On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models

A forecasting model for y_t based on its relationship to exogenous variables (e.g. x?_t) must use x?_t, the forecast of x?_t. An example is given where commercially available x?_t's are sufficiently inaccurate that a univariate model for y_t appears preferable. For a variety of types of models inclusion of an exogenous variable x?_t is shown to worsen the y_t forecasts whenever x?_t must itself be forecast by x?_t and MSE (x?_t) > Var (x?_t). Tests with forecasts from a variety of sources indicate that, with a few notable exceptions, MSE (x?_t) > Var (x?_t) is common for macroeconomic forecasts more than a quarter or two ahead. Thus, either:

• (a) available medium range forecasts for many macroeconomic variables (e.g. the GNP growth rate) are not an improvement over the sample mean (so that such variables are not useful explanatory variables in forecasting models), and/or
• (b) the suboptimization involved in directly replacing x?_t by x?_t is a luxury that we cannot afford.

     

Hydrogen peroxide protects tobacco from oxidative stress by inducing a set of antioxidant enzymes

Tolerance against oxidative stress generated by high light intensities or the catalase inhibitor aminotriazole (AT) was induced in intact tobacco plants by spraying them with hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂). Stress tolerance was concomitant with an enhanced antioxidant status as reflected by higher activity and/or protein levels of catalase, ascorbate peroxidase, guaiacol peroxidases, and glutathione peroxidase, as well as an increased glutathione pool. The induced stress tolerance was dependent on the dose of H₂O₂ applied. Moderate doses of H₂O₂ enhanced the antioxidant status and induced stress tolerance, while higher concentrations caused oxidative stress and symptoms resembling a hypersensitive response. In stress-tolerant plants, induction of catalase was 1.5-fold, that of ascorbate peroxidase and glutathione peroxidase was 2-fold, and that of guaiacol peroxidases was approximately 3-fold. Stress resistance was monitored by measuring levels of malondialdehyde, an indicator of lipid peroxidation. The levels of malondialdehyde in all H₂O₂-treated plants exposed to subsequent high light or AT stress were similar to those of unstressed plants, whereas lipid peroxidation in H₂O₂-untreated plants stressed with either high light or AT was 1.5- or 2-fold higher, respectively. Although all stress factors caused increases in the levels of reduced glutathione, its levels were much higher in all H₂O₂-pretreated plants. Moreover, significant accumulation of oxidized glutathione was observed only in plants that were not pretreated with H₂O₂. Extending the AT stress period from 1 to 7 days resulted in death of tobacco plants that were not pretreated with H₂O₂, while all H₂O₂-pretreated plants remained little affected by the prolonged treatment. Thus, activation of the plant antioxidant system by H₂O₂ plays an important role in the induced tolerance against oxidative stress. Received 11 December 2001; received after revision 25 January 2002; accepted 4 February 2002     

Effect of prostaglandins on skin tumorigenesis

Summary Concomitant administration of prostaglandins E₂ (PGE₂) and F₂ a(PGF₂ a) with a carcinogen, 3-methylcholanthrene (MCA) to mice for 2 months markedly enhanced the occurrence of squamous cell carcinomas. Only epidermal cell hyperplasia occurred in mice treated with MCA alone by that time. Radioactivity measurements and electron microscopic autoradiography revealed that prostaglandins stimulate DNA, RNA and protein synthesis in neoplastic cells. These findings indicate that PGE₂ and PGF₂ a can act as cocarcinogens on skin tumorigenesis.     

Protease-activated-receptor-2 affects protease-activated-receptor-1-driven breast cancer

Mammalian protease-activated-receptor-1 and -2 (PAR₁ and PAR₂) are activated by proteases found in the flexible microenvironment of a tumor and play a central role in breast cancer. We propose in the present study that PAR₁ and PAR₂ act together as a functional unit during malignant and physiological invasion processes. This notion is supported by assessing pro-tumor functions in the presence of short hairpin; shRNA knocked-down hPar2 or by the use of a truncated PAR₂ devoid of the entire cytoplasmic tail. Silencing of hPar2 by shRNA-attenuated thrombin induced PAR₁ signaling as recapitulated by inhibiting the assembly of Etk/Bmx or Akt onto PAR₁-C-tail, by thrombin-instigated colony formation and invasion. Strikingly, shRNA-hPar2 also inhibited the TFLLRN selective PAR₁ pro-tumor functions. In addition, while evaluating the physiological invasion process of placenta extravillous trophoblast (EVT) organ culture, we observed inhibition of both thrombin or the selective PAR₁ ligand; TFLLRNPNDK induced EVT invasion by shRNA-hPar2 but not by scrambled shRNA-hPar2. In parallel, when a truncated PAR₂ was utilized in a xenograft mouse model, it inhibited PAR₁–PAR₂-driven tumor growth in vivo. Similarly, it also attenuated the interaction of Etk/Bmx with the PAR₁-C-tail in vitro and decreased markedly selective PAR₁-induced Matrigel invasion. Confocal images demonstrated co-localization of PAR₁ and PAR₂ in HEK293T cells over-expressing YFP-hPar2 and HA-hPar1. Co-immuno-precipitation analyses revealed PAR₁-PAR₂ complex formation but no PAR₁-CXCR4 complex was formed. Taken together, our observations show that PAR₁ and PAR₂ act as a functional unit in tumor development and placenta-uterus interactions. This conclusion may have significant consequences on future breast cancer therapeutic modalities and improved late pregnancy outcome.     

Zur Konstitution von Helvolinsäure und Cephalosporin P1

Summary On the basis of nuclear magnetic resonance measurements and in agreement with recently reported mass-spectrometric investigations it is shown that the molecular formulae of Helvolic acid and Cephalosporin P₁ must be revised to C₃₃H₄₄O₈ and C₃₃H₅₀O₈ respectively, and that the additional carbon atom is present as an angular methyl group.A comparison with the data obtained with fusidic acid points to a similarity among the three substances which is closer than hitherto suspected.     

Developmental changes of aldehyde dehydrogenase isozymes in human livers: Mitochondrial ALDH2 isozyme is expressed in fetal livers

Summary Previous reports suggested that the major cytosolic aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH₁) was present in fetal and infant livers, but the major mitochondrial isozyme (ALDH₂) was absent or severely diminished. Re-examination by means of starch gel electrophoresis followed by enzyme activity staining, and by means of dot blot immuno-hybridization of liver samples with known genotypes of theALDH ₂ locus, indicated that bothALDH ₁ andALDH ₂ genes are expressed in fetal and infant livers. In addition, ALDH₄ isozyme was also observed. The results imply that a fetus with the usual homozygousALDH ₂ ¹ /ALDH ₂ ¹ genotype, but not one with the atypicalALDH ₂ ¹ /ALDH ₂ ² orALDH ₂ ² /ALDH ₂ ² , is capable of detoxifying acetaldehyde transferred from the mother.     

Autophagic activity in cortical neurons under acute oxidative stress directly contributes to cell death

Primary neurons undergo insult-dependent programmed cell death. We examined autophagy as a process contributing to cell death in cortical neurons after treatment with either hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) or staurosporine. Although caspase-9 activation and cleavage of procaspase-3 were significant following staurosporine treatment, neither was observed following H₂O₂ treatment, indicating a non-apoptotic death. Autophagic activity increased rapidly with H₂O₂, but slowly with staurosporine, as quantified by processing of endogenous LC3. Autophagic induction by both stressors increased the abundance of fluorescent puncta formed by GFP-LC3, which could be blocked by 3-methyladenine. Significantly, such inhibition of autophagy blocked cell death induced by H₂O₂ but not staurosporine. Suppression of Atg7 inhibited cell death by H₂O₂, but not staurosporine, whereas suppression of Beclin 1 prevented cell death by both treatments, suggesting it has a complex role regulating both apoptosis and autophagy. We conclude that autophagic mechanisms are activated in an insult-dependent manner and that H₂O₂ induces autophagic cell death.     

Changes in the T4/T3 molar ratio following thyrotrophin releasing hormone injection in cattle

Summary The injection of thyrotropin releasing hormone into cattle resulted in a rapid decrease in the T₄/T₃ molar ratio. 2 breeds of cattle, Shorthorn and Africander Cross were studied. The decrease in the T₄/T₃ molar ratio was significantly greater in the Shorthorn breed. It is concluded that acute stimulation of the thyroid gland with TRH results in enhanced release of both T₃ and T₄ and that T₃ is discharged more rapidly than T₄.     

IgG purification to measure the level of an iodinated thyroglobulin peptide,the 3,5,3′,5′ tetraiodo-l-tyrosyl-l-tyrosine in human serum

Summary Antibodies reacting with 3,5,3,5 tetraiodo-l-tyrosyl-l-tyrosine (I₂Tyr-I₂Tyr) were elicited in rabbits by immunization with an oxidized yeast conjugate coupled with I₂Tyr-I₂Tyr. Ion-exchange chromatography was used to purify immunoglobulins, in order to improve the specificity in measurement of I₂Tyr-I₂Tyr level in patient serum. IgG binding capacity versus I₂Tyr-I₂Tyr was considerably increased after immunoglobulin purification.Acknowledgments. The authors with to thank Mrs M. Ollier for her valuable technical assistance.