跟踪系统的X轴相对其各惯性主轴的转动惯量相等时,可彻底解决X轴与Y轴之间的运动偶合关系.     

利用“SD”仿真模型分析综采工作面生产系统

利用系统动力学理论,对影响综采工作面生产的主要因素进行因果关系分析,并在此基础上建立起综采工作面生产系统的“ＳＤ”仿真模型,以实现综采工作面生产系统的模拟分析.     

SD流率基本入树建模法

围绕动态信息反馈系统的关键变量流率,通过引入流率基本入树、嵌运算、流率派生入树、可增广流率派生入树等概念,得出一种建立动态反馈结构模型的ＳＤ流率基本入树建模法。此方法同时具有规范法建模与给出全部反馈环两种功能。这对规范化建模、反馈分析、调试、结果分析都有意义。     

城市产业规模分布及结构分析——以广东省为例

研究城市产业的规模分布,提出产业结构分析的新途径.首先,将广东省内各城市的产业看成一个具有层级结构的城市产业系统,探讨了第1层省内城市产业群的规模分布、第2层广州市内产业的规模分布、第3层广州等市软件产业内企业的规模分布,发现它们都是幂率分布; 然后, 比较各层幂率指数的差异反映出的该城市产业系统结构的特点; 最后,论述这个新指标尤其是其为幂率分布时的理论意义,并指出了规模分布的普适性.     

网构软件信任机制的系统动力学模型研究

结合人际信任关系建立的基本原理,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,提出了网构软件信任机制的系统动力学模型,并基于系统动力学思想分析了影响网构软件信任水平的相关因素,建立了知识积累与信任评估的动力学方程。Vensim PLE仿真实验表明,网构软件信任系统动力学模型的建立有利于网络信任环境的分析,为系统仿真提供了有价值的新思路。     

System Dynamics Urban Sustainability Model for Puerto Aura in Puebla, Mexico

This paper reports on an on-going project on urban sustainability, the Puerto Aura in the region of the Valsequillo Lake in Puebla, Mexico. As part of the project, a simulation model was built to explore the dynamic interaction of the dimensions inherent in sustainable urban development. After reviewing literature on sustainable urban development (SUD) frameworks and tools, we identify key variables that intervene in SUD. We propose a System Dynamics model to simulate the dimensions that intervene in a sustainable development and to anticipate the consequences of the decision making process. The structure and inter-relationships of four sectors in the proposed model are described, the sustainability indicators in each sector explained. Preliminary conclusions are drawn stating that a complete run of the model simulating a 20 years horizon in monthly periods is expected when the full data from the Puerto Aura master plan becomes available.

短生命周期产品运营的系统动力学仿真优化

应用系统动力学对短生命周期产品的生产运作进行建模与仿真,并在此基础上实现优化。此类问题分析的复杂性源于系统各要素之间存在复杂的相互作用,并在较短的产品生命周期内作用更加明显。而传统的数学建模方法因难以清晰、简洁地描述出这些非线性关系而不能被应用于此类问题的研究。因此,建立了短生命周期产品生产运作的系统动力学模型,通过仿真来实现系统运行绩效的优化。模型中不仅模拟了产品有限生命周期内的需求变化,还考虑了劳动力资源对产品生产、顾客满意度对产品需求的影响等诸多现实问题。最后,通过对一个具有代表性的短生命周期产品的运作仿真,演示了在仿真数据的分析基础上对系统参数实现了优化。     

一种解决无约束非线性最优化问题的SD模型

根据解决无约束非线性最优化问题的传统解析思路 ,创建了用于解决该问题的系统动力学( SD)模型 ,将 SD的优势应用于该问题的解决 ,取得了比传统方法更理想的结果。同时 ,提出了 SD流图中通用记忆环节的概念 ,并使其模块化。然后 ,从理论上说明了 SD模型用于解决无约束非线性最优化问题的有效性。最后 ,通过一个具体的无约束非线性最优化的实例 ,验证了用于解决该问题的 SD模型和提出的记忆环节的正确性和科学性     

基于T-S模糊模型的临界混沌系统复杂动力学分析

针对新近提出的临界混沌系统,在其相应的Takagi-Sugeno(T-S)模糊模型基础上,通过给每个模糊规则后件施加一类扰动并调节这些扰动,深入研究了该混沌系统的复杂动力学特性.仿真结果表明:除了具有已经发现的由镜相形成机制所决定的复合结构外,该混沌系统仍然具有尚未发现的由压缩和拉伸形成机制所决定的其他复杂动力学行为.     

基于系统动力学的车辆追尾事故仿真分析模型

利用系统动力学理论构建了车辆追尾事故的仿真分析模型.该模型充分考虑了驾驶员的信息处理过程,反映了从感知信息到反应动作的时间延迟,跟驰车辆可以根据前车车速变化、自身的期望车距对自身车速和车距进行调整,利用前后两车车速比、实际车距与安全车距比计算追尾事故发生风险.最后以驾驶员感知反应时间为例,对不同感知反应时间下的追尾事故风险进行了仿真分析.该模型提供了一种道路交通事故致因的机理分析方法.     

Facilitating Trust Building in Networks: A Study from the Water Technology Industry

This paper analyses how action researchers can facilitate trust building processes in inter-firm networks and develops a framework for network development. A longitudinal case study of developing a regional network of water technology SMEs constitutes the empirical base. The paper argues that researchers can directly facilitate processes with a capacity to build two types of trust in different phases of network development, both characteristic-based and process-based trust. The findings indicate that processes to build characteristic-based trust can be facilitated through dialogue processes in temporary groups at network meetings. Processes to build process-based trust are stimulated by practical inter-firm teamwork. Furthermore, there seems to be a mutually reinforcing relationship between these two forms of trust formation, which can be influenced by action researchers. When the level of trust has reached a point of critical mass, new-coming firms seem to jump quickly through characteristic-based trust towards a relatively high level of process-based trust.     

灰色系统建模中应注意的一个问题

根据灰色GM(1,1)模型(grey-model)的建模机理和条件,数据具有准光滑性是建模的重要条件,经常通过累加生成使数据具有准指数规律。但对数据本身具有准指数规律,进一步累加生成可能会破坏其指数规律。为此在建立灰色模型中,应先对数据进行准指数规律的判断;如果数据本身具有准指数规律,应该按照直接数据灰色模型的建模方法。这样有利于克服建模中的盲目性,并且对具有准指数规律的数据序列用直接数据灰色GM(1,1)模型的建模方法能够获得较高的精度,验证了它的有效性。     

Participatory Model Construction and Model Use in Natural Resource Management: a Framework for Reflection

In this article we propose a framework which can assist analysts in their reflection on the requirements for a participatory modelling exercise in natural resource management. Firstly, we distinguish different types of formal models which may be developed, ranging from models that focus on (bio)physical mechanisms to models which also include the actors involved in the utilisation of the resource and the social mechanisms that co-determine actor behaviour. Secondly, we consider what different modes of stakeholder participation entail for model construction and use. Finally, we propose six different purposes for a modelling exercise (clarify arguments and values, research and analyse, design and recommend, provide strategic advice, mediate, and democratise), and highlight conditions that affect the appropriateness of stakeholder participation for each purpose. The framework does not provide a straightforward recipe for the selection of participatory modelling methods, but we expect that the systematic reflection it affords will help analysts to make appropriate choices while designing a modelling exercise.     

滇池流域可持续发展投入产出系统动力学模型

根据包含了污染排放及治理、水资源使用等数据的昆明市环境保护投入产出表 ,建立了一个系统动力学模型 ,该模型可用来仿真滇池流域环境经济的相互影响关系及发展规律 ,结合经济、环境、资源管理者的经验 ,通过反复模拟寻求合理的发展及污染治理水平 .所得结论有助于制订“十五”期间滇池流域可持续发展规划 .     

舰艇编队物资海上分段补给的系统动力学模型

为解决对大型载机舰艇编队远洋作战训练时所需的物资补给方案科学制订问题,对海上分段补给进行研究.采用系统动力学方法,构建影响补给船补给效率的各元素因果回路图与存量流量图,建立了补给船对舰艇编队物资进行分段补给的系统动力学模型,并利用Vensim PLE软件仿真.仿真运行结果表明:该模型在扰动条件下能够进行物资补给趋势的预测,为补给船补给方案的制定提供理论依据与技术基础.     

一个典型C~3I系统的微分方程作战模型的建立

本文针对目前C~3I系统建模研究遇到的难题:如何把C~3I系统的组成内容与它所处的战争环境结合起来,运用复杂系统的一些建模方法、基于问题导向的原则,提出了一套战争环境下C~3I系统建模的规范化建模方法,使C~3I系统与军方常用于描述作战的Lanchester型格斗方程有机地结合起来,形成C~3I系统的作战方程。文中以一个典型的防空作战的C~3I想定进行了具体的计算,建立了该想定的微分方程模型。结果表明,这种方法解决了C~3I系统与Lanchester方程的结合问题,从而使C~3I系统本身的各个组成部分能在模型中与作战环境有机地结合起来。